Choose Your Own Path: 5 Ways for the 2021 Minnesota Twins to Spend their Remaining $40M

[Matthew Taylor]

While free agency has been slow-moving for the Minnesota Twins to begin the 2020 offseason, the Twins have plenty of moves yet to make and plenty of funds yet to spend. How the Twins will allocate those funds, though, is another question.Now that the team option and arbitration deadlines have passed, the Minnesota Twins payroll picture has become much clearer. Currently, the Minnesota Twins have ~$84.5M guaranteed to 14 of its players. That leaves anywhere from $5M to $65M in room for Derek Falvey to go out and sign free agents. Where exactly the Minnesota Twins will land in that range of offseason spending is impossible to know for sure, but scaling back the payroll 10% to a $125M opening day payroll in 2021 remains the most likely path. Could the Twins surprise fans and take advantage of their open window by outspending rival teams? Absolutely. As we plan for the Twins spending, though, it’s best to be conservative and realistic and assume a $125M payroll, or $40M in spending room this offseason. Below is an illustration of where the payroll sits now:

 

 

Download attachment: current payroll.png

 

 

Each of the blue spaces are areas that the Twins have yet to solidify for next season. Whether it is through free agency, through trade, or through their own 40-man roster, each of those blue spaces will need to be filled by Opening Day 2021. How the Twins choose to fill those spots remains to be seen, but with the remaining $40M in our proverbial “budget” let’s lay out different ways that the Twins could choose to do so.

 

(Check out last offseason's version of "Choose Your Own Path" where the Twins ended up following one of the plans very closely").

 

Plan 1: The Bauer Plan

 

Download attachment: bauer.png

 

As you can see, with a $125M budget, there is next to no way that the Twins would be able to bring in Trevor Bauer and still field a competitive ball club. Signing Bauer at a $30M/year price tag (likely conservative estimate), would leave the Twins with essentially no room to sign anyone else on the free agent market to fill out their roster. The Twins would be forced to roll with rookies and minimum salary players up and down the roster to make the money work, negating any of the value that would be added by signing Bauer. It could still be possible that the Twins go out and spend on Trevor Bauer this offseason, but increased spending past what anybody expects would have to come along with it.

 

Plan 2: The “Elite Pitching” Plan

 

 

Download attachment: pitching.png

 

While signing Trevor Bauer might not be realistic, the Twins could still acquire top end pitching talent this offseason. The additions shown above would not only give the Twins the best pitching rotation in the American League central, but put them in the conversation for the best rotation in the American League. With this plan the Twins would add Masahiro Tanaka, a multi-time all-star as well as Alex Wood. In the 4 seasons of his 7 year career in which he has been fully healthy, Wood has posted ERAs of 2.78, 3.84, 2.72 and 3.68. Additionally with this plan, the Twins would bolster their bullpen by adding 100+ MPH flamethrower Trevor Rosenthal and bring back Tyler Clippard who was excellent in 2020 for the Twins. Going all-in on pitching would admittedly leave the Twins thin at the plate, but the hope would be that they could get Eddie Rosario-type production from Alex Kirilloff in left field, while a Rooker/Cave platoon at DH would produce above average numbers.

 

Plan 3: The “Elite Offense” Plan

 

 

Download attachment: hitting.png

 

In 2020, the Minnesota Twins finished second in the Majors in pitching fWAR, so maybe the strategy for the Twins going into 2021 should be to sure up their offense, as they finished 15th in baseball in terms of OPS last season. Attacking the offensive side of the plate with their payroll dollars could definitely put together a scary offensive attack for the Twins in 2021. Under this plan, the Twins would bring back Nelson Cruz and his back-to-back Silver Slugger Awards. Additionally they could bring in Yasiel Puig, a proven slugger, as a 4th outfielder to fill in for Alex Kirilloff against left-handed pitching. The Twins don't have to stop there, as Minnesota could still bolster their bench by signing utilitymen Tommy La Stella (.800 OPS from 2017-2020) and Jonathan Villar (20+ home run power with great speed).

Plan 4: The “Spread it Around” Plan

 

 

Download attachment: spread.png

 

For those who don’t want the Twins to spend too much on a specific area of the Twins roster, the “Spread it Around” plan might be of most interest to you. In this plan the Twins would spend ~$17M on their batters and ~$20M on their pitchers, forming a well-rounded team, while staying under our self-imposed $125M budget. We were able to do this by substituting in Kyle Schwarber for Nelson Cruz, which still provides a potent bat while saving on the money needed for Nelson Cruz. Additionally, the Twins would sign a mid-tier free agent starting pitcher, in Jake Odorizzi, while signing Trevor Rosenthal who has the ceiling of a top-tier reliever with a more reasonable salary than someone like Liam Hendriks.

 

Plan 5: The “Run it Back” Plan

 

 

Download attachment: bring back.png

 

The final strategy that the Minnesota Twins could employ this offseason would be to simply run it back. After all, the Twins are coming off of back-to-back AL Central titles and 100-win pace teams, why mess with what has been working? The Twins obviously won’t be bringing back Eddie Rosario or Trevor May, but they could bring back Cruz, Marwin, Adrianza, Odorizzi, Romo and Clippard and still come in under budget. It wouldn’t be the flashy offseason that Twins fans are hoping for, but could running it back actually make the most sense?

 

 

Which of the above offseason plans do you think makes the most sense for the Minnesota Twins? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! Want to create your own plan? Head over to www.TwinsPayroll.com and share your own!

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[Otwins]

Do Falvey or Levine have Covid? You don't hear anything. Terry Ryan use to be done free agent shopping by Christmas.  I think they will spread it around a bit. No on Bauer.  That team looks like the weakest. Cave/Rooker platoon at DH would not be fun.

[IndianaTwin]

It’s easy to speculate on why $125M makes sense, but have Falvey, Levine, or Pohlad actually said anything that points to a cut, let alone 10 percent?

[yeahyabetcha]

How about a “save it for next year” plan?

[TNTwinsFan]

I vote for option 2. Pitching wins championships. Always been a fan of Alex Wood and advocated for the Twins to sign him last year. Maybe save some money on Rosenthal and sign someone cheaper and add a little more depth to the bench, but, I wouldn't be too worried about it; the bench doesn't scare me as outlined above. Hell, if Lewis is tearing it up, call him up and your bench now has Polanco or Arraez on it. Go. Get. Pitching.

[TwinsFan268]

I say run it back. I've liked where the Twins have been in '19 and '20 so I think that makes the most sense for them as an organization.

[HrbieFan]

Hybrid plan for me, but I'd rather have Wood than Odo. Bring back Cruz and Clippard and take some shots with rebound guys to fill the pen.

[arby58]

 

I vote for option 2. Pitching wins championships. Always been a fan of Alex Wood and advocated for the Twins to sign him last year. Maybe save some money on Rosenthal and sign someone cheaper and add a little more depth to the bench, but, I wouldn't be too worried about it; the bench doesn't scare me as outlined above. Hell, if Lewis is tearing it up, call him up and your bench now has Polanco or Arraez on it. Go. Get. Pitching.

Last year's team had enough pitching, but you won't win a play-off series (let alone a World Series) scoring one run a game. The all-in isn't going to win it. I'd prefer the 'spread it around.' Of all of the options, the 'do over' sounds the worst.

[arby58]

 

I say run it back. I've liked where the Twins have been in '19 and '20 so I think that makes the most sense for them as an organization.

If nearly all of the offense hadn't regressed in 2020, I might agree with you. They'd be relying on a bunch of guys (Romo, Cruz, Polanco) who were on the down-swing in the second half of 2020 - and some who had really poor full seasons (Marwin, Cave, Adrianza).

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Matt, for putting in so much work & planning in these blueprints, they're very interesting.

I think plan "A "        should include strengthen our middle which would have Hernandez (which is     highly      rumored) & Lin which we have already obtained plus signing Cruz. I believe this falls into your "spread it around" plan, I'd also   choose some other different options.  Of coarse signing Cruz, we can't sign Odo           we'd have to           sign a lesser pitcher like Richards.                         Signing Cruz is worth it. 

If we can't sign Cruz, my plan "B" would be the "Bauer" plan & still find a way to sign Hernandez for a little less which I believe the FO is doing now.

[Matthew Taylor]

 

It’s easy to speculate on why $125M makes sense, but have Falvey, Levine, or Pohlad actually said anything that points to a cut, let alone 10 percent?

Great question. They have not. It's just an educated guess given the state of the economy of baseball. I usually prefer to be conservative when I estimate payroll numbers. Twins could definitely spend more than I'm thinking.

[Doctor Gast]

 

It’s easy to speculate on why $125M makes sense, but have Falvey, Levine, or Pohlad actually said anything that points to a cut, let alone 10 percent?

I agree w/ Matt it's just an estimate. It`s better to be under than over, if we have some wiggle room we can go after a big gun before the dead line. Also Ted Schwertzler blogged that the FO might be testing the waters to make a big splash. We'll have to wait & see 

[Major League Ready]

 

It’s easy to speculate on why $125M makes sense, but have Falvey, Levine, or Pohlad actually said anything that points to a cut, let alone 10 percent?

It might be easy but what is it based on. A lot of projections these projections are based on a wish that spending be $X. Budgets are developed based on a revenue projection. I have seen evidence any of the projections here are based on revenue projections.

 

I understand to a degree. Does anyone know how much revenue is going to be impacted? IMO, the team’s projections could change by $10s of millions over the next 60-90 days. This 10% cut in payroll is the equivalent to a 5% decrease in revenue. How many here think revenue will be down by 5% or less?

What’s the most likely case scenario? Are we going to play 162 games? Let’s say that best case scenario comes true. When will fans be back? It’s not going to be day 1. Let’s say they are back after only 60 games which would be extremely fortunate. That’s 37% of the season which equates to a $44.4M loss in revenue. Who here would cut their spending by $15K if they knew they were going to make $45K less this year?

 

I sure hope they spend $125M or more but the current revenue outlook does not support it.. 

[saviking]

I love the way you laid this out Mathew .. 

 

So, I would take the elite pitching plan, drop Wood and Rosenshein (7m +7m = 14m) and use it to resign Cruz ... 

[tony&rodney]

The news is this: nobody knows if the Twins are playing at $90 million or $125 million.

The itch is to think positive and go with a $125 million payroll; a fun exercise. I'll play.

 

I'm using money on Tyler Clippard and Liam Hendriks to cost me $25 million for relief.

Hendriks - Rogers - Duffey - Clippard - Alcala - Stashak - Thielbar - Dobnak.

Jake Odorizzi and Dobnak/Duran round out my starting staff which costs $39 million.

Berrios - Maeda - Odorizzi or Kluber & Hill - Pineda - Duran.

My squad will miss Cruz but add Ketel Marte and resign Adrianza for $61 million to fill out the batting side.

Garver/Jeffers-Kirilloff-Arraez-Donaldson-Polanco-Marte-Buxton-Kepler-Sano with a bench of Rooker-Larnach-Adrianza.

 

I would like to find a trade with Colorado as do others. Kluber, Hill, Walker, and others are all interesting picks too.

 

It would also be a fun exercise to see what the Twins do at a $100 million.

 

 

 

 

[IndianaTwin]

Combined response to Matt, Doctor Gast, and MLR, from someone who hasn't mastered the MultiQuote button.

 

Again, I get why it makes "sense" to assume that budget will go down based on revenue projection and that that's the general assumption for most teams. It may well happen for the Twins as well.

 

Or it may not. In my work, I often remind people that a budget is first and foremost a planning document. It's not hard and fast. Good budgets aren't locked, and when circumstances call for it, you loosen the budget as easily as you tighten it.

 

One thing I've been impressed with in this regime is their willingness to be opportunistic, including zigging when others zag. They focus on value and make gobs of moves, but on their timetable.

 

Last winter, for example, while they were most certainly working within broad parameters, they seemed more focused on finding perceived "value" than on staying within a fixed number. We may not have liked exactly how they made each decision, but they made a good-faith attempt to address every need they had with a good value. That included a trade on Maeda and waiting until the price seemed right to sign Donaldson. One of those worked out better than the other, at least for last year. That included giving the QO to Odo and signing Hill. One of those worked out better than the other. And there was Clippard, Wisler, Chacin, again a mixture of results, but all good risks by their definitions. Those are also examples of their tendency to make multiple moves to nudge the needle rather than focusing on the splashy move.

 

All that to say that to me, none of these options really fulfill all their needs. For example, one of the things they did well last year was entered spring training with 10 viable starting options, seven vets and three rookies, as I recall. This isn't a critique limited to you, Matt, but I'm not sure that I've seen any projections on TD that went beyond six or so deep as starting pitcher options.

 

So while they may well shoot for a decreased budget, I think there's at least more than the proverbial non-zero chance that they will match or even exceed last year's total when they consider what the needs are and what's committed. They may well wait Cruz out, for example, but if they get to a point where they've committed $122M, Cruz falls to their target, and they still don't feel like they are where need to be, I think they'll plop down the remaining amount needed, even if it pushes them over the "budget." As an overspend, I think letting Rosario go was as much about the timing as it was the dollar. They didn't want to commit to an overspend that early in the offseason. If it was a February decision and they knew where they were elsewhere, they might have run with him.

 

Pohlad seems to spend money when it's called for. He looks for value, but keeps the focus on the overall goal (including doing "corporate culture" things like paying minor leagues for a full season and giving to BLM). He most certainly is working from a revenue projection, but he's also smart enough to see the opportunity of a ton of revenue coming their way in 2022 if they strategically zig and go over budget far enough to have a legit shot at taking it all.

 

And similarly, while they most certainly are looking at current revenue projections, they also most certainly are NOT looking at just one-year budgeting cycles. If they ended up close to a projected $140M after committing to Donaldson in 2020, they very well may have been targeting $150M in their two-years-out budget for 2021. They knew it was a four-year commitment to Donaldson, not a one-year commitment.

 

The 2020 season is now a sunk cost, and a Pohlad doesn't approach his 2021 feeling the need to make back his losses on 2020. So even if you take a 10 percent cut from a planned 2021 budget of $150M, for example, you're still talking $135M, not $125M. 

 

So that's why I vote for "none of the above," but I'm not smart enough and haven't been following closely enough to have an alternate proposal at that level. I just don't think that they will try to shoehorn 12 spots (more really, when depth is considered) into just $40M when there's a division and more to be won. 

 

(Edit to add: Maybe another way to say it is, Pohlad seems like the kind of guy who would say, "Look, COVID has really messed things up. We don't know how things are going to play themselves. Revenue might be way down, but it might not be down as much as we think. Let's not overact. Go conservative on that $150M plan we had for 2021, and if we come up short on the revenue side, we'll deal with that later.")

[sdangus]

I like the 3rd plan, but if you choose one of Villar or LaStella, you could get a better pitcher for the #4 spot.

[TopGunn#22]

Obviously the BEST plan is one with "diversity."  

Can't go ALL Pitching or ALL Hitting   They need balance.

 

That said here's my plan with a couple of trades:

 

Sano, Garver, Larnach and Enlow  for  Trevor Story and German Marquez.

Arraez and Dobnak for Ketel Marte  (possibly swap Sabato for Dobnak).

 

Sign Puig 2.00 Million

Sign Brad Hand or Trevor Rosenthal for $7 Million

Sign Alex Wood for $7 million

Resign Nelson Cruz for $14 Million

Sign Alex Avila for $1.00

 

Twins Roster  

C   Jeffers    .600

C    Avila     1.00

1B  Kiriloff    .600

2B  Ketel Marte   6.00

3B  Donaldson   21.00

SS  Trevor Story  18.00

OF  Max Kepler    6.50

OF  Buxton      5.10

OF  Puig     2.00

DH  N. Cruz   14.00

OF  Rooker   .600

OF  Cave or Wade  .600

$73.30 Million

 

SP   Maeda    8.15

SP   Berrios    6.10

SP   Pineda    10.00

SP   Marques   6.00

SP   Alex Wood  7.00

 

RP   B. Hand or  Rosenthal   7.00     

RP   T. Rogers     6.00

RP   Duffey  2.2

RP   Alcala   .600

RP  Theilbar   .650

RP   D. Law

RP   Stashek or Colina  .600

SP/RP  Smeltzer or Thorpe  .600

$55.50 Million

 

Total Payroll:   $128.8 Million.

I could have come in right at $125 with Tijuan Walker instead of Alex Wood, but we need a LHP in our rotation.  

 

I don't know how realistic my trades are, but listening to Zulgag and Mackey discussing a Story trade it seems like I'm pretty much there.  Twins could move on to Lewis at SS in 2022 if the don't sign Story long term.

But I'd say the heck with that---Story 3 to 5 years $20 million a year. 

Lewis takes over in CF if we move on from Buxton or he settles in at 3B when Donaldson has to move to 1B and Kiriloff takes over in LF.

Marte is CF insurance for Buxton and several other positions.

Polanco is super utility who plays a lot and can fill in at SS if needed.  

 

1.   Marte    2B

2.   Donaldson  3B

3.   Cruz   DH

4.   Story   SS

5.   Kepler  RF

6.   Puig   LF

7.   Kiriloff   1B

8.   Jeffers  C

9.  Buxton  CF

 

Polanco slots in just about anywhere.  You could also play Marte full time in LF and Polanco at 2B  (but Marte is a pretty good 2B-man).

Put Polanco at the #6 spot instead of Puig in that scenario.  

This team is built to win in 2021 and at some point Balazovic and Dhuran join the pitching staff and Lewis joins September 2021 or 2022 for sure.

[rv78]

Marte wouldn't be much of an upgrade over Arraez in fielding. He has more pop in his bat but for the money I'd much rather they keep a cheap Arraez and use the money for some other position or pitching. I'd also rather have a Pillar than a Villar or a Puig. 

As for Story, if you want another basher that strikes out a lot then have at him, but I think the Twins have more than enough of that already. Sure he's an upgrade defensively over Polanco but I think Poo will have a bounce back year offensively in 2021 and with Story costing an arm and a leg the money would be better spent elsewhere. Start by resigning Cruz. Hope Donaldson returns to form in 2021. Let Kirilloff fill Eddies shoes. I'd be more inclined to try to trade Buck and Kepler than anybody. Have Larnach/Rooker take Keplers spot, and get Pillar and have him fill CF. I can live with Sano at 1B if a trade there is out of the question but he's only got 1 more year to improve or bye bye to him too. These guys that the Twins have been counting on for the last 5-6 years have got to start showing improvement. Batting averages of .230 or only playing half a season due to injuries just doesn't cut it.  

 

I'd be interested in spending that extra money not on Story or Marte but on Tanaka and Wood. That's a shutdown pitching staff right there. Add a couple quality arms for the pen, maybe Rosenthal and Clippard and piece the rest of that with returning arms should be good. You'd have a rotation that shouldn't need a lot of top arms in the pen.