A "Way Too Early" Projection of the 2021 AL Central

[David Youngs]

The winter meetings have come and gone, yet the MLB offseason remains young. And while the Twins have stayed fairly passive, other AL Central foes have not. Take your mind off the snow and let’s take a premature look at how the 2021 AL Central will play out.In a recent interview with MLB Network, Kansas City Royals skipper Mike Matheny voiced that he believes his team can make a run for a division title this upcoming season. Meanwhile, the White Sox have scalded the division’s hot stove by making aggressive moves at the winter meetings. There’s no telling what other shaking and baking will occur in the AL Central in months to come.

 

The bottom line? The Twins have a target on their backs and there isn’t a clear number one in the division. I’m not a betting man (well, that may be a lie), but if I were to look into a crystal ball and predict the results of the AL Central this upcoming season, here’s how it would look.

 

5th Place: Detroit Tigers

2020 Record: 23-35 (5th Place)

2021 Projection: 65-97

It’s an exciting time to be a Detroit Tigers fan! No, the team doesn’t look like a division contender but the crowned jewel of their offseason was the hiring of manager A.J. Hinch. Coming off one of the more noteworthy scandals in baseball history, Hinch has paid his dues and is ready to rebuild a franchise that has not seen a winning season since 2016. Hinch has proved that he can flip a franchise around. Cheating aside, the Waverly, Iowa native shaped a disgraceful Astros franchise into a perennial contender while in Houston.

 

Things aren’t quite as promising on the actual field for the Tigers. The recent acquisition of Akil Baddoo through the Rule 5 draft opened the eyes of Twins fans. While talented, Baddoo has a few years until he hits his stride and the Tigers are lacking standout talent in their current starting lineup. Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Jemeir Candelario have the potential to craft solid major league careers alongside a wealth of other young Tigers. Hinch is the perfect fit to develop this crop of players, it just may take a few years.

 

4th Place: Cleveland Baseball Team

2020 Record: 35-25 (2nd place, postseason birth)

2021 Projection: 78-83

This one may come as a surprise to some. Yes, Cleveland is home to the reigning AL Cy Young winner Shane Biber and all-around superstars like Francisco Lindor and José Ramírez. However, the winds of change may be headed to Cleveland after a nice stretch of successful teams.

 

It’s unlikely that Lindor will be the starting shortstop for Cleveland come Opening Day. It’s unclear who Cleveland could acquire in a Lindor trade but even if it’s a slugger, the team has some major work to do at the plate. Cleveland finished 2020 with a team batting average (AVG) of .228 and on-base percentage (OPS) of .317, 23rd and 19th in the league respectively.

 

José Ramírez has emerged as a star at the plate but unless the front office brings in more bats things could go downhill. After losing Mike Clevinger to the Padres, Cleveland’s rotation shifted from great to just good. Carlos Carrasco, Zac Plesac, and Aaron Civale are all solid contributors to a Bieber-powered rotation, but you can only do so much if your team can’t hit, especially in a 162 game season.

 

3rd Place: Kansas City Royals

2020 Record: 26-34 (4th Place)

2021 Projection: 82-80

 

Download attachment: USATSI_14991663.jpg Courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

 

As stated earlier, Royals manager Mike Matheny recently voiced his confidence in his 2021 squad’s chance of making a division title run. I wouldn’t go that far, but I admire Matheny for the confidence he has in a team that is clearly on the rise.

 

Kansas City’s big offseason move (so far) was the acquisition of free-agent 1B/DH Carlos Santana, who has flirted with being a top-tier hitter throughout his career. Matheny will likely put Santana at first, moving Jorge Soler to DH and Hunter Dozier to third.

 

The Royals proved to be an Achilles for the Twins in 2020 thanks to strong offense from players like Soler, Dozier, and Whit Merrifield. Pitching will make or break Kansas City in 2021. Getting LHP Mike Minor was arguably as big for the Royals as getting Santana. Add him to a rotation with Danny Duffy and young arm Brad Keller and Kansas City might have something going for them. Don’t be surprised if the Royals gun for a James Paxton-like arm to complete their rotation.

 

Download attachment: USATSI_14989283.jpg Image courtesy of Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

 

Runner Up: Chicago White Sox

2020 Record: 35-25 (3rd place, playoff birth)

2021 Projection: 93-69

The end of the 2020 regular season was a complete train wreck for the Southsiders. If not for a horrid 1-6 skid to finish the season, Chicago likely would have won the Central and would still be under the helm of 2020 AL Manager of the Year Rick Renteria. Yet with the hire of Tony LaRussa and the acquisitions of RHP Lance Lynn and OF Adam Engel, it’s clear that the White Sox are out for blood.

 

The White Sox will bring back almost every valuable component of their 2020 squad, including Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal, Luis Ramirez, and Jose Abreu. While James McCann is headed to New York, the White Sox arguably have the best offense in the AL Central.

 

Even though the addition of Lynn is a plus for Chicago’s rotation, it may not be the icing needed to secure the division. Lynn has been rock-solid every season for every single team he’s ever played on, except the Twins. His infamous 2018 bout with Minnesota could prove beneficial for the Twins when Lynn comes to town. And while Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel are a stellar 1-2 punch, the 2020 Twins performed as well as anyone against the tandem, going 3-2 in games that Giolito and Keuchel started.

 

The gravest danger for the Sox is that their rotation drops off heavily after their top three pitchers. Dane Dunning is gone and the bottom of the rotation will have to rely on names like Dylan Cease, Reynaldo López, Michael Kopech, and Carlos Ródon. Their top three could pitch overload when September rolls around, but a subpar bullpen and lack of depth could hurt the White Sox in the end.

 

AL Central Champions: Minnesota Twins

2020 Record: 36-24 (AL Central Champions, playoff birth)

2021 Projection: 99-63

As Michael Scott would say, “Oh the turn-tables!” Coming off a franchise year at the plate in 2019, the Twins relied heavily on pitching and struggled at the plate in 2020. It’s likely that the offense would have improved if 2020 were a regular-season but the biggest takeaway was clear: The Twins can pitch.

 

2021 will look different for the Twins pitching staff. Holes in the bullpen will need to be filled given the absence of Trevor May, Sergio Romo, and Matt Wisler. Yet the Twins have the chance to boast one of, if not the strongest starting rotation in the American League. Kenta Maeda, José Berríos, and Michael Pineda already lock down a strong top three. If the Twins chose to re-sign him, a healthy Jake Odorizzi and free agent/trade target would make the Twins staff a force to be reckoned with.

 

While 2020 lifted many concerns on the team’s offense, fans shouldn’t lose sleep over it. The offense absolutely “underperformed” at the plate in 2020, posting an even lower batting average (.242) than they did in their abysmal 2016 season (.252). Here’s some medicine to calm your worries.

• 2020 was only 60 games
• Josh Donaldson was injured for a majority of the year and Jorge Polanco was clearly not himself following his 2020 offseason ankle surgery
• The reason many are worried about the offense is due to the fact that the Twins have such high potential at the plate. No, everything isn’t going to be perfect and the Twins likely aren’t going to hit .270 each year as they did in 2019. Yet it can be expected that the Twins will hit their stride at the plate in a longer, more normal 2021 season.

The Twins won 101 games in 2019. That likely won’t happen in 2021. The AL Central is becoming an increasingly tight division with the White Sox and Royals improving over the offseason. If the Twins pitching is similar to what it was last year and the offense can even just slightly improve from 2020, the Minnesota Twins could have the opportunity to clinch their third straight AL Central title.

 

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[denarded]

Don't know if I agree putting Twins on top. Sox hitting will be best in MLB and their pitching is at least as good as ours hopes to be. Hope I'm wrong. Thanks for the article

[ScrapTheNickname]

Twins #2 all the way.

[sdangus]

Twins aren't done with their offseason so this is pretty premature.

 

I think bot the Twins and White Sox will add more pieces. Maybe even KC and Detroit.

[mikelink45]

David you have too much time, too little to do.  Come up north, I have a couple extra chain saws.  We can thin the forest, get some fresh air, and let the winter settle in before going crazy with Twins wins predictions. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Oh...

 

With a headline like way too early projection, i was hoping for something like realignment in 2050 following homoginization of rules where the Central loses Detroit and Cleveland, but gains St. Loius and Denver, and becomes the plains division, making our division great again.

 

But i got no problem enthusiastically looking forward to next season. Am glad to keep the target on our backs as well as our field.

[David Youngs]

Mike, you're not wrong! If you've got an ice house I'm in! Not a whole lot of lakes in south-central Minnesota.

David you have too much time, too little to do.  Come up north, I have a couple extra chain saws.  We can thin the forest, get some fresh air, and let the winter settle in before going crazy with Twins wins predictions. 

 

[DocBauer]

Twins aren't done with their offseason so this is pretty premature.

 

I think bot the Twins and White Sox will add more pieces. Maybe even KC and Detroit.

 

This.

 

I understand it is a "way too early projection" OP. I get it. It's an attempt to examine the NOW that leads to speculation and projection TOMORROW with reflection.

 

But it really is way too early. The Dirty Sox have made a couple nice moves. The Twins haven't made a SINGLE one yet of any significance. But I would still put the Twins #1 at this point. You still have to do it on the field. In order to be the best, you have to beat the best.

 

Now, someone a little more tech savy than me cue up a Rick Flair GIF. You out there Ash? LOL

[bobs]

 

Mike, you're not wrong! If you've got an ice house I'm in! Not a whole lot of lakes in south-central Minnesota.

Or good ice at this point....

[ashbury]

But I would still put the Twins #1 at this point. You still have to do it on the field. In order to be the best, you have to beat the best.

You forgot to say my name 3 times to make me appear, but I'll post one for ya anyway.

 

 

[ScooterDance]

I mean. It’s a way too early. They do this the day after the season. So anyone complaining seems silly.

 

Agree with the take, generally. The twins had the most prolific Hr offense ever two years ago and added Donaldson. No guaranteeing the Sox success from last year is guaranteed. I like our squad and like what I’m hearing about being big players.