Should These Twins Free Agents Stay or Go?

[Nick Nelson]

The Minnesota Twins may be looking ahead to major turnover this offseason, with nearly a third of their 2020 roster hitting the open market.

 

Which pending free agents should the team make efforts to bring back? Which ones should be on their way? Offseason Live breaks it down.On Thursday night's episode of Offseason Live, I chatted with fellow Twins Daily writers Matthew Taylor and David Youngs about the players hitting free agency this winter. The Twins are facing the prospect of losing eight players to the market, or possibly nine, depending on what they decide to do with Sergio Romo's team option.

 

You can watch the episode below, or scroll down for a quick overview of the nine players in question, their situations, and a key stat to keep in mind for each.

 

Feel free to share your opinions on who should stay or go in the comments.

 

 

Sergio Romo, RP

2020 Stats: 20 IP, 4.05 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

 

The Situation: The Twins traded for Romo at the 2019 deadline as a pending free agent, and then brought him back last winter on a one-year deal with a $5 million option for 2021. Activating that option seemed like a no-brainer midway through the season, as he was dominating with his slider and siphoning save opportunities from Taylor Rogers, but Romo faltered down the stretch and in the playoffs. He turns 38 in March, and $5 million is a pretty penny for a relief pitcher if you don't think he'll be a major asset. Declining Romo's option would give the Twins more flexibility to try and retain the following players.

 

Key Stat: 1.03 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 in 51 appearances with Twins

Alex Avila, C

2020 Stats: 62 PA, .184/.355/.286, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0.2 fWAR

 

The Situation: The Twins tabbed Avila as Mitch Garver's backup last offseason, signing him to a one-year deal worth $4.75 million. The veteran ended up playing a fairly minor role for the Twins, accruing only 30% of PAs among catchers, and he didn't hit a lick. That said, he was reliable defensively and his .355 OBP tied for fourth-best on the team (50+ PA). If the Twins want to carry three catchers in 2021, they could do a lot worse than bringing Avila back on a cheap one-year deal.

 

Key Stat: Started 19 of 63 games (including playoffs) for Twins and batted .184

Ehire Adrianza, UTIL

2020 Stats: 101 PA, .191/.287/.270, 0 HR, 3 RBI, -0.1 fWAR

 

The Situation: Adrianza heads into free agency for the first time with a thud. He seemed to be shaking his rep as a no-hit utilityman over three seasons in Minnesota, posting a respectable .260/.321/.391 slash line from 2017 through 2019 and enjoying a career year in the latter (.765 OPS). But Adrianza fell apart at the plate in a 2020 season where he appeared in 44 of the team's 60 games. The 31-year-old may struggle to find a major-league league deal, though his ability to play a quality shortstop is a differentiating strength.

 

Key Stat: Career-low .557 OPS in 2020

Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL

2020 Stats: 199 PA, .211/.286/.320, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 0.2 fWAR

 

The Situation: Playing out the last year of his two-year, $21 million contract with the Twins, Gonzalez was an all-out disaster in 2020. Injuries forced the team to lean on him heavily – he started 51 of 60 games, and ranked fifth on the team in PAs – but he let them down in a big way, grading as one of the worst regulars in all of baseball. He turns 32 in March, has seen his OPS+ drop in three consecutive seasons, and his athleticism is rapidly declining (his sprint speed has fallen from the 39th to 27th to 20th percentile). Add in the taint of involvement with the cheating Astros, and it seems very unlikely Gonzalez will have a remotely welcoming offseason market.

 

Key Stat: Ranked 137th out of 142 qualified MLB players in OPS in 2020

Tyler Clippard, RP

2020 Stats: 26 IP, 2.77 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 1.4 BB/9

 

The Situation: Signed to a $2.75 million deal last offseason, Clippard was an unheralded hero of the Twins bullpen. He led all relievers in innings, started two games as opener, finished another, and was altogether an incredibly versatile and reliable arm. Minnesota signed him to be a weapon against lefties, and he was, but he also shut down right-handed hitters. Given the valuable role he played on this year's club, Clippard would seemingly be very appealing to the Twins (and other teams) on a similar contract.

 

Key Stat: Held LH batters to .213 average (.479 OPS) in 2020. Held RH batters to .191 average (.607 OPS).

Trevor May, RP

2020 Stats: 23.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 14.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

 

The Situation: In his career as a reliever, May has averaged 12.0 K/9 with a 3.49 ERA over 188 ⅓ innings. He's one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league, and in 2019 he set new personal records for strikeout rate, whiff rate, and fastball velocity. His proneness to home runs (five allowed in 23 ⅓ frames) was the lone blemish on a remarkably dominant season out of the bullpen. A top-tier power arm hitting his stride just as he hits free agency at 31, May is likely to be in high demand. Can the Twins afford to keep him around? ... Can they afford not to?

 

Key Stat: His career 10.5 K/9 rate is 2nd-highest in Twins history (min. 300 IP), behind Joe Nathan

Rich Hill, SP

2020 Stats: 38.2 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 4.0 BB/9

 

The Situation: At times, it looked like Hill might not have it anymore. The Twins knew they were gambling on the left-hander, who signed an incentive-laden one-year contract coming off elbow surgery at age 40. He had his rough patches. His control worsened, his strikeout and whiff rates plummeted, and at one point his shoulder acted up. But by the time September rolled around, Hill had rounded into form, looking every bit like the gritty difference-maker of repute. Whether he can do it again, at age 41 in what figures to be a more full-length season, is very much an open question.

 

Key Stat: In 4 September starts, posted 2.38 ERA and .190 BAA

Jake Odorizzi, SP

2020 Stats: 13.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 6.12 FIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9

 

The Situation: Returning to the Twins after accepting a qualifying offer for $17.8 million a year ago, the 2020 season was a complete wash for Odorizzi. He opened on the Injured List, and saw two attempted comebacks stymied by misfortune: first, a line drive to the ribs, and then a bloody blister opened on his finger. His ability and talent have been plain to see when healthy, but it's going to be hard for Odorizzi to command what he probably deserves coming off a lost season. If the Twins can find a sensible way to bring him back, he'd be a hell of a fourth starter.

 

Key Stat: Holds lowest overall FIP (3.88) of any Twins SP since 2011

Nelson Cruz, DH

2020 Stats: 214 PA, .303/.397/.595, 16 HR, 33 RBI, 2.0 fWAR

 

The Situation: He's been the Twins' best hitter for two years running, and one of the most feared hitters in the major leagues. He's also a clubhouse leader and beloved teammate, credited for helping players around him develop and mature. The thought of losing Cruz is tough, but he'll turn 41 next summer and historically, performance drop-offs have hit rapidly and without warning for players at this age. He also figures to have a fairly favorable offseason market, with the universal DH doubling his potential suitors. If the Twins have ~$30 million to spend this offseason (as our

ballparked) can they afford to spend half of it on Cruz with other needs to address?

 

Key Stat: 57 HR and 141 RBIs in 173 games with Twins

Offseason Live Schedule

• Ep 1:
  (Thurs, 10/8)
• Ep 2:
  (Tues, 10/13)
• Ep 3:
  (Thurs, 10/15)
• Ep 4: Twins Arbitration Decisions (Tues, 10/20)
• Ep 5: Free Agency – Catchers & Infield (Thurs, 10/22)
• Ep 6: Free Agency – Outfield & DH (Tues, 10/27)
• Ep 7: Free Agency – Starting Pitchers (Thurs, 10/29)
• Ep 8: Free Agency – Relief Pitchers (Thurs, 11/5)
• Ep 9: Twins Trade Targets (Tues, 11/10)
• Ep 10: Offseason Blueprints (Thurs, 11/12)

Follow us on social media to catch the live shows (they're broadcast via Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube) and subscribe to our podcast to receive the audio versions of any episodes you miss. We'll also be featuring the content and embedding the videos in articles here on the site.

 

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[Doctor Gast]

If we sign any FA I don`t think it`d be more than 1 yr. except maybe Clippard. I`d like & have a good chance of signing Cruz & Odo. I like May but I feel he`ll want to test the waters. If they are dead set not bringing up Lewis they`ll need to bring back Gonzalaz if the price is right. I`d not bring back Romo

[rdehring]

Romo, Avila and Gonzalez...go. Adrianza, resign if it can be done for a cost similar to 2020. Try to resign both Clippard and May with Clippard on a deal similar to 2020 and May up to $5M per for a couple years. Try to get Odorizzi on a one or two year deal for up to five million less than last year's QO.  Resign Hill if you can do it on a one year deal for a couple million max. Would be hesitant to resign Cruz on a two year deal and would love to have him back for one.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

A lot of free agency forecasting articles have cited that the DH will continue to exist in both leagues in 2021. No one has said this publicly yet, right? Do we know when an announcement might happen? As far as Cruz goes, at any rate, totally agree with: 

Would be hesitant to resign Cruz on a two year deal and would love to have him back for one.

 

There might be some recency bias with Romo's struggles in the playoffs causing some of us to think his season was worse than it really was, but it seems like picking up his option is a big risk of paying for decline. The buyout isn't an onerous amount. Use what would be Romo's salary to give Clippard a little raise if he wants to come back. 

 

I hope the Twins engage May about a deal, but I think someone else will end up offering him more - although depending on how teams behave after this oddball season, the middle of the free-agent market where he is might get squeezed. But he's young enough and successful enough that I think someone will pay him.

 

 

I imagine Odorizzi may want another one-year contract to play a healthy year and then hit the market again, and I imagine the Twins might prefer to sign him for multiple years, but I'd be happy to see either if he wants to return. He's fairly young, he has something to prove about his health, and he had the best season of his career in MN. It seems to make a lot of sense.

 

 

 

[4twinsJA]

Great job last night, enjoyed it. I am for putting the Twins money towards pitching, seems to be weaker with MLB ready prospects. Not a fan of signing aging pitchers, no Hill or Romo, apprehensive about Clippard. Add FA starter-Odorizzi? and closer. Hitting may be some drop off from Cruz and Rosario with young players, hope would not be worse than Marwin, Avila, and Adrianza. May be able to find cheap FA shortstop, infield player. Difficult to predict FA market this year, may be some bargains out there.

[Danchat]

I'd like to try and get Cruz and Clippard back. I do want May back, but multi-year reliever deals so rarely work that I'd be cautious.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Let me preface this by saying I love Cruz, and I value known production.

 

But.

 

Not signing Cruz, in addition to saving money for other needs, would also make it possible to find room and playing time for all of our MLB-ready hitting prospects, plus both catchers, while also leaving room on the roster for glove-first utility players.

 

Thus it could improve our defense, our lineup flexibility, and our player development.

 

One could imagine the following hitters on the roster:

 

Rooker

Garver

Sano

Arraez

Donaldson

Polanco

Kiriloff

Buxton

Kepler

--

Jeffers

Larnach

Lewis/FA (note Lewis could play good defense at either CF or SS)

Gordon/FA

 

[Loops]

Clippard - definitely sign

May - probably sign if the cost isn't outrageous

The rest I think we can replace internally for the most part. Cruz is great but I think one of the easiest to replace. He also can't keep it up forever! We do need a good utility man for the infield. But I think we can get at least as good internally as how Gonzalez and Adrianza played. Odorizzi was a no-op this year. If he comes back on a cheap one year deal that would be OK. And Romo and Hill are replaceable. This frees up some money for a good free agent at the position of choice or generally helps to lower the payroll in a year that will for sure be one in which the Twins like most teams will cost cut.

[Shaitan]

If the price/length is right, I'd consider:

Clippard

May

 

I think there's a good shot at Odo on a reclamation deal. Huge win for the Twins on the QO situation. He'll be cheap and he seems happy here.

 

Absolutely on Cruz, unless he's seeking 3 years. Which seems unlikely.

 

[chpettit19]

 

 

The rest I think we can replace internally for the most part. Cruz is great but I think one of the easiest to replace. He also can't keep it up forever! 

It's not just you, I see a lot of talk on these boards about letting Cruz walk. If your argument is that you think he's done that's one thing, but if your expectation is that his production can be easily replaced I just don't get it. He was 4th in WRC+ in 2019 and 8th in 2020. In all of baseball. In his pre-Twins time he was 20th in 2018, 10th in 2017, and 10th in 2016. In. All. Of. Baseball. He's been the 4th best hitter in all of baseball since 2016. Where do people think they're getting the production to replace that?

 

I know the league is full of youngsters putting on a show and it's fun to dream on the 3 top guys we have ready, or near ready, for the show. But to expect them to replace the 4th best hitter in baseball is a real bold strategy.

 

Nelson Cruz has a WRC+ of 148 from 2016-2020 (148,146,133,163,164 individual years)

 

There have been 12 rookies to beat 148 WRC+ Since 2016:

Ke'Bryan Hayes 2020- 24 games- 195 WRC+

Yordan Alvarez 2019- 87 games- 178 WRC+

Randy Arozarena 2020- 23 games- 176 WRC+

Aaron Judge 2017- 155 games- 174 WRC+

Gary Sanchez 2016- 53 games- 170 WRC+

Matt Olson 2017- 59 games- 164 WRC+

Rhys Hoskins 2017- 50 games- 158 WRC+

Ryan O'Hearn 2018- 44 games- 153 WRC+

Bobby Dalbec 2020- 23 games- 152 WRC+

Shohei Ohtani 2018- 114 games- 151 WRC+

Willi Castro 2020- 36 games- 151 WRC+

Fernando Tatis Jr 2019- 84 games- 150 WRC+

 

That's 12 players in 5 years. So basically 2 guys a year come up and hit the way Cruz does. Many of which (8) played fewer than 60 games in that season. If they think his slump at the end of the year was a sign of him declining then you move on, but if it was his nagging hip injury and he's going to be close to his usual self next year there is no logical argument to be made that his bat is easily replaced. 

 

Now that doesn't mean you write him a blank check, or that one of the rookies doesn't come up and go nuts and put up crazy numbers. But it does mean they need to look very closely at bringing him back for a reasonable price and letting the young guys prove they can at least come close to replacing the boomstick.

[Thegrin]

Try and bring back May and offer him a chance to start. (Give Duffy a chance to start also, if he wishes.)

 

How many of our Free Agent eligible players try and find jobs elsewhere will tell us a great deal about how the players feel about Rocco & his coaches + how they feel about our front office.  If there seems to be a push to escape, they will be signalling that things are not so pleasant as they seem. I watched all the games on TV and the clubhouse seemed a happy enough place. But this was a crazy year with severe restrictions on the players movements which could distort how the players feel about the year and the Twins.

 

I wouldn't mind spending on Clippard. Effective lefty's are always hard to find.

 

Cruz blocks some of our young players from getting AB from the DH spot, but Cruz seems to be the glue that keeps the clubhouse loose.  Didn't you love the Homer Rove?  We can only trust that Falvine will make the right call here.

 

and that leaves Rich Hill.  I enjoyed watching him pitch in September.  I still remember Jamie Moyer.  I'll leave this one in the hands of Falvine and yell at them in the next offseason if they get it wrong. 

 

As for Romo, Avila, Gonzalez & Adriianza lets spend that money on a replacement for Berrios. Berrios has shown no indication that he is going to stay, so they might as well trade Berrios and Rosario for pitching prospects.  Bring up Royce Lewis and Gordon to replace Gonzalez and Adrianza and we'll find out if they can hit in the major leagues.

 

 

 

 

[Nine of twelve]

May, Clippard, Odorizzi: Try to keep. Clippard probably just for one year but May and Odorizzi for two or more.

Hill, Cruz: 1 year only, and only if a very team-friendly contract. They are too close to falling off the cliff.

Romo, Avila, Adrianza, Gonzalez: Thank them for their contributions and wish them well on their future endeavors elsewhere.

[yeahyabetcha]

Let me preface this by saying I love Cruz, and I value known production.

 

But.

 

Not signing Cruz, in addition to saving money for other needs, would also make it possible to find room and playing time for all of our MLB-ready hitting prospects, plus both catchers, while also leaving room on the roster for glove-first utility players.

 

Thus it could improve our defense, our lineup flexibility, and our player development.

 

One could imagine the following hitters on the roster:

 

Rooker

Garver

Sano

Arraez

Donaldson

Polanco

Kiriloff

Buxton

Kepler

--

Jeffers

Larnach

Lewis/FA (note Lewis could play good defense at either CF or SS)

Gordon/FA

[yeahyabetcha]

A whole bunch of unproven players on this roster. And I don’t understand the need to turn the #1 prospect into a utility player

[Rosterman]

Who replaces these guys?

 

Catcher. Jeffers and Garver. Set. Willians a third backup. You can sign some minor

league free agents. You have nearly $5 mil to spend.

 

Middle Infield. You have Gordon and Blankenhorn. You have Royce Lewis in the wings. You also have Zander Weil. No need to go big. You can always find a player like Vargas if push comes to shove to also hold you over. The Twins had a variety of names in the minors, Tovar and Maggi. You have some$13 million to spend.

 

Cruz. Will he keep doing one year deals? Can you get him for $12-15? Does he add leadership? Will he help Sano, his heir apparent? If not, do you buy someone else? Rooker or Kirilloff at first, Sano at DH. That can work. Rosario movement also in the picture.

 

Odorizzi is a helluva a contract. He will try and get a multi-year (good luck). He is going to be cheap as he strives for a comeback. Already jettisoned Bailey. Hill didn't really increase his value. Is Hill a good stopgap with his experience as you work a rookie arm or two into the rotation. Depends on the overall worth of Thorpe, Smeltzer, Dobnak as possible package tradebait (with Rosario). Do you see any of these three back in 2022 is the bigger question. Yes, with the money spent on Hill/Bailey/Odorizzi you could make a nice one-year offer to Bauer. Be nice to have four experienced arms in the rotation to start the year.

 

2020 Bullpen: Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Stashak, Wisler, Thielbar, Coulombe. You also have names like Clay, Colina in the wings.

 

Like a solid rotation arm, I would spend on a closer (if available). I would rather invest in a return of Hendricks than a multi-year with May. I thought May could be the closer of the future, but I don't trust him today, I would like to think that he will sign for 3 years and somewhere in the $15-22 range. I could see the Twins moving on. Clippard was a nice cheap signing, I'm sure he will draw a decent contract for 2021. Nothing like the $2.5, but maybe would go $4. I would not bring back Romo for $5.

 

What is the fate of Griffin Jax for the Twins?

[Brandon]

Depends on our budget for who we can keep this offseason. Top priority has to be resigning Cruz. I think a 1 year with option is a fair deal. Good bye Avila and Marwin Gonzales. Adriana could go either way. I can see us bringing him back on a lower base salary maybe with some incentives and I can see the Twins letting him walk. I do think if I would be a good idea to have a veteran on the bench.

 

On Pitching, I see us signing Clipper if he is in the 4 million for a season and we should make an effort for May. The Twins strategy revolves around a deep pen. Depending on budget will determine if we keep Room.

 

For the rotation we have Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, and Dobnak. We also have a few potential starters almost ready for the show. I think we could sign 1 or both of Odorizzi or Hill.

 

It will be fun to see who they go sign. I think the budget will be a factor in who they sign or resign. I do expect the Twins to let Rosario go to save some money. Its also going to be fun to see who the Twins do target as well.

[Jacksson]

Goodbye = Romo, Avila, Gonzalez, Hill, 

Come on Back = Clippard, Cruz

If Price is Right = Adrianza, May, Odorizzi

[jun]

Goodbye: Romo, Avila, Gonzalez

Come on back: Clippard, May, Cruz

If Price is right: Hill, Odorizzi, Adrianza

Please trade: Cave, Rosario, Sano

Please promote as many capable young players as possible.

[tony&rodney]

The Hot Stove could be cold for quite some time. First we need November to clear out and then for a clear plan to be put in place. Until then, money might be tight. Unless.

Unless, the Twins decide to do a little gambling for 2021. At that point everything is in play because certainly there is money in the bank and investments can pay off.

The Twins' free agents are likely to be available for a good price.

Romo-? Clippard -yes. Cruz - hopefully. I like Odorizzi but he should make more cash elsewhere. Everyone else can go. Time for a few young players on the bench, rotating.

I'm hopeful that the team is willing to listen for trade opportunities with everyone. 

It is inconceivable that neither the Astros nor their management received serious penalties for the cheating scandal last year which makes it easy to cheer on the Rays, but I really admire the team approach with two strikes by Houston. The Twins and Rays swing from their heals with two strikes and allow the Astros to get by with inexperienced pitching. Perhaps that can be an idea to look for next spring- swing hard and then put the ball in play as needed.

[USAFChief]

Yes.

[DocBauer]

First, just want to state how much I love and appreciate these video casts. They are a lot of fun and offer some very good insight/debate. I was happy to participate Thursday night in this live offering.

 

While we have no way to determine 2021 payroll at this time, of course, I hold out optimistic and probably mis-guided hope the FO will find "acceptable financial losses" are in order, combined with window of opportunity, to keep the payroll at status quo. Of course, final numbers may still end up pro-rated without fans and a shorter season, etc. Short-sighted optimist? Probably.

 

Can't let TWO bats like Cruz AND Rosario BOTH go. You are just relying too much on prospects. Is there a decent, less expensive option in FA to replace Cruz? Maybe. But he bas to remain a priority if the numbers align.

 

Gone for sure: Hill, Romo and Gonzalez. Assuming Hill wants to keep playing, he's a 1/2 season SP who's velocity and SO continue to decline. Gonzalez is just not the player he was. There are at least a couple options out there that interest me who could take his spot for less. I think it's just time to mkve on from Romo, and not because of a couple bad games at the end of the year. See below.

 

Probably gone: May, Adrianza and Avilla. Unless May gets a big offer, I'd much rather use Rome's $ for him. Were May a FA from a different team, many perspectives on him woukd be different. We remember that bad appearances and too easily forget velocity, SO's, etc. Adrianza back for the same $ or a little less should be considered. The glove is still there. He could be an excellent 2nd utility player beyond a Marwin replacement. Two solid years with the bat and a horrible 2020. Who is the real Adrianza? I could see a 1yr deal. I think Avilla is gone unless he's willing to take a much smaller 1yr deal to provide depth and experience. I'm honestly thinking he will be looking at a split contract with a MLB invite.

 

Back if you can swing it: Odorizzi. Unless the Twins can pull off another similar Oddo or Maeda trade, who is another quality SP option better than Oddo himself? Is it a 1yr make good or a multi-year offer I'm not sure. The guy might not match Maeda or Berrios, of course, but combined with Pineda, we have a quality 1-4. Again, barring a smart and nice trade, who is a better option?

 

Fitting all of this in a $125M payroll will be hard. But makes the most sense to me if possible.

[DocBauer]

First, just want to state how much I love and appreciate these video casts. They are a lot of fun and offer some very good insight/debate. I was happy to participate Thursday night in this live offering.

 

While we have no way to determine 2021 payroll at this time, of course, I hold out optimistic and probably mis-guided hope the FO will find "acceptable financial losses" are in order, combined with window of opportunity, to keep the payroll at status quo. Of course, final numbers may still end up pro-rated without fans and a shorter season, etc. Short-sighted optimist? Probably.

 

Can't let TWO bats like Cruz AND Rosario BOTH go. You are just relying too much on prospects. Is there a decent, less expensive option in FA to replace Cruz? Maybe. But he bas to remain a priority if the numbers align.

 

Gone for sure: Hill, Romo and Gonzalez. Assuming Hill wants to keep playing, he's a 1/2 season SP who's velocity and SO continue to decline. Gonzalez is just not the player he was. There are at least a couple options out there that interest me who could take his spot for less. I think it's just time to mkve on from Romo, and not because of a couple bad games at the end of the year. See below.

 

Probably gone: May, Adrianza and Avilla. Unless May gets a big offer, I'd much rather use Rome's $ for him. Were May a FA from a different team, many perspectives on him woukd be different. We remember that bad appearances and too easily forget velocity, SO's, etc. Adrianza back for the same $ or a little less should be considered. The glove is still there. He could be an excellent 2nd utility player beyond a Marwin replacement. Two solid years with the bat and a horrible 2020. Who is the real Adrianza? I could see a 1yr deal. I think Avilla is gone unless he's willing to take a much smaller 1yr deal to provide depth and experience. I'm honestly thinking he will be looking at a split contract with a MLB invite.

 

Back if you can swing it: Odorizzi. Unless the Twins can pull off another similar Oddo or Maeda trade, who is another quality SP option better than Oddo himself? Is it a 1yr make good or a multi-year offer I'm not sure. The guy might not match Maeda or Berrios, of course, but combined with Pineda, we have a quality 1-4. Again, barring a smart and nice trade, who is a better option?

 

Fitting all of this in a $125M payroll will be hard. But makes the most sense to me if possible.

[bobs]

I think a reasonable 2-yr deal with Odo to be your #4 starter makes some sense.  After watching this FO last three years, I'd guess May, Cruz, Clippard (possibly in that order) stay.  Adrianza is a cheap Utility and plays pretty good defense could be kept.  The rest I think are gone.

[beckmt]

A lot depends on the Rosario decision.  Can you get anything for him?.  For me, too many clubs will cut payroll and think Twins will let Rosario go to offer much.  

Cruz needs to be brought back unless he wants a two year deal and if the NL has the DH, he will probably get just under $30 million for the 2 years.  He likes it here, so maybe he will take a bit less.  

May will probably get more elsewhere and Romo, Gonzalez, and Adrianzia is also gone.  Gordon might be able to handle one UT position, and I would expect the maybe you can get one starter (not Smeltzer) from the minor league rosters.  Hill or Odo, might be in play, but expect more that Hill might be the choice.  

Twins need one more or two more A relievers in FA, and then hope some youngsters make it.  Interesting offseason.

[cardsfan]

Goodbye = Romo, Avila, Gonzalez, Hill,

Come on Back = Clippard, Cruz

If Price is Right = Adrianza, May, Odorizzi

I'm hoping Odorizzi considers his home town.

[Joey Self]

I view the free agent evaluation much like trades with other teams.  Using Avila for example, if another catcher is available for a price that the team thinks is a better value, then Avila is "traded" for that one.   (Now, I know the team that just lost the better catcher may not sign Avila, but that's not relevant.)

It's not a perfect analogy, because often a catcher is traded for an outfielder and a prospect.  

JcS

[Trov]

First, much of it depends on cost for many of these players.  For the pitching, I am open to any of the pen guys for right price and Odo as well.  Hill I am ehh on.  If he was a good clubhouse guy I would be willing to try another year with him.  

 

Cruz, yes I would want him back for not only his potential offense, but he is a good clubhouse guy as well.  Avila I would pass on, unless you trade away Garver then keep Avila or find another of his like.  Gonzalez and Adrianza are both no for me.  They are easy replaced with cheaper options that may be offense upgrades.  You can find similar players on waivers, via cheap trades, or internal.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

only ones I'm not keen on keeping would be Odorizzi, Adrianza, and Avila. The rest I'd want back if possible. Marwin wasn't great for us, but his flexibility is quite valuable and he's young enough that he could be a good bounce back candidate. 

[ashbury]

• Romo - no.

Avila - no. Platoon Garver/Jeffers, since Jeffers seemed to have no problem with RHP (indeed his 2019 showed a reverse platoon split as well), and acquire someone's AAAA catcher who has 1 option year remaining, instead of spending on Avila.

Adrianza - no.

Marwin - no no no.

Clippard - yes.

May - yes.

Hill - yes if the terms are similar to this year's, plus a bump for his demonstrating a successful recovery in 2020, but no commitment to 2022.

Odo - no. Sadly. I like him. I keep trying to convince myself it can be yes, but I foresee him remaining fragile physically, and essentially a 4-inning pitcher, which makes it as much about the 40-man spot as the money.

Cruz - yes if the cost is similar to 2020 and is a one-year guarantee only. More than that, no, and again sadly, because he was the right signing two years ago.