Offseason Worries

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins have played the free agency game quite well in recent years as evidenced by their in season success. This offseason is already looking a bit different however, and it may take some aggressiveness to come out successfully on the other side.2020 was the weirdest season of baseball we’ve ever seen and it’s led into what may be one of the weirder offseasons. So many questions remain including whether the NL will again adopt the DH and how many games will be played in the regular season. Unfortunately as players search for jobs and teams look to fill their openings, the uncertainties are clearly slowing the market. One change teams are expecting to see however is the expanded playoff format, and this expectation may be having early effects on the market that the Twins should keep an eye on.

 

The Royals paid decently for Carlos Santana and Mike Minor, both of whom were discussed as fallback options for the Twins. The Giants signed Anthony Desclefani, a Statcast star in 2019 fallen on hard times in 2020. He looked to be a perfect example of a possible Twins pickup. The Mariners picked up recently DFAed Keynan Middleton, a hard throwing high spin reliever coming off of Tommy John. While not top tier free agents, all of these players were intriguing in their own way and would have slotted in nicely as complementary pieces on contenders.

 

All of these players however went to teams who missed the playoffs in 2020, something that we may see more and more. More playoff spots means the bar to clear for October has gotten a bit lower. Teams that aren’t surefire contenders may be spending more money to give themselves that extra push to bring their fanbase more excitement as well as the income added of making it to the playoffs.

 

While good for baseball, this new development may be bad for the Twins. This year they have a ton of needs including a few starting pitchers, a utilityman and multiple high leverage bullpen pieces. They also seem to be in the same staredown as the rest of the obvious contenders are with free agents, as they’ve done little to make impact acquisitions. Meanwhile some nice options have surprisingly gone to teams who never would have considered such signings in years past.

 

The Twins likely have their targets they want to bring in this winter, but this front office has a price point in mind where they’re more than willing to pivot to other options. The market for those other options however could be more shallow than it has been in recent years, and the free agent market could explode so quickly that the Twins could miss out on effectively filling their many needs.

 

It’s still earlyish in the offseason and there’s certainly plenty of talent left to bring in. That being said, it’s not just one or two spots the Twins need to fill. This front office has always “zigged” while others have “zagged”. Doing so now by breaking the apparent stalemate between teams and free agents gives them their pick of the free agent market and eliminates the risk of running out of backup options later this winter. The small premium they may pay in doing so should be worthwhile for a team in the middle of a competitive window.

 

The early moves we’ve seen by apparent non contenders may not hold up throughout all of free agency. That being said, with expanded playoffs this assumption becomes a bit of a gamble for a competing team with roster spots to fill. Obviously everybody wants to see the Twins make some notable moves, but should we be more concerned with the lack of free agent signings so far?

 

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[mikelink45]

Cody, relax.  New Years is still 12 days away.  Spring training - who knows.  It is fun to speculate, it is fun to predict, but lets not get too upset - yet. 

[Brandon]

Plus we have some prospects likely to be ready this year. So I am not too worried. Minnesota is a good destination for free agents who want a legit chance to win. We need a middle IF, a starting pitcher, and some relievers. We have in house bullpen options, OFs and DH if we don't sign Cruz and to replace Rosario. We have Jeffers for back up C. So we still need a Starting Pitcher, a bullpen arm or 2, and an IF either SS or utility player. And thats it. Cruz is just a preferred option.

[Doctor Gast]

Contrary to you Cody, I`m very optimistic this year, much more than last year. We have a ton of viable options & I'm sure FO is heading in the right direction. They are only weighing & waiting to get the maximum talent w/ what we got to spend. Lot hinges on Cruz on what we have to spend 

[specialiststeve]

Respectfully Cody you are WAY off course. 

 

We actually have very little need at this point as the only real concern on the offense is the DH and if need can fill from within... 

 

As far as pitching we have 3/5 starter pretty set. Dobnak is the 4th and have a slew of arms right on the cusp of being ready. Have plenty of arms for the bullpen also. 

 

With that being said there are literally hundreds of FA that we will have a shot at so be worried... not at all ... instead am VERY confident that we are doing just what we should be doing... waiting and making some minor league invites. We will have several nice signings after the first when players will be looking to find a home. 

[High heat]

No one has signed this off-season, no top team has jumped on guys unless you had a multi billionaire buy the team in the last months.

The few signing that have happened have been with players who might miss the boat and later in offseason might have had to take a minor league deal.

I think there is zero $ floating around this year with the unknown of spring training, a full season and fabless stadium and good players are worried about going jobless in 2021.

I think this trend of very few signing continues until clarity of how the 2021 season plays out. Possibly by mid February we see a run on solid mlb players taking 1 year deals

[prouster]

Have they settled on the expanded playoff format for 2021? I was under the impression that it’s still not totally certain.

[Finlander]

I think they will look at trade options early on rather than only dealing with free agents to fill spots. For instance, Reds seem to be listening to offers for Castillo. Cincy wouldn't move him unless a larger contract is attached. Maybe Moose fits in MN to protect 2B and 3B and be a rotational DH to balance the inexperience of the rookies coming up if Cruz isn't signed. And I do like the idea of a DH that is capable of playing in the field. Meanwhile, Castillo is a dominating top of rotation guy with 3 years of affordable control - a rare opportunity and just what we need. It would cost a bit, even after being stuck with the Moose contract. But the farm is pretty deep in spots. And Moose has the perfect nickname for Minnesota..

[ashbury]

And Moose has the perfect nickname for Minnesota..

There was even a squirrel at Target Field a year or two ago (and of course one who lives here at TD now).