3 Potential Trades the Twins Can Make This Winter

[Nash Walker]

The Twins have more wins than any other team in the American League over the last two seasons. They have no playoff wins to show for it. How can they get better via the trade market? Here are three propositions.TRADE NO. 1:

 

MINNESOTA RECEIVES: SS TREVOR STORY

 

COLORADO RECEIVES: MLB Pipeline No. 81, Twins No. 4 prospect RHP JORDAN BALAZOVIC

 

Why the Twins would accept:

 

The Twins have to ask themselves whether Jorge Polanco would be better suited in a utility role. Royce Lewis is seemingly on his way, but Polanco’s ankle and 2020 production cast doubt over the position for 2021. Enter Trevor Story and his one year, $18.5 million contract.

 

Story has the 10th most fWAR in baseball since 2018. He’s hit an outstanding .292/.355/.554 over that span. Before you point to the Coors Field factor, consider that Story’s OPS+, a ballpark adjusted stat, says he is a 22% above league average hitter. Story has also saved 20 runs over the last three seasons, the seventh most among shortstops.

 

The Twins could add one of the best players in the game with no long-term commitment while also protecting arguably their top pitching prospect in Jhoan Duran. Story’s $18.5 million salary in this market will seem hefty to a lot of teams. The Twins can take advantage.

 

Why the Rockies would accept:

 

There is no team that has more trouble signing, developing and producing starting pitching than the Colorado Rockies. Balazovic would instantly become their top pitching prospect and a key to the future. They aren’t competing anytime soon and will almost assuredly lose Story to free agency after the season. They would be dumb not to move him. The question is whether just Balazovic will be enough. Perhaps the Twins would throw in one more piece to encourage them, but the up-and-coming Canadian right-hander should be really enticing.

 

TRADE NO. 2:

 

MINNESOTA RECEIVES: RHP BRANDON WOODRUFF, LHP JOSH HADER

 

MILWAUKEE RECEIVES: MLB Pipeline No. 77, Twins No. 3 prospect OF TREVOR LARNACH, Twins No. 10 prospect RHP BLAYNE ENLOW, Twins No. 14 prospect OF MATT WALLNER, Twins No. 24 prospect RHP DAKOTA CHALMERS

 

Why the Twins would accept:

 

Brandon Woodruff has three more years of team control with a projected $3.4 million pricetag in 2021. That’s incredibly cheap for a pitcher who ties Justin Verlander with a 3.31 FIP since 2017. Woodruff averages over 96 mph on his four-seamer with an underused and underrated slider. The Twins would love to add the 6-foot-4 righty to what would be a world-class rotation.

 

Josh Hader ranks first in strikeout rate (44.1%), strikeout-to-walk rate (34.6%) and bWAR (tie, Felipe Vázquez - 7.1) among relievers since 2017. His slider remains one of the nastiest pitches in baseball and he’s due just $5.65 million in 2021 with three years of team control remaining. He would join Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers in a devastating bullpen.

 

The Twins have a very deep farm system, especially in outfielders. Losing Larnach and Wallner would no doubt hurt, but adding three full seasons (and one extra with Woodruff) of this tandem would be hard to turn down.

 

Why the Brewers would accept:

 

This side is tougher to justify. Woodruff is their ace and Hader carries the bullpen. On the other hand, Milwaukee owns the worst farm system in baseball. They would add their second best prospect in Larnach, a nearly MLB ready bat. Enlow owns a 3.36 ERA in the minors, Wallner is another young and exciting outfielder, and Chalmers throws gas. This package is filled with both certainty and upside. The Brewers could spark an inevitable rebuild by loading their brutal system.

 

TRADE NO. 3:

 

MINNESOTA RECEIVES: 2B/SS/CF KETEL MARTE

ARIZONA RECEIVES: Twins No. 7 prospect SS KEONI CAVACO, Twins No. 11 prospect RHP MATT CANTERINO, Twins No. 26 prospect OF EMMANUEL RODRÍGUEZ

 

Why the Twins would accept:

 

The 27-year-old Marte finished fourth for N.L. MVP in 2019 after hitting a nutty .329/.389/.592 (150 wRC+) with 32 home runs. He took a massive step back in 2020, but was it really? If you take out his 2019 campaign, Marte has hit .266/.324/.391 over 447 games. This was almost exactly on par with his .287/.323/.409 line in 2020. His bat fits the mold of a really solid utility player.

 

Marte’s value lies in his ability to play shortstop, second, center and an occasional third base. He’s a plus-20 runs defender at second in his career, a plus-4 runs defender at short, and a plus-5 defender in center. He also crushes left-handed pitching, owning a .294/.344/.495 (121 wRC+) slash against southpaws. The Twins could use that.

 

Marte’s contract is also incredibly favorable:

 

2021: $6.4 million guaranteed

2022: $8.4 million guaranteed

2023: $11 million club option ($1 million buyout)

2024: $13 million club option ($1.5 million buyout)

 

If the Twins believe Marte’s 2019 explosion is even close to re-attainable, this could be an absolute steal.

 

Why the Diamondbacks would accept:

 

Many picked the D-Backs as their surprise success in 2020. It couldn’t have gone worse. They finished dead last in the N.L. West and watched the young Padres establish themselves while the Dodgers won the World Series. Arizona isn’t close to October. They do have a very strong farm system and could add to it with two high-upside teenagers in Cavaco and Rodríguez. Canterino is a polished, projectable middle-to-back of the rotation starter as well. They already traded Starling Marte and Archie Bradley. Why not Ketel too for this return?

 

What do you think of these deals? Which would you accept as Derek Falvey and Thad Levine? Which would you decline? Who says no? Why? Comment below!

 

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[ashbury]

Story is a desirable upgrade, but a year and then he walks is a tough one for me to pull the trigger on. And I'm not super interested in trading much of anything for a utility player. Also, I would much rather the Twins trade from an area of oversupply, and pitching in the farm system isn't that.

 

So, I am most favorable to #2. I always want more pitching. Two corner outfield prospects seems redundant and something another team wouldn't go for, but it's where we are stacked up the most, so that's worth a try; the two pitchers additionally mentioned in the package represent what we'd hope might someday turn into what we'd be receiving in return, so I'm OK with including them. This all presupposes the professional talent evaluators don't think Hader's control problem in 2020 is permanent.

[darin617]

Those trades seem pretty one sided.

[Shaitan]

SS isn't a weakness on this roster. 

[Doctor Gast]

Love your article, Nash! Trades that address our weakness w/ great trade targets through our only option  our prospects. Our line up was very disappointing so trading them wouldn`t bring a desirable return (I believe the only stock that went up was Arraez & Dobnak). But I believe MIL, CO & AZ would want much more than what was suggested much more than maybe FO is willing to pay. MIL has a poor farm system but AZ has a good one so they`ll want more quality prospects. 

Polanco is a great hitter, although he can play SS, I believe he is over extending himself there. Putting a lot stress on him on the field which can effect his hitting. I`ve been a advocate for switching him to 2B for a long time (I believe he could become another Dozier, once he relaxes) & I dreamed of getting Story & I think is attainable. Just like the Maeda trade, although I like Maeda I hated giving away our much needed pitching prospect (I faulted FO for not trading from our abundance but instead our lack). Story would greatly upgrade our offense as well as our defense & like Nash said pitching prospect are   a premium especially in CO. Another option is Dobnak, although I`m a fan, I believe his GB efficiency would bring him much success in CO  

[DasBat]

I love the idea of getting Story. Only one year left makes me not do it for Balazovic.

I don’t think Milwaukee does the second one.

The third trade I would do

[TopGunn#22]

Assuming each of these trades is viable (and I get the skepticism of some on this site) I do all three.

 

I've been pining for Story for quite awhile.  Polanco is a below average glove and an above average bat (when his pull happiness is under control).  Story might be the best SS in baseball and that's saying something when you consider how much talent there is at that position.  You make that trade and you sign Story long term.  He would be the cornerstone of our franchise.  I make trade #2 because I want Hader.  He's a legit closer who we could limit the innings he's pitched, taking better care of him long term, because guys like Duffey and Rogers would own the 7th and 8th inning.  Woodruff AND Hader is probably too much, and as good as Woodruff is I don't think the Brewers give up both.  You get something else back instead (just trying to be realistic).  Hader's contract makes it possible to give Story a BIG Time contract.  Ketel Marte would be a regular player.  Where does he fit best.  Well before we get to that, he's the insurance for Buxton getting dinged.  He plays CF and we leave Max Kepler in RF.  But Marte looks to be BEST at 2B and that's where I would play him.  What does this do to Arraez ?  I love Arraez and think he should be the team's leadoff hitter.  He's average to below average as a 2B-man.  Certainly he's not in Marte's league defensively.  Do we make Arraez our super-utility guy?  And if we have Story and Marte what need have we for Polanco ?  And we still haven't offered Sano in any trades, which I think we certainly should.  I want Kiriloff at 1B next season.  So possibly Sano and Polonco are included in some of these deals.  Either way you'd have something like this:

 

C   Garver    Jeffers

1B  Kiriloff

2B  K. Marte   Arraez

3B  Donaldson   Blankenhorn

SS  T. Story

LF   Rooker

CF   Buxton

RF   M. Kepler

DH   Cruz

 

SP   Maeda, Berrios, Pineda   ________   ______

BP   Hader, Duffey, T. Rogers, Wisler, Theilbar, Alcala,  Etc...

 

The Twins haven't won a playoff game in forever.  Make some BIG moves and become a REAL contender.       

[jjswol]

I don't think the Twins need another hitter (Story) that strikes out 170+ times every season. 

[tony&rodney]

The suggestions for trades are pretty decent because they each aim to improve the local squad. I like that. It is what i want to see from Falvine; two heads better than one.

No matter how we turn this winter the budget will ultimately drive all trades and free agent signings. Like many of the readers, I play with ideas that range from a reduced financial state to an idea of largesse towards contracts. In all scenarios there are good options and the one thing that pains me is to see and hear so much discussion of moving on from those bombs from 2019 in some form or another. Garver, Sano, Cruz, Rosario, and Kepler all took pitchers deep and now more than a few of these players may not wear the Twins colors next summer.

The post suggests Story but his contract would push aside several others and reduce our options for the bullpen and starting pitching. Ketel is intriguing but his salary commitment is significant in an area we may have other options. The Woodruff trade seems to be the most likely to fill a real need for MN. I'm not sure the Brewers are interested, however. What if we sent sent Garver instead of Larnach and dropped Hader from the deal? Woodruff would fit in nicely as a #3 pitcher for us. I'm also wondering what is needed to pry Snell away from TB.

[mikelink45]

The second trade is the only one I am interested in and if Milwaukee does it they really need a sports psychologist to make a visit.

[DocBauer]

Yet another fun and interesting podcast. Really enjoyed it! Thanks again guys!

 

All 3 scenarios have merit, and I don't feel any of them are outlandish in any way. (Though each may have to be tweaked slightly).

 

Just my opinions/thoughts on each:

 

1] The Twins system had added a lot of arms with hope/projectability including a few with some pretty high upside. But I'm not yet content to move any of them just yet unless I feel the return is fully justified. And I don't buy the old adage "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Of course there are! That's why you draft and sign them...and then hope for the best just like any position.

 

With all due respect to Story, I don't see what very easily could be a 1yr rental as a smart gamble. A healthy Polanco is still a good ballplayer. Your top prospect could supplant him over the next couple of years. I just don't make this deal.

 

2] Would the Brewers really be crazy to make this deal? They have payroll to worry about like a lot of teams. Reportedly, they have a bad farm system. Do they really see themselves contending the next couple of seasons? If not, this deal actually makes a lot of sense for them, adding more prospect ammunition for a re-build. Woodruff and Hader could easily be about ready to leave just as the Bewers might be getting "good" again.

 

Now, that being said, were I them, I'm debating Celestino over Wallner for the 2nd OF. I also think I want a 3rd arm such as Sands or Colina maybe. I think Canterino would be too much, unless he replaces someone. Lastly, I'm going to ask for Cave or Wade as a final piece to give me a decent, young-ish OF to provide immediate depth and the ability to stick around a few years. Virtually all of these guys could be ready over the next 2 seasons.

 

IMO, the Brewers would not be crazy to make this deal...with the additional tweaks...if they reaĺy don't see themselves contending for a couple of years. They have to replenish or face some very dark days.

 

3] Fully confessing I don't know Ketel Marte as I just don't follow AZ at all. I like everything I've heard and read however. He fits a need as a true 10th man, which I don't think is unimportant. His numbers are solid, his versatility excellent, defense seems to be good to even better. Really smart out of the box thinking on this one. I'm tempted.

 

Despite immense talent and potential, the Twins could absorb the losses of Cavaco and Rodriguez as well as Canterino due to being ready to win now, and having such a deep system. I AM concerned about Marte's contract situation in '23 and '24, but he would only be 29 & 30yrs old those seasons and if he continues to play and produce similarly at those ages...not the least bit OLD and probably still in his physical prime...he could absolutely be worth those $ numbers, especially considering other contracts coming off the books for younger players potentially and a fairly affordable first 2yrs.

 

Final analysis?

 

1] No. I don't like an expensive 1 shot deal that isn't a SP.

2] Yes, even with tweaks and additional prospect cost.

3] Maybe. Again I'm very tempted here. But not so sure I wouldn't hold on the prospects involved for now and spend $5-7M on one of the quality FA 10th man options that are on the market.

[Andrew Bryzgornia]

I have to agree, the first two trades seem pretty lopsided for the Twins, even if Story is one year away from free agency. 

 

The third trade seems to be on the opposite side, it might be favorable for the Diamondbacks. However, if the Twins were absolutely convinced they could get Marte somewhere between his 2018/2020 and his 2019 performances, then I'd say it's a fair trade.

[Doctor Gast]

It`s nice to dream but we need to be realistic, Woodruff alone could cost us all our top 5 prospects. I`m not in favor of this. Hader is not a need. Marte would be very nice but he`d cost us Royce Lewis plus $32.8M salary this year what would that do to Twins payroll, how much over budget are they willing to go? Story is more attainable, Larnach is close to trade value but CO would probably want both Balazovic & Dobnak. His salary this year is $18,2M, that would stretch the budget. 

[ashbury]

Marte would be very nice but he`d cost us Royce Lewis plus $32.8M salary this year

I believe that's for 4 years, if the contract goes its full length.

 

b-r.com has him earning $6.4M in 2021 and $8.4M in 2022. After that, ties can be cut with a $1M buyout; otherwise the succeeding years are $8M and $10M.

 

That kind of money sounds about market-correct for a high-end utility type, if that terminology makes sense, who is past the years with zero contract leverage. Marwin made a little more, for instance, as a full-fledged free agent.

 

[rv78]

#1 Definitely NO. Polanco is 1 year past(2019) a .295BA 22HR season. He made 2 Errors in 53 games in 2020. Sure his range isn't great but with Story at $18.5M and only 1 season at that it is not enough of an upgrade IF Polanco can comeback in 2021 with a season like he had in 2019. Don't forget, defense is NOT what lost the playoff games in 2020. It was hitting and while Story may be a slightly better hitter than Polanco it isn't anything great enough to warrant a change for that purpose and that kind of money. They'd be better off throwing that money at Nelson Cruz. Besides Polanco is signed thru 2023 with options for '24 and '25. I don't envision the Twins making him a utility player. 

 

#2 Will never happen. Sure the Twins were able to pry Maeda away from the Dodgers only because the Dodgers were already loaded with top pitchers. Milwaukee isn't. Woodruff would cost a whole lot more than you suggest even without Hader. Period.

 

#3 Not interested in super utility guys. I'm fully committed to a Polanco and Arraez combination up the middle and I'd rather see the Twins pursue someone like Kevin Pillar as a 4th outfielder. He'd easily replace Buck in CF when he gets hurt. The Twins need to improve their hitting and Pillar would give them a major upgrade over Cave.

[Finlander]

It is difficult to trade within the division, but I wonder if KC might match up in a Merrifield deal. They need OF help, preferably lefty. We can supply that. Might cost us Arraez too..

[Doctor Gast]

 

I believe that's for 4 years, if the contract goes its full length.

 

b-r.com has him earning $6.4M in 2021 and $8.4M in 2022. After that, ties can be cut with a $1M buyout; otherwise the succeeding years are $8M and $10M.

 

That kind of money sounds about market-correct for a high-end utility type, if that terminology makes sense, who is past the years with zero contract leverage. Marwin made a little more, for instance, as a full-fledged free agent.
 

Thank you Ash for clearing that up. In that case it make much more sense & I`d be all in if AZ would accept an offer of several lessor value prospects. Defense is an issue especially w/ Donaldson  & or Buxton out the line up, hitting was in a slump last season but has tremendous potential.  

[TopGunn#22]

Just a couple more observations:

Story is not just a "slightly better" hitter than Polanco.  He's epically better.  Story's defense is Gold Glove worthy.  He would be a MAJOR upgrade over Polanco.  The key with any deal for Story is to sign him to a long-term extension.  I agree, you don't give up what we would in a deal for him to let him get away after one season.  Story would be the position player the Twins build around.  If there was any doubt on an extension, you don't make this trade.  To afford Story's  $18.2 million I include Sano in the trade and ask for a SP back  Marquez or ?.  The Rockies would be intrigued by Sano's power in Coors and they have a hole at 1B.  Sano's $11.5 plus the departure of Rosario's $10 million makes Story affordable.  And having Story is better than having Sano/Rosario.   

 

I understand the "why" for the Brewers in the trade.  But if I was able to acquire BOTH Woodruff and Hader I'd be willing to give up a little more.  Until Berrios takes that BIG step, Woodruff would be our #2 behind Maeda.    Hader is certainly needed to hold down the 9th inning and let Duffey & Rogers own the 7th and 8th.  

 

I think some people posting don't understand what a special player Ketel Marte is.  He's tremendously versatile.  He would be a big upgrade over Arraez at 2B.  He could play extensive games in CF if Buxton was injured.  He's a really good hitter.  He would be a "starter."  An everyday lineup guy.  He could play 2B, CF, SS, LF or RF.  I like his defense at 2B much more than Arraez.  But I also want Arraez in the lineup everyday and at the top of the order.  So Marte is playing different positions frequently and hitting 2nd behind Arraez in our new lineup. 

 

The White Sox are building a team to contend for an extended period of time.  The Indians, even if they trade Lindor will always compete because they PITCH.  The Twins need to make some bold moves this off-season to remain the Big Dog in the division.  The current cast of characters has flopped in the post-season.  New blood is needed. 

 

Arraez       2B

K. Marte    LF

N. Cruz     DH

T. Story     SS

M. Kepler   RF

Donaldson  3B

Kiriloff        1B

Garver        C

Buxton      CF

 

Rooker  LF/1B/DH

 

Maeda, Woodruff, Berrios, Pindea  Rich Hill/Dobnak

Hader, Duffey, T. Rodgers, Alcala, Theilbar, Colina, Wisler, 

 

It's an interesting team.

 

[Trov]

NOOOOOOOO! to the Story proposed traded.  That would be a terrible trade for so many reasons.  First, he only has 1 year of control, so you give up a top pitching prospect, and we know how many of those you need, for a 1 year rental?  To make things worse, look at Story's splits.  His home road splits are crazy, so he gets huge boost from Coors Field.  His road splits are Polonco numbers.  So you trade a 6 years of control possible high end starter, for a 1 year rental for who you already have?  WHY?  This proposed trade make no sense and I would call for the firing of the front office if they did it. 

 

The other 2 I am much more okay with, but Hader has been losing his stuff very quickly, in my opinion.  He still can go out there and be good, but he is not the shut everything down kind of guy like he used to be.  

 

The Marte trade is a little questionable as his home road splits suggest a little boost from playing in AZ like many other hitters get, but not as bad as Story, and for 4 years of control giving up lower level prospects are not as bad.  

 

For the record, I was big on Story coming into the offseason and thought a cheap rental for him could be good, but then I looked up his home road splits and they are terrible for his whole career.  I also look at that when a hitter comes from CO. 

[Rosterman]

Here's one. Arbitration swap. Rosario to the Tigers for Matthew Boyd. Would we be willing to pay Boyd $7-8 million and hope for a bounce back to go thru arbitration again the following season. Would Detroit like Rosario enough to offer him $10 million (or long-term). Does each team pass along a low-level prospect?

 

Twins get a pretty solid lefty arm for the far backend of the rotation. And does adding Boyd make arms like Thorpe or Smeltzer expendable and part of this trade?

 

Does the Tigers have any blocked prospects the Twins would crave?

 

[TopGunn#22]

That's an interesting "arbitration swap" Rosterman.  If Gardy was still the Tiger skipper it would probably have more steam, but Eddie would give the Tigers a veteran, middle of the order bat and Boyd as a #4 or #5 would be very interesting.

[tony&rodney]

Drew Smily signs with ATL for $11 million and the board gets more interesting. 

Here are some wandering thoughts on the possibilities of trades and other nonesense.

For no particular reason, I am hoarding Kirilloff and Larnach because they are both true bats. Then, in consideration of Nash Walker's industrious proposals, the Ketel Marte trade looks good. Additions to make it happen are possible in my view, including Cave, and ARI may benefit from an infusion of new looks. What is the market for Sano? Whenever the Twins hit, he and Buxton are my two can't miss at bats. Sano is fearsome. Miami might be interested though. Can we pry away Max Meyer? Talk with Rich Hill and Cory Kluber. The Twins need to be careful. Waiting too long may boost the prices of both free agents and trades. Marte gives the Twins great flexibility on both offense and defense. If he might be available there is a definite need. The trade for Woodruff sounds promising but I'm hesitant to deliver Larnach and the Brewers may actually want more players. Profar may be easier to sign but I believe Walker is on to something with Marte. 

[rv78]

Member
225 posts
Posted 15 November 2020 - 08:55 AM

Just a couple more observations:

Story is not just a "slightly better" hitter than Polanco.He's epically better.

 

Sorry TopGunn but he IS NOT EPICALLY BETTER. In 5 years he has a .277 BA to Polancos .278. His OBP is .343 to Polancos .335. Yes he has hit more HR but he has also played in 100 more games and he plays half of them in Colorado. He's also struckout 726 times compared to 340 for Polanco. 

HARDLY EPIC!