Re-Signing Jake Odorizzi Needs to be a Priority for the Minnesota Twins

[Matthew Taylor]

With only three pitchers locked into the rotation for the 2021 season, starting pitching is a need that the Minnesota Twins must address this offseason. After free agent targets Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman came off the market on Wednesday, it became clear that Jake Odorizzi needs to be a priority for the Minnesota Twins.Wednesday afternoon was the deadline for Major League players to accept or decline the one-year, $18.9M qualifying offers that they were offered. Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman were two of those players, and each of them opted to accept the one-year offer and re-join the Mets and Giants respectively.

 

This was major news for the Minnesota Twins as Stroman and Gausman were both pitchers who made a lot of sense as free agent targets for the reigning AL Central champions. With Trevor Bauer likely a pipe dream for the Twins and Tanaka likely returning in pinstripes next season, Stroman and Gausman were in that next tier of free agent starting pitchers with tremendous upside at a more reasonable cost. Now that they are both off the table, the list of impact starting pitchers has been trimmed considerably. Left in that group are James Paxton, who has injury concerns and will need to be pried away from the Yankees, José Quintana, who doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, Charlie Morton, who has already expressed a desire to stay on the east coast, and a name that Minnesota Twins fans are very familiar with — Jake Odorizzi.

 

Jake Odorizzi has had an up-and-down tenure with the Minnesota Twins over the past three seasons. After a shaky debut in 2018, Odorizzi added velocity to his fastball in 2019 and posted the best season of his career, with an all-star appearance and a 3.51 ERA. 2020 was, unfortunately, a lost season for Odorizzi, who battled injuries all year and was only able to throw 13 2/3 innings.

 

Because of his lost season in 2020, it’s easy to forget just how dominant of a pitcher Odorizzi was in 2019. While Kenta Maeda just posted an incredible season for the Minnesota Twins en route to finishing second in American League Cy Young voting, Jake Odorizzi had arguably a better 60-game stretch to start the 2019 season. Over the first 60 games of the 2019 season, Odorizzi bested Maeda in both ERA and FIP.

 

Some additional highlights from Odorizzi’s 2019 season:

• Odorizzi’s ERA+ of 131 is the second best single-season number by a Twins pitcher since 2010.
• Odorizzi’s K/9 of 10.08 remains the third best single-season K/9 in Twins history after Tom Hall in 1970 and Johan Santana in 2004.
• Odorizzi delivered the best pitching performance for the Minnesota Twins in the 2019 postseason, allowing just two earned runs in five innings while striking out five in Game 3 of the ALDS against the New York Yankees.

Odorizzi and the Minnesota Twins organization both have great deal of familiarity with each other, so bringing back the right hander makes a lot of sense. Additionally, there’s reason to believe that the price tag on Odorizzi may be depressed due to his struggles from the 2020 season. Odorizzi is still just 30 years old and might still have his best years ahead of him.

 

Assuming that the price tag is within range of what the Minnesota Twins are looking to spend, the key question will be what the interest level is for Odorizzi to return to the Land of 10,000 lakes on a potential multi-year contract. All signs point to Odorizzi enjoying his time with the Minnesota Twins, and a great fit with Wes Johnson as his pitching coach. However, after the qualifying offer kept him from cashing in on a long-term deal last offseason, as well as being held out of the 2020 postseason, it’s fair to wonder if Odorizzi is ready to move onto a different franchise and hopefully find better luck elsewhere.

 

As currently constructed the Minnesota Twins would be relying on Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnak as their fourth and fifth starting pitchers, with the hope of a younger prospect such as Jhoan Duran making an impact later in the season. With championship aspirations in mind, the Twins simply need to add more impact pitching. The trade market will certainly be something the Twins will look to explore this offseason, but adding an impact starting pitcher via free agency is another area the Twins will need to capitalize on. While it’s often tempting to look outside the organization for those impact free agents, the Minnesota Twins don’t need to look far to bring back their impact pitcher, as Jake Odorizzi would be a huge piece to kick-start a big season in 2021.

 

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[ashbury]

My main concern is that he will never again pitch enough innings to qualify for an ERA title, due to fragility and pitch inefficiency, and the cost-benefit ratio is thus not as good as might at first glance be expected. But, good pitching is hard to acquire, and if the FO can't see a better avenue for obtaining it, I won't complain too greatly if we end up signing him. I just don't think he'd be my top priority, going into the negotiating period.

[theBOMisthebomb]

I'd like to see some new blood to get the Twins over the postseason hump. Odorizzi is a capable pitcher and I won't be upset if the Twins bring him back. I just don't see signing Jake as a step closer to a World Series, it's more treading water.

[mnfireman]

I am not an Odorizzi fan but one of the MLB Network analysts, O'Dowd I believe, said he would sign him based on velo, age, and no arm/shoulder injuries. I guess I say give him an offer and see what he says.

[DocBauer]

I still believe we will see a big DFA market to saturate the FA market and, potentially, cheap and late signing values. But what I find intriguing is Ray signing quickly as well as Stoman and Glausman accepting their QO. It means some players are willing/smart enough to grab what they can when offered. Also indicates at least some teams are smart/brave enough to keep an important piece of their puzzle despite financial concerns.

 

I disagree Odorizzi was shaky in 2018. He was still solid. He was borderline outstanding in 2019, even as a 5+ IP thrower. His injuries in 2020 were freaky and in no way career threatening.

 

Barring a trade for someone, he's a perfect fit for around $12-13M, whether it be 1yr or 3yr.

 

He's no ACE, but who ever said he was? But he IS good! And he wants to be here. This really should be a happy no brainer sign unless demands get out of whack.

[HrbieFan]

Odorizzi is a Five and Fly pitcher now. Is it possible he works out his control and goes 6-7 on a regular basis, yes, but not probable. I'd rather take a few cheaper flyers on guys like Walker and Tiers, than commit big dollars to Odo.

[rdehring]

Yes, yes and yes. Just not for the same dollars he got last year. But I want him back as our #3, pushing Pineda to #4. That would be one heck of a rotation with the Dobber filling out #5.

 

 

[Dodecahedron]

A lot of teams will be looking at Odorizzi, in spite of him being a career #3.

 

I would caution against overvaluing his 1 year as a #1/#2, unless the Twins are certain that it wasn't a fluke.

 

Odorizzi will want a long contract, and he will not be cheap. I'm not sure the Twins want to plop $60M on Odorizzi right now.

[Doctor Gast]

FO knows what Odorizzi has, what he is capable of & that there`s nothing more to work on. So I picture them pursuing someone on the cheap that they can tweak. But if nothing works out I can see them bringing him back 

[Shaitan]

If they're confident he's healthy, yes.

[jkcarew]

There’s a rotation slot and a price I’d give to Odorizzi. They’re both pretty low.

 

Not enough innings and too many pitches...and that’s when he’s NOT getting hit...and when he IS healthy.

[yeahyabetcha]

He fits perfectly into the get 5 innings then run out 3 or 4 relievers strategy that we all love. Why would they not bring him back???

[yeahyabetcha]

-

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Interesting that you say Tanaka is likely returning in pinstripes and Paxton will need to be pried from the Yankees - I don't really see those two as such foundational pieces there that returning to the Yankees would be a foregone conclusion, or that other teams would have difficulty entering the bidding.

[Danchat]

A lot of teams will be looking at Odorizzi, in spite of him being a career #3.

 

I would caution against overvaluing his 1 year as a #1/#2, unless the Twins are certain that it wasn't a fluke.

 

Odorizzi will want a long contract, and he will not be cheap. I'm not sure the Twins want to plop $60M on Odorizzi right now.

Odorizzi isn’t getting $60M in this market... $30M might be a stretch.

[DocBauer]

Odorizzi isn’t getting $60M in this market... $30M might be a stretch.

 

You may be right as we just know so little how this market is going to play out. But the back issue that slowed him to begin the year might be explained by the short ramp up to begin this season. He had a back issue in 2017 that hindered him with Tampa, but showed no signs of it being an issue in 2018 or 2019.

 

The other injuries that provided a lost year this past season were flukish in nature and not major or potentially debilitating in any way. He will only be 31 next season. While not the exact player if Ray is worth $8M for 2021, I'd say Jake should be worth the same at least. Now, does he or anyone want a 1yr deal only? Is he looking hard for a multi-year deal? Does anyone offer it? Way too many unknowns.

 

I think Doctor Gast hit it on the head when he stated the Twins know who Odorizzi is and what he can do. (As well as what he HAS done). Sometimes, dancing with the one you brought is better than looking for a different partner, to paraphrase an old axiom. I'd jump at 1yr and $10M. I'd strongly consider 3yrs at $30M myself. And IMO, Oddo would have to strongly considering it as the market after 2021 could still be convoluted, especially if a bunch of guys end up only on 1yr deals for next year.

 

Good, solid ML SP...even 3/4 types are often worth $10-12M per. Sometimes more. I would consider 3yrs at $36M...but how much do the Twins really believe in him is the question.

[Major League Ready]

 

You may be right as we just know so little how this market is going to play out. But the back issue that slowed him to begin the year might be explained by the short ramp up to begin this season. He had a back issue in 2017 that hindered him with Tampa, but showed no signs of it being an issue in 2018 or 2019. The other injuries that provided a lost year this past season were flukish in nature and not major or potentially debilitating in any way. He will only be 31 next season. While not the exact player if Ray is worth $8M for 2021, I'd say Jake should be worth the same at least. Now, does he or anyone want a 1yr deal only? Is he looking hard for a multi-year deal? Does anyone offer it? Way too many unknowns. I think Doctor Gast hit it on the head when he stated the Twins know who Odorizzi is and what he can do. (As well as what he HAS done). Sometimes, dancing with the one you brought is better than looking for a different partner, to paraphrase an old axiom. I'd jump at 1yr and $10M. I'd strongly consider 3yrs at $30M myself. And IMO, Oddo would have to strongly considering it as the market after 2021 could still be convoluted, especially if a bunch of guys end up only on 1yr deals for next year. Good, solid ML SP...even 3/4 types are often worth $10-12M per. Sometimes more. I would consider 3yrs at $36M...but how much do the Twins really believe in him is the question.

 

I was thinking the same thing in terms of a 3 year deal but not just where Odorizzi is concerned.  There should be some great deals to be made. Landing a couple guys worthy of a 3 year deal almost certainly means a substantial loss this year. However, there is a reasonable pitch to be made to ownership. The FO would have to show a 3 year financial plan that demonstrates flexibility in years 2-3. Option years would help validate this plan. It's possible 3 year deals could be made this year that represent enough savings in years 2-3 to make it worthwhile to take the hit this year.

 

Tijuan Walker is another guy that might make sense on a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option. I know this year was a SSS but it seemed like he finally was healthy and got it together. Anyone else think he might make sense? 

[DocBauer]

I was thinking the same thing in terms of a 3 year deal but not just where Odorizzi is concerned.  There should be some great deals to be made. Landing a couple guys worthy of a 3 year deal almost certainly means a substantial loss this year. However, there is a reasonable pitch to be made to ownership. The FO would have to show a 3 year financial plan that demonstrates flexibility in years 2-3. Option years would help validate this plan. It's possible 3 year deals could be made this year that represent enough savings in years 2-3 to make it worthwhile to take the hit this year.

 

Tijuan Walker is another guy that might make sense on a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option. I know this year was a SSS but it seemed like he finally was healthy and got it together. Anyone else think he might make sense?

 

We're kind of thinking along the same lines. But Stoman and Gausman are gone. So is Ray. Not saying I was necessarily IN on those guys, but I found them of interest.

 

I'm OK on Smyly. I'm tantalized, scared and interested all at once on Kluber. Even at 35 can you imagine him suddenly healthy and ready to go? But he is a low investment to me at this point.

 

Barring trade, I'm just not sure the market has anyone better than Odorzzi. And that's not a negative shot at him. I just think he might be the best option. But I do like Walker. I liked him last off-season. Not sure about about an extended deal. But I do like him.

[tony&rodney]

If Odorizzi is going to cost $12+ million and the Twins are going to stay below $130 million, then a trade or a flyer on a Kluber/Hill combo might make more sense. Totally agree with Odorizzi at $10 million but I believe someone will offer him more money and multiple years. The Twins could use the money towards acquiring a bullpen piece.

[wabene]

I would sign Odo. I like his mettle, he is a guy that will show up. You could tell getting the game 3 start rankled him and his determination showed. That makes him a playoff caliber pitcher in some role anyway. I also see a good chance for durability with him and his smooth delivery. 3-36 max?

[Dodecahedron]

 

Odorizzi isn’t getting $60M in this market... $30M might be a stretch.

 

I expect him to ask for a 4-year contract.  He might get three, but it'll be $15M/per either way. 

 

I see $12M thrown around in this thread -- he will get more than that even if he can only get another 1 year deal.

[tony&rodney]

Odorizzi looks pretty good on Monday afternoon, now that Smily signed for $11 million. Still, it might be prudent to attempt a few free agent signings of the bigger fish first. Quick now may uncover a gem later. Then again, after today the players may be rethinking their worth in the market.