Twins Extension Candidate: Jose Berrios

[Cody Christie]

Extensions can be tough especially for players that have grown and developed in one organization. There is a connection between the player, the team, and the fans. When the Twins drafted Jose Berrios, there was an emotional moment as he was surrounded by many of the people that helped to make his dream a reality. Now he is heading for a life-changing contract that may or may not be coming from the Minnesota Twins.Jose Berrios

2020 Stats (12 games): 4.00 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 109 ERA+, 4.06 FIP, 0.7 WAR

 

Current Contract (2nd-Year Arbitration Eligible, Free Agent: 2023)

In his second year of arbitration, Berrios is slated to make somewhere between $5-7.5 million. Last season, the Twins and Berrios couldn’t agree on a salary, so they had to go through an arbitration hearing. He had requested a salary of $4.4 million and the Twins offered $4.025 million. These hearings can be tough for the player and the team as they argue over a player’s value compared to similar players in previous seasons. It will be interesting to see if the two sides go through the hearing process again this year.

 

Pros of Extending Now

Minnesota has struggled to develop starting pitching in the organization for many years and Berrios is one of the lone players to prove he can be an effective starter at the big-league level. He’s already been a two-time All Star and the closer he gets to free agency, the more expensive an extension would cost. An extension this winter would allow Berrios and his family to be set-up for life and it would give the Twins some certainty with their costs moving forward. It isn’t going to be cheap to sign him, so sooner rather than later might be the key.

 

Cons of Extending Now

The Twins have previously approached Berrios with potential contract extensions, but he seems satisfied to go year-to-year through the arbitration process and betting on himself improving each season. “Every player wants to sign a multiyear deal, but we know it’s a business,” Berrios told the Star Tribune in spring training 2019. “I have to manage my business, too. … We’re waiting for the best for both sides. If it doesn’t happen this year, maybe next year.” Another year has passed, and an extension has yet to be signed.

 

Possible Extension

It’s likely for Berrios to make around $7 million in 2021 and then see a raise to around $10 million for 2022 before heading to free agency. An extension is going to be a little trickier since he has already entered the arbitration process and he is closer to free agency. Berrios isn’t going to take a hometown discount to stay with the Twins so that likely means he will be looking at a contract north of $100 million. According to Baseball Reference, one of the most similar pitchers to him through age 26 is Trevor Bauer and he is headed for a massive payday this winter.

 

How much would you give Berrios in an extension? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[rdehring]

Don't even want to speculate what it would cost or what I think it will cost. My concern is that they get it done. 

[sdangus]

How about 6 years for $80 million. I see salaries of 8, 10, 12, 14,16,18 and an $2 M buyout on a $20 salary for the 7th year.

[South Dakota Tom]

 

How about 6 years for $80 million. I see salaries of 8, 10, 12, 14,16,18 and an $2 M buyout on a $20 salary for the 7th year.

I don't think that comes close.  He will be well north of $20M/yr if he makes it to FA. 6/$110?  That's basically $20M for the next two and $90M for 4 years of FA, which could be structured to coincide with long-term payroll forecasts.  It would have to be enough to get him to avoid gambling on staying healthy, as he's earned enough to live comfortably already.

 

Seeing the Snell dangling in TB, I wonder if you don't float the above offer as option 1, and then see what might be out there in a trade (I know, blasphemy!); teams right now would pay a fortune for a top-of-the-line young pitcher who costs $15M for the next two years.  1 #3 young starter, 1 strong reliever, 1 top 50 prospect (preferably another SP)?  His value isn't going up between now and winter 2022 as years of control go away.  I hate to think about it, but this is how great teams are built sometimes when they don't have LA/NY money.

[Trov]

Extending pitchers are always a risk.  When they are young and good, sometimes they do not age well at all, and some will have major injuries that they never really come back from.  Some age very well and learn to pitch with decreased velocity.  I am never a fan of super long term contracts for pitchers.  

 

If I were to sign him today, I would only go 4 to 5 years, basically a 2 to 3 year FA deal, at an average of $15M a year, maybe up to $17M.  He gets paid extra than what he would for first two years, but less than what he could for last few years.  It is still a huge investment into a player, that could miss seasons and never be the same.  

 

For a team that is middle of the road payroll, they can not have large amounts of dead money on the books.  If Jose is willing to go year to year, let him.  Look at Cleveland what they have been doing lately.  They keep trading away top pitchers as they near big pay days, and coming up with new pitchers.  Also, look at how many that are being traded end up with major injuries.  Bauer so far only of the recent guys that have not had one after being traded.  

 

I would agree if you cannot extend Jose to a contract you like, potentially shop him around, as long as you can get a some good pitching prospects in return I am all for it after next season.  I would not want to this off season because we do not have clear replacements in place.   

[Vanimal46]

This is the face you're negotiating with this winter. The player who wants to be great, and works very hard to make sure he's healthy enough to be a 180-200 inning pitcher. Yet, seemingly every time he has an opportunity prove his value, like game 2 of the ALDS, he gets yanked out of the game. 

Does he want to lock his baseball career long term with a team that won't let him spread his wings and fly?

[mikelink45]

How does an old fan who is on social security speculate in this land of fun money?  I keep dropping the last three zeros when I read about this contracts.  But, yes, we should extend him.  Then we should get Balazovic into the rotation and start our next good home grown starter. 

[Danchat]

 

This is the face you're negotiating with this winter. The player who wants to be great, and works very hard to make sure he's healthy enough to be a 180-200 inning pitcher. Yet, seemingly every time he has an opportunity prove his value, like game 2 of the ALDS, he gets yanked out of the game. 

Does he want to lock his baseball career long term with a team that won't let him spread his wings and fly?

That also begs the question, if they're only going to rely on him for 5 inning games in big opportunities, why pay him the big money?

 

I'd prefer to see Berrios play out the next two seasons here and let him hit free agency. He'll be a pretty good pitcher for a while, but he'll likely be overpaid heavily in the open market.

[dbminn]

 

How does an old fan who is on social security speculate in this land of fun money?  I keep dropping the last three zeros when I read about this contracts.  But, yes, we should extend him.  Then we should get Balazovic into the rotation and start our next good home grown starter. 

 

Jhoan Duran says, "Mike, hold my beer". 

 

And yes, we should extend Berrios.

[tony&rodney]

Yes, we should extend Berrios, as most state above. However, it is possible that Jose wants to play out his contract to see what is available in free agency. He has all the money he needs for life right now, he works really hard, he wants to win, and is likely to be interested in going big at some point. 

If the Twins are serious about keeping Berrios for a few more years beyond the two left until free agency, they should try 4/$56-60 million. That gives Jose some time to build huge value, make cash, and the Twins are not overburdened with a long term contract. 

For sure the Twins should be feeling out the market for their star pitcher this winter though. It can be surprising how much one player can bring in a trade with a team overly eager to win now. The Twins have a nice complement of players and any trades that can make them better next summer should be pursued.

We can go year to year with Jose. Hopefully Berrios wins a World Series for the Twins next fall.

[Seth Stohs]

I tweeted this earlier... Here is what I'd offer...What do you think?

 

How about 4 years, $54 million with one option year.
2021 (27) - $8.0 million
2022 (28) - $11.0 million
2023 (29) - $15.0 million
2024 (30)  - $18.0 million
2025 (31) - $20.0 million option with $2.0 million buyout. 

[yeahyabetcha]

No to any extension. Given how the Twins seem to be trending on handling pitchers, wouldn’t the money be better spent on more bullpen options?

[DocBauer]

I tweeted this earlier... Here is what I'd offer...What do you think?

 

How about 4 years, $54 million with one option year.

2021 (27) - $8.0 million

2022 (28) - $11.0 million

2023 (29) - $15.0 million

2024 (30)  - $18.0 million

2025 (31) - $20.0 million option with $2.0 million buyout.

 

IMO, I think you're close Seth. With the option year, he hits the market again at age 32 and potentially earns a nice deal from the Twins or someone else. The issue I see is he is an intense competitor who believes in himself and if I'm not mistaken, isn't he still represented by Boras? I believe they would balk at the option year and want 5yrs locked in. And I think $72M might be a bit light in their opinion. I'm thinking closer to $80M might get it done. They key is SPECULATION what he might get on the market for 2023-25. Of course, they'd be looking at $20M+ I'd think.

 

They might be looking at 5yrs and $90M, which would give me pause. At $80M for 5yrs I'd jump. Why would they take $80m-ish? Because it's guaranteed money with covid/post-covid concerns, a potential drop in the market over the next couple of seasons, and the unknown of the next CBA.

 

I still believe we haven't seen the best of Berrios yet, consistently over a full season. I think we might with growth and a change in his training routine, which we MIGHT have seen if 2020 had been a full season.

 

In short, I'm in for 5yrs and $80M. I'm not sure future "risk" would make me go $90M. But I'd really like to see this done. Risk/reward tells me he's worth it.

 

[IndianaTwin]

 

I tweeted this earlier... Here is what I'd offer...What do you think?

 

How about 4 years, $54 million with one option year.
2021 (27) - $8.0 million
2022 (28) - $11.0 million
2023 (29) - $15.0 million
2024 (30)  - $18.0 million
2025 (31) - $20.0 million option with $2.0 million buyout. 

 

I like what you’ve got. It’s not much of a difference, but with the desire to have a smidge more wiggle room in future years, I might make it a bit flatter on the four years — something like $9M, $12M, $14M, $17M on the four years.

 

I’d like to add that fifth year with the terms you have, but I’d be reluctant to include that if I’m Berrios. If he does well enough to have the Twins pick it up, he’s probably allowing himself to be underpaid at $20M in 2025, particularly when you consider that the current QO is already $18.9M. If we had a similar CBA, for example, I’m guessing the QO number would be well past that by 2025. And if the Twins pick it up, he has to go to free agency as a 31-year-old rather than a 30-year-old, which would cost him down the road. Depends on how much he wants to bank on himself, but that seems like a big potential downside for him for only an extra guaranteed $2M. If I’m him, I insist on a bigger payout (maybe $22M or more) or a bigger buyout.