Which of These Free-Agent Contracts Makes Most Sense for the Twins?

[Tom Froemming]

In this video, I take a look at which of the free-agent contracts predicted by the staff of MLB Trade Rumors would make the most sense for the Twins.Predicting what’s going to happen on the MLB free-agent market is always difficult, but there seems to be additional uncertainty this year. There are a few different flavors of forecasts out there for this offseason, but let’s focus on those from MLB Trade Rumors.

 

Here are my picks for the top-10 Twins targets based on their projections. The only other caveat is I decided not to include anyone on the 2020 Twins for consideration on this list.

 

The video below is 23 minutes, but the entire list is unveiled in the first six minutes. The rest is additional analysis and discussion.

 

 

Again, it's incredibly hard to predict what's going to happen in free agency. These figures from MLB Trade Rumors are most definitely open to debate, however, I still found this exercise fun.

 

Let me know what you think of this list and who your favorite targets are in the context of these projections.

 

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[tony&rodney]

Cool video and you do a good job of stating your cases. My number one choice is Liam Hendriks. 3/$30 million seems a little low but I'll pay it. Bauer is a strong temptation because of how tough he pitches and a team will get innings from him every time out. A few pieces need to move to fit Bauer. If the payroll sits at $145 million, Bauer becomes a match. Walker is a good choice at the named contract. Some interesting ideas and thoughts for discussion.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Cool video and you do a good job of stating your cases. My number one choice is Liam Hendriks. 3/$30 million seems a little low but I'll pay it. Bauer is a strong temptation because of how tough he pitches and a team will get innings from him every time out. A few pieces need to move to fit Bauer. If the payroll sits at $145 million, Bauer becomes a match. Walker is a good choice at the named contract. Some interesting ideas and thoughts for discussion.

Thanks for checking it out. I wrote something that should be published soon about how, despite being used more than ever, bullpens arm appear to be being valued less than ever on the free agent market. That deal for Hendriks seems reasonable to me too, but that was what both MLB TR and FanGraphs predicted he'd get. We'll see.

[Major League Ready]

 

Thanks for checking it out. I wrote something that should be published soon about how, despite being used more than ever, bullpens arm appear to be being valued less than ever on the free agent market. That deal for Hendriks seems reasonable to me too, but that was what both MLB TR and FanGraphs predicted he'd get. We'll see.

 

The failure rate / production of top free agent RPs has been extremely high and the market is going to adjust.

[Lonestar]

I would love signing Profar given Donaldson’s calves. I think you’re right that Profar will go for a starting job elsewhere.

I like the idea of someone like Rosenthal -- namely Trevor May. And Falvine do(es) spend money on relief pitchers. See Addison Reed. Yates makes sense in a vacuum but with limited funds available, I would rather spend $2M more on a surer thing (or two). Yates makes sense for the Dodgers.

I love Taijuan Walker. He demotes Dobnak to fifth starter (at best), he might surpass Pineda, and he would be here 1 year after Pineda leaves.

[railmarshalljon]

Yeah I'm convinced.

[DocBauer]

Really good work, Tom! And each arguement presented has merit to be sure. Of course, MLBTraderumor numbers are speculation at this point. And the obvious sticking point with any FA discussed is simply not knowing how any team's payroll is going to shape up much less the Twins. I'm with you that my hope is the FO looks at their contention status and decides to keep things in that $135-140M window and see no raise in payroll as a form of cut. Opens up a lot of possibilities. Be that as it may, just a few thoughts....

 

I'm not going to address Bauer for reasons that should be obvious. I'm of the school that status quo isn't always a good thing, but sometimes keeping what you know/have can be the best solution. And while he is not part of your list, I think a healthy Odorizzi may be the Twins best option whether it be 1yr or longer. I do think Walker and Richards, who you briefly mentioned, could be very smart and low cost options. Paxton, even at the bargain price of $10M kind of scares me. Which makes no sense when I say I find myself very intrigued by the older Kluber on an incentive laden deal. Something in my gut just tells me he is one of those guys who gets right and even at 80% of his old self he would be a very good middle rotation piece for around $10M. Call me crazy.

 

Totally agree on Brantley as a Cruz replacement as he is good, steady, and can still play the OF for roster flexibility.

 

We needed a solid BP arm even before May signed with the Mets. Just not sure I see the Twins moving on Hendricks, though I would love it. I think Yates or Rosenthal PLUS another decent arm for the same $10M might make more sense. The Twins seem to knkw how to build a bullpen.

 

I have never considered LeMahieu as an option as I've always felt be would go back to N.Y. if they want him. But he might be my #1 from your list. He is the PERFECT 10th man due to his offense and defense and the fact he's already been used that way and in the lineup on a daily basis. But again, I just don't think he's going to be available.

 

There is a lot of thought about Profar or Hernandez, who you didn't mention, as 10th man options. I like Profar and think his OF ability only adds to his value. Same with Hernandez. Offensively, neither is great, though they are solid and have had their moments. I would prefer the younger Profar if he could be convinced being a 10th man is not a bad thing. It still means you play every day, just at different spots. Can he be convinced at $6-7M for a contending club and playing dailyis better that a set position for a losing team?

 

Not mentioned as he wouldn't be in anyone's top 10, Tommy LaStella could be a less expensive and really good 10th man option. Our 10th man doesn't have to play OF with the depth there.

 

Despite your deserved fascination with Semien, I feel this team is good enough, well rounded enough, that I'd rather balance payroll for 5 additions rather than 2 or 3. I'm not saying buying in bulk is the answer, lol. But a quality SP, 2 BP arms I like, a 10th man who can bring offense and versatility, and a bat to potentially replace Cruz/Rosario seems to make more sense to me for $40M than 2 guys who might grab the majority of that extra $.

[tony&rodney]

Mesmerized. We watched Kluber pitch so many games and are entranced, thinking he could be just what the Twins need at less than he was with Cleveland; a signing worth the gamble. I like Kluber. Trevor Rosenthal and Kirby Yates seem like excellent fits but I just love the power/control feature that Hendriks brings to the mound. I'm all in there. A number of options are appealing among swing utility players, but I find myself wondering if a young player like Royce Lewis might thrive playing four or five days per week. One of the struggles of mlb is the length of the season for rookies and having a chance to be sifted into a semi-regular position might be beneficial, especially if there aren't the demands or pressures that accompany the role of a starter.