Always Think Big: What If the Twins Exceed Our Payroll Expectations?

[Nash Walker]

After a projected team record-setting $142 million payroll in 2020, the Twins are expected to cut back spending with the rest of the industry… but what if they don’t?It’s been an assumption that with losses related to the pandemic in 2020, the Twins would almost certainly reduce their payroll 10 to 15%. That may not be the case. What if they jump the market and make serious splashes outside of the top tier?

 

Here’s my wish list:

 

1. Re-sign Nelson Cruz for 1-year, $17 million w/ a 2022 team option, $15M

 

The Twins’ desire to keep Cruz is well-known. In a scenario where their payroll is around $145 million, slightly more than it was before the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, keeping Cruz at a premium is a much less painful task. With more spending room for next season, the Twins can load Cruz on a one year deal and avoid a multi-year commitment to the 40-year-old heartbeat of the team.

 

2. Re-sign Jake Odorizzi for 3-years, $39 million

 

The Twins also have interest in bringing back Odorizzi, per MLB Trade Rumors. This move makes too much sense. Odorizzi can slot right in as the Twins’ fourth (or third) starter, a perfect spot. What makes Odorizzi more desirable is the stunning lack of top-tier options on the free-agent market after Trevor Bauer, whom the Twins aren’t expected to pursue.Odorizzi has produced 6.9 fWAR since 2018, ranking 33rd among starters and one spot behind Kenta Maeda and Lucas Giolito.

 

3. Sign LHP James Paxton for 2-years, $22 million

 

Paxton’s injury history is riddled, but from 2016 to 2019, he still averaged 142 innings per season. That’s far from ideal and his 2020 was disastrous, reducing his price and raising questions all over the board. His upside remains dreamable. Among starters who’ve pitched at least 750 innings since Paxton’s debut in 2013, he ranks 12th in FIP (3.31), 13th in strikeout rate (26.5%), 19th in opponent OPS (.676), and 27th in ERA (3.58). He’s a top-of-the-rotation arm at full strength. Then why so cheap? Well, who knows if you’ll ever get him at full strength. That’s a risk the Twins should be willing to take at this point in their contention window.

 

4. Sign RHPs Joakim Soria and Tyler Clippard for $8 million combined

 

Clippard and his changeup were a welcomed addition to the 2020 Twins. He struck out 26 in 26 innings with a 2.77 ERA. Of note, Clippard has never been placed on the injured list in his storied 14 season career. Soria is another veteran relief addition who could solidfy the back of the bullpen. With adjustments he made in Oakland, Soria unlocked a new gear. Clippard on a slight raise at $3 million and Soria at $5 million would quickly make up for some of the loss provided by Trevor May, Sergio Romo, and Matt Wisler.

 

5. Sign SS Marcus Semien for 1-year, $15 million

 

This would be where the Twins pounce this market. Guys like Semien will likely take pillow contracts as teams are cutting payroll. Pushing Jorge Polanco into the utility role fills another vacancy, and the Twins would add the fourth most valuable shortstop in baseball over the last three seasons.

 

2021 26-MAN ROSTER AND PAYROLL:

 

3B Josh Donaldson - $21.75 million

DH Nelson Cruz - $17 million

SS Marcus Semien - $15 million

1B/DH Miguel Sanó - $12.33 million

OF Max Kepler - $6.5 million

OF Byron Buxton - $5.125 million

SS Jorge Polanco - $4.33 million

C Mitch Garver - $1.875 million

C Ryan Jeffers - $575,000

2B Luis Arraez - $575,000

OF Jake Cave - $575,000

UTIL Travis Blankenhorn - $575,000

 

SP Jake Odorizzi - $13 million

SP James Paxton - $11 million

SP Michael Pineda - $10 million

SP José Berríos - $6.1 million

SP Kenta Maeda - $3.125 million (w/ incentives)

SP Randy Dobnak - $575,000

 

RP Taylor Rogers - $6 million

RP Joakim Soria - $5 million

RP Tyler Clippard - $3 million

RP Tyler Duffey - $2.2 million

RP Caleb Thielbar - $700,000

RP Jorge Alcalá - $575,000

RP Cody Stashak - $575,000

RP Ian Gibaut - $575,000

 

*Projected above moves

 

2021 26-MAN ROSTER PAYROLL - $148.6 MILLION

2020 26-MAN ROSTER PAYROLL - $142 MILLION

 

What do you think? Comment below!

 

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[Doctor Gast]

We can only hope. They surprised us w/ the Donaldson deal. On top of my list is resigning Cruz, I'd  guess they'd try for less. The FO hasn't reacted yet to any real deals (they never do, they wait until the end & get the best   deals they can) so I don`t imagine they don't have any set FA they're dead set to sign. I imagine that this year we 'll have a  big selection to choose from. We'll see if any these that you selected   get signed. I'd guess they go after a overlooked pitcher that they can tweak at a bargain. If they go for an upgrade at SS, I`d put Polanco at 2B rather than utility. Any hole they can`t fill via FA they'll try w/ trades

[mnfireman]

Not a fan of Semien, his 2019 season is an outlier to the rest of his career, and there were questions concerning "juiced" baseballs that season, so a hard "NO" from me.

 

Paxton or Odorizzi, not both. I would actually like Bailey and Hill in those two spots.

 

I am OK with re-signing Cruz and Clippard, both have value and a proven track record. I also think Soria would be a good signing as long as there is no bidding war, set a price and stick with it.

 

I don't think payroll is going to go up or they would not have DFA'd Rosario. I think they would have signed him and looked for a trade partner at the deadline.

[Brandon]

I wonder if Hill is a possible resign candidate? Though with our pitching prospects being almost ready I think just an Odorizzi signing would be enough for the rotation.

 

I think on offense we need a higher on base percentage. That is our biggest problem only solo home runs....

[Brandon]

I agree with mnfireman that payroll is not going up or they would resign May and not nontender Wisler. For 1.5 million give or take he isn't that big of a risk to resign. I do like your bullpen ideas though Soria could possibly get a 2 year deal.

[Brandon]

Lastly, it will be a disappointment if they are not able to resign Cruz. While we have 3 good hitting prospects ready to go, they are not likely to match Cruz production. We do need a good bench player. I haven't studied our options in a while.

[tony&rodney]

Yes to a budget that is equal to last Spring, before Covid overtook our world. The demand for entertainment will be high this summer and people will fill the stadium from July to October with a strong team to support. 

Nash, you proposed a trade for Ketel Marte at one point and I still wonder what this would demand from the Twin's side. I'm guessing that Nelson Cruz would agree to 2/$26, but what do I know. Another item of interest for me is the availability of Royce Lewis as a player to use 5-6 days per week. This year the team really should use a young pitcher as a #5 starting pitcher. I propose Duran or Dobnak with the other in the bullpen. Is there a way to get Lance Lynn for lesser prospects? Many on this site think Lynn is a waste, but he seems to have another year of bullets. I'm fine with Kluber and/or Hill and think Walker might be a bargain, if not a difficult signing. The player I would target above all others is Liam Hendriks; velocity and control is a solid combination.

The idea of a budget around $140 million is very feasible and my hope is that the Twins agree, sign and trade for the right players, and make a bundle of profit in 2021 winning it all.

[Vanimal46]

If they exceed last year's payroll number, it opens up a world of possibilities. Free agency is cool, but trading is where the opportunities really get fun. Instead of spending $24 million for Odo and Paxton, why not take on the last year of Scherzer's contract at $27 million? More teams than not will be looking to rebuild or find salary relief than take it on. The Twins would be zigging while everyone else is zagging. 

[tony&rodney]

I just signed Trevor Bauer for a team budget of $146 million. Think Big - Yes.

[ashbury]

Semien has a better glove than Marwin Gonzalez, but on offense their resumes (prior to Marwin joining the Twins) look similar. So I echo the opinion offered above, to be skeptical. Only 1 year means there's not much risk, but I'm not thinking the reward upside is that high either, and $15M sounds like top dollar.

[mnfireman]

Maybe Lynn will come here with a better attitude this time, but his time here sucked. He signed late (for a ton of $$$), came in out of shape and stunk the place up. I liked him and thought it was a good signing, but his time here was not good.

[yeahyabetcha]

It sure is easy to spend someone else’s money......

[Danchat]

I would guess the Twins Opening Day payroll will be in the neighborhood of $115-120M... I don't see this happening. I believe I had predicted $135-140M range last year and I was pretty close.

[Dr. Evil]

Love the Semien idea and then have Blankenhorn and Polanco as utilities.

[jkcarew]

Didn’t do the deal with Polanco last year for him to become a bench player. In a hypothetical scenario where the Twins have Semien on a multi-year deal, Polanco is the everyday 2nd baseman or he’s traded.

[mikelink45]

Keep dreaming

[tony&rodney]

 

Keep dreaming

That's all we got. I took your comment to mean we should keep dreaming. Why not?

If the Twins can't invest in a winter where uncertainty provides some unusual opportunities, then the team will slide down the standings, attention to the games will diminish, and it is back to the dark years.

Kirilloff and the other wunderkind need a strong set of veterans to help them succeed. I absolutely want to see a few rookies on the team next April.

Profits can be made with a choice to overlook the caution that is prevalent from Covid-19. The larger picture of the Twins finances show strength in both valuation and running profits versus loss over the past decade. Successful businesses do lose money on occasion and look for the chances to recoup their investments at the proper time. My idea is that the budget this year ranges from $135-145 million.

That's my dream. Why not?

[TopGunn#22]

I'm with tony&rodney !!  (and by the way, what a great moniker paying homage to my favorite Twin--Tony O and the greatest hitter in Twins history "Rodney").

 

The Twins need to be aggressive in this "unique" time period.  The Pohlads are LOADED.  They can afford to be "smartly" aggressive.  

 

Sign Cruz (1-year 14 million.  Option year $12-$13 million).

Sign Hendricks.  We need a proven, elite closer on the back end.  He makes our BP "Elite."

Trade Sano in a package for Blake Snell and put Kiriloff at 1B.  JUST DO IT !!

I'm very intrigued with David Dahl.  Still young, controllable, affordable and potentially VERY GOOD.  What does that mean for Larnach and Rooker ?  Possible trade bait ??  

TRADE for Ketel Marte.   He can play SS, CF and 2B.  He's a very good hitter and should be leadoff or #2 in the lineup.  Give up whatever you have to.  Here's why:

His versatility gives the Twins protection at CF and SS if Buxton or Polanco are hurt.

His best defensive position is 2B, making Arraez our super-utility guy.  I'd part with some good prospect capital to add this guy.  

 

[Major League Ready]

2 keys ….

 

1) Team spending is going to be a product of how each team assess the impact of Covid on revenue. Dateline did an hour special on Covid Vaccines a couple days ago. Dateline interviewed CEOs of the three companies closest to distributing vaccines. The FDA rules on Pfizer's drug in 2 weeks. IF APPROVED, distribution to font-line health workers and senior care facilities would start immediately. Mass distribution to the general public won’t happen until mid-year. Administering all of those shots will take months so the full impact won’t be felt until the end of the year.

 

2) Company budgets are a product of projected revenue. Based on Dateline’s report, I would guess the Best case scenario is gate receipts are down by 1/2 which is roughly $60M. Businesses NEVER spend the same when facing revenue reductions of this scale. Neither does any responsible adult when managing personal finances. We can dream but this dream is not coming true.