6 get qualifying offer

[Trov]

Six MLB players got qualifying offer.  Who, if any will sign them?  

Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, DJ LeMahieu, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto are the six.  It is worth 18.9 million.

 

Personally, I think four should think about it.  Stroman, Gausman, LeMahieu, and Springer.  Bauer is an interesting case as well.  Reason I say the four should think about it is because teams are cutting so much cost, and uncertain how next CBA will pan out, some teams will be less likely to give up picks and so much cash to bring them in, with a possible lost season from pending work stoppage.  I have little faith they will work it out without losing at least some a season. They all are worth players to look at in normal offseason, but there is nothing normal about this offseason.  So many guys are getting non-tendered, and options not picked up the pool will be huge, and teams will be bargain shopping.  

 

Bauer, I said long ago will be interesting because of his desire to sign only 1 year deals.  With the QO being put down, will any team give up long term asset of a draft pick for a 1 year rental?  I think only teams that will are high payroll teams that can fill in lost long term cost controlled assets like that.  That being said, how many will bid against themselves?  I think he should, and will turn it down, and most likely get bigger 1 year deal from a team like Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, or some other team always looking to add big name FA.  It will be interesting to see how things shake out for him though.

 

Realmuto, is good catcher that are always in high demand and teams will be willing to spend on him regardless of how the COVID spending is going.  In normal year, all six should and would turn it down, but this year I feel different with the trends of cost cutting teams have been doing.  What do you think? 

[Shaitan]

It's a good year to get the QO offer, as there will be more 1 year deals than normal anyway and player's are then free from the tag for the rest of their careers (assuming the CBA doesn't change).

[High heat]

I kind of feel like all 6 should take it.  but im guessing Stroman and Gausman take the deal and the other 4 test free agency.  Going to be interesting off season with the CBA ending in 2021 and all the financial uncertainty.  I don't think big pay days like we have seen are going to be handed out. 

[lecroy24fan]

 

 

 

Bauer, I said long ago will be interesting because of his desire to sign only 1 year deals.  With the QO being put down, will any team give up long term asset of a draft pick for a 1 year rental?  I think only teams that will are high payroll teams that can fill in lost long term cost controlled assets like that.  That being said, how many will bid against themselves?  I think he should, and will turn it down, and most likely get bigger 1 year deal from a team like Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, or some other team always looking to add big name FA.  It will be interesting to see how things shake out for him though.

 

 

 

Bauer has backed off from only taking one year deals.

[Trov]

 

Bauer has backed off from only taking one year deals.

I had not seen that, and I think for him that is a smart idea.  If he really wants to max his earning he should seek about as long of a deal he can get, unless he really wants to bet on himself being good and health late into his career.  Many players that sign very long term deals out earn what they would be worth late in that deal, and very rarely under earn early in deal.  

[Trov]

 

It's a good year to get the QO offer, as there will be more 1 year deals than normal anyway and player's are then free from the tag for the rest of their careers (assuming the CBA doesn't change).

I think the CBA will see huge changes.  The QO being one of them.  When it first went in every one turned it down and many players that should have accepted it, turned it down.  Then when teams were not willing to give up the picks players really were against it.  They got the small change to take away the loss of a first round pick, which helped, but still players hate it.  I think they liked it at first, because it was the starting point to talks, but eventually it became a hinderance for other teams, and they looked at not just loss of money but the pick.  The FO got much more big picture thinking and not tunnel vision like old school guys.  

[Trov]

 

I kind of feel like all 6 should take it.  but im guessing Stroman and Gausman take the deal and the other 4 test free agency.  Going to be interesting off season with the CBA ending in 2021 and all the financial uncertainty.  I don't think big pay days like we have seen are going to be handed out. 

It may depend on what length contract they are looking for.  There is no way anyone will get an equal 1 year offer elsewhere.  So if they are looking 3 to 5 years for less per year than the 18.9 all of them may get that.  I agree all should consider taking it this year, but I have argued for years more players should accept than have. 

[Shaitan]

 

I think the CBA will see huge changes.  The QO being one of them.  When it first went in every one turned it down and many players that should have accepted it, turned it down.  Then when teams were not willing to give up the picks players really were against it.  They got the small change to take away the loss of a first round pick, which helped, but still players hate it.  I think they liked it at first, because it was the starting point to talks, but eventually it became a hinderance for other teams, and they looked at not just loss of money but the pick.  The FO got much more big picture thinking and not tunnel vision like old school guys.  

Yeah, I expect more limitations on the QO in the new CBA. Perhaps a set # can be offered or something like that. Smaller market teams still need some kind of compensation in return, but it's not working as planned.

 

But it's also going to be a super weird year for negotiations.

[Shaitan]

 

It may depend on what length contract they are looking for.  There is no way anyone will get an equal 1 year offer elsewhere.  So if they are looking 3 to 5 years for less per year than the 18.9 all of them may get that.  I agree all should consider taking it this year, but I have argued for years more players should accept than have. 

Pitchers should always grab the long-term deal when it's available, due to both volatility and injury risk at the position.

[nicksaviking]

If no one was willing to pay Brad Hand 10M for one year, I think most of these guys are going to be in for some heartbreak. Most will surely get more money in multi year deals, but I'm guessing only one or two of them will get an AAV anywhere close to the 18.9M QO amount. I think Gausman and Stroman in particular would be foolish not to accept and hope the MLB economy rebounds in the 2022 off season.

 

My guess is teams are going to be just as weary about the number of years as they are the dollar amount as well. So while some of these guys maybe thinking 5 years at 15M per is better than the QO, they should consider the worst case scenario and not be shocked if it ends up closer to 2 years at 12M per.

[Vanimal46]

Like Nick, I think Stroman and Gausman should easily accept the QO. The others should decline it. Bauer is the top SP in the market, and will get either a higher AAV for one year or a worthwhile multi-year deal. Springer and Realmuto are the top position players available at premium positions. Both will be recession/pandemic proof and should get 5+ year offers. 

[mikelink45]

This is a year to grab certainty and the QO looks damn good to me.  And if you exceed it in money and dollars for any of them the chance of regret gets really high.  I believe all the long term contracts have regret years built in - like Donaldson, who unfortunately started with a regret year.

[Trov]

 

Yeah, I expect more limitations on the QO in the new CBA. Perhaps a set # can be offered or something like that. Smaller market teams still need some kind of compensation in return, but it's not working as planned.

 

But it's also going to be a super weird year for negotiations.

I think they could go back to a hybrid of what they did before QO.  I know teams did not like the A or B lvl FA as it was out of their control for where their FA fell.  However, it never prevented any signings because the pick was added in Comp rounds instead of taken from signing team.  

 

I really do not know the best solution, and agree small market teams need a chance to retain players or get something in return.  I mean in old system letting Cuddy go got us Berrios.  Maybe there can be different level of QO, like 1 year, 2 year, or 3 year.  If offered 3 year, and they are signed away you get so many comp round picks, and less for each less year.  This allows the team losing the player to set the value they believe, but also the team signing does not lose anything because they are comp picks.  It is better than nothing.  Also, based on recent FA deals some players may take the 3 year and then enter FA a little older, but that is another issue teams are having with players and length of contracts. 

[Trov]

 

Pitchers should always grab the long-term deal when it's available, due to both volatility and injury risk at the position.

I fully agree.  So many long term pitchers always have dead money years, heck Twins have even signed players to dead money for the second year of a deal.