Relying On Rebounds

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins saw plenty of their star hitters struggle in 2020, and the offense was a shell of itself as a result. With Eddie Rosario out of the picture and Nelson Cruz’s status up in the air, it’s more important than ever to see some rebounds. Some rebounds are more important than others however.There were several disappointments in Twins territory in 2020, but nothing let us down quite like the offense. Three hitters in particular really ate most of the regression, and their rebounds will be key for the Twins to remain a juggernaut in 2021.

 

3. Mitch Garver

Garver had one of the weirdest seasons of any of the Twins in 2020. We heard reports of Garver dominating summer camp after his .995 OPS and 155 wRC+ in 2019. Instead of an encore, Garver cratered to a .511 OPS and 41 wRC+ mark. He showed the same game changing skills when it came to plate discipline and exit velocity, but struggled to make consistent contact. We may never know what happened to Garver in 2020, but he did go down with an oblique injury mid season that some hypothesize may have been an issue for longer than reported.

 

We’d love to see Garver perform even at 80% of his 2019 level, but his doing so isn’t of the utmost importance on this list. The Twins have a great defender and solid young bat behind the plate in Ryan Jeffers. The best case scenario is a fantastic catching tandem, but Garver’s 2021 worst case scenario may not quite leave the Twins hands completely tied.

 

2. Max Kepler

The main thing weighing down Kepler’s 2020 was his success against left-handed pitching. His .880 OPS and 129 wRC+ in 2019 against southpaws dropped to a putrid .378 OPS and 5 wRC+. Lefties typically struggle against left handed pitching to some extent, but Kepler’s 2020 marks were simply a disaster. This could probably be attributed to the small sample size of 60 games, as Kepler has had multiple seasons of performing better against same handed pitching and looked to heat up to end 2020.

 

That being said, Kepler was a huge reason for the Twins struggles against left-handed pitching last year at the top of the lineup. He’s going to continue to be relied upon heavily and his ability to even put up respectable splits would go a long way in helping the Twins offense as a whole. In terms of his career success, Kepler needs to return to his 2020 ways to become the superstar we’ve hoped for. No matter how athletic he is in the field and how hard he hits righties, an inability to hit lefties will hold him back. Here’s hoping Kepler readjusts in 2021.

 

1. Jorge Polanco

If Kepler’s splits were a disaster, Polanco’s 2020 offensive performance has no fitting definition. The 2019 All Star shortstop was one of the worst regulars in the Twins lineup with a .658 OPS and 80 wRC+. Polanco appeared to avoid strikeouts at all costs in 2020. His career low K rate was accompanied by a career low walk rate and slugging percentage. The good news is that this change at the plate may not have been a conscious adjustment by Polanco. The bad news is that it may have been a result of Polanco’s ailing ankle that required his second ankle surgery in as many years.

 

Polanco is a player the Twins need to contribute. Short of signing a free agent, there’s no immediate contingency plan at shortstop with Royce Lewis’ timeline in question. A return to All Star form would be welcomed, but even a rebound to league average offense at the bottom of the order for Polanco would make all the difference. Jorge was a plenty valuable hitter even before the 2019 breakout. His 2021 may be completely dependent on his health.

 

2021 will be an interesting season when it comes to seeing what we really have as a core. After several disappointments in 2020, the Twins ceiling of success may ride heavily on some bounce backs. Do you agree with the top three players listed? Do you feel confident about rebounds from all or any of them? Let us know below!

 

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[AceWrigley]

I blame China.

[ScrapTheNickname]

l

[Doctor Gast]

2020 was a terrible season, successful baseball players love routine & try to get in a groove & maintain it. Garver is such a player, the sporadic season was disastrous for him

2020 had many distractions, successful ball player needs to focus & distant himself from these distractions. Kepler was a victim to these distractions & IMO never really was able to distance himself from them.

2020 had many health problems, this          category              is             where Polanco falls into. SS is a very important position & Polanco sees the need & importance & tries to meet that need. The problem is that he`s focusing on playing beyond himself, putting a lot of  emotional & physical stress on himself. That stress causes problems. I say he needs to be shifted to 2B, which relieves the emotional & physical stress, then     he can relax & be that all star that he's capable of. Much like Brian Dozier

Hope these & other problems can be resolved in 2021. My expectations is that they will & we'll have a record season. 

[yeahyabetcha]

I am willing to throw out the 2020 performances, but also don’t expect any to get back to their 2019 numbers either. Hopefully, they can all be healthy and have a normal year. Which for Polanco and Garver is to be solid top or middle of the lineup guys , with ok defense. Kepler is a platoon right fielder, and should sit against most lefty starters in favor of Marwin (or Marwin replacement) or Rooker

[Major League Ready]

Donaldson was not a Twin in 2019 but he was healthy and produced a 900 OPS over 659 AB. He could be a big boost.

 

How about Sano? His OPS went from 923 in 2019 to 757. He was a beast in 2019. Not so much in 2020.

[Doctor Gast]

 

I am willing to throw out the 2020 performances, but also don’t expect any to get back to their 2019 numbers either. Hopefully, they can all be healthy and have a normal year. Which for Polanco and Garver is to be solid top or middle of the lineup guys , with ok defense. Kepler is a platoon right fielder, and should sit against most lefty starters in favor of Marwin (or Marwin replacement) or Rooker

Agreed, we can`t expect the same results of a juiced ball in 2019 be the same as a non-juiced ball season. A juiced ball favors hitters while a non-juiced ball favors pitchers

[mikelink45]

We need a whole team rebound.  Arraez needs to be healthy and play, Donaldson needs to be healthy and play and Polanco needs to be healthy and play and yes Sano, Buxton, Kepler need to produce and Garver needs to find a bat. 

 

The big stories in 2020 were Jeffers and Rooker.  

With Cruz and Eddie gone lets see someone else produce the RBIs that every seems to think is so easy to do - just bat 3/4!!!  

 

In 2020 some of our fate will be on the shoulders of the two rookies above and Alex Kiriloff.  Maybe even Larnach and Lewis before the season is over.

[mike8791]

The 3 payers cited above obviously fell off from 2019.  But its pretty obvious 2019 was an aberration, especially when it came to HRs.  So I don't put a lot of emphasis on these 3 players' bounceback numbers in 2021.  If Garver doesn't rebound we have Jeffers who would undoubtedly move up to #1 receiver if Garvs slump continues.  Kepler's contribution in 2020 was above average for a RF.  I would be happy if he was just a little more consistent.  And Polanco had a decent year, both offensively and defensively.  Yes, we'd like to see a bump in his slugging %, but this would be a bonus for that position, not a must.

 

For this offense to show a significant improvement next year, healthy seasons by Buxton and Donaldson are the key.  Look how much better the Twins' offense was when these two were in the lineup together.  Yes, SSS, but their offensive prowess when healthy is a given and fully productive seasons from them would alleviate the loss of Cruz and Rosario.

[h2oface]

The whole team played worse (whether by actual performance or being on the field) in 2019 than in the total of the shortened 2020 (except Maeda, who wasn't on the team in 2019 - does Jeffers count? no MLB experience to compare?). But yet, none of the prospects were given a shot to supplant them during 2020. When you are in first, or so close to it, it is hard to make that move, but yet, they put Kirilloff in cold IN THE PLAYOFFS! So go figure. The whole team needs to rebound.... or we just saw the open window's counter weight break and now it is closed.

[dbminn]

Second on my list are the utility players. Marwin (.606 OPS) and Adrianza (.557) had a terrible 2020. They were around .750 in 2019, with about the same percentage of team PAs. 

 

The Twins have had a lot of injuries the past couple of years. They need at least one utility player that can hit at league average.