How Much Would You Pay Marcum?

[John Bonnes]

Let's get this down before Marcum signs - what is your over/under number for a "good" contract for Shaun Marcum. Aaron and I wrestled a bit about this on the latest podcast. He's willing to give Marcum a 2-year deal, say for $15M. I'm not. In fact, I'd be more willing to offer him a 1/10 deal than a 2/15.

 

What is your number? It has to answer two questions:

- above it, you say "no"

- below it, you say "yes"

 

I'm going to go with 1 year/9M. I'm not willing to do a 2-year deal.

[Nick Nelson]

I'd definitely go 2/15 but I'm guessing he'll get more than that.

[ericchri]

Do we know he's healthy? I realize he had the injury last year (elbow?) which he has to recover from, so I'm wondering about that. I don't have any knowledge of the situation honestly, but I'm genuinely puzzled that he hasn't signed yet and that there hasn't been much news of interest in him (at least in the places I look). It just makes me think he's holding out for way too much money, or there's a fairly severe health concern still lingering with him. All of which makes me think a 1 year deal is probably the better way to go. Give him $10 million, works for me (not my money).

[Alex]

I'd definitely go 2/15 but I'm guessing he'll get more than that.

 

I think the Twins are in a position to legitimately overpay and take a risk to go 2/20 if that's what it takes (maybe with a team option?). Their salary obligations drop considerably over the next three years that this is a risk they can take. It's not something I'd say they should do with multiple players, but if there's ever an opportunity, it's now.

[Rosterman]

7.5 + 9.5 + third year option.

[minn55441]

I think the Twins are in a position to legitimately overpay and take a risk to go 2/20 if that's what it takes (maybe with a team option?). Their salary obligations drop considerably over the next three years that this is a risk they can take. It's not something I'd say they should do with multiple players, but if there's ever an opportunity, it's now.

 

I agree, we are currently a 70+ win team, with the addition of Marcum we turn into a 75+ win team. That still doesn't get us to .500 or even contention, but it least it gives us a better chance to win every 5th day. I think the key is to keep the contract at 2 years or less. I'd even go as high as 2/25million with an option for 2015, just in case he out preforms his contract.

 

Terry has money in his pocket, he needs to spend it to make this team better. It servces no purpose to stick it under the mattress for a rainy day.

[johnnydakota]

I think the Twins are in a position to legitimately overpay and take a risk to go 2/20 if that's what it takes (maybe with a team option?). Their salary obligations drop considerably over the next three years that this is a risk they can take. It's not something I'd say they should do with multiple players, but if there's ever an opportunity, it's now.

 

And his under 40% rate of groundballs doesnt worry you?

[johnnydakota]

I agree, we are currently a 70+ win team, with the addition of Marcum we turn into a 75+ win team. That still doesn't get us to .500 or even contention, but it least it gives us a better chance to win every 5th day. I think the key is to keep the contract at 2 years or less. I'd even go as high as 2/25million with an option for 2015, just in case he out preforms his contract.

 

Terry has money in his pocket, he needs to spend it to make this team better. It servces no purpose to stick it under the mattress for a rainy day.

 

Personally i would rather see the money go to the cuban kids, i worry about Marcum injury and his groundout rate....

[Alex]

And his under 40% rate of groundballs doesnt worry you?

 

Not as much of a concern in Target Field and his HR/9 isn't bad. Though, I guess with our outfield fly balls could be a problem....

[Alex]

Personally i would rather see the money go to the cuban kids, i worry about Marcum injury and his groundout rate....

 

Fair concerns, but there's a cap on international money already and the money saved by his contract just goes into someone's pockets. Signing him won't affect that.

[beckmt]

I am more of the 10 mil 1 year. I would guess Marcum is around 3 years between $30 and $35 mil. too much of a risk for that

[Ultima Ratio]

You've got to give him about 25/year to bring payroll up to ~100 million, of course.

[gmarais66]

Fair concerns, but there's a cap on international money already and the money saved by his contract just goes into someone's pockets. Signing him won't affect that.

 

There is no international cap on the two Cuban players being referred to.

 

For all those who are complaining about the Twins not signing Marcum, let's remember that every other team in MLB has passed on him too, at least to this point. There has to be a reason. I'm guessing there is some serious concern about his health.

[lightfoot789]

I'm with JohnnyDakota - Overpay on the Cuban SS and let's sure up that infield for the rest of this decade. I'd rather pay for a solid SS and win 75 games than over pay for an often injured pitcher and win 80. Let's get younger and better at the same time.

Could be a productive 2015 infield(especially offensively)

Sano 3B

Cuban SS

Rosario 2B

Mauer 1B

[John Bonnes]

There are serious concerns about his health. He had some elbow injuries last year. I thought I'd explain why I would NOT give him a 2-year deal.

 

Going into June, Marcum looked like he was heading for a big pay day this offseason. He had posted two seasons of 200 inning ball with a 3.60 ERA. He had (if I remember right) another good start to this year. He and his agent had to be thinking that he was in line for a 3/33M deal - and that was before the salaries escalated. Instead, he had elbow problems, which reminds everyone that Marcum has elbow problems, and limped through the rest of the year.

 

If I'm him, and I'm confident that the elbow issue was temporary and I'm going to bounce back, I WANT a one-year deal. I want to have a 2013 season that is like my 2011 season and 2010 season and get back onto the market again where I'm going to make 3/40 or at least 2/25.

 

On the other hand, it I'm worried I really do need Tommy John soon, then I want a two-year deal.

 

So if he wants a 2-year deal, I'd stay away. To me, it's an indication that he himself doesn't have confidence that he's healthy. In fact, I'd argue that I'd rather give him a 3-year deal than a 2-year deal, just because if he is hurt, at least I have a chance to get some value out of the 3rd and 4th year that I don't get in a 2-year if he needs TJ.

[Steve Lein]

Seems Marcum is heading for a 1 year deal because of the injury concerns. That being the case, I'd go as high as 1yr/10mil. When/if healthy, he'd easily be the staff's best pitcher on paper, and the type of upgrade Twins should have been trying to make from the start instead of a guy like Correia, who I don't feel improves anything when there already is Hendriks/Gibson/DeVries/Deduno/et. al around (he's not going to be any better than them AND is now paid considerably more).

[darin617]

2YR $17.5M with club option for $10M for 3rd yr.

[DaveW]

2 year 16-18 mil.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd go 2/20, but I don't think it will take that much.

 

Does someone with more knowledge of this care to help with the international signing cap? I don't understand how these Cuban guys wouldn't count, is it due to age?

[SweetOne69]

I'd go 2/20, but I don't think it will take that much.

 

Does someone with more knowledge of this care to help with the international signing cap? I don't understand how these Cuban guys wouldn't count, is it due to age?

 

 

I don't know the full details, but this year Cuban players are treated as Free Agents instead of International Signings.

[Brandon]

1 year 8 million + 4 million in incentives for innings pitched from 150 to 210 + a 2nd year option at 13 million with 500k buyout.

[snepp]

Given the ridiculous direction they're heading with their payroll, I wouldn't hesitate to give a 2nd year and some type of 3rd year vesting option. They're not spending that money anywhere else, there's no risk.

[CDog]

I'd go 2/20, but I don't think it will take that much.

 

Does someone with more knowledge of this care to help with the international signing cap? I don't understand how these Cuban guys wouldn't count, is it due to age?

 

I think it's something to do with age and league(s) they've played or not played in. I apologize for all the details, but that's what I think I read once.

 

EDIT: Found this quote in an article on mlb.com... "Cuban players that are at least 23 years old and have played at least three seasons in a Cuban professional league are not subject to the new international signing guidelines established by the Collective Bargaining Agreement."

[Shane Wahl]

One year, $10 million if he wants a one-year deal (I would assume that he would NOT want a team option for the second year). If he demands two years, then 2/$17 million would seem to be good. Then a team option for another $10 million. I am less concerned about his injury then most are around here though. Maybe I am wrong.

[Kwak]

Put the Corriera contract in perspective--because there is no way that Marcum would sign with the Twins for a lesser deal than him. If it's only one year it needs to be at least double that contract. Likely a 2-year deal is required for a 50% premium per year above Correria or it will be no sale.

[Oxtung]

I really don't understand everyone's concerns about his elbow with the way the payroll, team make up and potential prospects currently sit. I'd rather have 21 starts from Shaun Marcum and 10 starts from Kevin Correia than 31 starts from Correia. As been mentioned ad nausea the Pohlads are just going to pocket whatever money isn't being spent over the next 3 years and since the payroll is in line to just continually drop signing Marcum has no impact on the ability to sign other players. Next year's payroll, after Morneau and Blackburn come off the books, is going to be close to $60 million. Add in the $25 million in increased TV revenue and the Twins will have somewhere between $40 and $65 million dollars to spend next offseason. Does anyone think they can/will spend anywhere near that amount? Does anyone think paying Marcum $10 million dollars next year of that $40-60 million is going to hamper the Twins next offseason?

 

As far as I'm concerned the Twins can pay whatever they have to in order to bring Marcum here. I don't care if it is a one, two or three year deal. I would further hope if the Twins continue to stink they would be willing to eat a part of that salary to move Marcum, assuming he is a wanted commodity, for good prospects down the road. Other than taking money out of the Pohlad's pockets there is no downside to signing Marcum.