3 Reasons to Believe in a Mitch Garver Rebound

[Nash Walker]

After hitting the most home runs by a catcher with less than 100 games played in 2019, Mitch Garver flopped at the plate in a limited 2020 sample. By some prominent data, though, his approach actually improved.1. He chased less balls

 

Garver was already excellent at laying off, chasing only 17.4% of pitches in 2019. That number dropped to a stellar 16.1% in 2020. Part of that is his overall passiveness in the shortened season. Garver swung at only 6.2% of first pitches, down 14.5% from his world-beating 2019 campaign. This suggests he never quite had his timing right. The plate discipline remains elite as he enters 2021.

 

There was a belief that pitchers had adjusted to Garver. That really isn’t the case. He saw the exact same % of pitches in the zone over the last two years (48.3%). Pitchers threw him an almost equal amount of fastballs, actually slightly more. The problem was Garver’s contact rate. His ability to make contact on pitches in the zone dropped 14.6%. Stunningly, even though he barely chases, his contact rate on those pitches dropped nearly 25%. Those two numbers, in-zone contact rate and chase-contact rate, are usually positively correlated.

 

2. He still bopped with authority

 

Garver’s fly-ball rate plummeted over 13% from 2019. More encouragingly, his average exit velocity jumped up to 92.4 mph, which would’ve ranked in the 91st percentile had he accumulated enough batted ball data to qualify. His hard-hit rate remained elite at 50%, which again would’ve placed him in the top 10% of the league.

 

Garver’s average launch angle dug deeper into the “barrel zone” at 19 degrees. His swing was dialed to replicate 2019 in seemingly every way. He just couldn’t catch and size up pitches and consistently find his groove.

 

3. He continued to whoop lefties

 

Analyzing platoon data after 81 plate appearances is the epitome of small sample size. We’ll do it anyway. Garver, amid all of his whiffing and lack of production, found a way to punish southpaws. He hit .304/.385/.435 off lefties, solidifying Rocco Baldelli’s confidence in him in those matchups, even when he’s struggling mightily.

 

This, however small the sample, is an important development for 2021 with Ryan Jeffers emerging as one of the better young catchers in the game. Having two right-handed catchers isn’t ideal, but Garver has shown that he should be starting every time a left-handed starting pitcher is on the mound.

 

A (hopefully) full spring training and (hopefully) more clarity on the schedule should help Garver regain his timing again in 2021.

 

 

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[h2oface]

Other than an injury prone bizarre COVID season, Garver has done nothing but work his ass off and improve. He was rated below Turner, and has had massive sceptics even as he rose, until they could only embrace him in 2019, as he was not to be denied. That let them easily willing to sellout on him in 2020. I bet he is back with a vengence in 2021.

[Doctor Gast]

Many MLB hitters couldn't find their groove in 2020, including most of the Twins. I too             believe                      that  2021 will be friendlier to Twins hitting. yeah it seems like many Twins fans are hesitant to jump on the band wagon & quick to jump off

[jmlease1]

I think it's fair to be concerned that Garver's 2019 had something to do with the juiced ball they were using. He was so much better at age 28 than in any other MLB season that it's fair to consider that it may have been a fluke year.

 

It's great that there are some advanced stats to show that the great hitter might still be in there, and I'm reluctant to put too much stock in anything from the short COVID season, especially when a lot of hitters struggled...but the concern is real.

 

Now, even if he hits more like 2018 if he defends like 2019-2020 he's still a very solid catcher and contributor for the team. I think he'll bounce back...I just don't know how high the rebound will be.

[Shaitan]

I'm glad we had a mini-season last year, but I'm evaluating very few players on what happened during.

[Trov]

It is hard to say what Garver did last year is what to expect, just as it is hard to say what he did 2019 is what to expect.  If he can start hitting the fastball again he should be fine. 

 

The article says he faced same amount of fastballs, but I am wondering if he saw them at same counts.  What I mean is did he see same first pitch fastballs?  It says he took first pitch much more often, but was that because he was taking fastballs or they were off-speed pitches?  Garver was well known to be a guy that would attack fastballs early and take any borderline pitches and off-speed.  If first pitch off-speed was up with taking strikes on them for get me over pitches, expecting him to take, then later in count fastballs that could lead to more misses too.

 

Think about it, he takes 0-0 off-speed for a strike, now behind 0-1.  He now needs to be concerned of that pitch again and may not be sitting on fastball.  Then as he had the off-speed in mind fastballs get faster and he is more likely to miss.  Teams may have started to pitch "backwards" against him.  

 

Could be he just was off due to strange season and injuries.  Let's hope for a bounce back season. 

[mikelink45]

Three reasons to not believe.

• He had a season way out of line with his career - beautiful, but not necessarily repeatable.
• He is a catcher and they are very inconsistent - event the HOF kinds.
• He did not burst onto the scene until he was 27 and had his out of this world season when he was 28 and blew up when he was 29. What makes you think he is a great player?

I hope he comes back and is really good, but if he isn't I don't think we should be surprised.  

[DocBauer]

I appreciate the numbers and reasons. All sound. And I'm more than willing to give pitchers and catchers across baseball, not just the Twins, a mulligan for 2020 because it was a strange year and we saw SO many examples of odd performances.

 

Garver, IMO, is NOT what we saw in 2019. I mean, we are talking HOF, all time spectacular numbers! But he also not what we saw in 2020. And I don't need the 3 points in the OP to tell me that.

 

He hit in college. He hit in the minors and was named the hitter of the year twice IIRC. He hit pretty well in his 2018 rookie season.

 

I tend to agree with JLease, even if he hits like 2018...and I think he's better than that...with his growth behind the plate, he's a very good and valuable catcher.

[prouster]

I hope Garver rebounds. I’m skeptical that he will, though. His K rate this year was Sano-at-his-worst bad, seemingly because he had a hard time making contact with much of anything. If you can’t hit the fastball, you’re not gonna last long in the Majors. I’m also worried that 2019 is his 100th percentile outcome. He had a wildly uncharacteristic HR/FB ratio of 29%. That’s up there with Yellich and Bonds. It’s also 15% higher than his 2020 number and a whopping 21% higher than 2018. We need to see more, but it sure looks light an outlier right now. 2020 is obviously a small sample size—but so was 2019. Like I said, I hope his problems this year were a result of the weird offseason and nagging injuries and that he comes back in top form. My hunch is that Garver is probably a mediocre MLB catcher.

[prouster]

I hope Garver rebounds. I’m skeptical that he will, though. His K rate this year was Sano-at-his-worst bad, seemingly because he had a hard time making contact with much of anything. If you can’t hit the fastball, you’re not gonna last long in the Majors. I’m also worried that 2019 is his 100th percentile outcome. He had a wildly uncharacteristic HR/FB ratio of 29%. That’s up there with Yellich and Bonds. It’s also 15% higher than his 2020 number and a whopping 21% higher than 2018. We need to see more, but it sure looks light an outlier right now. 2020 is obviously a small sample size—but so was 2019. Like I said, I hope his problems this year were a result of the weird offseason and nagging injuries and that he comes back in top form. My hunch is that Garver is probably a mediocre MLB catcher.

I’ll add that there’s a lot of value in being a mediocre catcher. But from a roster management standpoint, it’s important to know if you have Mike Piazza or Ron Karkovice on your team.

[heresthething]

I can recall a few articles about how Garver was talking hitting with Donaldson.  Not saying Donaldson was giving him bad advice, I just wonder if Garver didn't start thinking and talking about all of it too much and then add on the unbelievable 2019 season and it sure looks to have the makings of a guy that got into his own head too much.  

[bighat]

Garver will certainly rebound - but that's because he couldn't do any worse than he did last year. In fact, if his 1st month is anything like last year's 1st month, he'll be catching in St. Paul.

 

Every Twins fan is pulling for this guy. But realistically I think the best we can expect is a bat worthy of hitting in the 7 or 8 spot. If the guy hits .250 with 18 HR in a full season of ball we should all be thrilled.