The Non-Tendered Outfielder Who Best Fits the Twins' Needs

[Matthew Trueblood]

He wasn’t even the most famous outfielder non-tendered by his former team last week, but one former first-round pick and ex-Chicago Cub could be the key to solidifying the Twins’ outfield.Four picks after Byron Buxton became a Twin, in 2012, the Cubs drafted another athletic, alliterated high-school center fielder from the Southeast: Albert Almora, of the Miami area. Four years later, Almora scored the eventual winning run in Game 7 of the World Series, after a daring 10th-inning tag-up. It would be the apex of his uneven time with the Cubs, but hardly the only highlight. Now, after two eminently frustrating seasons, Chicago has cut ties with Almora, and the Twins should be calling his agents.

 

At first blush, maybe Almora seems like an odd fit for the Twins. After all, Buxton has blossomed into a star, with the defense-first, exciting profile Almora never quite managed to bring together. However, Buxton isn’t only a star in the sense that he’s a high-caliber player: he’s also the center of the outfield universe in Minnesota, and that’s a bit of a problem.

 

Buxton is the right-handed star, but all of the planets in the Twins’ outfield solar system bat left-handed. Cutting ties with Eddie Rosario didn’t really alter that fact. Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, LaMonte Wade, Jr., and Jake Cave all hit from the left side. Brent Rooker is a righty, but Rooker’s viability as an outfielder is still uncertain, and he’s older than your typical rookie, so he’s likely to decline quickly in that regard. The Twins need a reliable, right-hitting outfielder who can slide into that orbit.

 

If it were that simple, Almora wouldn’t be an especially good fit. He’s a .271/.309/.398 career hitter, and has been worse than that over the last two seasons, as he’s fallen out of the Cubs’ plans and lost touch with his offensive talent. The Twins could certainly court better hitters from the right side, such as Adam Duvall, Cameron Maybin, or Hunter Renfroe. Alas, the Twins need something else from a prospective outfield addition, too: Buxton insurance.

 

Whatever one thinks of Buxton’s ability when he’s on the field, his extreme injury risk has to be factored into both valuing him and building a roster of which he’s part. He’s a great player, and having him creates a high ceiling for the lineup whenever he’s in it, but if a team fails to plan for the 60-80 games a year in which he’ll be either diminished or unavailable, they forfeit the advantage that might give. Cave, Wade, and Kepler have all spent time in center field over the last two years, but without real success. Kepler was a solid center fielder until roughly 2018, but is stretched there now. Cave and Wade always look slightly out of place there.

 

Almora, on the other hand, is an above-average defender in center. He’s also a few months younger than both Buxton and Wade, and just six months older than Rooker. The Cubs failed to get the most out of his bat, but given his age and demonstrated talent, there’s reason to believe he could still become a league-average hitter under the tutelage of the Twins’ far superior developmental staff. Any team that signs Almora will acquire control of his rights for 2022, even if they only agree to a one-year deal, because he was non-tendered after reaching only four-plus years of service time.

 

Almora isn’t a burner like Buxton. He’s unlikely to develop even 20-homer power, though he hit 12 in just 363 plate appearances during an otherwise discouraging 2019. However, he has contact skills. He demonstrates stunningly good instincts when chasing fly balls at all three outfield spots. He shares Buxton’s daring style, but is better at avoiding injuries. He’s a hard-working, smart player, and a good teammate.

 

If the Twins want to continue to plan their outfield around Buxton, they need a way to sustain the team-wide defensive excellence he encourages, even when he’s unavailable. They also need a right-handed option to mitigate the risk that Kepler’s struggles against left-handers continue, or that Kirilloff runs into such problems as a rookie. Almora offers all of that, in better balance than any other candidate available in free agency. There might be no team better-positioned to help him rehabilitate his career.

 

That Almora would come cheaply (MLB Trade Rumors had only estimated his arbitration salary at $1.575 million, which the Cubs decided not to pay), and be affordable in 2022 if the experiment went well, and that he would improve the team’s leverage in any discussions of a long-term deal with Buxton, only pads the case for signing him. If some other team offers him an everyday job in center field, the Twins will lose out, but since that’s unlikely, they should stay in touch, and make Almora a priority in their positional pursuits in free agency.

 

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[bobs]

Seems like he's a right-handed version of Cave...maybe a little weaker offensively at this point, but better defensively and hits right handed.

[ashbury]

The problem with each and every one of the non-tender guys is that the team that knows them best passed on the unilateral decision to keep them. Still, the case laid out here is intriguing, and perhaps is a better fit for the Twins than for other teams whose needs in CF are either greater or less.

[Seth Stohs]

Completely on board with this!! 

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with ashbury, I'd sign Dahl for $4-million in heartbeat.

Dahl is young, talented and affordable just what the Twins need.

Dahl could play all 3 OF positions and I don't care that he's a left-handed hitter.

However, one player the Twins should be targeting in a trade in Ketel Marte.

He plays 2B, SS and CF and I'm sure could play LF or RF if needed as well as 3B in a pinch.

He's a very good hitter and his defensive versatility is just what the Twins need.

Arizona will NOT be contending in the near future.

An arm like Enlow and someone like Larnach (although I'd HATE to part with him) should do it.

Ketel Marte is worth it because the Twins are built to win NOW and Marte can help them more than Larnach or Enlow right now.

What does anybody else think would be needed to acquire Ketel Marte ??    

 

 

[mikelink45]

I am for this as a back up to Buxton, but not if it blocks Kiriloff, Rooker, Larnach.  I am just not into pushing the best prospects down each year.  On the other hand, if he is just a back up to Buxton and an extra OF I would be fine with that.  If he takes Cave's place I am fine, but actually I want Rooker on the bench if he is not the DH.  

[strumdatjaguar]

Brent Rooker bats right. Case closed

[strumdatjaguar]

Brent Rooker bats right. Case closed

[70charger]

Fact that may only interest me: when I visited the Cedar Rapids Kernels in 2013, mostly to see Buxton in person for the first time, I saw him play against Albert Almora, then on the Kane County Cougars. They were both very impressive, but Almora had the better game that day.

 

(I also saw Dan Vogelbach and remember thinking that if he doesn’t get into some semblance of shape it won’t matter how many homers he hits, he wouldn’t make it to the majors. I guess that was not true.)

[Andrew Bryzgornia]

I don't think Enlow and Larnach gets Marte, though. The D-Backs won't give up a 2-WAR player that can play SS and CF for an okay pitching prospect and a corner outfielder prospect. 

 

I agree with ashbury, I'd sign Dahl for $4-million in heartbeat.

Dahl is young, talented and affordable just what the Twins need.

Dahl could play all 3 OF positions and I don't care that he's a left-handed hitter.

However, one player the Twins should be targeting in a trade in Ketel Marte.

He plays 2B, SS and CF and I'm sure could play LF or RF if needed as well as 3B in a pinch.

He's a very good hitter and his defensive versatility is just what the Twins need.

Arizona will NOT be contending in the near future.

An arm like Enlow and someone like Larnach (although I'd HATE to part with him) should do it.

Ketel Marte is worth it because the Twins are built to win NOW and Marte can help them more than Larnach or Enlow right now.

What does anybody else think would be needed to acquire Ketel Marte ??    

 

[stringer bell]

Fact that may only interest me: when I visited the Cedar Rapids Kernels in 2013, mostly to see Buxton in person for the first time, I saw him play against Albert Almora, then on the Kane County Cougars. They were both very impressive, but Almora had the better game that day.

 

(I also saw Dan Vogelbach and remember thinking that if he doesn’t get into some semblance of shape it won’t matter how many homers he hits, he wouldn’t make it to the majors. I guess that was not true.)

I probably was at the same series. I remember thinking the highly regarded Twins team didn’t have any more prospects than Kane County. I sat next to Berríos in the stands. Vogelbach looked really pudgy and I thought there was no way that he would make the majors.

[Doctor Gast]

 

 

However, one player the Twins should be targeting in a trade in Ketel Marte.

He plays 2B, SS and CF and I'm sure could play LF or RF if needed as well as 3B in a pinch.

He's a very good hitter and his defensive versatility is just what the Twins need.

Arizona will NOT be contending in the near future.

An arm like Enlow and someone like Larnach (although I'd HATE to part with him) should do it.

Ketel Marte is worth it because the Twins are built to win NOW and Marte can help them more than Larnach or Enlow right now.

What does anybody else think would be needed to acquire Ketel Marte ??    

I appreciate your vision Mat, that we need an upgrade at CF back up that we've been hurting for a long time & has cost us dearly. Almora would be a good fit, although we don`t have a desirable CF back up we have a ton of corner outfielders. So his usefulness is solely CF back up this alone can not justify him to occupy a roster spot. 

On the other hand, Ketel Marte not only takes care of CF back up, he`d be an upgrade at SS. I'm an advocate of starting Marte at SS & transition Polanco to 2B, where he could blossom into an allstar (not at utility, I don`t think he'd adapt well there). Marte's a great hitter & has an agreeable contract. I agree w/ Andrew that it'd take a little more than Larnach & Enlow but at least it's a great starting point. Marte is worth any trade that doesn`t include essential prospects. SS & CF is the anchor to any defense & should be addressed. Trade is also good for the player who are traded because it gives them an opportunity to start now, not 2-5 yrs. from now if ever 

[DocBauer]

I like the idea. I really do. But I'm also looking at payroll...even though reports are the Twins may be buyers and keep their payroll about the same...as well as 40 man spots with additions to be made.

 

I appreciate concern about Buxton's availability. And once again we hope for the best. But can you slend $ and a roster spot for a backup CF when you have guys who can at least cover CF short term and still have Celestino on the roster as a talent up and comer?

 

Between what you have, and the possibility of Hernandez as a super utility option, I'm not sure I'm sold on Almora unless you believe his bat is worth re-claiming and/or you may trade one of your young OF in a deal.

[tony&rodney]

The post concerns non-tendered outfielders and both Almora and Dahl are good baseball players. They may blossom with fresh starts.

DocBauer makes it simple though - payroll. What will payroll be next season?

If it is around $110+ million .... hmmm? I foresee troubles.

If it is $120-130 million range, the Twins have excellent options.

If it is the same as last year, then the team should be really good.

I'm hoping the Twins proceed aggressively toward a $120 million minimum payroll.

This allows for a few trades and signings and hopefully soon.

Almora works at any price, but Dahl only works with a higher payroll.