Trade Retrospective: How Did the Twins Do in the Brian Dozier Trade?

[Cody Christie]

Back in 2018, the Twins made five trades in the days leading into the trade deadline. Minnesota was able to acquire 12 players and some of those players are now moving up the organization’s top prospect rankings. Brian Dozier was a Minnesota fan favorite, but his trade for Logan Forsythe, Luke Raley, and Devin Smeltzer has had ripple effects over the last two years.Time can change the view of a trade, so here’s what was said back in 2018 at the time of the deal.

 

What Did People Say at the Time of the Trade?

Los Angeles had been interested in Dozier for multiple years, but a deal never materialized. Minnesota’s asking price included Walker Buehler or Cody Bellinger and it’s clear now why the Dodgers wanted to hang on to these young assets. The Dodgers eventually dealt Jose De Leon to Tampa Bay for Logan Forsythe who became part of this trade.

 

"Our lineup against left-handed pitching has been a concern of ours, particularly over the last month or two," said Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi. "When teams can game plan and stack their pitching when they think you have a weakness on a certain side, to bring in a right-handed bat gives our lineup really good balance."

 

Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey said, "Brian has been a meaningful part of this franchise. This an opportunity for him to go to a winning ballclub that was in the World Series last year and with their roster is looking to maybe finish it off this time. We just felt like for us as an organization, this was the right time to make this decision. We were able to acquire some talent we feel can help us build toward a championship future."

 

Logan Forsythe was included in the deal to off-set Dozier’s salary and this allowed the Twins to acquire a couple of intriguing prospects in Luke Raley and Devin Smeltzer. Raley was LA’s 26th best prospect entering the season, and this is what Baseball America had to say about him at the time.

 

“Raley is a muscular lefthanded hitter with a potent bat. He shows power to all fields, and has the bat speed and swing path to get to it without sacrificing average…Raley isn’t overly explosive or toolsy, but he does a lot of things well and optimistic evaluators see the chance for him to become an everyday left fielder who hits 20 or more home runs a season”

 

As far as Smeltzer, Baseball America said, “Smeltzer has decent command and an above-average changeup, but his fastball has ticked down from 90-93 mph to 88-90 in his starts this season… Smeltzer throws strikes, and his ticket to the majors will be if he can improve against lefthanded batters (currently batting .289/.326/.446 against him) and rise as a lefty specialist.”

 

Dozier’s Los Angeles Time

After joining the Dodgers, Dozier played in 47 regular season games while hitting .182/.300/.350 (.650) with five home runs and nine doubles. Los Angeles made a run to the World Series that year and Dozier played in 11 of the team’s postseason games. He went 2-for-16 with no extra-base hits and five walks. Boston walked away with the title and Dozier walked away in free agency. Baseball Reference gives him a 0.2 WAR for his LA stint, and he had a negative win probability added in the postseason.

 

Minnesota’s Trade Return

Forsythe played in 50 games for the Twins and he saw his numbers improve compared to what he had done in Los Angeles that season. He hit .258 with a .356 OBP, but he didn’t hit for much power. He was a free agent following the season and went on to sign with the Texas Rangers.

 

Raley headed to Double-A with the Twins and hit .276/.371/.449 with eight extra-base hits in just under 100 at-bats. He headed to the Arizona Fall League and went 3-for-14 while only appearing in four games. His 2019 season was limited due to a dislocated tendon in his left ankle, which limited him to 38 games. It’s too bad because he was off to a strong start at Triple-A as he already had eight home runs and an .878 OPS. He’d go back to the AFL following the season and hit .244/.312/.439 with nine extra-base hits in 82 at-bats.

 

Last winter, Raley was traded back to the Dodgers as part of the Kenta Maeda deal. This means Smeltzer is the lone piece of this trade still in the Twins organization. While the Dodgers had been using Smeltzer as a reliever, Minnesota gave him an opportunity to start in 2019. Between Double- and Triple-A, he posted a 2.76 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 104 strikeouts in 104 1/3 innings.

 

At the big-league level, he also showed some promise as he started six games and appeared in 11 games total. As a starter, he had a 4.11 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP over 30 2/3 innings. He struck out 22 and limited batters to hitting .239/.294/.410. This season Smeltzer appeared in seven games and pitched multiple innings in all but one appearance. In his first appearance, he got shelled for five earned runs, but he’d post a 4.50 ERA the rest of the way.

 

Who Won the Trade?

At the time, Tom wrote at Twins Daily and gave the Twins a D-grade for this trade. One of his biggest reasons for that was the inclusion of Forsythe in the deal and the possibility that the Twins might not have maximized their return with the other trades that took place leading into the deadline. Hindsight might be 20-20, but this trade is now looking a little more favorable for the Twins.

 

Dozier didn’t do much with his time in LA and the Twins weren’t likely going to extend him a qualifying offer. Minnesota has better corner outfield prospects than Raley, so it was probably easier for the team to include him in the Maeda deal. Plus, the Twins got back the runner-up for AL Cy Young this year, so not too shabby. Smeltzer may never reproduce his 2019 numbers, but he looks like he might be able to fill a big-league role for multiple seasons.

 

Looking back, what do you think about the trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

If you missed any of the previous posts in this series:

 

-Ryan Pressly Trade

 

-Eduardo Escobar Trade

 

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[Otwins]

Both sides lost.

[HrbieFan]

Have to give the W to the Twins. Dozier and Forsythe were a wash the rest of the year, but the Twins get a long reliever/5th SP that is under team control for a number of years. Smeltzer isn't an ace, but he is more than a capable big league pitcher with decent numbers

[bighat]

It's a push, nobody really got anything out of this deal. I suppose if you pressed me, I'd give a slight edge to the Twins but it's pretty insignificant in terms of the team's big picture.

[AceWrigley]

Just the fact that we still have Smeltz and Raley helped us get Maeda makes this a good trade for the Twins. I'm not sure either Dozier or Forsythe have much value left. Of course if Raley provides quality MLB at bats for a few years, it could tip the balance.

[RedBull34]

 

Just the fact that we still have Smeltz and Raley helped us get Maeda makes this a good trade for the Twins. I'm not sure either Dozier or Forsythe have much value left. Of course if Raley provides quality MLB at bats for a few years, it could tip the balance.

I don't think that what Raley does going forward can do anything but make this deal look better.

 

If Raley turns into Mike Trout, that's a damnation of the Maeda trade, not the Dozier one.  

 

But I don't think anybody is regretting the Maeda trade right now.

[jud6312]

I'd say it's still incomplete until we see what exactly Smeltzer can become.

 

If, however, he ends up a AAAA guy riding the Green Line back and forth until he's cut loose, then it's a push.

 

If getting Raley back was the piece that helped land Maeda, then it's very slight advantage Twins. But if they'd really dug their heels in and said "we're not adding him," I highly doubt the Dodgers would've nixed the deal. He was a sweetener to make it look like a bigger return for a recognizable veteran - just like he was to the Twins.

[railmarshalljon]

 

I'd say it's still incomplete until we see what exactly Smeltzer can become.

 

If, however, he ends up a AAAA guy riding the Green Line back and forth until he's cut loose, then it's a push.

 

If getting Raley back was the piece that helped land Maeda, then it's very slight advantage Twins. But if they'd really dug their heels in and said "we're not adding him," I highly doubt the Dodgers would've nixed the deal. He was a sweetener to make it look like a bigger return for a recognizable veteran - just like he was to the Twins.

 

I'd say if Smeltz ends up being a AAAA guy the Twins won this trade because there's a bit of value in that type of guy and Dozier hit under the Mendoza line in 47 games. 

 

As for Raley, he's a 1B/Corner OF which we always seem to have a surplus of. I wouldn't think twice about him if not for the team that asked for him has a decent track record of finding value in castoffs and bubble players..

[dex8425]

Twins won. Smeltzer has already given the big league club more value than half a season of Dozier, who has been downright bad ever since he left the Twins. I really liked Doz, but the Twins were smart to trade him and get something of value. 

[Dman]

Personally I was wondering if LA thought the Twins robbed them with the Dozier trade thus got half of those assets back in Raley in the next trade.  Given Doziers production and the fact they were not going to resign him make it a win IMO.  I mean even just the HOPE of something worthwhile coming back would have been worth it as the alternative was nothing, zip, nada. I would have rather had hope than nothing at all.

 

At least Smeltzer made it and I think he will end up a decent reliever in time.  Has to stop giving up HR balls first though. For me the Twins won this trade the moment they made it.  I guess you could argue they could have gotten more but it seems unlikely IMO.

[Joey Self]

I have to agree with those that say that it appears to be a slight advantage to the Twins so far.  

But I write not to echo others but rather to say that I enjoy these kinds of pieces.  Good work. 

 

JcS

[Alex Schieferdecker]

Twins obviously won the trade, by getting something for nothing.

 

But given what both teams thought they were getting, seems fair to say that nobody really won.

[prouster]

Maeda is part of the transaction tree. Clear win for the Twins. It’s not close at all.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Dodgers went to the World Series that year. Tough crowd.

 

But let’s wait and see what becomes of the Kenta Maeda—Luke Raley trade, as it’s come to be known here.

 

Bottom line: Who was the winner of the Brian Dozier trade? Brian Dozier, and it’s not that close.

[Trov]

I remember the rumors prior to season start and wanted Twins to pull trigger then.  I do not fully recall with either of the top prospects were included in the offer or just Twins were asking for either. I remember thinking the offer pre-season was better than later in season.  

 

I also remember thinking people, locally mainly, overvaluing Dozier.  We will never know what actually offered pre-season but feel pulling trigger then would have been better offer.  Not sure much will come from Smeltzer, but at least we got something for Dozier, because waiting would have netted nothing.