How Low Can We Go?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins struggled to field a full five-man rotation for much of 2020 due to injury and have even fewer options headed into 2021. Lucky for us, more and more pitchers seem to become available by the day. It may be time to take a look at some of the rebound arms the Twins could take fliers on this offseason.Robbie Ray

Based on 2020 alone, Ray may be about the lowest any team could buy on. Ray has always struggled with walks (4.28 BB/9 in his career) and entered 2020 with a new delivery to try and curb his strike throwing issues. Well his 7.84 BB/9 as well as 6.62 ERA and 6.50 FIP in 2020 may suggest it didn’t work out. He was at least not a full on disaster in the second half with 4.74 ERA and 5.06 FIP.

 

So why would the Twins want Ray considering his best of 2020 was still pretty mediocre? Ray is super talented and has shown it for long periods throughout his career. His career 4.26 ERA includes seasons like his 2017 where he completed 162 innings with a 2.98 ERA. He has a career 28.6% K rate which is pretty darn good for a starting pitcher. Many have suggested he has ace-like stuff and it’s often been floated that he’s a small tweak away from fully unlocking it. While a long shot given what we saw in 2020, the Twins may find it worth the time and price tag to take a shot on returning the talented 29 year old Robbie Ray to at least a quality starting pitcher.

 

Mike Leake

Mike Leake is a stretch when it comes to the “buy low” label. Leake opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic and as a result has become a bit of a forgotten man. There’s no trick the Twins can pull to make Leake a more impressive pitcher. What you see is what you get.

 

Leake’s pitching style is that of the early 2000s. He barely strikes out hitters (career 5.80K/9) and keeps his walks to a minimum (1.98 BB/9). He’s also avoided home runs and has been a gold glove caliber pitcher for much of his career. What makes Leake more valuable is his health and durability, averaging over 180 innings per season across his 10-year career. While the Twins may not be able to plan on Leake being quite the same innings eater he was after a year off, I’d bet he can still provide a solid floor. Don’t be surprised if the Twins see a cheap opportunity to pencil in a reliable starting pitcher that many teams have forgotten about after a lost 2020.

 

Chris Archer

I advocated for the Twins to trade for Archer around this time last year and got royally burned. It’s time for round two. Archer was downright bad for Pittsburgh after infamously getting traded for Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows. 2020 was the worst year of his career with a 5.19 ERA before going down with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. As we’ve seen previously with Phil Hughes, this can be a tough injury to return from.

 

That being said, Archer should be on track to be at full strength in 2021 and has fantastic pedigree. He could be toast considering it’s been years since his numbers have reflected his talent. I feel strongly however that the Pirates pitching coaches were to blame for Archer’s dropoff after he reduced the usage on his slider which was the pitch responsible for his success early in his career. The combination of Archer’s 2020 performance as well as injury should not only get him bought out of his $11m contract with the Pirates, but should make him a reasonably cheap gamble to take. The Twins may not be able to return Archer to his low 3s ERA days, but they may be able to find some value left in the 32 year old’s arm.

 

Are they the most exciting names? Certainly not, but the Twins front office is always looking for value on their returns. This offseason Falvey and company will likely be craftier than ever in their pickups as they try to minimize spending on a free agent pool that may be as full as ever. Did any of these buy lows send you into a full on rage? Are there any other buy low starting pitchers you’d like the Twins to look at? Let us know below.

 

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[Doctor Gast]

Love your article, like you said Robby Ray has his control problems yet he could be a tweak away from being an ace because he has the stuff. I`m in the same camp about Chris Archer, felt so   sorry for him when he was stranded in PIT. He has  great untapped talent that went to waste  & went down hill from there. He is hated in PIT & will be released today. Because of stats & the corrective surgery he had this summer. IMO  will be dirt cheap. I`d be tremendously happy if he  find himself, fulfilling his full potential as a Twin. Both of them could top off our pitching staff

[mikelink45]

Love your article and I do not want to sign any of them.  Thanks for the work.

[jrod23]

Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Dobnak, ?.  I'd gamble on Robbie Ray simply because I want to see what Wes Johnson could do with him.  Same for Archer.  I like Wes Johnson and hope he retires as the Twins pitching coach in 2035.

[old nurse]

The Twins as well as every other club looks for a bargain. Any of them on a minor league contract with an invite would be such the deal that the Twins should look for.  Actually improving the club should be the goal

[Trov]

I would be willing to take a pass on Ray and Archer for the right price.  I do not like Leake.  For Ray, if you can get him some control he can be valuable, but I would not invest too heavy in him.  For Archer, if you can get for a low amount thinking you can get him back with his slider I am all for it.  Twins love the slider usage right now and if that was Archer's best pitch maybe they will get him back to it.  

 

Again, I would not bring in either saying they will be set as a starter, but sign to MLB deal at low value with incentive based output to increase value on a make good deal.  

[Doctor Gast]

Archer is in the the top 50 free agents. Twins love sliders & Archer was great w/ it at TB where was allowed to use it. I agree w/ Trov to offer a low salary w/ a lot of production base incentives, to cover ourselves if his full recovery is delayed. There has been some rumors w/ different teams including TB.  The Twins should pursue this opportunity because he has a lot of upside, there`s no limit w/ what Wes Johnson can do w/ him because he is motivated. We shouldn`t look at his stats from PIT, it wasn`t his fault that PIT forced him to abandon his slider to throw sinkers. The difference between PIT pitching staff   to MN, is like night & day,   a low salary would free up $ to     go after a higher priced FA.