Spend money just to spend money?

[luke829]

I could only wish that I myself had the problem of spending money just to spend money.

[jokin]

May was a starting pitching prospect with the Phillies, but you can find scouting reports that suggest he may end up being a MLB reliever.

 

I strongly concur. Too many are automatically writing him into the rotation in 2014 when thus far he has only demonstrated mastery at High A. Trying to forever be a realist, it would be just short of winnng the lottery if the Twins hit big on Meyer, got a decent high-leverge RP role out of May, with Worley turning out to bring about 3/4ths of Brad Radke's lifetime WAR value over a Twins career (he's currently behind Radke at the same career-points).

[josecordoba]

But you could also likely get the same amount of below average innings from Derek Lowe, Kevin Millwod, Carl Pavano or even Livan Hernandez at a fraction of the cost of Correia. So isn't then paying Correia "spending money just to spend money"?

 

Livan threw 67 Innings with a FIP of 5.32 whose actual age is unknown. Pavano doesn't need to be revisited further. Millwood and Lowe were better pitchers in 2012 (I'm guessing they the Twins project these guys to decline to be worse then Kevin Correria). This can possibly be seen in their declining innings total. But you raise a good point- I'd have a hard time giving you a counter point.

[jokin]

 

The second point has to do with Marketing the Team. I realize they would have a hard time really telling the truth about the upcoming process. The reality is the team will lose the money of Casual Fans. The marketing probably has to deal with individual greatness (Mauer), potential stars (Hicks, Arcia) along with Opponents (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels)

 

Along with the 2014 All Star Game! I think it's going to get old real fast at how many different ways they are going to tie in current ticket sales with "guaranteed preferred" All Star tickets.

[jokin]

Livan threw 67 Innings with a FIP of 5.32 whose actual age is unknown. Pavano doesn't need to be revisited further. Millwood and Lowe were better pitchers in 2012 (I'm guessing they the Twins project these guys to decline to be worse then Kevin Correria). This can possibly be seen in their declining innings total. But you raise a good point- I'd have a hard time giving you a counter point.

 

In comparison to Correia, Millwood and Lowe could be had for a song (as a package!), for only a one year commitment.

[Highabove]

Taking the Twins at their 50% formula, we have returned to the same revenues realized at the Dome.

 

Also notice that during their final two Dome Years, the Twins had some of the highest operating revenue in Major League Baseball.

 

 

The Business Of Baseball - Forbes.com

 

The Business Of Baseball - Forbes.com

[Jim Crikket]

The Twins could spend more money (I'm not disputing this). What I see the problem being if you assume the True Talent Level being between 65-70 wins. They would probably need to spend $50 Millions dollars more next year to be in the 75-80 Win Range. This assumes the cost of 1 WAR being in the 5 Million Dollar Range. They would never come close to making up this money at the Box Office. If they underachieve like the Marlins then they have a disaster. The closer to contention a team is the more valuable every win becomes.

 

I don't know where this $5 million per 1 WAR is coming from, but if you're using it to argue that it would take an extral $5 million in payroll for every win the Twins could get above the 65ish they've been getting, I just can't accept that premise. If that were the case, a team that starts with ZERO wins would have to spend $300 million just to REACH 60 wins! There's just no way the Twins would need to spend an additional $5 million for every win they would wish to realize.

 

EDIT TO ADD: Heck, now that I think about it, The Twins won a couple MORE games last year by cutting $15 million in payroll. Maybe TR thinks that you gain 1 WAR for every $5 million you CUT in payroll?

[johnnydakota]

I don't know where this $5 million per 1 WAR is coming from, but if you're using it to argue that it would take an extral $5 million in payroll for every win the Twins could get above the 65ish they've been getting, I just can't accept that premise. If that were the case, a team that starts with ZERO wins would have to spend $300 million just to REACH 60 wins! There's just no way the Twins would need to spend an additional $5 million for every win they would wish to realize.

 

So we are going to win 16 games this year?

or is it that each team wins 50 and loses 50,

so that would equate 66 win season?

[josecordoba]

A team of replacement players would in theory win about 1/4 games (41 Games). So if a team wanted to only invest in minimum street free agents (This in theory) would be their win total on account of Random Variation. The Twins last year had 5.6 Pitching War (30th in Baseball) Along with 22.5 Hitting WAR. This makes their true talent level be somewhat in the neighborhood of 69 Wins. Teams tend to be lucky or unluckier in close games over the course of a season. An extreme variation would be someone like last year's Balitmore Orioles who tended to overperform in close games on a historic level winning 93 games in the process.

 

It's not accurate to say 5 Million Dollars is the cost for every win. A lot of this is due to Major League Contracts being cost-controlled for the First Six Years. The figure of about 5-6 Million Dollars Per Win is what it costs to upgrade a roster in Free Agency according to Dave Cameron. For example the Dodgers signed Zack Grienke for 24.5 Million Dollars Per Season (When he's currently around a 5 WAR Pitcher). You pay for the front-end of contracts then tend to be hurt on the back end due to age related decline.

[Shane Wahl]

A team of replacement players would in theory win about 1/4 games (41 Games). So if a team wanted to only invest in minimum street free agents (This in theory) would be their win total on account of Random Variation. The Twins last year had 5.6 Pitching War (30th in Baseball) Along with 22.5 Hitting WAR. This makes their true talent level be somewhat in the neighborhood of 69 Wins. Teams tend to be lucky or unluckier in close games over the course of a season. An extreme variation would be someone like last year's Balitmore Orioles who tended to overperform in close games on a historic level winning 93 games in the process.

 

 

It's not accurate to say 5 Million Dollars is the cost for every win. A lot of this is due to Major League Contracts being cost-controlled for the First Six Years. The figure of about 5-6 Million Dollars Per Win is what it costs to upgrade a roster in Free Agency according to Dave Cameron. For example the Dodgers signed Zack Grienke for 24.5 Million Dollars Per Season (When he's currently around a 5 WAR Pitcher). You pay for the front-end of contracts then tend to be hurt on the back end due to age related decline.

 

This is accurate and well-stated.

[Top Gun]

Nick Blackburn is expected to be sidelined for the next 4-6 weeks after undergoing surgery on his right forearm last week.

 

Blackburn had surgery on October 25 to remove a bone chip from his right elbow, but he continued having problems after the procedure, necessitating another operation. While it's possible he could make it back in time for Opening Day, it certainly doesn't help his chances of winning a roster spot. The odds were probably already not good after he posted a 7.39 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over 19 starts in 2012.

 

Source: Minneapolis Star-Tribune

[Top Gun]

FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi reports that the Rangers, Padres and Pirates are showing interest in Shaun Marcum.

 

The Indians, Royals and Twins have also expressed interest in the right-hander this offseason, but it's not clear whether they're still in on him. Marcum has posted a 3.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 85 starts across the last three seasons, but he had some elbow issues in 2012 and hasn't been a bastion of health during his career. Still, he just turned 31 and could wind up being a nice investment on a reasonable deal.

[TheLeviathan]

The figure of about 5-6 Million Dollars Per Win is what it costs to upgrade a roster in Free Agency according to Dave Cameron.

 

This is all well and good, but I think it misses the point. I don't think many here have any delusions that another 10-15 million spent in FA makes this team a playoff team. It certainly wouldn't hurt their luck, but the rub is more that additional talent opens more options than you can usually foresee even at the time of signing. Signing Marcum and Johnson to short term deals makes a lot of sense for a number of reasons, namely A) It replaces a bad player at a key position these are positions with no organizational depth at the top of their minor league system that should be feared as being blocked and c) Provides value and production at two positions that are usually high in demand.

 

Even if these players never play more than a year for the Twins, they offer the team the option of not playing bad players or flipping these players for more value down the line. In other words, there is literally no downside whatsoever other than pocketed money for the Pohlads being spent on the team. The Pohlads, by the way, are already budgeting to pocket money normally, this is just icing on the cake. If a zero downside move like this one to potentially upgrade the team's overall talent level significantly is too much for this ownership to stomach, than I think I make take a similar approach with my spending dollars.

 

I'm still a fan, but the money they'll get from me will be dramatically reduced. It's just not fair to ask of your fans what you aren't willing to do yourself. Everyone rushing to defend the "spend for the sake of spending" are essentially acknowledging a crappy product. Why would I invest in that crappy product if they won't?

[JASONTYNER]

My frustration with the twins has reached an all-time high this offseason, with a FA crop of very capable pitchers, we seemed to have thrown in a white towel already. In my own opinion, the twins are still 3 starting pitchers away from a good shot in the AL central. Our offense is as talented as it's ever been, our defense is suspect with trevor plouffe at third and willingham in left, which is all the more reason to put together a qualtiy starting staff. I will not be spending anymore of my money on tickets until we can open our pocket books to sign some free agents, or make some crafty trades. If morneau comes back strong and has another MVP caliber year, which we all know he's capable of, we could be in the hunt. If the FO feels we aren't in contention, blow it up and be honest with the fans, cut payroll and get us some prospects. This whole smoke and mirrors attempt with....yeah we can compete with kevin correia and i'm sure someone will emerge out of the junk we signed to start, is getting old.

[snepp]

I don't know where this $5 million per 1 WAR is coming from, but if you're using it to argue that it would take an extral $5 million in payroll for every win the Twins could get above the 65ish they've been getting, I just can't accept that premise. If that were the case, a team that starts with ZERO wins would have to spend $300 million just to REACH 60 wins! There's just no way the Twins would need to spend an additional $5 million for every win they would wish to realize.

 

The $5 million per WAR comes from what teams spend on free agents as a whole compared to those players' WAR values as a whole.

 

Anywho, a replacement level team is considered to be 45-50 wins, that would be the starting floor in your example, not zero. Teams obviously obtain considerable value from their pre-arb/pre-FA players making a fraction of their open market value, so the overall value per win at the team level isn't $5 million because not all players come out of free agency.

 

Theoretically, if a team did build itself entirely out of free agents, with no indentured servants, they would end up paying in the neighborhood of that $5 million per win to go above those 45-50.

[Mike Sixel]

So, if htey should not spend money this year, because it just won't get them to 80 wins, what will you say next offseason, when they look pretty much like they do now, only younger and cheaper?

 

To be specific, if they should not spend any real money this year, what makes you think that next year, when salaries will be higher because every team has $25MM more to spend, and the Twins come off with 70 wins or so, again, why would you argue next year they should spend money?

 

I think Correia is spending money to spend money, he is the definition of that. How, exactly, does signing a good pitcher to a 2-3 year deal this year hurt the Twins at all? If they have too many good pitchers in 2 years, they trade some. If the young guys did not work out, they have good pitchers, maybe. Morneau comes off the books this year, does anyone think they'll replace his salary with one guy earning that much? The following year Willingham, Doumit, Correia come off the books. Possibly by then, Plouffe needs to be paid. But not one other player on this roster is likely to require a deal for more than $5-7MM at that time (and that is Diamond and Worely). That's it.

 

So, where will they be spending all my tax dollars? Because if they should not spend money this offseason, because they didn't win many games, I don't see how they'll be spending money next offseason.

 

How does NOT spending money this year help them at all? How does not signing 2 legit FAs pitchers to 2-4 year deals hurt them, given that in 2 years only Mauer will be making more than $5MM or so?

[bird]

josecordova, thanks for joining in! Please continue to comment. You add a lot to the board.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The "spending just to spend" theory is contingent on the belief that the funds will be saved for future use. We all know that is not the case. That being said, throwing copious amounts of money against the wall hoping that something sticks doesn't make much sense either.

 

I know this: long-term contracts for pitchers are a huge risk. I would love somebody to do a study on this to show how these contracts work out over time, and on a year by year basis, factoring in salary ranges for these contracts. I would be willing to bet that the results are worse than most people realize. I am not a huge fan of long term, high dollar contracts for pitchers. Too much risk.

 

Here we sit, bitching and moaning about where and how the Twins allocate their resources, specifically payroll here. We can talk about history, about trends, about horrible signings all we want. The thing is, we only know enough to be dangerous. We know offers were made, but don't know how much. We know the team was in on players, but not to what extent. We get partial answers and half-truths from players, agents, and GM's, all with their own agendas, that we try to spin into whatever point we are trying to make. We don't know specifics about Marcum or any other player the team has kicked the tires on. Just pieces that are released in an ongoing game of "contract chess".

 

The Twins are a private run organization, allowed to spend their money however they would like. They have never made any bones about the fact they are being run like a business and not like a hobby. That means dollars matter in almost every decision. Very few companies run in the red for extended periods of time. It can't be done.

 

The Twins obviously have a game plan in place. Like their baseball decisions or not, that plan will be followed. TR is not an idiot. You can disagree with some of the decisions being made, but he is only playing the hand he has been dealt. Minnesota is not flashy. Income earning possibilities are fewer here than other places (ie advertising, appearances, etc.). Combine that with a GM that refuses to regularly overspend for anything, and you see slow movements.

 

(For the record, I believe the Correia signing to be atrocious at the moment. I truly hope to be proven wrong.)

 

Bottom line, complaining about dollars and payroll is like hitting your head against the wall. Hit it hard and aggressive or nice and soft, at the end of the day the wall will still be standing and your head will hurt.

[ThePuck]

The "spending just to spend" theory is contingent on the belief that the funds will be saved for future use. We all know that is not the case. That being said, throwing copious amounts of money against the wall hoping that something sticks doesn't make much sense either.

 

I know this: long-term contracts for pitchers are a huge risk. I would love somebody to do a study on this to show how these contracts work out over time, and on a year by year basis, factoring in salary ranges for these contracts. I would be willing to bet that the results are worse than most people realize. I am not a huge fan of long term, high dollar contracts for pitchers. Too much risk.

 

Here we sit, bitching and moaning about where and how the Twins allocate their resources, specifically payroll here. We can talk about history, about trends, about horrible signings all we want. The thing is, we only know enough to be dangerous. We know offers were made, but don't know how much. We know the team was in on players, but not to what extent. We get partial answers and half-truths from players, agents, and GM's, all with their own agendas, that we try to spin into whatever point we are trying to make. We don't know specifics about Marcum or any other player the team has kicked the tires on. Just pieces that are released in an ongoing game of "contract chess".

 

The Twins are a private run organization, allowed to spend their money however they would like. They have never made any bones about the fact they are being run like a business and not like a hobby. That means dollars matter in almost every decision. Very few companies run in the red for extended periods of time. It can't be done.

 

The Twins obviously have a game plan in place. Like their baseball decisions or not, that plan will be followed. TR is not an idiot. You can disagree with some of the decisions being made, but he is only playing the hand he has been dealt. Minnesota is not flashy. Income earning possibilities are fewer here than other places (ie advertising, appearances, etc.). Combine that with a GM that refuses to regularly overspend for anything, and you see slow movements.

 

(For the record, I believe the Correia signing to be atrocious at the moment. I truly hope to be proven wrong.)

 

Bottom line, complaining about dollars and payroll is like hitting your head against the wall. Hit it hard and aggressive or nice and soft, at the end of the day the wall will still be standing and your head will hurt.

 

Fine, then they should have bought the freakin ballpark themselves so they wouldn't be expected to fulfill the promises, or rather blatant lies, they told in order to get taxpayers to fit the majority of the bill for the ballpark.

[DelawareTwinsFan]

Wouldn't spend now. This question does make me wonder what were they thinking when they were demanding a that Baker sign for two years instead of the one that he desired? Anyone hear anything else about the details of the deal? Were they asked to withold the qualifying offer for the following year? Why did they sign Corriea for two years? I doubt he would have gotten a major league deal from any other team and if he did, no big loss, right? Even though the team struggled with the new pitchers last year, I actually enjoyed seeing what we had. I for one actually was intrigued with Deduno and his ability to throw a nasty curve and have trouble throwing the two seamer because it had too much movement. I for one would continue to try to develop Deduno. I also think Hendriks showed much improvement at the end of the year and finally showed decent velocity (actually threw in the low 90's). I think we should use Gibson as a long relief guy and spot start him to work his arm back into shape while giving him a taste of major league hitters. I would hope he becomes a fixture in to middle of the rotation by year's end. Might as well keep the rule V guy (Ryan Pressly), seems like the perfect time to do it. From what I read, he has a pretty live arm.

[Highabove]

The "spending just to spend" theory is contingent on the belief that the funds will be saved for future use. We all know that is not the case. That being said, throwing copious amounts of money against the wall hoping that something sticks doesn't make much sense either.

 

I know this: long-term contracts for pitchers are a huge risk. I would love somebody to do a study on this to show how these contracts work out over time, and on a year by year basis, factoring in salary ranges for these contracts. I would be willing to bet that the results are worse than most people realize. I am not a huge fan of long term, high dollar contracts for pitchers. Too much risk.

 

Here we sit, bitching and moaning about where and how the Twins allocate their resources, specifically payroll here. We can talk about history, about trends, about horrible signings all we want. The thing is, we only know enough to be dangerous. We know offers were made, but don't know how much. We know the team was in on players, but not to what extent. We get partial answers and half-truths from players, agents, and GM's, all with their own agendas, that we try to spin into whatever point we are trying to make. We don't know specifics about Marcum or any other player the team has kicked the tires on. Just pieces that are released in an ongoing game of "contract chess".

 

The Twins are a private run organization, allowed to spend their money however they would like. They have never made any bones about the fact they are being run like a business and not like a hobby. That means dollars matter in almost every decision. Very few companies run in the red for extended periods of time. It can't be done.

 

The Twins obviously have a game plan in place. Like their baseball decisions or not, that plan will be followed. TR is not an idiot. You can disagree with some of the decisions being made, but he is only playing the hand he has been dealt. Minnesota is not flashy. Income earning possibilities are fewer here than other places (ie advertising, appearances, etc.). Combine that with a GM that refuses to regularly overspend for anything, and you see slow movements.

 

(For the record, I believe the Correia signing to be atrocious at the moment. I truly hope to be proven wrong.)

 

Bottom line, complaining about dollars and payroll is like hitting your head against the wall. Hit it hard and aggressive or nice and soft, at the end of the day the wall will still be standing and your head will hurt.

 

What other Businesses beg for a large public subsidy to run their operation?

[TheLeviathan]

The Twins are a private run organization, allowed to spend their money however they would like.

 

So can we as fans. The problem with that is, the more of us that do that, the more it compounds the problem. Which only limits the success of the franchise long-term. Not spending now or showing a lack of commitment to the team now does have long-term ramifications. This franchise's history with that wasn't that long ago we should forget.

[johnnydakota]

Nick Blackburn is expected to be sidelined for the next 4-6 weeks after undergoing surgery on his right forearm last week.

 

Blackburn had surgery on October 25 to remove a bone chip from his right elbow, but he continued having problems after the procedure, necessitating another operation. While it's possible he could make it back in time for Opening Day, it certainly doesn't help his chances of winning a roster spot. The odds were probably already not good after he posted a 7.39 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over 19 starts in 2012.

 

Source: Minneapolis Star-Tribune

MLB reporter Rhett boilinger is reporting a next wensday surgery on Blackburns right wrist

[Ultima Ratio]

What other Businesses beg for a large public subsidy to run their operation?

 

Solyndra, General Motors, Farming, Wall Street, Walmart -- just a quick cross section of the ubiquity (you weren't serious were you?)

[johnnydakota]

The "spending just to spend" theory is contingent on the belief that the funds will be saved for future use. We all know that is not the case. That being said, throwing copious amounts of money against the wall hoping that something sticks doesn't make much sense either.

 

I know this: long-term contracts for pitchers are a huge risk. I would love somebody to do a study on this to show how these contracts work out over time, and on a year by year basis, factoring in salary ranges for these contracts. I would be willing to bet that the results are worse than most people realize. I am not a huge fan of long term, high dollar contracts for pitchers. Too much risk.

 

Here we sit, bitching and moaning about where and how the Twins allocate their resources, specifically payroll here. We can talk about history, about trends, about horrible signings all we want. The thing is, we only know enough to be dangerous. We know offers were made, but don't know how much. We know the team was in on players, but not to what extent. We get partial answers and half-truths from players, agents, and GM's, all with their own agendas, that we try to spin into whatever point we are trying to make. We don't know specifics about Marcum or any other player the team has kicked the tires on. Just pieces that are released in an ongoing game of "contract chess".

 

The Twins are a private run organization, allowed to spend their money however they would like. They have never made any bones about the fact they are being run like a business and not like a hobby. That means dollars matter in almost every decision. Very few companies run in the red for extended periods of time. It can't be done.

 

The Twins obviously have a game plan in place. Like their baseball decisions or not, that plan will be followed. TR is not an idiot. You can disagree with some of the decisions being made, but he is only playing the hand he has been dealt. Minnesota is not flashy. Income earning possibilities are fewer here than other places (ie advertising, appearances, etc.). Combine that with a GM that refuses to regularly overspend for anything, and you see slow movements.

 

(For the record, I believe the Correia signing to be atrocious at the moment. I truly hope to be proven wrong.)

 

Bottom line, complaining about dollars and payroll is like hitting your head against the wall. Hit it hard and aggressive or nice and soft, at the end of the day the wall will still be standing and your head will hurt.

 

Ron Gardenhire at the winter carivan today said ...after finishing last 2 years in a row Twins fans deserve better.... ok Terry its up to you to get better players !!!!!!!!!!!!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

What other Businesses beg for a large public subsidy to run their operation?

 

Seriously? Big businesses get huge tax breaks and concessions all the time from cities and states looking to bring them in or have them build in a specific spot. The only thing about the Twins is that they are a very much in the public eye.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

So can we as fans. The problem with that is, the more of us that do that, the more it compounds the problem. Which only limits the success of the franchise long-term. Not spending now or showing a lack of commitment to the team now does have long-term ramifications. This franchise's history with that wasn't that long ago we should forget.

 

Agreed. That is part of the problem with being in Minnesota. No huge TV contract, no huge advertising income. They actually rely on fans in the stands to meet the bottom line. The team walks a fine line in this regard.

[TheLeviathan]

Agreed. That is part of the problem with being in Minnesota. No huge TV contract, no huge advertising income. They actually rely on fans in the stands to meet the bottom line. The team walks a fine line in this regard.

 

I think the colossal failure that is this offseason and an all but guaranteed season of futility is slowly burying us further behind. Even if the gestures are ultimately token, it does matter.

[johnnydakota]

Ron Gardenhire at the winter carivan today said ...after finishing last 2 years in a row Twins fans deserve better.... ok Terry its up to you to get better players !!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Did we just wittness the 1st bus toss of the year?

Can some one check and see if Terry has skid marks running up his back?

[johnnydakota]

Seriously? Big businesses get huge tax breaks and concessions all the time from cities and states looking to bring them in or have them build in a specific spot. The only thing about the Twins is that they are a very much in the public eye.

 

Dont forget we still subsidize companys to build and produce overseas