Three Strikes: Why Eddie Rosario Should Leave

[John Bonnes]

The Twins essentially cut ties last night with left fielder Eddie Rosario, perhaps the most polarizing Twins’ player since he joined the team six years ago. Here are three reasons it was a good move.Eddie Is Who He Is

Which is a solid contributor who is as likely to decline as he is improve. He’s never really learned any but the most bare bones strike zone discipline, limiting him to a career on-base percentage of just .310. He’s been effective because of his power, but power isn’t something the Twins have lacked in this lineup. His speed in the outfield has slowed so his defense is declining, and likely to decline further.

 

He’s an above average regular, but he’s never been an All-Star level outfielder and he isn’t especially likely to be. The Twins may be getting rid of him a year too early. But as the saying goes, that’s better than a year too late.

 

He Drives Us Crazy

Having a free-swinger in the middle of the Twins order often proved counter-productive. A young pitcher would grind against disciplined hitters like Max Kepler, Josh Donaldson and Nelson Cruz – and up would walk Eddie Rosario like a blast of fresh air. Rosario could make them pay on occasion – his RBI totals demonstrate that – but that .310 OBP would often provide them the lifeline they needed.

 

Plus, of course, his bizarre choices on the bases and in the field could be maddening. Like running through an

. Or

because he thought it was out of play. (Yes, those links are to the same video from the same game. It also includes some good plays. Such is the Eddie Rosario Experience.)

 

He’s Too Expensive

In this pandemicized MLB market, it looks like free agents – and especially hitters – are going to be available at bargain prices. And while the Twins are well-situated with a low committed payroll, they’ll obviously have financial limitation since we still don’t know if fans will be allowed in Target Field.

 

The Twins put Rosario on waivers last night, even though the non-tender deadline was today, to give him a chance to latch on with another team that would voluntarily offer him arbitration, and thus commit to paying him around $10M. If no team claims him – and I suspect none will, since the Twins clearly tried to trade him before this deadline – it confirms that Rosario’s built-in arbitration raise just made him too expensive to keep.

 

Plus, the Twins have a number of replacements that could replace his production. Their top prospect, Alex Kirilloff, is a left-handed hitting corner outfielder and was called up for the playoffs last year. His ceiling looks potentially higher than Eddie’s, and he’s just 23 years old. Their third best prospect, Trevor Larnach, is also a left-handed hitting corner outfielder who looks like he’s close to the majors. They also have other options who could fill a portion of the role like Jake Cave, Lamonte Wade Jr. and Brent Rooker.

 

Bottom Line

Rosario is the kind of player a competitive team makes a tough decision on and lets go. He’s good, but he’s not great, and he’s not likely to get better. He’s right at the point where he’s getting expensive, there are better opportunities on the market, and he’s the organization had worked hard to develop internal replacements who deserve their shot. Eddie will likely go on to have a successful career with another team. But that team doesn’t need to be the Twins.

 

Now read Three Strikes: Why Eddie Rosario Should Stay

 

Click here to view the article

[jjswol]

Eddie is a "good news/bad news" type of player but I think the Twins will miss his RBI's even if the analytics folks don't value RBI any more. Frustrating sometimes? Absolutely, but is big in the clubhouse and will be missed.

 

[baul0010]

I'll miss Eddie - He played hard, he was fun to watch, and there was always a chance to see something magical (good or bad).  He might not do everything right but a kid couldn't have a better example of how to play the game.  He wasn't the most talented but he always gave it his all. 

[sandbun]

 

He’s an above average regular....He’s good, but he’s not great

 

I guess this is my problem with the move. We're moving on from a player not because he's bad and we need to, but because money. We're going to likely be a little bit worse without him, and all because the Twins want to cut payroll. Again. And it's not like this is a long term massive contract. It's a one year 10 mil deal. Woo.

[mikelink45]

I am constantly amazed that Eddie gets the attention he does, but Kepler does not get the criticism he deserves.

[nicksaviking]

 

I guess this is my problem with the move. We're moving on from a player not because he's bad and we need to, but because money. We're going to likely be a little bit worse without him, and all because the Twins want to cut payroll. Again. And it's not like this is a long term massive contract. It's a one year 10 mil deal. Woo.

 

I really like Eddie and I'd like him to stay if the situation was right, but I don't think the team will be worse without him. If Kirilloff and Larnich are the main options to replace him, what ever losses they will feel with the bat, they'll probably make up for in OBP and defense. And, there's also a good chance they wouldn't show any loss with the bat either. In today's game a .800 OPS for a corner outfielder isn't exactly hard to find.

 

This reminds me of Jacque Jones leaving. Most people loved Jacque, he was a core member of the team's resurgence. He had a really decent but streaky bat, but his OBP and defense were iffy and the Twins didn't bother trying to re-sign him as they had Cuddyer and Kubel in need of outfield spots.

 

And while the team may drop payroll (I suspect most every team will) it's not about saving money, it's about reallocating money. Saving 9M on your LF when his replacement likely isn't to be much if any of a downgrade means you can allocate 9M more into pitching or middle infield upgrades.

[adorduan]

 

 

 

And while the team may drop payroll (I suspect most every team will) it's not about saving money, it's about reallocating money. Saving 9M on your LF when his replacement likely isn't to be much if any of a downgrade means you can allocate 9M more into pitching or middle infield upgrades.

 

There is no guarantee they will spend that 9M.....

 

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 

And while the team may drop payroll (I suspect most every team will) it's not about saving money, it's about reallocating money. Saving 9M on your LF when his replacement likely isn't to be much if any of a downgrade means you can allocate 9M more into pitching or middle infield upgrades.

 

There is no guarantee they will spend that 9M.....

 

 

I guess I wasn't looking for a guarantee.

 

It would be nice if they found a good free agent, but if the team is going to scale back, this is a good year to do it, the free agent market is ugly. 

[Danchat]

While trying to project out what the Twins' rookie OFs might be able to do in their first season, I did a bit of research on how some of our past rookie debuts have gone.

 

2020 Ryan Jeffers - .273/.355/.436 (.791 OPS) 0.3 WAR
2018 Jake Cave - .265/.313/.473 (.786 OPS) 1.7 WAR
2018 Mitch Garver - .268/.335/.414 (.749 OPS) 0.9 WAR
2016 Byron Buxton - .225/.284/.420 (.714 OPS) 1.7 WAR
2016 Max Kepler - .235/.309/.424 (.734 OPS) 2.4 WAR
2016 Jorge Polanco - .282/.332/.424 (.757 OPS) 0.4 WAR
2015 Miguel Sano - .269/.385/.530 (.916 OPS) 2.4 WAR
2015 Eddie Rosario - .267/.289/.459 (.748 OPS) 2.2 WAR
2014 Danny Santana - .319/.353/.472 (.824 OPS) 3.8 WAR

 

Those are some good numbers. Here's hoping we can tack on a couple more successful years at the top of this list.

[terrydactyls]

Here is my worthless take on the situation. With a vaccine about ready to begin distributing, now is the time for the Twins to go all in. Fans could well be brought back into stadiums by July 1st and the second half of the season would be all sell outs. Offer Trevor Bauer four years for $120M with an option for a fifth year. Offer Marcel Ozuna three years at $48M to be DH. Sign one good reliever and fill in remaining holes internally. Payroll goes up a little but the next several years would look very promising.

[GNess]

Eddie has been an asset to the Twins and a key figure for better or worse in terms of team culture. But his asset value diminishes as his salary increases unless the Twins can project some improvement in his numbers. 

 

The Twins will likely (hopefully) get greater value out of the pool of in-house replacements because they can approximate Eddie's numbers in the short term at a much lower salary. Mid-long term the Twins are counting on at least one of the youngsters to surpass Eddie's level of production.

 

Having said that, I have enjoyed rooting for him and hope his career continues on a good path.

[Dman]

Well reasoned IMO.  I think most of us could see the writing on the wall with two of our best prospects pretty much ready to contribute.  Seems hard to believe they couldn't get something in trade for him. Teams down on their luck rebuilding could use a guy like Eddie.

 

I certainly enjoyed Eddie's passion for the game and his fearless attitude at the plate I will miss him.

[Major League Ready]

 

I am constantly amazed that Eddie gets the attention he does, but Kepler does not get the criticism he deserves.

 

The criticism of Rosario is recent. Rosario was truly great for a half season but he has been mediocre at best since the 1st half of 2018. His horrid plate discipline, base running errors, and defensive mistakes make him a target for criticism. Kepler has none of these issues and his offensive numbers are better than Rosario's over the past couple of seasons. Kepler is a more complete player and his WAR is more than double Rosario's WAR over the past two seasons. This is why Kepler is not criticized IMO.  

[JW24]

Eddie is the type of guy who might raise a team's floor while simultaneously lowering their ceiling. He is a good player, but the Twins have plenty of good players. A roster of good players makes the playoffs only to get swept; competing without truly contending.

 

Moving on from Eddie is necessary to see if we can get better production both from LF, but also throughout the entire organization.

 

The offseason headlines on Twins Daily often read something like "Should the Twins Sign X" or "Should the Twins Trade for X" when the question is really, "What is the downstream impact of signing/not signing X?" In the case of Eddie, the downstream is an opportunity for one of the prospects to step up and contribute and for Eddie's salary to be spent in greater areas of need.

 

I enjoyed the Eddie Era in Minnesota, wish him good luck where he ends up, and am looking forward to seeing if the Twins are able to improve their entire roster as a result of this decision.

[Major League Ready]

 

Not sure I agree. Kepler's WAR comes from his defensive value, not his bat. He hit well in 2019. He hit poorly in 2017, 2018 and 2020. That suggests 2019 is the outlier year, not an indication of things to come. If that's true, Kepler is a guy from whom you can expect .225 -.250/ .320/ .430 (750 OPS) with 20-25 plus HRs. Below average hitting corner OF with good power. That's what Kepler has been every year except 2019. 

 

Kepler and Rosario played 2 different roles on the team. Rosario was the cleanup hitter and pretty good at that. Kepler cannot fill that role but he provides much better OF defense, can play CF when we need to Buxton on IL, and could hit 6th or 7th on a championship contending team. Nothing wrong with that and he's appropriately priced for what he can do. What Kepler can't do is replace Rosario in the middle of the lineup.

 

And there's the rub. Who hits 4th on this team in 2021? If Cruz is re-signed, he could hit 4th and maybe Polanco 3rd? If Cruz isn't re-signed who hits in the #3 and #4 hole? Kepler isn't good enough, Polanco and Sano are real maybes better suited to leadoff and hit 6/7 respectively, and trusting one or two guys fresh up from the minors is a very risky play. Donaldson and Cruz hitting 3 and 4 with Polanco and Arraez in the 1 and 2 holes? Is Buxton ready to move up with his sub .300 OBP? Lineup construction is going to be a real challenge for next year.    

 

I am focused on production after the trade deadline in 2018 because I believe what occurred at that point is particularly relevant to Rosario's value. The league adjusted and Eddie has demonstrated he has no answer. Since that period of time. Kepler has been better offensively and considerably more valuable defensively.

 

Since 7/31/2018

 

Rosario / Kepler
HRs – 45 / 45
wRC+ 99 / 114
OPS - 774/889
wOBA 321/342
SLG – 477/479
RBI – 164/130

 

Kepler is better in every category with the exception of RBIs.

Kepler takes better ABs.
Kepler does not throw to the wrong base.
Kepler does not make stupid base running mistakes.

 

Therefore, people are not frustrated with Kepler like many of us are with Rosario. I thought it went without saying that Kepler's considerably higher WAR was a product of defensive contribution. That was meant as just one factor why some of us are more satisfied with Kepler vs Rosario.

[mikelink45]

 

The criticism of Rosario is recent. Rosario was truly great for a half season but he has been mediocre at best since the 1st half of 2018. His horrid plate discipline, base running errors, and defensive mistakes make him a target for criticism. Kepler has none of these issues and his offensive numbers are better than Rosario's over the past couple of seasons. Kepler is a more complete player and his WAR is more than double Rosario's WAR over the past two seasons. This is why Kepler is not criticized IMO.  

If only I had the time to challenge all those assertions.  Let's just say I am not among the Kepler lovers.

 

[ashbury]

Eddie is the type of guy who might raise a team's floor while simultaneously lowering their ceiling.

I've long felt there were players who could be described in a similar way, though I've never taken the time to try to quantify it. Some players do things that bring wins your way. However, these players may also do things that bring losses your way, and thus on average they are, well, let's say average. Basically, if you're a cellar-dwelling team, such a player may be interesting to you, because a few of them may be a quick route out of the 100-loss wilderness and let you reach .500. However, to go above .500, you eventually need to move on, to the scarcer player who brings the positives but not the negatives. I guess the same holds true for reaching the post-season versus excelling in it.

 

Win Probability Added is a rough cut at this form of analysis, though not for fielding - it offers a positive and a negative component to plate appearances, which when combined gives the aggregate rating. WAR and its relatives, by contrast, just gives an aggregate.

 

My thinking along these lines has been more about starting pitchers - some guys bring Cy Young stuff to some of their starts, and then in other games they can't find the plate, and though they tantalize you with potential they never do much better than .500 ball. But there's no reason a position player can't fit that profile too - Eddie will occasionally save your bacon with a laser throw to home plate that nails a Bosox runner carrying the tying run, but at too many other times will endure wasted at-bats where he eats out of the pitcher's hand.

 

I've loved rooting for Eddie because he seems like a genuine good guy. But if the team moves on from him, I think I understand their thinking.

 

[DocBauer]

Once again, John, like in the pro-Rosario article, every point you made is spot on.

 

I am and have been a big fan of Eddie and have thoroughly enjoyed his production, great plays and moments, as well as his enthusiasm for the game. But the world in general, MLB in particular relevance for this conversation, is in a strange place right now. And the Twins have other needs to allocate $ towards.

 

In a perfect situation and anything close to "normal", as I stated in the other OP, Rosario would be back for another year and the kids would be allowed to develop and force themselves in to the lineup. But this is the easiest "cut" to add to other areas.

 

While I don't expect Kirilloff, or anyone, to just step in their 1st year and automatically replace Rosario's production, we can't love and embrace and eagerly await such young talent and their debut, and then chastise the Twins for allowing that to now happen.

 

I repeat myself yet again that the Twins simply can't allow the lineup to lose BOTH Rosario AND Cruz at the same time. So via unexpected trade or more probably FA, a dependable bat will have to be signed or re-signed. Hence my article in the Forums category concerning Cruz.

 

To naysayers, I absolutely, positively believe Rosario being cut loose is not, in of itself, some attempt to save $. It's the most logical step, and easiest replacement, to re-allocate $ to other team needs, even if payroll itself is lowered due to the current financial situation. And it's not just the Twins.

[mnfireman]

Wouldn't it suck if Rosario went to Boston and killed it for 6-8 years.....

[FritzDahmus]

This is a bad move.

 

But it is typical of teams with smaller payrolls. They get rid of a good player with experience that can give the team a veteran at-bat in a playoff game.

 

Then construct the reasoning for letting him go -- based on what he does on the field -- after calling him a good player....so they feel the need to point out some antics [name a player you couldn't do that to].

 

In Eddie's case, he always batted in the middle of the lineup and always was a team leader in RBIs. He was a left fielder....not a shortstop. 

 

Now, if the twins go out and replace him with a Michael Brantley or someone of that caliber.......fine! But we are looking at Cave, Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach, etc....

 

A money dump.........again. I hope he ends up with the Yankees and beats the crap out of us.

[mnfireman]

No room in NY for Rosario....

[Shaitan]

I have nothing to say that hasn't been said in 14,000 threads before this one.

 

But I'm not a fan of the headline. Saying he should leave makes it sound like it's his decision.

[Shaitan]

 

While trying to project out what the Twins' rookie OFs might be able to do in their first season, I did a bit of research on how some of our past rookie debuts have gone.

 

2020 Ryan Jeffers - .273/.355/.436 (.791 OPS) 0.3 WAR
2018 Jake Cave - .265/.313/.473 (.786 OPS) 1.7 WAR
2018 Mitch Garver - .268/.335/.414 (.749 OPS) 0.9 WAR
2016 Byron Buxton - .225/.284/.420 (.714 OPS) 1.7 WAR
2016 Max Kepler - .235/.309/.424 (.734 OPS) 2.4 WAR
2016 Jorge Polanco - .282/.332/.424 (.757 OPS) 0.4 WAR
2015 Miguel Sano - .269/.385/.530 (.916 OPS) 2.4 WAR
2015 Eddie Rosario - .267/.289/.459 (.748 OPS) 2.2 WAR
2014 Danny Santana - .319/.353/.472 (.824 OPS) 3.8 WAR

 

Those are some good numbers. Here's hoping we can tack on a couple more successful years at the top of this list.

 

Seeing that Santana leads the pack almost makes me hope our rookies don't perform super well next year (as a sign of career longevity).

 

Yeah, I know DanSan kinda resurfaced in 2019 but I'm still not counting it.

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Agree with this and the earlier poster. As I mentioned in the Rosario thread, this is a defensible move if a least 7-8M of the money is allocated to some combination of starting pitching, a better defensive SS (with Polanco moving to 2B and Arraez to super utility), or a high end closer. NOT to Cruz, not to the rest of the BP. We already have those dollars from losing May and Romo. IF we don't do any of those things, then this is all about money and payroll. Undersatnable from a business standpoint, but very disappointing nonetheless. 

 

Or it could be about finding room for the numerous corner outfield prospects, all of whom have a higher ceiling than Rosario.

[Major League Ready]

 

I repeat myself yet again that the Twins simply can't allow the lineup to lose BOTH Rosario AND Cruz at the same time. So via unexpected trade or more probably FA, a dependable bat will have to be signed or re-signed. Hence my article in the Forums category concerning Cruz.
 

 

I hear ya Doc but let's at least look at this from a couple of angles. 2020 is not a great basis of comparison. Let's use 2019 when the team was great offensively as our basis of comparison. Since then we added Donaldson and Rosario was pretty average with a wRC+ of 103 in 2019. Do I want to put a rookie in the 4 hole? No! However, I think one of the Rookies can do that or better than 103 and I think we can find a suitable hitter for that role. Perhaps even Cruz because we have several guys that could hit 1-3. Perhaps we add someone like Schwarber who had a really bad 2020 but so did some other really good players. He had an OPS of 871 in 2019 and 823 in 2018. He might even make more sense than Cruz if he is the bridge to Larnach/Kirilloff.

[Major League Ready]

 

Perhaps, but they also have a lower floor.  More importantly, they are much less likely to provide a middle of the order offensive presence in 2021, and they also entail substantially more risk. I would be much more in favor of moving out Rosario to make room for Kirilloff or Larnach if I didn't feel like we were so close to seriously contending. This is the kind of move that a middle of the pack or lower team takes because they're looking to the long-term future. I think the Twins have a strong short-term future, so I'd like to see more focus on 2021/2022. That's why I think it's important to me that the team redeploy the money to bolster a weak spot, like starting pitching or middle infield defense, for the next year or two.

 

By the way, I would not be in favor of moving out Rosario to make a place for Rooker. He looked like he could hit in his brief tryout last year but is outfield defense was pretty atrocious. He actually might be a downgrade from Rosario, hard as that is to say. I think Rooker is better as a bench bat,or a replacement for Sano/DH. I would limit his exposure in the outfield. 

 

IMO this is an over simplification. We know $$ are going to be a little tighter this year. You are not accounting for the dollar difference between Rooker and Rosario being redeployed. Rooker and $10M toward Odorizzi >>> than Rosario or Rooker + Tijuan Walker + Clippard (type) >>>> Rosario.

[Physics Guy]

 

Kepler and Rosario played 2 different roles on the team. Rosario was the cleanup hitter and pretty good at that. Kepler cannot fill that role but he provides much better OF defense, can play CF when we need to Buxton on IL, and could hit 6th or 7th on a championship contending team. Nothing wrong with that and he's appropriately priced for what he can do. What Kepler can't do is replace Rosario in the middle of the lineup.

 

And there's the rub. Who hits 4th on this team in 2021? If Cruz is re-signed, he could hit 4th and maybe Polanco 3rd? If Cruz isn't re-signed who hits in the #3 and #4 hole? Kepler isn't good enough, Polanco and Sano are real maybes better suited to leadoff and hit 6/7 respectively, and trusting one or two guys fresh up from the minors is a very risky play. Donaldson and Cruz hitting 3 and 4 with Polanco and Arraez in the 1 and 2 holes? Is Buxton ready to move up with his sub .300 OBP? Lineup construction is going to be a real challenge for next year.    

I think you grossly overestimate Rosario's value as a cleanup hitter.  His production was much more a result of opportunity than of some innate ability to drive in runs.  This is from Gleeman's article on the Athletic:

 

"Rosario drove in 15.5 percent of runners on base, compared to the AL average of 14.4 percent, and that doesn’t fully account for how many outs he ate up or how infrequently he drew a walk to become an RBI chance for the next hitter. Justin Morneau, the team’s “RBI man” before Rosario, drove in 17.8 percent for the Twins. Joe Mauer, long criticized for low RBI totals, drove in 17.0 percent."

 

Kepler drove in 90 in 2019 while batting mostly leadoff.  I see no reason why Max can't hit #4 if they want to separate Cruz and Sano.  Even better yet, let Sano bat #4 and Kepler #5.  Arraez or Polanco can handle the leadoff spot. 
 

[Physics Guy]

Also from Gleeman's article:

 

"For instance, Rosario led the 2019 Twins with 109 RBI, one more than Nelson Cruz. That season, Rosario came to the plate with a team-high 412 runners on base, compared to 332 for Cruz. Rosario received 80 more RBI opportunities, yet drove in just one more run. He also received the Twins’ most RBI chances in 2018 and 2020, and the second-most in 2017."

 

https://theathletic.com/2234367/2020/12/02/eddie-rosario-twins-non-tender/

(I strongly recommend signing up for the Athletic if you don't already.)

[DocBauer]

Not sure if TD or my tablet or internet is having issues. So I'm taking a shortened "quote" response here.

 

I believe Kirilloff is going to be a STUD!. He's untouchable to me. But I simply can't/won't believe he will equate the OPS of Rosario immediately. I wish he would! Perhaps he and Rooker will combined. There is room for both. And despite my love and belief in Keple.r, I could absolutely see AK gone in the next season or two, OR, some combination of all filling OF corners, 1B and DH maybe with Sano and even Donaldson. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

 

For 2021...we need that proven bat. I've argued Rosario in these dual threads for what he has done. I'd rather have a short term Cruz for what he has done and because I think he has one more really good year left in him. Probably one more mediocre/average/solid year after that based on age/history. I'm OK with that.

 

I debated with my dad tonight about how $ should be spent. Rosario back as an OF/DH would be nice. But him instead of Cruz for a year? Cruz all day long for 1yr. Cruz vs Brantley for 2yrs? Man, it gets tough!

 

Rosario could fill a

 

Same money, how do you not take the younger Brantley who can still play in the field vs a DH only. Except, we are talking about an elite bat!

 

 

[IAMNFan]

Reasons Rosario is gone:  Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach.  All have higher ceilings, take better at bats and are ready.  Throw in what we have done to our economy and it is a no-brainer.  Throw in that FSN is available to 1/2 the viewers as it was 2 years ago and it is a slam dunk.

Rosario will sign with a poor team that doesn't have major league talent ready for about 3 million.