That's What I Like About Yu: A Case for Yu Darvish

[David Youngs]

There’s no doubt that the Twins have one of the better top-heavy pitching rotations in the American League. To take things to the next level they need another layer. Insert Yu Darvish.The 2020 MLB winter meetings struck a similar chord to the return of the McRib Sandwich at McDonald’s; heavily surrounded with anticipation and hype, yet little action. Outside of the White Sox ruffling some feathers, this year’s offseason reunion consisted of unfulfilled rumors, Zoom fatigue, and minimal transactions.

 

Don’t lose hope just yet. Despite the lack of action thus far, there’s a lot of offseason left and the chances of activity picking up are high. With a majority of free agents still unsigned there surely will be an influx of movement in the future, especially among pitchers.

 

The pitching market is flooded with names like Trevor Bauer, Blake Snell, and Masahiro Tanaka. Yet as of late, a new name who isn’t a free agent has popped into the conversation. Cubs ace and 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish.

 

Coming off a strong resurgence in 2020, Darvish has become a household name across the league. Despite having a flush of rocky seasons throughout his career, Darvish has proven to be a top-tier pitcher whose versatility knocks on the door of “elite-ness.”

 

Darvish is signed for three more years and owed $59 million by the Cubs. In normal circumstances, one would be crazy to trade such a high-level player on a successful team. These, however, are not normal times for the Cubbies.

 

As Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com pointed out in a recent piece on Darvish, the Cubs are in an immense period of transition as a result of the legendary Theo Epstein leaving the organization. Regardless of who replaces Epstein, there’s an even greater problem surrounding the North-Siders.

 

After a historic World Series victory in 2016, the supposed dynasty of Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez, and Wilson Contreras hasn’t come to fruition. Yes, they’ve been good...but not at the level expected. The bottom line? There could be holes to fill in the Cubs roster and new ownership would have opportunities to make long-term fixes by trading the lucrative Darvish.

 

If the Twins were to trade for Darvish it wouldn’t be without a pretty penny. Given Darvish’s career numbers and name-recognition, the Twins would almost certainly send over a top prospect in addition to a high-value player.

 

We can worry about that later. Here are three reasons why trading for Yu Darvish could put the Twins rotation atop the league.

 

1. Good to Great

It’s no secret that depth is key to a solid pitching rotation. Kenta Maeda, José Berríos, and Michael Pineda boasted a 2020 season that rivaled the performance of Jack Morris, Scott Erickson, and Kevin Tapani in the 1991 regular season.

 

Yet uncertainties remain for the 2021 rotation. There’s a chance that free agent Jake Odorizzi could remain with the team next season though health remains an issue. Randy Dobnak was excellent in the first half of the 2020 season but faced difficulty getting outs deeper into the year. Both these guys have the potential to be excellent candidates to round out the rotation, the only question is consistency.

Not only would Darvish beef up the Twins rotation as a potential ace, but he would also naturally create more versatility that would put less pressure on the back of the rotation. Having a consistent fourth arm in the rotation allows players like Odorizzi and Dobnak to work their way back into the rotation through confidence built by favorable matchups.

 

For example, if the Twins were set to face a ground-ball heavy team the Twins could start Dobnak over Odorizzi. If there’s a matchup that favors Odorizzi (over Dobnak), Rocco Baldelli could select him to start that game. Darvish’s impact would extend far beyond his own talent, paving an opportunity for a dynamite fifth starter platoon.

 

2. Go Deep!

While Kenta Maeda electrified Twins fans with long outings in 2020, crafting starts that stretch into late innings hasn’t been and isn’t the Twins forte. In 2020 Michael Pineda and José Berríos each averaged 5.2 innings per game (five starts for Pineda, 12 for Berríos) while Maeda averaged roughly six innings (11 starts).

 

Darvish isn’t a consistent eight-inning starter, but statistically, he goes longer than any of the Twins’ current pitchers. In 2020 Darvish averaged north of six innings per game through 12 starts. Seven of those 12 outings were seven innings and only one was under six. Yes, it’s a small sample and no, his numbers haven’t been that high every year. Yet it does prove that Darvish has the capability to go deep in games and can do it often.

 

This could perhaps be valuable given the blows the Twins bullpen has received. With Trevor May, Matt Wisler, and Sergio Romo all gone it’s clear that young talent like Jorge Alcala, Cody Stashak, and perhaps Edwar Colina will be given ample opportunities. And while these youngsters have a wealth of talent, there are bound to be blunders, just as there are with any young player. Having a seasoned vet like Darvish could help control damage by going deep into games, preventing overuse of the bullpen, and preventing potential opportunities for wreckage.

 

3. How things Stack Up

As mentioned earlier, the Twins would need to offer up a wealth of talent in exchange for Garver. This is where things get complicated. The Cubs are in need of starting pitching, bullpen help, and consistent yet powerful hitting. While things could change amidst free agency, uncertainty looms over who the Twins would trade for Darvish.

 

Miguel Sano’s name comes to mind in regard to power hitting. The only problem? Third base is occupied by Kris Bryant (for now) and first base is locked down by Anthony Rizzo. Young second baseman Nico Hoerner has struggled at the plate, making him a potential swap for someone like Jorge Polanco. The Twins could offer up a top pitching prospect like Jordan Balazovic or even a current starter, yet this would defeat the purpose of building an elite and deep rotation.

 

If there is a position where the Twins have some leeway, it's the outfield. Despite non-tendering Eddie Rosario, the Twins have the luxury of possessing young talent like Alex Kirilloff, Brent Rooker, and Trevor Larnach. One of those names could anchor a puzzle piece of a potential Darvish trade.

 

All in all, the Minnesota Twins trading for Yu Darvish would be a bold move, one that could either go brilliantly or crash and burn. Coming off of one of the strongest pitching campaigns in the franchise’s history, making this move could capitalize on a strength and put the Twins in a position to seriously contend.

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[Trov]

First, it takes two to tango.  The Cubs got new GM, will they want to start out on a full rebuild?  Can the Cubs compete again next year?  Typically teams like the Cubs will not trade away guys if they can compete.  Might it be a good call for them in long run, maybe, but after having a season of no fans where they did well, to sell top talent and ask fans to return might be hard pill to swallow.  

 

Then on Twins side, are they looking to take on 20 mil a year for 3 years?  With more big contracts looking to have to be around the corner for other guys. Jose and Byron mainly.  Will the trade mean having to let them walk, are Twins okay with that?  Then what would it cost to get the trade done?  Many things to think about.  If it was clear Cubs were having a fire sale for pennies on the dollar then yeah make your offer, but nothing is suggesting that right now. 

[dbminn]

• The Good: I love watching Darvish pitch. He has the stuff to last into his late 30s. He could be an ace in 2021.
• The Bad: He will cost a couple of very good prospects. He's 34, has an injury history and a big salary obligation.

I'd rather sign Odorizzi and one of Hernandez/Profar/Galvis. A similar price without trading any prospects. Shorter contracts too.

 

 

 

[Linus]

There is no excess value in that contract that would justify giving away a top prospect. He wouldn’t get $20 million per in this open market.

[specialiststeve]

Don't think that production vs cost is worth his value at this point. 

[Doctor Gast]

Interesting proposition. A trade would be reasonable like a high pitching prospect plus a lower prospect             or                 Brent Rooker plus a middle pitching prospect. Kiriloff or Larnach wouldn`t be in the trade unless the Cubs have something else to add to the trade.  I wouldn't count on a weird shortened 2020 stats so I wouldn't trade any active player w/ a down season to gain a pitcher which had a good one 

[jmlease1]

So the Twins would need to sell low on Garver, hand over a top prospect (and I doubt the Cubs would settle for Rooker), add maybe a lottery ticket guy from A-ball, and take on all of Darvish's contract to make this work?

 

And we're betting on a guy who is 34 years old, has an injury history, and has only been a 5 bWAR player once in his career. That's a big bet to place that 2021 Yu will be as good as pandemic season Yu was.

[Dantes929]

Edit 1   Morris, Erickson and Tapani rather than Aguilera.    Edit 2  Darvish rather than Garver.  I'm with the others here.   Find talent that played down last year with upside rather than career years which would take premium cost.   If Bauer was healthy but had a so so year I would be all for him.   Coming off Cy Young in a shortened year is just gonna be too costly.   

[tony&rodney]

This would be quite a gamble due to the size and length of the contract, but especially set against the uncertainty of the unknown budget for the 2021 season. There isn't much room for Darvish in a vastly reduced roster expenditure, but there is a chance if the Twins hold the line. I would not expect a trade for Darvish to return one of the Twins top prospects but other options may be available. 

While I really like the idea of Darvish pitching for the Twins, the obstacles are numerous at this time. Who knows what direction the Cubs are going in at this point.

[mikelink45]

For the same reason I would not give Cruz two years I do not want a pitcher who is 34 and will be 35 during the season.  Look at his numbers https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/darviyu01.shtml,  He has one great year since 2014 and that was the shortened season we just had.  Pitchers don't age that well and he has had injury/health issues frequently.  Despite the fact that many do not like wins (although wins do count in the standings) he has had 6,4,1,6 and then last year a great year he won 8 in the shortened season.  It is like Bauer - one great season and everyone wants to pay him millions.  

 

 

[David Youngs]

Good catch! Clearly my millennial mind was not up to par when recalling those guys haha.

Edit 1   Morris, Erickson and Tapani rather than Aguilera.    Edit 2  Darvish rather than Garver.  I'm with the others here.   Find talent that played down last year with upside rather than career years which would take premium cost.   If Bauer was healthy but had a so so year I would be all for him.   Coming off Cy Young in a shortened year is just gonna be too costly.   

 

[mike8791]

Agree that another ace at top of rotation would move this team closer to what should be the goal of this organization: field a team that can go deep into the playoffs.  Aside from resigning Cruz and a well-established closer, this would be my choice for a big offseason move.

 

However, a trade for Darvish is extremely unlikely, primarily because the Cubs cannot afford to lose him if they are going to be competitive in 2021.  End of story. 

 

But Yu is not the most attractive starter available.  Ignoring Bauer, who clearly expects(and will probably get) the moon and stars from a club desperate for an ace, Blake Snell is a younger, cheaper version who is reportedly attainable - for a high price,of course.  The Twins match well with the Rays, who need a catcher badly and high profile, cheap prospects.  The Twins have a surplus of catchers, 3 or 4 top position prospects, and 3-4 minor league starters who are almost major league ready.  Sonny Gray would be another desirable trade target, but Snell is clearly the top choice.  Pair one of these with an Odorrizi resign and the Twins would have a top playoff rotation!

[Doctor Gast]

 

Agree that another ace at top of rotation would move this team closer to what should be the goal of this organization: field a team that can go deep into the playoffs.  Aside from resigning Cruz and a well-established closer, this would be my choice for a big offseason move.

 

However, a trade for Darvish is extremely unlikely, primarily because the Cubs cannot afford to lose him if they are going to be competitive in 2021.  End of story. 

 

But Yu is not the most attractive starter available.  Ignoring Bauer, who clearly expects(and will probably get) the moon and stars from a club desperate for an ace, Blake Snell is a younger, cheaper version who is reportedly attainable - for a high price,of course.  The Twins match well with the Rays, who need a catcher badly and high profile, cheap prospects.  The Twins have a surplus of catchers, 3 or 4 top position prospects, and 3-4 minor league starters who are almost major league ready.  Sonny Gray would be another desirable trade target, but Snell is clearly the top choice.  Pair one of these with an Odorrizi resign and the Twins would have a top playoff rotation!

Because of this weird year, a lot of teams are trying to cut costs, teams like PIT & TX. Other teams are capitalizing on pitchers who had a pretty good 2020. So you have teams like TB where Snell had   a good PS but a poor 2020 season, yet they are going to milk a trade w/ everything they can get.   Bauer will also try to milk his Cy Young w/ all he has got.  IMO the Cubs will try to trade  Darvich along w/ Kris  Bryant, depending how desperate they are. IMO Sonny Gray  makes    more sense, Gray has had some good years, 2020 not being one of them.

Looking at Twins FO history, they'll go after a bounce back candidate w/ high up-side bargain 

 

[Shaitan]

If it's a salary dump where the Twins give up low level prospects or the Cubs eat salary, yes.

 

But I wouldn't trade for that contract as is. I'd insist on a deal that favors the Twins to offset its risk.

[Rosterman]

You will be able to BUY players this year!

[DocBauer]

In theory, all 3 points in the OP are correct. A healthy and normal Darvish is worth $20M per in a normal market situation. I am not concerned to any great degree about his 1st year and a half in Chicago. He finished 2019 strong a d was great in 2020, short season or not.

 

Unless the Cubs are looking at full on re-build and/or economic firewall, they aren't going to give him away. He's a trade chip to bring back young talent. And financial implications or not, the Cubs should still have money to afford to keep him, I would think. It would probably cost something like Larnach and one of Enlow/Canterino. And he's probably worth that.

 

Am I worried he turns 35yo in April? Yes, at least a little. I'm more worried about being 37 the final year. But I am not saying no.

 

My concern is the entire need/cost scenario facing the Twins in 2021, much less beyond. This team has definite needs, but they aren't exactly desperate in any particular area. Further, the FA market is very deep in infielders, DH options and relievers, all of which the Twins have need for. And even though it "appears" from multiple rumors that they are not plannjng to slash payroll, they still have to fill those needs in some way or another. They also need another quality SP.

 

$20M for Darvish almost certainly means no Cruz, and probably not a similar replacement. And that MIGHT be OK with depth of talent and a shorn up pen. Unfortunately, while there is tremendous depth of cheap back of the rotation SP in the FA market, quality middle of the rotation arms are few. For somewhere between anywhere of $8-13M you have Odorizzi, Richardson, Tanaka, Walker and a possible bounce back from Kluber.

 

Are the Twins better off with one of these options, maybe adding a cheap flier, while keeping prospects for NOW, and addressing the other needs for the best overall TEAM they can field?

 

Again, not saying know to Darvish. It would be a bold mkve and could pay large dividends. But I think I lean a little more towards spreading the $ around as far as they can team-wide at this point.

[strumdatjaguar]

No No No. Too old to justify taking on that contract. Also, Darvish and Maeda would have to fight over the number 18 (which in Japan is reserved for the best pitcher on the staff).

[h2oface]

"the blows the Twins bullpen has received. With Trevor May, Matt Wisler, and Sergio Romo all gone".....

 

I wouldn't call them blows. The FO wanted it that way. They let it ALL happen, for various reasons.... but it was in inside purposeful job. Clippard too. They could all be here if that is what the FO wanted. Personally, the only one I thought important to keep was May, and I was relieved that Romo wouldn't be back. I look forward to youth in the system. For a starter, too.

 

[rv78]

Not interested.

1.Too old.

2.Salary is too expensive.

3.Would cost too much in trade to acquire. 

 

3 strikes and you're out!

[VivaBomboRivera!]

 

No No No. Too old to justify taking on that contract. Also, Darvish and Maeda would have to fight over the number 18 (which in Japan is reserved for the best pitcher on the staff).

Right now this belongs to Maeda.  Someone else would have to come in an earn the right to wear it.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

The article deserves beaucoup likes and style points for the title alone. 

 

It's all pure speculation until a real negotiation starts, but if there were an opportunity perhaps it's best to focus on what a pitcher like that could do for the team's championship prospects in the '21 season, and let the years beyond that take care of themselves. '22 is burdened with the uncertainty of a new collective bargaining agreement. Who knows where we'll be in '23?  Let's play for today.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm of the camp that I'm interested in Darvish IF it's a Cubs salary dump and we get him cheap.

Otherwise, there are younger, better long term options.

Sano traded to Colorado for Marquez (who is only 25) would be one option.  

That trade allows you to keep Cruz and add BP and a Utility guy.

You're shedding Sano's $11 million salary and a TON of strikeouts.  Rockies get power hitting for Coors.  We get a 25 year old starter with big upside.

There will be opportunities for teams willing to spend a little to add talent for next year and beyond.

I hope the Twins are one of those teams.

[ashbury]

I'm of the camp that I'm interested in Darvish IF it's a Cubs salary dump and we get him cheap.

Otherwise, there are younger, better long term options.

Sano traded to Colorado for Marquez (who is only 25) would be one option.  

That trade allows you to keep Cruz and add BP and a Utility guy.

You're shedding Sano's $11 million salary and a TON of strikeouts.  Rockies get power hitting for Coors.  We get a 25 year old starter with big upside.

There will be opportunities for teams willing to spend a little to add talent for next year and beyond.

I hope the Twins are one of those teams.

It's nice to dream, but that contract says to me Colorado has Marquez on the inner-circle of their Untouchable list. Is he mentioned anywhere in the rumor mill?

[TopGunn#22]

I thought I had read somewhere that Marquez and/or Gray could be had.

The Rockies are not going to be contenders anytime soon.

They have McMahan at 1B but he's also their 2B.  Murphy is gone.  Power plays in Coors.

That's why I have mentioned Sano to the Rockies on occasion.  They could use him.

To get Marquez or Gray Colorado may also want a young pitching prospect.  Maybe Enlow or Canterino.  I'd love to include one of them and get Brendan Rogers back as well, but I think Colorado wants to keep him around to take over for Story when he's gone.

Rogers could be our IF utility guy but that ain't happening.  

How about Sano, Garver, Edwar Colina and Canterino for Story & Marquez/Gray ??

[ashbury]

I thought I had read somewhere that Marquez and/or Gray could be had.

I don't see Marquez and Gray as interchangeable targets. Gray has one more season of team control; and the fact that Marquez signed a nice extension suggests that Gray (and not the Rockies) was the one unwilling to come to terms for a similar deal. Seems like Gray wants to test free agency. Unless the Twins have some secret sauce that the Rockies don't have for getting people to sign, we'd be trading for just one year of Gray, and I think I would save Sano for a different trade target than that.

 

[WyoTwin]

 

TopGunn#22

Yesterday, 05:42 PM

 

I thought I had read somewhere that Marquez and/or Gray could be had.

The Rockies are not going to be contenders anytime soon.

They have McMahan at 1B but he's also their 2B.Murphy is gone.Power plays in Coors.

That's why I have mentioned Sano to the Rockies on occasion.They could use him.

To get Marquez or Gray Colorado may also want a young pitching prospect.Maybe Enlow or Canterino.I'd love to include one of them and get Brendan Rogers back as well, but I think Colorado wants to keep him around to take over for Story when he's gone.

Rogers could be our IF utility guy but that ain't happening.

How about Sano, Garver, Edwar Colina and Canterino for Story & Marquez/Gray ??

 

_______________

 

I’ve been saying this for weeks. If you could get Story to do a sign and trade, I would include Buxton and Sano and a young pitcher, not one of the 3 top pitching prospect in a trade for Gray and Story.

 

People ask why would Story not sign with Colorado and then sign with the Twins? Money and a chance to win. Not sure if Colorado can do a big contract with all the money tied to Aranado and Blackman.

 

We also have a stud that was the top pick in the draft that played CF in the Arizona Fall league. If Story is locked in at SS Lewis can play CF and play great defense!

 

You have to make a move to get some of the HR back from the loss of Eddie and Cruz. Story will help with this and actually Lewis might also, not much, but Buxton doesn’t hardly hit any.

 

I have been hearing how the White Sox’s have moved past the Twins in the Central. They are making moves to help their window to win the Central and win Playoff Games! The Twins window is closing because they think that can win without ever making a move. If you were born around 1960 to 1975 you have very found memories of 1987 and 1991 Twins the only winning you have ever witnessed. No Vikings, Timberwolves, or Wild (North Stars). 87 and 91 made us lifetime fans! In 87 and 91 they made some moves. (Blyleven, Morris and Stewart)

 

Do something! Don’t sell the farm but don’t let the White Sox’s win the Central without doing anything. People keep talking about not making a trade because it may weaken the minor league’s. Well, I guess you can now go across the river and watch the Saint Paul Saints win a playoff game and championship!

[Dodecahedron]

The Twins have never signed a top tier player of this stature (or at this price point, if you want to be more honest).

 

I don't know why we waste our time thinking about this sort of thing.