Twins Free Agent Targets: Relief Pitcher

[Nick Nelson]

Relief pitching was a major source of strength for the Minnesota Twins in 2020. If they hope to keep it that way next season, they might have their work cut out for them.

 

The bullpen faces losing much of its core to free agency, but the good news is that (for related reasons) a deep market awaits. Let's explore it.On Thursday night's episode of Offseason Live I was joined by Tom Froemming and Matt Braun. Each of us submitted our own preferred targets for the bullpen, and those choices were discussed and debated. You can watch it all play out below, or keep reading for a breakdown of what's available, and which targets stand out as our favorite fits for the Twins.

 

 

Free Agent Relief Pitchers at a Glance

The Need: Sergio Romo, Trevor May, and Tyler Clippard are all free agents. Those three represented more than a quarter of Minnesota's bullpen innings in 2020, nearly all of them high-leverage. Toss in Taylor Rogers, who is by no means a lock to be retained with an arbitration pricetag in the $6-7 million range, and the Twins may be seeking to replenish a vast majority of their late-inning firepower. Granted, any or all of those relievers could be brought back (we discussed those possibilities on the

and

episodes), but there are many intriguing external options out there to sift through as well.

The Market (This list is not comprehensive):

• Liam Hendriks
• Brand Hand
• Trevor Rosenthal
• Alex Colomé
• Blake Treinen
• Kirby Yates
• Sean Doolittle
• Brandon Workman
• Greg Holland
• Shane Greene
• Mark Melancon
• Trevor May
• Yusmeiro Petit
• Ken Giles
• Shane Greene
• Keone Kela
• Pedro Báez
• Joakim Soria
• Oliver Pérez
• Justin Wilson
• Jeremy Jeffress
• Sergio Romo
• Tyler Clippard
• Jake McGee
• Pedro Strop
• Juan Nicasio

For this episode of Offseason Live, each of the three panelists was asked to pick one target in three different tiers.

• Tier 1: Ambitious and relatively expensive high-end free agent relievers. (Rogers tier)
• Tier 2: Mid-level options in the $3-5 million estimated salary range. (Clippard/Romo tier)
• Tier 3: Sleepers and flyers available potential minor-league deals. (Wisler tier)

Our Tier 1 Targets

Kirby Yates, RHP

Age: 33

Former Team: San Diego

2020 Stats: 4.1 IP, 12.46 ERA, 2.54 WHIP, 16.6 K/9, 8.3 BB/9

 

Why He's a Fit: One could argue that a top-tier closer is Minnesota's most glaring need this offseason. Rogers and Romo partnered for that role in 2020, and both are expensive and optional to bring back. The Twins could theoretically save much of the money it would've cost to pay them and instead sign someone like Yates, who's coming off a season lost to injury (and surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow) but was previously perhaps the best closer in the majors. In 2019 he led the NL in saves with a 1.19 ERA. There's obviously some risk at age 33 with the elbow uncertainty, but for that reason he could be a value buy.

 

Estimated 2021 Salary: $5 million

 

Brad Hand, LHP

Age: 30

Former Team: Cleveland

2020 Stats: 22 IP, 2.05 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9

 

Why He's a Fit: Hand is similar to Yates in that he's a proven All-Star closer, but there's less risk since he's coming off an outstanding (and healthy) 2020 campaign. Hand led the AL in saves and posted a 2.05 ERA for Cleveland, but the Indians declined his $10 million option nonetheless. He could serve as either a Rogers replacement, or a high-powered complement at the back end.

 

Estimated 2021 Salary: $8 million

 

Liam Hendriks, RHP

Age: 31

Former Team: Oakland

2020 Stats: 25.1 IP, 1.78 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 13.1 K/9, 1.1 BB/9

 

Why He's a Fit: For all the same reasons as Hand and Yates, basically. Like them, Hendriks brings the ability of an elite All-Star closer. But he also brings the least risk, because he's been incredibly consistent and durable since blossoming for the A's. Since 2019, he ranks first among MLB relievers in fWAR, leading the pack by a wide margin. He has a decisive argument as the best reliever in baseball. Granted, it's a volatile position and a difficult one to invest premium dollars into, but Hendriks is about as reliable as it gets, and the circumstances of this offseason may create a unique opportunity to lock the former Twin up at a relatively reasonable rate.

 

Estimated 2021 Salary: $10 million

 

 

Our Tier 2 Targets

Yusmeiro Petit, RHP

Age: 35

Former Team: Oakland

2020 Stats: 21.2 IP, 1.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9

 

Why He's a Fit: He's a more realistic target than Hendriks among departing A's. No, Petit wasn't quite at Liam's level, but he's been extremely good in his own right over the past two seasons with a 2.49 ERA in 104 ⅔ innings. During that span he's made 106 appearances, more than any other MLB reliever. The appeal of Petit is simple: a durable, experienced, and highly effective veteran setup man.

 

Estimated 2021 Salary: $5 million

 

Tommy Hunter, RHP

Age: 34

Former Team: Philadelphia

2020 Stats: 24.2 IP, 4.01 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9

 

Why He's a Fit: He's a righty power arm to replace May. Hunter has a 3.24 ERA in eight seasons since moving to full-time bullpen duty. He's been a dependable bullpen workhorse and would provide some steadiness as the Twins experiment around him. Also, his fastball and curveball both have crazy high spin rates, so there might be another level to unlock.

 

Estimated 2021 Salary: $4 million

 

Justin Wilson, LHP

Age: 34

Former Team: Philadelphia

2020 Stats: 19.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 4.1 BB/9

 

Why He's a Fit: If the Twins don't re-sign Clippard, they'll lose their nominal "lefty specialist." Wilson would be a high-upside option to fill that role, and he's similar to Clippard in that he's more of an all-around asset: excellent against lefties, good against righties. Wilson has posted a K/9 above 10.0 in five straight seasons. Shaky control is his biggest red flag, but the BB/9 rate has dropped in consecutive seasons.

 

Estimated 2021 Salary: $4 million

 

 

Our Tier 3 Targets

Brandon Kline, RHP

Age: 29

Former Team: Baltimore

2020 Stats: 5.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 5.4 BB/9

 

Why He's a Fit: This was a deep dive from Tom. Kline is a 29-year-old who's thrown only 46 total innings in the majors, with a 5.48 ERA to boot, and now enters the free agent pool without much of a rep. What he does have is a lively upper-90s fastball, and as a former second-round draft pick, a bit of pedigree. He'll almost certainly be available on a non-guaranteed deal, and is an example of the upside project this front office has gravitated toward.

 

Estimated 2021 Salary: $1 million or minor-league deal

 

Nate Jones, RHP

Age: 34

Former Team: Cincinnati

2020 Stats: 18.2 IP, 6.27 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9

 

Why He's a Fit: Twins fans are familiar with Jones' premium velocity and general dominance from his days with the White Sox. He's got a terrific arm but has hit some speed bumps lately, which is exactly why he'll be available on an incentive-laden, possibly non-guaranteed deal. This is the kind of arm you bring into camp and take a look at, because if he's healthy and clicking, he's a real difference-maker.

 

Estimated 2021 Salary: $1 million or minor-league deal

 

David Robertson, RHP

Age: 35

Former Team: Philadelphia

2020 Stats: Did Not Pitch (TJ Surgery)

 

Why He's a Fit: Robertson's not much different from Jones, except that his ceiling and risk are both higher. He was very consistently one of the best and most overpowering relievers in baseball for a decade up until his disaster $23 million contract with Philadelphia, in which he made several total appearances over two seasons. Now 35, he needs a chance to prove he's still got it. Minnesota offers an inviting contender destination.

 

Estimated 2021 Salary: $1 million or minor-league deal

 

Let us know in the comments who you like at these positions, or if there's another approach you'd prefer to free agency. In the meantime, check out previous episodes of Offseason Live and see what's upcoming:

• Ep 1:
  (Thurs, 10/8)
• Ep 2:
  (Tues, 10/13)
• Ep 3:
  (Thurs, 10/15)
• Ep 4:
  (Tues, 10/20)
• Ep 5:
  (Thurs, 10/22)
• Ep 6:
  (Tues, 10/27)
• Ep 7:
  (Thurs, 10/29)
• Ep 8:
  (Thurs, 11/5)
• Ep 9: Twins Trade Targets (Thurs, 11/12)
• Ep 10: Offseason Blueprints (Tues, 11/17)

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[Doctor Gast]

Unfortunately, I believe the feeling of the teams is that there will be a big discount on relievers. That being said I believe the Twins would think in this market that they could save money by letting Rogers go & try to resign him or find a comparable replacement. I`d like them to resign Clippard, him & any good deal try to get a 2 yr. deal

Cleveland is very confident w/ their ability to scout great talent & developing it. So they don`t hesitate to let go pitchers. to the extent of aces. Twins have shown the same talent w/ BP, so I imagine they`ll see what they can do w/ the recent additions & their farm prospects

[yeahyabetcha]

My guess is the Twins will sign a couple of relievers, likely at the Clippard level of pay and lower, assuming they keep Rogers. Alcala, Stashsk, Wisler may be tried in the later innings in 2021.

 

And this may be off topic but.......could the practice of running a new pitcher out for every inning, stop?? In this day when a starter is pulled after 5 or 6 innings, teams are counting on 3 or 4 pitchers to all be “on” and available that night. Maybe if Duffey comes in and pitches a quick 8 pitch inning , he could be asked to pitch another inning, instead of automatically going to Romo and seeing why he has that night.

[4twinsJA]

What about prospects, could TD have a couple of episodes about SP and RP in Twins organization?

[T_J]

Every single team passed on Hand at 10m. I can't imagine he'll get 8m. That really should be an indicator of what the RP market will look like.

[beckmt]

I am guessing Hand gets to a two year contract (maybe with a option) in the 7 - 8 million a year range.  He is a difference maker.

[tony&rodney]

Liam Hendriks-3/$33. Do it.

[DocBauer]

First off, just want to say this podcast was outstanding! It was well laid out from top to bottom with options and opinions and thoroughly entertaining.

 

Just a couple quick points:

 

1] Payroll is just such a mystery not only for the Twins, but for everyone. It's great that the TD staff and ML Traderumors and others offer up speculated contract offers. And while some guys WILL GET PAID, I still think a lot of the proposed numbers are high, including some of the targets I've seen for RP. Hand is a perfect example of how crazy this market may be. For every team to pass on him at $10M indicates a drop in $ across the board, IMO.

 

2] I think the Twins FO and staff have a really good eye for BP talent. And I have faith they will end up with a solid to great bullpen in 2021 no matter what direction they ultimately take.

 

Those things being said, the Twins are a TOP contender with a wide open window with talent on hand, options available, and young talent on the way. But one way to KEEP being a contender is to make sure the pitching staff doesn't regress. My PERFECT scenario would be as follows:

 

Rogers: $6M

May: $5M

Clippard: $3M (maybe as low as $2.5M)

Yates: $4M

 

And there is more than enough depth to not only complete the pen, but to have depth on hand. But that's roughly $18M...not a large amount really...applied to the $37M available to spend to reach the proposed $125M payroll target we are speculating. That leaves $18M left for a SP and Cruz, while ignoring any decent 10th man utility player signing.

 

That's just not going to work.

 

Clippard may be too good, too dependable and too cheap to not bring back. I think you have to decide if May or Yates makes the most sense. Yates has the track record but is a health question mark while May is younger, healthier, and may have another level left in him.

 

My best guess? Rogers is back, Clippard is back, SOMEONE in the May-Yates-Hunter category MIGHT be signed for $3-4M and a flier is taken on a milb/$1M deal like the examples of Kline-Jones-Robertson. (Incentives could be thrown in, but would gladly be paid out if performance earned them I'd think).

 

Depending on the proposed 3rd signing, the Twins then have $24-28M for Cruz, SP (Odorizzi?), Adrianza and a solid 10th man utility option. That's cutting things really close, but is do-able.

 

Really wish the $ was there for $130M payroll. The opportunity is present for the Twins to put together a hell of a team for 2021 if it were.

[mike8791]

The Twins went "all in" in 2020.  We fans are grateful, but want more in 2021.  Arguably, shutdown arms for the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings becomes more important in the playoffs, but also because of Baldy's tendency to pull his starters early.  My take is now the Twins have one shutdown guy - Duffy.  To rely on a comeback by Rogers is a huge risk.  Let him go or sign him for less-than-closer money.

 

If the FO wants to go all in again next year, spend the money on two of the top tier candidates.  Do not resign May and his all- too- worrying tendency for the deadly HR ball.  As many have said, dump Rosario; Kirillof should fill in nicely.  Spending big bucks on a utility IF or OF is a fool's errand.  Let the prospects duke it out(Lewis deserves a shot now).  And yes, sign Cruz for one year, not two.

 

The top three starters are as solid as we've seen in ages.  Fill out the rotation with Odo, Hill, and a couple of long shot FAs. As has been the case for ages, there simply is no prospect currently who can be expected to step up and fill a starter position on a club with championship aspirations.   If it takes a budget of $130MM to take a step forward, so what.  The window is wide open now, but in a couple years could be closing.  Shoring up the pen is the highest priority!

[tony&rodney]

I'm in on a couple of relievers. The Twins need to look hard at Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal, and others. Why not? These players will make the team better and that is all i want Twins management to consider. The window for this core is here now and I wonder, how can the brain trust make that happen in 2021?

[jmlease1]

I think the only way someone like Hand is on the table is if the Twins cut Rogers loose into the pool.

 

I'm also refusing to get on the "we need a proven closer" bit: closer is and almost always has been highly overrated. I want good relievers who can be firemen. I want guys who don't need to be in highly structured roles to be effective. And I definitely don't want to pay a ton of money to guy who can only be used in the 9th inning with a clean sheet.

 

There's quite a few good relievers out there, but I would bring back Clippard and May unless someone tosses stupid money that them. And in this environment...who is making that play?

[tony&rodney]

I like May and Clippard, but we would almost certainly see statistical improvement from having Hendriks and Hand on our roster. Still, a return of Clippard and May sounds acceptable, sure.

[tony&rodney]

We all seem to agree that the uncertainty of the schedule will affect the bottom line. For sure there will need to be some sort of negotiated agreement between MLB and MLBPA. If not, all of our thoughts are out the door. The key will be how the owner approach the players. Other leagues manage to meet percentage-based agreements. Why not baseball?

In the spirit of positive negotiations and an expected pent-up demand next summer for baseball, my hoped for budget for the Twins is in the $130-140 million range. This number will be lowered through shared loss agreements involving both players and owners if the Covid barriers remain high. If restrictions are lifted by June, then summer baseball will be a cash bonanza. My best guess is that contracts will contain some language related to opportunity to earn based on attendance possibilities and games scheduled.

I totally agree with the need to carefully construct a solid bullpen. The pen was pretty strong last year and a strong pen is necessary again in 2021.

[RaoulDuke]

I want the Twins to spend to bring the pen up to par with other playoff teams.  Spin and milking veterans is great roster building but they need some guys that can dominate.

 

Hendriks/ Hand/ Yates are all back end improvements that can be bought, get at least one.

 

Rosenthal, Giles, Workman, Green are all potentially setup caliber guys.

 

Closer/ ace

Duffey

Setup 2

Rodgers

Alcala

Stashak

Thielbar

 

 

 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

We all seem to agree that the uncertainty of the schedule will affect the bottom line. For sure there will need to be some sort of negotiated agreement between MLB and MLBPA. If not, all of our thoughts are out the door. The key will be how the owner approach the players. Other leagues manage to meet percentage-based agreements. Why not baseball?

In the spirit of positive negotiations and an expected pent-up demand next summer for baseball, my hoped for budget for the Twins is in the $130-140 million range. This number will be lowered through shared loss agreements involving both players and owners if the Covid barriers remain high. If restrictions are lifted by June, then summer baseball will be a cash bonanza. My best guess is that contracts will contain some language related to opportunity to earn based on attendance possibilities and games scheduled.

I totally agree with the need to carefully construct a solid bullpen. The pen was pretty strong last year and a strong pen is necessary again in 2021.

 

It sounds like you (and others) are hoping the Twins will make a leap of faith the revenue will be normal or close to normal. This hope begins with players agreeing to take reduced compensation. This assumes a willingness on the player’s part to accept less than 100% of normal compensation.  Not only did the players Association refuse to do this after agreeing it would be necessary, they went so far as to see they did not see the need. It is very difficult to believe the player’s would accept reductions that reflect revenue losses when they have already refused to do so and when they can’t understand the need in the wake of 40%+ revenue reduction.

 

Free Agency has already begun. Is the entire league going to wait and see if a deal is struck? If such a deal were going to be negotiated, owners and the Player’s Association would have been working on an agreement before the season ever ended or worst case when the World Series concluded. Is it going on in secret? I seriously doubt it.

 

Even if we have a full season and 50% of gate related revenues, the loss in revenue for the Twins would be roughly $60M. It's probably not going to be a full season. Even if we have a 130 game season, that would add losses approximately equal to 20% of fixed operating expense. For the Twins that's another roughly $15M. So, these projections with spending going down $10-15M have no basis in reason.

[tony&rodney]

Speaking solely for myself-I'm just a baseball fan. There may well be significant obstacles that present themselves next Spring, but for now I'm a hopeless optimist making that leap of faith. The only reasoning behind any of my simple suggestions is towards improving the Twins roster. Additionally, I do believe that management can see some potential in reaching high. One year ago, nearly everyone protested any consideration of Josh Donaldson. The Twins signed JD. Then Covid happened to mess up the entire year. As this year draws to a close there is a distinct possibility of next summer being a good one for baseball fans and owners. The Twins have bank, as much as any team, and their careful negotiations over the years have placed them in a positive position to act aggressively this winter. The money is there and we get to speculate whether the purse will be tightened or loosened. Baseball keeps their books totally private and all attempts by bloggers to assign values are mere guesses. The formula for making money remains producing a product that many will want to consume. There are bound to be a few owners who see the pent-up demand for baseball next summer as an opportunity. I'm hoping one of those owners is a Pohlad.