Alternate Universe: Would 3 Core Twins Survive the Non-Tender Deadline?

[Nate Palmer]

Eddie Rosario was recently non-tendered by the Minnesota Twins. If Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler weren't on long term deal how would they have fared?Eddie Rosario has been part of a Minnesota Twins core that helped lead the team to back to back AL Central championships. From his charismatic way of playing the game, coining the name “Bomba Squad”, and his play on the field he has contributed in significant ways to this era of the Twins.

 

Unfortunately for Eddie, he does find himself as a free agent after being non-tendered earlier this week. While he has been important to the team, he was one of that core that came up together not on a team-friendly, long term deal. What might have happened to any of those other three who came up through the minors with Eddie if they found themselves still in arbitration?

 

That is the question we will attempt to at least ponder, maybe answer, in what follows. First, as a base, here are some stats from each of the four over the past two seasons:

 

Download attachment: NateNumbers.png

 

Miguel Sano

 

Sano is potentially one of the more interesting cases in this exercise. His contract number is already higher than what was Rosario’s projected arbitration (somewhere around $10 million) at $11 million. He also fills that heavy need of a right-handed power bat, but not without his own set of frustrations.

 

Sano at his best is smashing home runs with incredible exit velocities. He also represents 30+ home runs per season with a ceiling that looks much higher. His downgrades are that his defensive position is viewed as easily replaceable and he continues to strike out at a high clip. Since Rosario is sort of our baseline here, when comparing the two directly, Sano still gets on base more due in part to his ability to still draw walks.

 

If Sano was up for arbitration this season, his saving grace may be his potential and his handedness. Especially with Nelson Cruz potentially not coming back into the locker room next season. It very well seems possible that as good as Sano can be, a cheaper and more versatile player may be given the nod over Sano in order to save money to be used elsewhere.

 

Jorge Polanco

 

Polanco has shown the ability to be a plus offensive player at the prime position of shortstop. Although, his plus bat does come at the expense of some poor fielding. While his defense seems to be the biggest hit to Polanco’s resume, his ability to even be sub-par at shortstop is also his biggest plus. In the end, he can still line up at shortstop. There seems to still be faith in Polanco even after a bad offensive performance in 2020. Which may be chalked up to continued struggles with ankle injuries.

 

His down 2020 would have certainly hindered any increased earning Polanco may have gained via this fictitious arbitration process. Even with a healthy increase, Polanco’s flexibility plus his bat would have helped him remain on the Twins roster.

 

Best case in this scenario seems to be that Polanco would be tendered a contract and remain the Twins starting shortstop. Worst case may be something that is already being floated. Polanco is still tendered a contract and becomes the utility player for 2021. The Twins don’t have anyone readily available to replace what Polanco provides and are already trying to replace Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza, so he would likely be safe.

 

Max Kepler

 

In light of Rosario’s non-tender, Kepler’s case becomes the most interesting. As you can see above, a lot of their offensive stats are pretty similar. Especially when it comes to some more traditional and counting stats. Rosario does find an edge in batting average and RBIs (although he was a cleanup hitter while Kepler was primarily leadoff), while Kepler takes that advantage in on-base percentage and walks.

 

If the situations were reversed this year, and Rosario had the team friendly contract while Kepler was up for a $10 million arbitration figure, it would not be crazy to have his name floated as a non-tender candidate because of the guys coming up behind him. The aspect of his game that separates Kepler from Rosario is his defense and that his walks help him be an offensive asset even when he isn’t getting hits.

 

Maybe I am letting my own preferences get in the way here, but Kepler seems like the sort of player a team like the Twins would want to hold on to. If the Twins didn’t in this made up scenario, it would truly be a sign of them needing to save money.

 

Sano potentially out. Polanco and Kepler stay. How do you think the Twins would handle tendering or non-tendering this trio of core players?

 

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[mikelink45]

I like this because I am not a Kepler fan - like you - and I think if we remove all external influences he should be wandering the free agent market too and I think he has less value.  Polanco will always have value because he is a SS.  Sano is over priced and the line you wrote - "his best is smashing home runs with incredible exit velocities" is one that always gets to me.  Do they give extra runs for distance or velocity?

 

I would rank them by value:

Polanco

Rosario

Kepler

Sano

if all the dollars and contracts were equal.

[darin617]

Polanco would have been a non tender without a doubt. There's a reason why the Twins are looking at SS on the free agent market. Polanco will turn into a utility player. There is no reason to have a poor defensive SS if you can take advantage of the current market and improve the team defense.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

...

 

Sano is over priced and the line you wrote - "his best is smashing home runs with incredible exit velocities" is one that always gets to me. Do they give extra runs for distance or velocity?

...

 

 

To my knowledge, no extra runs are given for an extra long homerun. But it is easier to hit a routine fly ball than a homerun, and with increased exit velocity, more of those cans of corn will clear the fence. Also liners and grounders are more likely to find a hole if they get there faster.

 

So he may still benefit from more refinement, but hitting the ball harder does tend to lead to better results and more runs given a similar contact profile.

 

As to the over all question, the other core Twins would also get tendered or not based on the talent behond them. They still could get traded, but with their contracts, it would need to be a really good return.

[RedBull34]

 

Polanco would have been a non tender without a doubt. There's a reason why the Twins are looking at SS on the free agent market. Polanco will turn into a utility player. There is no reason to have a poor defensive SS if you can take advantage of the current market and improve the team defense.

Why?  The Twins would tender him and make him the utility player at worst.  Marwin is gone.  His bat was quite good in 2019!  That's a great player type to take a gamble on!

[RedBull34]

Sano has just really got to figure out how to cut the K's down.  His walk rate is fine, his power is prodigious.

 

But he has less AB's then the other three and at least 99+ K's over the rest.  It's killing his #'s.

[prouster]

To me, Kepler is clearly a better player than Rosario and probably wouldn’t have to worry about being non-tendered had he not signed his extension.

[lukeduke1980]

If Sano is retained through this offseason, it's hopefully because there is a plan to get him to cut down on Ks.  Otherwise I could have imagined him being non-tendered above the others.

[Major League Ready]

I think you were on an interesting path had you compared these players contributions to winning back to back Central titles. However, I don’t know how we can come to the conclusion Rosario lead the 2019 Twins to a division Championship? He was 11th in WAR, not for the entire team, just among position players. His OPS wRC+ was 103. Sano 137, Kepler 121, and Polanco 119. If we are talking about “leading” the Twins, Cruz and Garver were the offensive leaders.

 

2020 was an odd duck. The only offensive star was Nelson Cruz with a wRC+ of 164. Rosario was at 110 and Kepler 107. A 110 wRC+ and below average defense is not leading a team to a division Championship. I would say the pitching staff led the effort to win the Central in 2020.

 

What if Sano/Kepler and Polanco were arbitration eligible? All three would have been hard calls. Sano the most likely to be non-tendered because that position is easiest to replace. Kepler is 1 year removed from a 4.4 WAR season and he provides back-up in CF. He is also 1 ½ younger than Rosario and had been trending up until this crazy year. He likely would have been tendered a contract. Polanco is probably the most likely to have been tendered a contract because he plays a premium position and he too was great before the Covid season.

[TopGunn#22]

Those of you who have read my comments know this is why I keep saying "Trade Sano."

Here's how they rank for me:

1.  Kepler

2.  Polanco

3.  Sano

4. Rosario

 

Had Kepler been hitting #4 or #5 and Rosario leadoff the numbers would have been even more starkly in favor of Kepler.  As was stated he's superior defensively and is a year and half younger.  He's reached 36 HR's Rosario only 32.

 

Polanco is a SS with below average "D." That's why a trade for Trevor Story or a signing like Simmons/Semian intrigues me.  I'd like to see us get better up the middle defensively.  Polanco could transition to that Super-Utility guy but so could Arraez.

I'd love to see a trade for Ketel Marte.  He's a good 2B-man who could also play a little SS and a LOT of CF.

If Buxton was to get hurt the Twins could put Marte out in CF and Arraez at 2B for an extended time.  Imagine our up the middle "D" with Simmons at SS, Marte at 2B and Buxton in CF.  

Polanco is only set to make 4.33 million this year.  But depending on what that increases to in 2022 he may eventually become a trade or non-tender candidate.  Jorge needs to bounce back with a strong year offensively to retain some value.  He will always be a liability defensively.   

[prouster]

Just to clear things up after seeing a couple posts: a player cannot be non-tendered if they have signed a fully guaranteed contract. All MLB contracts are fully guaranteed. They can be bought out or released, but the non-tender applies only to those who have reached but not exhausted their arbitration years.

[Doctor Gast]

W/ due respect-  Kepler, Polanco & Sano all got extended contracts because the FO sees their full       potential. This covid nightmare was disastrous to all of MLB & MiLB.  Like all nightmares, they should be put behind us & dream of better days & not play any futile exercises. If we would`ve lost them w/o any compensation, that`d be a worse nightmare 

[Dennesey55347]

None of these guys is a starter on a contender.

[Major League Ready]

 

None of these guys is a starter on a contender.

 

They had a phenomenal offense in 2019 when all three were starters. Kepler was 6th in WAR among RFers .2 WAR behind Bryce harper. Polanco had .4 less WAR than Lindor and made the all-star team. They were somewhat of a contender. Better pitching and they would have been a serious contender so your position does not make much sense IMO.

[Rosterman]

I remember all the talk about second base being the better position for Polanco. He made a smart move, signing for the distance. If his value increases, he becomes a tradable sort. But in the scheme of things, I would not have seen the Twins going to arbitration. They would've pushed Lewis faster. Now they don't. WIll be interesting to see Arraez in 2021. And also if Nick Gordon gets some playtime.

 

Sano. We want him to be our answer to Boston's Ortiz. We fear cutting him loose (or trading him) and having him become the second-coming of Ortiz for someone else. The Twins kinda got a bargain to wait-and-see. The question is if he has a huge season in 2021, do you longterm him even more? (I keep remembering Dark Star talking about Cristin Guzman getting the multi-year contract rom the Twins, how IT WAS A great deal for the Twins, but a better deal for a guy who not feel he ahs to play that hard anymore).

 

Kepler is a student of baseball. He is a sponge. He seems to be over analyzing things at times. He has the talent, he has the drive. But at some point you weigh the cost vs. replacement cost. He would be gambled on for anotehr arbitration season, but the Twins (and him) did good with the extension.

 

Which shows you the foibles of arbitration. Eddie entered 2020 knowing he would make $8-12 million in 2021 with the Twins, if he put up the numbers. He wasn't going to make less, unless the Twins cut him. At worst, NO ONE WANTED TO GRAB HIM FOR ARBITRATION. He was maybe hoping he would be offered $20 mil for two seasons...maybe. Now that he is free, he might only be signed for $5-7 million, and for a single season. Or maybe he takes that contract for a guaranteed $20 million for three years. You can't pay your own players less, unless you come back at them again from the free market, and then you have maybe burned bridges...so why would the play wish to return if still in a good position in their career. 

 

Same with Wisler. A gamble for another year perhaps. But the chance of a $2 million fightout was considered unnecessary. Maybe Matt will get a two-year deal for that from someone else, or maybe not. This one will be interesting to watch.

 

It is why you look at trading players before they go to year three or arbitration, if they don't love you back. And, like pending free agents, the ball IS in the court of the player playing for that BIG contract tomorrow or long-term. It's the gamble where you also sign guys pre-arbitration for 4-5-option years if possible.

[Dennesey55347]

 

They had a phenomenal offense in 2019 when all three were starters. Kepler was 6th in WAR among RFers .2 WAR behind Bryce harper. Polanco had .4 less WAR than Lindor and made the all-star team. They were somewhat of a contender. Better pitching and they would have been a serious contender so your position does not make much sense IMO.

You legitimized their starter status off of one season...and all 3 have played 5+. All 3 boast non-existent stats in post-season play, all 3 have career average/below average OBP, None feature a stellar career ave. Only Polanco has a chance to be a consistent offensive contributor for a FULL season, as clearly proven in the first 1/3 of each's career. You forgot to name me one contender that would switch out one of theirs for one of these guys. Rosario, our best run-producer, glided right through waivers...