Offseason Live Replay: Twins Offseason Blueprints

[Nick Nelson]

Stay the course? Make a free agent splash? Pull off a blockbuster trade? For a talent-laden Twins team in the heart of its championship window, all options are on the table.

 

Thursday night on Offseason Live, we laid out three different paths the front office could plausibly follow this offseason, and what the results might look like in 2021.I was joined via live-stream by John Bonnes and Seth Stohs on Thursday night at 8:00 PM as we each talked through our respective theoretical blueprints for a successful Twins offseason. (Only to have them ruthlessly dissected by the other panelists.) Along the way, we gained some insight as to what real possibilities lie before of the Twins front office this winter.

 

Watch the full episode replay below.

 

You can catch future live-streams by subscribing to Twins Daily's Twitter, Facebook, or YouTube page. You can also always catch our shows via audio by subscribing to our podcast.

 

How might everything come together for the Twins this offseason? Watch and find out:

 

 

In the meantime, check out previous episodes of Offseason Live and see what's upcoming:

• Ep 1:
  (Thurs, 10/8)
• Ep 2:
  (Tues, 10/13)
• Ep 3:
  (Thurs, 10/15)
• Ep 4:
  (Tues, 10/20)
• Ep 5:
  (Thurs, 10/22)
• Ep 6:
  (Tues, 10/27)
• Ep 7:
  (Thurs, 10/29)
• Ep 8:
  (Thurs, 11/5)
• Ep 9:
  (Thurs, 11/12)
• Ep 10:
  (Thurs, 11/19)

*MORE TO COME! STAY TUNED*

 

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[Doctor Gast]

I see merit in all your blueprints. I like Seth`s addition of Brad Hand, he could really help the BP & he`s a local. I love John`s bold Bauer move, besides his talent, he could play a role much like Donaldson had w/ the young hitters only w/ the young pitchers to help develop their pitches. Having an awesome rotation but IMO suffering in the other areas. I like Nick addressing the SS problem & going after Snell but IMO the Rays would want Kiriloff plus a high pitcher prospect. Although it makes a lot of sense to let Cruz walk so we can rotate players in that position (I wouldn`t bring anyone outside to DH) but we lose not only production we lose his leadership. Would Donaldson be able to fill the void? 

I see our biggest problem is injuries from Buxton, Donaldson, Polanco & Arraez. Buxton & Donaldson injuries are especially damaging because our defense become highly compromised. Since Lewis is not "ready", I say we trade for K. Marte. I`d have Marte at SS & move Polanco to 2B & Arraez principally DH & utility. Marte is a better SS, at 2B, Polanco would have less stress (physically & mentally) to blossom into a great 2B & hitter, at DH & occasion utility, Arraez could do very well. If Donaldson is hurt, Marte will do a better job taking up the slack from SS. If Buxton is hurt Marte could admirably fill in. He`d provide much needed speed

At BP I`d see if Rogers would take less, bring back Clippard & sign Brad Hand is not     a bad idea (2yrs./ $14). I`d also like to see if Hill would come back in relief & spot starting. Starting rotation, I`d sign Garret Richards, IMO after finally getting TJ surgery his injury problems are behind him. A couple of minor tweaks he could be an ace. Low risk, high upside at a bargain. I`d also pick up Chris Archer as a flyer. If later we need an upgrade, we can always trade for a pitcher before deadline. Finally our last hole LF, I`d platoon Cave & Rooker until they want to call up Kiriloff

[4twinsJA]

My blueprint might be called a youth movement. I like adding Simmons at SS, a FA pitcher like Richards around 5M, Hand at RP, resign Rogers. Then fill in with youth like: Kirilloff, Rooker, Blankenhorn, Waddell, Dobnak, Colina, or 1-2M FAs. Twins have so many players on the verge of MLB can't see investing a lot of money into FAs.

[mikelink45]

I prefer Seth - I am a prospect person too. Grossman is a step backwards. Ramirez is not much better than Larnach for DH.  Bauer is not someone I could rely on.  Snell for Kiriloff would be a good trade, but I do not believe the Rays would do it.  

[DocBauer]

Again, fun, smart and well thought out. Great work guys! Echoing the previous sentiment that there is merit with each plan.

 

Going to offer a little feedback in reverse order for reasons that will probably be apparent.

 

3] Nick: Love the Snell trade but believe the Rays have a window right now and won't trade Snell for a year. He's affordable, even for them, for another season. BUT, if they are willing, I don't believe Kirilloff get's it done. I'm thinking Larnach instead, with Enlow or Canterino and a decent lower level prospect with some upside. And I'd make that move. I love Larnach and who knows, he may end up better than AK. But there is just enough difference in he and Kirilloff, IMO, that a 3 for 1 has Larnach and not AK.

 

I like the idea of Simmons at SS and Polanco, or Arraez, becoming a super utility 10th man who plays daily. And really, would it matter? Opportunity and versatility abounds without having to label anyone in a given role.

 

I suspect the Rays holding on to Snell for one more year sort of dismantled your plan.

 

2] John: I fully appreciate your aggressiveness here. And I think the Twins have an "in" with Bauer from the FO, general familiarity after years in the ALC, and are a legitimate contending team. An intelligent, if opinionated and flamboyant personality, he now has an agent and is on the open market, albeit in weird off-season. My opinion based on this and a few various additional opinions, he will drop his 1yr at a time approach and sign a 2-3yr deal and then hit FA again. The Twins could afford that. And the rotation would be AMAZING. But I'm not sure I like sacrificing the remainder of the roster for this one big move.

 

I also agree the roster, in general, doesn't have a MUST addition. And I also agree in the Twins ability to build a bullpen. I never want to take a young arm out of the rotation too early, but Colina and Chalmers are a couple of arms that could be ready soon if moved to the pen to join what is on hand.

 

I like the Santana addition as a DH, who could still play a little 1B here and there. He had a lousy 2020, but was still good in 2019 and could easily be a bounce back candidate. He's no Nellie, but it's a smart addition.

 

IMO, Bauer will end up with a higher bidder, though I think the Twins have a legitimate shot in your scenario. I do think the entire roster suffers, potentially, from just trusting the team to build a pen and fill in where they can.

 

1] Seth: I believe your approach makes the most sense overall. I am OK trading prospects to improve the team. But after no milb season, even with every team having taxi squads to work with at least some young talent, and an EST, how do fully evaluate young talent at this point as the Twins or any team?

 

Oddorizi may or may not be the guy we saw take a step forward in 2019. But he's still young enough that I'm betting on him. With Storman and Glausman gone already, and Tanaka almost certainly going back to the Yankees if they want him, he is the best option to bring back. He has stated he wants to come back and the Twins have done nothing to treat him wrong. I'm willing to bet he, healthy, is closer to the 2019 version than not. I just think this is a perfect fit for player and team.

 

I love Profar, or La Stella, as a 10th man option. BUT, I'm wondering if Cabrera on a 1yr isn't smarter for less money. The OF should be OK. Couldn't we use savings there for the pen?

 

Speaking of the pen...I love Hand for $7M. But what about bringing back May and signing Yates on a bounce back for $3-4M and maybe even bringing back Clippard for $2-3M. The savings for no Hand and no Profar could deepen the pen.

 

*Seems everyone would love Cruz back IF the payroll bumps to $130M or POSSIBLY stays the same. (No additional payroll is still a sort of "cut" if ownership is wanting to be aggressive with the window open).

 

**everyone Seems to agree bringing back May if there is a couple $M available. I agree. Not sure if there is additional upside available. His arm and SO numbers can't be denied. His only negative is a handful of games where he was wild and allowed a big hit before settling down. We all know the role of a RP is volatile. Even more so in a SSS. Does he really get such a big offer that we can't squeeze him in?

 

MY OPINION:

 

1] The Snell trade of a 3 for 1 is outstanding. I don't see it happening until 2022. So sign Oddo for the best deal possible. If not possible, look to Morton, Richards and Walker.

 

2] Trust the FO and staff to build a pen, but don't just trust in TBD and keep Rogers, look at keeping Clippard, May if you can, look at Hunter and Yates. There are so many possibles here that if you wait it out, there could be some real bargains late.

 

3] If $ doesn't allow Cruz to be back, then use the DH spot as a rotational spot. I don't think John's idea of Santana is bad at all. Smart idea if you believe he is what he bas usually been vs 2020. But maybe you just want to trust in Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach, much less better health for a couple of guys and a normal season.

 

The Twins have one of the best teams in all of MLB the past 2yrs with some very talented players oh so close to being ready. So I'm looking at tweaks and keeping what we have.

[tony&rodney]

Love the ideas and different iterations of the 2021 Twins team. I run through my own, especially as a means to stay away from the political morass and Covid downers.

It is a form of entertainment to look through the stat columns and team needs and wonder where deals can or cannot be made. My craziest ideas involved a series of trades, losing some of my favorite Twins. I traded Max Kepler plus a few minor leaguers for Brandon Woodruff from Milwaukee; Miguel Sano for Max Meyer from Miami; and Jose Berrios, Mitch Garver, Lewis Thorpe, Cole Sands, and Jack Cave for Luis Patino and MacKenzie Gore from San Diego. Finally, I liked the trade for Ketel Marte suggested on a previous Offseason Live.

My budget comes in just below $130 million.

SP = Kenta Maeda, Brandon Woodruff, Michael Pineda, Luis Pineda and a rookie.

The rookie can be either one of Mackenzie Gore or/and Jhoan Duran.

RP = Liam Hendriks, Rogers, Duffey, Wisler, Alcala, Stashak, Theilbar, and Colina.

C = Realmuto; 1B = Kirilloff; 2B = Arraez; 3B = Donaldson; SS = Polanco, LF = Rosario; CF = Buxton; RF = Larnach, DH = Rooker; bc = Jeffers; utility1 = Marte; utility2 = Lewis; 13th player = ?/Astudillo. Total is near $125 million.

I signed two free agents: Liam Hendriks is my first choice for 3/$42 m. and then my unlikely signing is J.T. Realmuto for 5/$125 m. I also want Tyler Clippard to return.

I, too, had fun listening to the podcast. Thank you for doing these and keeping our moods light.

 

[Major League Ready]

I like Seth’s plan. It has by far the greatest probability of being executed. Profar is a great fit. His plan also facilitates bringing on Kirilloff and/or Larnach which has great value IMO. I might be inclined to invest the Brad Hand money elsewhere. I think he is a very good RP but it’s hard to ignore the failure rate among high-end free agent RPs. Between 2017-2018 there were 21 free Agent RPs signed to contracts with an AAV of over $7.5M. Their combined WAR for the past 3 years is 7.5. The two highest in terms of Fwar were Andrew Cashner (2.5) and Zach Britton (2.4) All of the others combined produced an average of .14 Fwar. It’s really hard to look at that recent history and not believe those funds would likely be used more productively elsewhere. 

 

Nick’s plan would be great if you could pull it off. However, it is extremely hard to imagine a World Series team trading a top of the rotation starter with 3 years of team control. They would require an absolute haul. Probably a Chris Sale type haul. Moncada was a better prospect than Kirilloff and the White Sox got Michael Kopech in that deal. Our equivalent would be Balazovic or Duran and they are not even close in terms of prospect rating. Of course, the Sox got a couple other prospect in this deal as well. Luis Alexander has a FV of 40, same as Rooker. I don’t think Snell is equivalent to Sale but I would not be surprised if the Rays asking price was similar. 

John’s plan centered around getting Bauer places too much importance on one guy for my liking and I agree with Nick and Seth that he has been good more often than great. Also, any plan based on signing the only high-end starter on the market should include a plan B even if you are the Yankees or Dodgers. In the past 20 years, these pitchers have gone to teams in the top 7-8 in revenue almost exclusively. The only exception has been the Nationals and the Nationals could pay for Bauer twice with the revenue advantage they have over the Twins.