The Twins Should Try to Net A Marlin

[Cody Pirkl]

Rumor has it the Twins engaged in trade talks with the Marlins during last year’s winter meetings during the famous Eddie Rosario talks. Almost a year later, the Marlins have shelled out several pieces of their young rotation but still have plenty of overflow. The Twins may very well look to engage in trade talks once again this winter.After trading Zac Gallen and Caleb Smith to Arizona last year, you’d think the young up and coming Marlins would have taken a hit to their rotation depth. The Marlins however have spent the last few years accumulating young talent that appears to be finally emerging all at once. They’ve fielded a competitive 1-5 in their rotation for a few years now, but currently might have a few too many arms at their disposal to not look to cash in on one or two for help elsewhere. For that reason it may be worth considering a few trade options for the Twins.

(Note: Sandy Alcántara and Sixto Sanchez are strategically not mentioned. Keep dreaming Twins fans)

 

Pablo López

PabLo had a breakout year in 2020 pitching to a 3.61 ERA and 3.09 FIP. He rode a nasty changeup to a 24.6 K rate and managed a .63 HR/9. PabLo has a bit of an injury history but has a few years of moderate success under his belt and is still just 24 years old. Miami would likely look for an impactful return of either MLB or near MLB talent for their assumed number 3 starter.

 

Elieser Hernandez

Hernandez full on broke out in 2020 in surprising fashion, managing a 3.16 ERA and 3.89 FIP and 32.1% K rate before succumbing to an oblique strain after 25.1 innings. If he’s anywhere near what he showed in 2019, the Marlins may have one of baseball’s best #4 starters. The Twins had already been linked to Hernandez last winter so there may be something here that Wes Johnson and company are fond of (possibly the near 40% whiff rate on his slider). Given his shorter track record of success, Hernandez may be a bit more attainable than the above arms even though he’s still just 25 years old.

 

José Ureña

Ureña is likely best known for plunking Ronald Acuña a few years back but has been a mostly serviceable pitcher at the back end of the rotation for a few years before a miserable 2020. Ureña has a 3 pitch mix headlined by a mid 90s fastball that makes you wonder if the Twins could unlock a few more strikeouts (15.9% K rate in his career). He’s due $4m in 2021 and may be seen as an unnecessary arm in competition for a rotation spot. For that reason the Twins should be able to obtain the 29 year old for cheap if they identify an adjustment they could possibly make.

 

Trevor Rogers/Braxton Garrett

These two are grouped together because both are left handed former 1st round picks that the Marlins brought up straight out of AA in the shortened 2020 season. The Marlins surely think highly of these two to take the leap of faith in calling them up. That being said, the mix of depth they have in their rotation and their willingness to trade promising young starting pitching in the past suggests they may not be off the table. Their Major League success is irrelevant at this point, as Garrett threw only 7.2 innings and Rogers 28, but don’t put it past the Twins to check in if they see a young controllable starting pitcher they could mould.

 

Bonus: Jordan Yamamoto

I’m not going to lie to you, the 24 year old righty had an 18.26 ERA and 11.93 FIP last season. It was bad, like possibly “get this man out of Miami” bad. In 2019 he actually managed a 4.46 ERA and 4.51 FIP though and he had 3 pitches with a whiff rate over 27.5%. There’s clearly some talent in there and his cost may never be lower. Such a young starter with any Major League success will never come free, but the Twins could look to cash in for as cheap as can be.

 

The fun thing about the Marlins is they’ve shown a history of unpredictability in trading their young arms. At this point that’s about all they have, so there’s not an obvious candidate aside from Ureña that they may actually be looking to trade. The Twins missed out on Zac Gallen in 2019 when that surprising trade was made. I think they should be checking in with Miami this winter and exploring all options to make sure they don’t miss out on another young controllable pitcher being shipped out.

 

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[Doctor Gast]

It seems that the Marlins have an eye on pitching talent. Now that they are competitive they probably  would be willing to give up a young arm to fill holes in their line up. If Wes is confident & if we can get a good deal w/ a trade we can live with, I say go for it. By the way, like your title

[TopGunn#22]

Great Title !!  I would trade Eddie for Hernandez (but I'd be willing to take any of the guys you mentioned).  Eddie would give the Marlins a solid bat in LF or RF.  The Marlins proved they are a young team on the rise and a solid major league hitter like Eddie may be just the thing they need.  But the Twins should never have let Zac Gallon get away to Arizona, they need to add a young Marlin arm in a Rosario deal that allows Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach significant AB's.  

[Linus]

Great Title !! I would trade Eddie for Hernandez (but I'd be willing to take any of the guys you mentioned). Eddie would give the Marlins a solid bat in LF or RF. The Marlins proved they are a young team on the rise and a solid major league hitter like Eddie may be just the thing they need. But the Twins should never have let Zac Gallon get away to Arizona, they need to add a young Marlin arm in a Rosario deal that allows Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach significant AB's.

Miami would laugh at Rosario for any of them. He has no excess trade value and is likely to be non tendered.

[PDX Twin]

I vote for Trevor Rogers to join Taylor Rogers and, for good measure, acquiring Taylor's brother Tyler Rogers. This would give us the most confusing bullpen in baseball history! Would they put first names on their jerseys?

[Seansy]

Lopez and Hernandez don't seem like good targets unless you're willing to give up alot because they have 4 years of team control left AND broke out this year.

 

Since Urena only has 1 year of arb left and Yamamoto has multiple years of team control but was awful last year and neither figures into their rotation plans for 2021 both of these players would be better targets for the Twins imo.

 

Rosie + a C prospect for Urena is a solid opening offer if Rosie for Jon Gray doesn't happen.

 

I'm not sure what the Marlins would want for Yamamoto but if his last option was used in 2020 (per FG) he could be a good option as a cheap 5th starter if they think they can improve his mechanics/pitch mix since the Marlins can't stash him in the minors.

[DocBauer]

Now I like these trade ideas more than others presented thus far. Youth and upside for the long haul. However, it could make them more expensive prospect-wise in a trade. And that's where you have to look at your own internal talent and speculate when and how good, how much prospect capital will it take to acquire a veteran trade target or young trade target while balancing the payroll and just spending $ on someone for the time being.

 

In short, keep Odorizzi or sign Stroman and hold on to your young talent to start filling in various spots over the next season or two and have future trade options.

 

But if we're going to trade young talent I'd like to acquire young talent back.

[Finlander]

You can bet there will be many more suitors for Marlins pitching deals. But I like the potential matchups with Rowson being down in Miami to advocate for certain MN hitters in a deal. So Miami should have more comfort level negotiating with us. Given that, we may be asked to give up Kepler or Polanco or Garver, rather than Rosie, in a deal.

[Trov]

If the Twins can get anything for Eddie you take it.  He will not be tendered and every team knows it.  They can try to win any FA bidding, or they can give up a prospect and then pay the arbration bill.  My guess they will just wait for a non-tender and look to sign for less than that what he would get in arbration.

[ashbury]

You can bet there will be many more suitors for Marlins pitching deals. But I like the potential matchups with Rowson being down in Miami to advocate for certain MN hitters in a deal.

 

Rowson is a candidate to manage Boston, FWIW.