Twins Could Target the Other Free Agent Starting Pitcher

[Ted Schwerzler]

This offseason will be all about Trevor Bauer just like last was about Gerrit Cole. That’s deserved and warranted given his abilities, and the likelihood he’s coming off an NL Cy Young. As much as I’d love to see him in baby blue, another big name might make more sense for the Twins. Enter Marcus Stroman.The former Blue Jays starter didn’t pitch in 2020, and he used some shrewd maneuvering to benefit himself for 2021. Despite a calf tear during Summer Camp, Stroman had ramped up nearly to the point of return for the New York Mets. Having accumulated just enough time to be eligible for free agency in the upcoming offseason, he opted out of the season citing a “collective family decision.” I’m not at all here to question his motives, but good on him for putting his own situation first in a sport that saw owners look to exploit the talent over and over prior to resumption.

 

On the field there’s plenty to unpack with Stroman. He’ll turn 30 in the year ahead and has made a single All-Star Game while generating Cy Young votes just once. He has compiled a career 3.76 ERA and 2019 was arguably his best season as a big leaguer. When healthy Stroman has been an innings eater, and while his career K/9 is just 7.4, he also doesn’t get bit by the long ball or free passes.

 

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What Stroman brings to the table is a very consistent approach. He doesn’t own a big fastball, and the average velocity hovers around 94 mph. His whiff rates have always been right around 9% and he forces the opposition to chase just under one-third of the time. What you’re going to get is very few barreled balls and a ton of ground ball outs.

 

The book on Stroman has read virtually the same for the entirety of his career and it’s why the deal to the Mets made little sense a year ago. New York employed arguably the worst infield in baseball, and predictably Stroman was worse off. He went from a 2.96 ERA and 3.51 FIP with Toronto in 2019 to a 3.77 ERA and 4.15 FIP in the Big Apple. Making sure a pitcher like Marcus is backed by sure handed infielders is imperative.

 

Enter the Minnesota Twins and what 2020 saw them do. Josh Donaldson is a massive upgrade defensively at the hot corner, obviously he needs to remain available there. While Jorge Polanco struggled mightily at the plate, he performed adequately in the field. Luis Arraez was better at second base, and Miguel Sano looks entirely passable at first. In totality the Twins were 10th in baseball in defensive fWAR and 3rd when it came to infield outs above average. The entire aforementioned group will be back, and it’s one capable of supporting a ground ball heavy pitcher.

 

These aren’t the same Twins instructing arms to generate soft contact and allow batters to put the ball on the ground. That said, being able to do so at a high level as Stroman is, allows Wes Johnson an ability to pull more from the rest of his game. It’s hard to imagine a massive overhaul at age-30, but considering his prime, a velocity and strikeout boost even in a slight manner could have Stroman experiencing new heights.

 

2020 saw Stroman awarded a prorated portion of $12 million through arbitration. His 2019 deal checked in at $7.4 million. He’s going to want a long-term deal, and there’s no denying he’s going to get paid. I’d imagine he’ll be more affordable than Bauer however, and that could make the Twins a serious player for his services.

 

By all accounts it appears that Stroman has been a good clubhouse guy and someone you’d want to have on your team. He’s worn blue previously, knows the northern weather well, and could be Minnesota’s 2021 version of Kenta Maeda. I’m on board with this acquisition, and you’d be hard pressed to make an argument for their not being a fit.

 

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[Otwins]

Not a fan of Stroman. Not enough strikeouts. I feel he will get overpaid. You sure he is a good clubhouse guy.  Looks to me like he quit on the Mets this year. 

[DocBauer]

The rub remains the same. The Twins need a quality 3/4 SP to team with Pineda. While the FO may find another Odorizzi steal or quality Maeda deal to add to the rotation, is it the best move? We gave up a great young BP arm for Maeda but it appears to have been a great move, especially considering cost control. But quality SP with cost control usually comes with a price. Got a little lucky with Maeda. Most of the time, you are giving up a couple top 20 prospects to do so. Are the Twins willing to do that right now with a wide open window and an influx of talent on the way to keep that window open? Especially with weird and unknown financial implications? Would you be willing to trade Larnach/Rooker and Enlow/Sands/Colina as a package for a quality 3/4 SP with control and hopeful upside?

 

Or maybe payroll decisions would allow a FA and keep all the other options in place for promotion. Didn't we already see the FO is ready and willing to promote from within?

 

Stroman makes TONS of sense for the Twins as a viable and possibly affordable option. And he's been tied to the Twins more than once over the past couple of seasons. But is he the right choice?

 

Odorzzi...and I'm sorry I sound like a broken record...is only 1yr older. His QO in 2020 is something Stoman didn't fit. But it allowed Jake to almost double his 2019 salary. (I'm ignoring pro-rats for both guys). But as quality as Oddo is, despite his 2019 season, he was never going to get $25M+ that Wheeler got. I doubt, IMO, he would have received $20M. He got, at least close, to what he might have received if he chose the FA route.

 

Right now, the playing field for these two is about equal. Look up their career numbers, 1yr different in age. If you believe in WAR, Stoman has the advantage, 14.7 to 12.4. Without going deep in to analytical numbers, Stroman has a slightly better career ERA, but lags slightly behind in WHIP AND BB/SO ratio with Odorizzi a bit over a SO per over Stoman. Stoman has averaged about 1/3 more IP per appearance, which is pretty negligible. So Stoman is an innings eater? Nope.

 

Each of these guys are quality and each of them has warranted an All Star appearance, FWIW. Their career numbers are virtual mirrors of one another, with Odorizzi having a better WHIP and SO numbers. Oddo is also a known quantity within the system.

 

I like Stoman. I'd be happy to have him. Injury to a torn calf vs a stiff back...even if it happened before 3yrs ago...I think I'd take the stiff back. And I absolutely believe these two are on equal footing when it comes to the crazy FA we will see. I'd take the known quantity of Odorizzi at this point.

[Doctor Gast]

I appreciate the effort of presenting Stoman as a possibility. I`m not excited about him, I say we pass on him. I don`t think he`d be worth it

[Trov]

I am not sold on Stoman, unless it is on low risk deal.  I agree he will be looking long term, but teams are less likely to do that with current environment and upcoming CBA changing.  What scares me is when he faces teams that know how to hit grounders to holes in the field.  See what happened against the Astros in playoffs.  A few of them knew exactly how to hit a weak ground ball through the giant hole the Twins gave them.  

 

I am not going to get into the shift debate, but it does not matter how weak you hit a ground ball if you can it through the 90 holes sometimes the Twins give hitters.  So that may take away Stoman's best attribute right there.  

[twinfan]

Stroman has always been highly touted but has never lived up to it. He can be a good pitcher if healthy but we should not overpay for him. If we can get him for 7-8 million per year for 3 years and he is healthy, I'd be ok with that. However, it is a gamble.

[chinmusic]

"By all accounts it appears that Stroman has been a good clubhouse guy and someone you’d want to have on your team."

 

Quoting from the article, I'm not so sure about that. As a Torontonian, I'm familiar with "The Stro Show", and the nickname says it all. Frankly, Marcus Stroman is a shameless self promoter. After awhile, the schtick wears thin. I wasn't sorry to see him leave the Jays, and I'm not even a fan of the team.

 

Realize I haven't even touched on his value as a pitcher, and want to stress that this is   MY opinion. Just wanted to throw it out there. I hope the Twins take a pass.

[Battle ur tail off]

2 year deal and I'm in. I wouldn't overpay for this guy though. 

 

Hand it off to one of your young guys if he wants a 4 year deal or something. To be honest, I think with the Covid stuff still hanging over their heads and the losses incurred this past season, a 4-year deal to an average pitcher just isn't going to happen IMO.

 

Offer he and Odo the same deal and let them know whoever takes it first, that is who will be the Twins #3 starter.

 

 

[Twinsfan#2]

To me Stroman is Jose Berrios’ floor. If we’re all comfy with a mediocre start by Berrios, let’s get Stroman. Doesn’t seem like a bad move, but can’t go over 10-12M a year.