Alternate Options if Cruz Doesn't Sign

[Matthew Lenz]

With the Twins and Nelson Cruz at a stalemate, Dan Hayes of The Athletic recently reported that the Twins have “checked in on" Kyle Schwarber, Adam Duvall and Michael Brantley. Yet, one of the best free agents available could be an even better fit than the previous three listed.On Wednesday, Hayes shared an update on the Cruz situation stating that talks “may not speed up any time soon” as Cruz is looking for a two-year deal on top of a raise from the last two years where he averaged $13 million each year. Understandably, the Twins are hesitant to give the aging slugger a multi-year deal as he’s also coming off three consecutive seasons dealing with various ailments. It was his ankle in 2018, his wrist in 2019, his knee in 2020, and as he is entering his 16th full major league season those should be some red flags for the Twins. As previously noted, there are younger options that the Twins can consider for the role of DH.

 

Without a doubt Schwarber and Duvall would each be a downgrade at the position, and they are both coming off the worst seasons of their respective careers. On the other hand, Brantley is arguably a more valuable piece than Cruz as he is younger and more versatile with the ability to play a solid left field. MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) has Brantley as the 13th-best free agent this offseason and predicts him signing a two-year, $28MM deal with the Atlanta Braves, but he is undoubtedly a really nice fit for the Twins now that Eddie Rosario is gone. That said, if the Twins are okay settling with more of a DH-only, they should kick the tires on a player that is four years younger than Brantley.

 

Following Hayes’ article on Wednesday, Eno Sarris posted another article “Find the Best Fits for the Top Ten MLB Free Agents”. In that article he points that 31-year-old LF/DH Marcell Ozuna would be a good fit for the Twins but ultimately predicts him signing with the Chicago White Sox on a four-year, $80MM contract. At MLBTR, they have him as the fourth best free agent and signing with the Nationals for four years, $72MM. It’s worth noting that before Sarris, Twins Daily own Cody Christie had Ozuna part of his 2021 Blueprint and Nash Walker mentioned it on his podcast not long before that. And for good reason. Between Ozuna, Brantley, and Cruz, Ozuna is coming off the best season slashing .338/.431/.636 while hitting 18 home runs and posting a WRC+ of 179.

 

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Ozuna’s biggest knock, specifically when compared to Brantley, will be his strikeout and rates although his numbers do fall pretty closely to those of Cruz. Defensively, Brantley is definitely the superior player as Ozuna was almost exclusively used as a DH in Atlanta and Brantley became Houston’s primary DH partially due to Yordan Alvarez’s injury. That said, overall Ozuna is the better hitter, the younger player, and doesn’t have the spotty injury history that Brantley has although he has remained healthy for each of the last three seasons.

 

As Sarris and MLBTR predict, Ozuna will likely be looking for a multi-year deal longer than the two-year deal that Cruz wants and Brantley is predicted for. Looking long term, this could be something the Twins aren’t interested in as Josh Donaldson may need to slide into that role to remain healthy and productive as he gets older. If the Twins don’t want a drop in productivity then Duvall and Schwarber aren’t serious options, but Brantley, Cruz, and Ozuna are all kind of a toss up. They could go with the best player in Ozuna, the best fit and value in Brantley, or stick with the veteran in Cruz who has provided invaluable leadership in his two years as a Twin.

 

Of the names mentioned in this article, who do you want the Twins to go after? Is there a name not listed here you’d consider?

 

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[mikelink45]

It is DH - not a position player.  There are many options, including in house.  Use the money for the critical positions - pitcher, pitcher, pitcher.  

[Otwins]

If you can't get Cruz on a one year deal then use the prospects.  I would not give a 4 year $80 million deal for a DH.

[CTTwin]

Agreed. Prospects for DH.

Use the money for pitching.

[TwinsFan268]

I think do everything possible to re-sign Cruz, but maybe use a rotation for DH or go sign a first baseman and play Sano at DH. The only downside to that is Sanó is very streaky. I know it's not perfect so go after Cruz

[Trov]

Most teams do not like using the DH for prospects exclusively.  I would not go out and sign Ozuna.  I would be fine with Brantly as he is a pro hitter that is not an easy out.  He can play the field if needed too.  However, my preferred route would be if Cruz does not sign just do the rotational DH thing, or go with Rooker as the DH.  Rooker is old enough that by putting him the DH you are not really hurting his value because he will be in early 30's before a FA, assuming he makes it that long, and his fielding is so bad that by that age that is where he would fall anyways. 

 

If you do not go Rooker, then I would look Sano as well, and let others play first, but Sano was not as bad at first as I thought he would be.  I just would not want to invest big on a DH when you have a lot of possible bats with limited defense ready to play now.  

[ashbury]

A top notch DH can be a cost-effective way for a mid-market team to fill out the lineup card. Nelson Cruz is Exhibit A.

 

Paying $20M a year for that doesn't count as cost-effective, though - that kind of money needs to come with a good glove included (or, preferably, a pitching arm instead of a bat), and Ozuna's glove appears to be not really stellar. And if they would spend that kind of money on a corner outfielder with middling defense, they should have just kept Rosario for less.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm all for resigning Cruz.  He's our BEST hitter.  But one year with an option is as far as I'd go at this stage of his career.

If the Twins decide to go with the kids and a DH rotation here's what I want to see:

A trade for Ketel Marte and sign the kid long-term.

Liam Hendricks as our closer.

Paxton as a welcome LHP in our rotation. 

Cruz is our BEST hitter.  But balancing when that stops and all the other holes on our roster means there are no 2-year $28-$30 million dollar contracts coming Nellie's way.

I've said this before too:

Teams who are willing to spend just a little bit more can take a BIG step forward for 2021 and beyond.

[Twinsfan#2]

I do think we resign Cruz, but include a clause that poor performance (i.e. BA under .200 or low slugging pct.) will result in him joining the FO as a coach. 2 year deal is OK with me as long as there is a mutual option or team option for year 2. 2-30 gets it done.

[TopGunn#22]

I don't see Cruz ever being THAT bad.  

I think you gotta pay him a decent value and guarantee it.  

But the option year should be a mutual option to give both the Twins and Nellie the flexibility.  

[chaderic20]

One possibility I don't think I've seen mentioned is Donaldson being DH, Polanco moving to 3B, and signing one of the free agent SS to a one or two year deal while waiting for Lewis to show up. Improves defense at SS, but costs some at 3B, but that's not as important a defensive position as SS, so I think that's an overall win. Plus it should help keep Donaldson in the lineup more consistently, and he should be able to provide as much production as Cruz.

[DocBauer]

Unless you have a pretty special bat like Cruz, or Ortiz, or Thome back in the day, etc, I've never been in favor of a bat only player on your team. I believe in the best, deepest and most versatile roster you can put together and rotate the DH spot. The obvious caveat to this is no matter good and deep a team you put together, some guys will just be better defensively than others so someone could still get the majority of their AB in the DH spot.

 

To a smaller degree/example, think Randy Bush when he was with the Twins. He was a servicable corner OF and 1B but on more of a fill-in, rotating basis. Think Rooker, potentially, going forward.

 

But even with the talent on hand, prospects and players expected to rebound in 2021, losing the production of BOTH Rosario AND Cruz is going to bring a downgrade offensively. And with the talent on hand, and the PROBABLE additions of a couple utility 10th/11th man options, overall roster flexibility should remain in place.

 

But there is both room and need for a bat for this lineup IF Cruz is not brought back. But that doesn't mean that has to be a bat only option.

 

Ozuna is not Cruz, but he's a nice bat who could at least play an OK OF once in a while. My problem with him is $18-20M per for 3-4yrs. There is a real chance that a year from now Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach are all fixtures, or near fixtures. There is a real chance that a year or two from now, Donaldson could be transitioned to DH, or 1B in place of Sano, who can slide in to more of a DH role. So I'm not sure I want to commit long term to something like that.

 

Brantley would make so much sense to me as an option instead of Cruz. Less HR power, more doubles, and a quality AVG hitter with decent contact and can still play the field. He fits in perfectly with various DH/OF/1B rotations.

 

I'm also very interested in Schwarber on something like a 2yr deal. I MIGHT do 3yrs but it depends on the terms. He's coming off a poor season...but a lot of guys are...and has a career OPS of .816 even with a bad 2020. He will only be 28yrs old for 2021. While I don't want him in the field often, he CAN play some OF. (Could he be worse than Willingham and some others)? And he CAN be a 3rd/emergency catcher on the roster. (Guy was a catcher in college and began his career back there).

 

I honestly believe Cruz will be back. I'm starting to think it might be a 1yr deal for around $15M. Less than he wants, but more than he got either of the last 2yrs. But Brantley and Schwarber could be productive and smart choices as replacement options without tieing in to expensive or long term deals.