Spend money just to spend money?

[Ultima Ratio]

We saw a healthy Plouffe (Who was a decent long-term option) along with a dinged up Plouffe (Who was not). We saw Dozier make his first run through the majors (340 At Bats). We saw Florimon for 150 at bats. I've got ideas about the long-term value of all these players yet I haven't seen enough of any of them to make conclusive judgments. If the Twins were on a different spot on the Franchise Curve I would advocate a different approach but I'm fine with seeing if these guys can make useful adjustments.

 

Fair enough, but it's not like all the info we have on these guys is constrained to these 2012 ABs. We have track records (major and minor league stats) -- extensive -- that strain credulity that Florimon and Dozier will ever become more than replacement players. Of course there is always the possibility that one may make a miraculous leap, but that's not a good enough reason to keep playing them and refuse to upgrade. Hell, it's possible that I make a miraculous leap and move my fastball from mid 80s to high 90s. Put me in or we'll never know

[jokin]

I'd like to rephrase the question a bit: "Why AREN'T they spending more money in 2013?" and "WHAT will they do with the savings?"

 

I think that the HONEST answers to those questions would get a little more at the heart of my discontent.

 

Right now I think that they aren't spending money mostly because Terry Ryan is ultra-conservative financially and has a significant distrust of purchasing free agent pitching. I don't think it has anything to do with whether spending the money might actually improve this team somewhat. I honestly believe that it goes to the heart of a psychological, philosophical and emotional issue for Terry Ryan. He is cheap -- and he wants to build a pitching staff on the cheap. He (and the rest of this organization) does not measure success in terms of wins and losses but in terms of how much black ink is on the bottom line.

 

In answer to my second question, I would guess that they are simply going to use their non-spending to increase profits (at least for now although as JC mentions, if they don't spend more, their revenues may nosedive and then they'll be in a different kind of mess). I'd like to believe that they will harbor it for more significant free agent acquisitions in the future but until they make it clear that they have changed their accounting approach, I have no choice but to believe that any savings will go straight to profit.

 

I have made it clear all along that I don't have a problem with spending less than 50% if, in contending times, the team is willing to send significantly more than 50%.

 

BUT as of right now, I have not heard ANY Twins official (where are you Mr. St. Peter?) state that the team is changing its approach to the 50% rule. As I've stated before, the policy apparently has a lot to do with a ceiling but nothing to do with a floor.

 

All of the team's fans have a right to be skeptical and disenchanted with the way that the free-agent dance has been handled by the Twins this off-season. Season ticket holders, on the other hand, also have the right to be angry for being misled.

 

Let's face it, this offseason proves that the Twins are working off the "Let's fool the rubes long enough, just enough to get us through the 2014 All-Star game season" script ("Stadium Upgrades!"), as cheaply as they can possibly get away with doing.

[twinsnorth49]

The CPU comment wasn't a cheap shot? So you didn't understand what he was saying? I had no issues understanding what he meant.

 

Largely incoherent? Hmmm, that's what Frodaddy said...

 

No, barely and you're right, I concur with Fro, thus the use of the word "also".

[ThePuck]

No, barely and you're right, I concur with Fro, thus the use of the word "also".

 

Sure

[josecordoba]

I'd like to rephrase the question a bit: "Why AREN'T they spending more money in 2013?" and "WHAT will they do with the savings?"

 

I think that the HONEST answers to those questions would get a little more at the heart of my discontent.

 

Right now I think that they aren't spending money mostly because Terry Ryan is ultra-conservative financially and has a significant distrust of purchasing free agent pitching. I don't think it has anything to do with whether spending the money might actually improve this team somewhat. I honestly believe that it goes to the heart of a psychological, philosophical and emotional issue for Terry Ryan. He is cheap -- and he wants to build a pitching staff on the cheap. He (and the rest of this organization) does not measure success in terms of wins and losses but in terms of how much black ink is on the bottom line.

 

In answer to my second question, I would guess that they are simply going to use their non-spending to increase profits (at least for now although as JC mentions, if they don't spend more, their revenues may nosedive and then they'll be in a different kind of mess). I'd like to believe that they will harbor it for more significant free agent acquisitions in the future but until they make it clear that they have changed their accounting approach, I have no choice but to believe that any savings will go straight to profit.

 

I have made it clear all along that I don't have a problem with spending less than 50% if, in contending times, the team is willing to send significantly more than 50%.

 

BUT as of right now, I have not heard ANY Twins official (where are you Mr. St. Peter?) state that the team is changing its approach to the 50% rule. As I've stated before, the policy apparently has a lot to do with a ceiling but nothing to do with a floor.

 

All of the team's fans have a right to be skeptical and disenchanted with the way that the free-agent dance has been handled by the Twins this off-season. Season ticket holders, on the other hand, also have the right to be angry for being misled.

 

1. I think you're somewhat correct. I think Terry Ryan thinks Free-Agent Pitching is generally a poor value due to Injury Risks. Remember this is a franchise that traded Johan before Free-Agency when they're highly unlikely to find a comparable pitcher for decades. Keith Law has talked about how if he was a GM (He would tend to avoid long free agent deals for the probablity that they fail). I tend to doubt that Terry Ryan as GM views success merely according to the Bottom-Line but I have no doubts his roster building has budget constraints they wouldn't encounter in other markets.

 

2. The Profit/Spending Thing has a few variables. The reality is they're bad enough where the money needed to upgrade the roster to the point where it impacts the gate probably isn't profitable. If you assume the 1 WAR for 5 Million Dollars.

 

3. I don't fault fans for being mad with the current on the field product (Especially Season Ticket Holders). The problem though isn't the Twins aren't currently spending enough money it's instead years of bad drafts, bad trades, and poor player development. This process is much more important in building a good baseball team in Minnesota.

[jokin]

[/font]

Didn't we see plenty of Dozier, and enough of Florimon and Plouffe last year to know roughly what they are capable of? Also, we say plenty of Carroll at 2B at the end of last year when we should have seen if Dozier was any better at 2B, or hell, even give Mastro a shot there like many on this board were clamoring for.

 

Don't worry, you're going to get your wish for the possible keystone combo scenarios, the Twins have enormous incentive to keep Carroll under 401 PAs.

[josecordoba]

Fair enough, but it's not like all the info we have on these guys is constrained to these 2012 ABs. We have track records (major and minor league stats) -- extensive -- that strain credulity that Florimon and Dozier will ever become more than replacement players. Of course there is always the possibility that one may make a miraculous leap, but that's not a good enough reason to keep playing them and refuse to upgrade. Hell, it's possible that I make a miraculous leap and move my fastball from mid 80s to high 90s. Put me in or we'll never know

 

I don't disagree with your assertion. I might slightly differently intrepret these guys potential.

 

Dozier's Minor League Stats Pre 2012 show the potential of a useful enough offensive player to have value at 2B.

 

Florimon's value would have to be tied up in only defense (Which is possible at short).

 

Plouffe seemed to show legitimate improvement with consistent at bats in 2011-2012. I can't promise any of these guys are good long-term options. Yet I see enough potential to see why the Twins might let them play it out in 2013.

[nicksaviking]

I don't disagree yet the role of Kevin Correria types concern me must more when you're competing for a division then when you're rebuillding. Basically if Kevin Correria gets Thirty Starts in 2013 (We'll probably get what many predict) hopefully he gives you 180 below average innings yet if Kevin Correria types start 30 games when competing for a Division Title then this is a much bigger problem.

 

But you could also likely get the same amount of below average innings from Derek Lowe, Kevin Millwod, Carl Pavano or even Livan Hernandez at a fraction of the cost of Correia. So isn't then paying Correia "spending money just to spend money"?

[Jim Crikket]

I don't fault fans for being mad with the current on the field product (Especially Season Ticket Holders). The problem though isn't the Twins aren't currently spending enough money it's instead years of bad drafts, bad trades, and poor player development. This process is much more important in building a good baseball team in Minnesota.

 

Here's where I strongly disagree. While LONG TERM sustained success does rely on improving the player development process, there's no reason that, during a time like the Twins are in now with significant payroll space even within their self-imposed 50% of revenues business model, they couldn't go ahead and spend some of that money on veteran players that would make the product on the field closer to being at least MLB-average or, at worst, give the fans some indication that you've noticed the talent sucks and that you're willing to invest in at least trying to make it better.

 

As is, the Twins are essentially telling the fans, "we can't tell you the truth about how bad our team is going to be because you won't show up for games, so in the future, you should just understand that everything you hear coming from our mouths in the offseason is a lie. We're just hoping that the 20 year olds we have in Cedar Rapids this summer will turn out to be really good within two years or, failing that, that you fans keep believing the crap we're spewing every year until we stumble upon some success again."

[Boom Boom]

Signing Correia was spending money just to spend money.

[johnnydakota]

No, I'm saying your posts are largely incoherent.

 

Im sorry sonny, what is it you didnt understand?

just like Huston did? the Astros g.m. came out and said we are not contending , but building.

If i was Jimmy Pohlad? that means if i was the owner , i would try honesty....even at the risk of losing a few ticket sales.

Trade them all? Doumit, Willingham,Justin and Perkins will not be here when we make another run, and if they are they will be 4 years older,

and on the darkside of there careers....So tell me Mr. Fro Daddy ,did that clear things up?

[Alex]

I don't disagree yet the role of Kevin Correria types concern me must more when you're competing for a division then when you're rebuillding. Basically if Kevin Correria gets Thirty Starts in 2013 (We'll probably get what many predict) hopefully he gives you 180 below average innings yet if Kevin Correria types start 30 games when competing for a Division Title then this is a much bigger problem.

 

For me the signing of Correia is symptomatic of a bigger problem and full of contradictions, so arguing he has value on a terrible team doesn't fit. The Twins could have cobbled 30 starts out of some combination of Swarzack, Hendriks, Deduno, Devries, and Walters. If Kevin Correia gets 30 starts on a division winner, it at least means the rest of your staff is, you know, good. The only place he gets 30 stars is on a terrible team. Heck, he couldn't even cut it in the Pirates rotation for a full season.

 

I actually I agree that it's the Twins who have spent money to spend it in his case.

[FrodaddyG]

Im sorry sonny, what is it you didnt understand?

just like Huston did? the Astros g.m. came out and said we are not contending , but building.

If i was Jimmy Pohlad? that means if i was the owner , i would try honesty....even at the risk of losing a few ticket sales.

Trade them all? Doumit, Willingham,Justin and Perkins will not be here when we make another run, and if they are they will be 4 years older,

and on the darkside of there careers....So tell me Mr. Fro Daddy ,did that clear things up?

No, I think one of our points seems pretty obvious now.

[johnnydakota]

No, I think one of our points seems pretty obvious now.

 

I apoligise, for my writting punctiuation and spelling .

when i was 12 years old , i was forced to work 2 jobs to pay my own way in life.

Also as i now live in Mexico , my computer has a Columbian hard drive,

that means the punctuation and letters of the keys dont line up when used in the english form

May i suggest that if what i post offends you , maybe you could just not read anything with my name on it?

i will always be a huge fan of the Twins , hope we see better times soon ...have a nice day

[Steve Lein]

As would I. Heck I'd be shocked if May starts a single MLB game ever. He was a RP prospect with the Phillies. Only when he came here did he become the next Cy Young in the wings.

 

Lets get the facts straight here. Before the 2012 season, May was a near-unanimous consensus #1 prospect, as a starter, for the Phillies organization. There have been only 5 games in his MiLB career where he didn't start (in 102 total), and 3 of those came in rookie ball after being drafted.

 

In his first taste of AA ball this year, he finally saw some struggles, posting a 4.87 ERA, BUT, he also struck out over a batter per inning, which to me, is a good sign for improvement moving forward given his track record of doing so. Take his stints at High-A ball for example. First taste, he struggled, walking almost a batter an inning to go along with striking out well over 1 batter an inning. When he repeated, he walked almost the same total number of batters, in over twice the amount of innings, and struck out more per inning than the year before (demonstrated improvement).

 

If he's destined to start the year repeating AA ball in the Eastern League, I'd expect that trend to continue, and he'll force his way to AAA midway through the year. But I'm also not going to be surprised if he starts the year with Rochester after pitching ~150 innings each of the last 2 years, as the Twins organization is seriously lacking pitching talent in the upper levels, even with Gibson and Hendriks.

[FrodaddyG]

when i was 12 years old , i was forced to work 2 jobs to pay my own way in life.

2011 was rough for a lot of us.

[johnnydakota]

2011 was rough for a lot of us.[/quote

 

I tried apoligising to you , and you wish to continue belittle me?

I am envios of those who can write correctly,

i tried to apoligise for my lack of education .

what more do you need from me?

[ThePuck]

tell ya what , why dont you say that to my face?

I tried apoligising to you , and you wish to continue ?

be a man say it to my face, i do travel.....

 

No need to stoop there johnny...

[FrodaddyG]

tell ya what , why dont you say that to my face?

I tried apoligising to you , and you wish to continue ?

be a man say it to my face, i do travel.....

You aren't "apologising". You're coming up with empty excuses why your posts border on unreadable. The nationality of your "hard drive" has nothing to do with anything. It's a rambling stream of incoherent nonsense. Feel free to ignore that, and not bother taking your time to read your posts over and make things mildly coherent, and just start with the internet threats. I assure you that will go a long way toward making you seem more credible.

[Shane Wahl]

I am SO friggin tired of the "don't spend just to spend" crap. You spend to put a better product on the field and win more games than if you don't spend. People that think unless you're challenging for a World Series title there's no point in spending any money have obviously never run a business. If the Twins won't spend enough to keep fans interested in attending games and buying merchandise in 2013, they'll have lower revenues and they'll use that as an excuse to keep an even lower cap on payroll in 2014. So much for the "save money this year to spend it next year" line of BS. It simply doesn't happen with this organization.

 

"Like" is not strong enough. There should be a moratorium on the phrase "spend money to spend money" because it is making me a bit crazier every time I read it.

[TheLeviathan]

Here's my response to the "Why spend money to spend money crowd" - if the Twins don't feel it worthwhile to spend on their product - why should I?

 

And if more people start thinking like me, where does that leave this team's future?

[Willihammer]

Lets get the facts straight here. Before the 2012 season, May was a near-unanimous consensus #1 prospect, as a starter, for the Phillies organization. There have been only 5 games in his MiLB career where he didn't start (in 102 total), and 3 of those came in rookie ball after being drafted.

 

In his first taste of AA ball this year, he finally saw some struggles, posting a 4.87 ERA, BUT, he also struck out over a batter per inning, which to me, is a good sign for improvement moving forward given his track record of doing so. Take his stints at High-A ball for example. First taste, he struggled, walking almost a batter an inning to go along with striking out well over 1 batter an inning. When he repeated, he walked almost the same total number of batters, in over twice the amount of innings, and struck out more per inning than the year before (demonstrated improvement).

 

If he's destined to start the year repeating AA ball in the Eastern League, I'd expect that trend to continue, and he'll force his way to AAA midway through the year. But I'm also not going to be surprised if he starts the year with Rochester after pitching ~150 innings each of the last 2 years, as the Twins organization is seriously lacking pitching talent in the upper levels, even with Gibson and Hendriks.

 

At the risk of derailing this thread, its easy to have a respectable looking k/9 when you're facing 4 and a half batters per inning. His K%, on the other hand, plummeted from 32.5% in high A to 22.7% in AA. By comparison, Liam Hendriks struck out 21.7% of batters in the same league, at the same age, and he did it while walking a lot fewer, and still landed on his face in his first trip to the show, obviously. These guys aren't sure things, you don't pencil them into your plans until they bang the door down, or at least start knocking on it.

[Chance]

I would have no problem with the twins not spending money right now so they have more freed up for the next couple offseasons, but do the twins really strike you as the team that will take the 20-30 mil saved this year and reinvest that into the next season when all our young guys will be ready to go? Or save money for whenever we are "this close" to contention? I don't think so the patrol sits at 80-95 regardless of inflation, new ball park, or the possibility of a championship. I'm not usually a payroll guy but this is upsetting.

 

You don't have to spend money to spend money but the twins could be a contender for the division if they would "wisely" spend 100 mil a year.

[Riverbrian]

As a member of the Half Full Club... Also a member of the See No Evil club... I've got the badges and I wear them on my sleeve proudly.

 

I have a hard time trying to condense my reasoning for why I'm in these clubs. Actually I have a hard time condensing directions to the bathroom that's right around the corner.

 

I guess the best way to condense my thoughts is this way: None of us have walked a mile in Terry Ryan's shoes.

 

We don't know what he has planned long range. We don't know what offers he has made... What conversations he has had.

 

We don't know what's on the big board in his office and I choose to trust.

 

TR's first go round was successful and I don't expect results in his second go round with a snap of his fingers. I'm trying to exercise patience.

 

Personally... I really want one of the upper level FA Pitchers and Marcum was the bottom of that tier and he's all that is left to hope for. I'm prepared for the seemingly obvious that I won't get Marcum on my team but I refuse to throw rocks because I don't know why. Is there a medical reason? The price just doesn't make sense? Is this just the wrong year for a large contract? Is every year the wrong year for a large contract? Maybe TR doesn't like him? Gardy?... Maybe Marcum has said... No Way I will consider the Twins? I don't know...

 

I simply won't throw rocks until someone from the inside says here is why? I continue to assume that TR is working on improving the team and I assume that he hasn't really showed any of us exactly what it is.

 

I can't remember if I've used the phrase. "Don't spend to just spend"... However... I do know that I don't care what the payroll comes in at. I trust that a plan is in place and that plan is in motion and if that means Kevin Correia... It means Kevin Correia. I'll watch him and hope he spots a couple of fastballs.

 

Here's to the Twins!!! Will any of you clink glasses?

[bird]

Heresy!

 

I have a feeling your ears will be stinging and you will soon be summarily added to numerous "Ignore" lists among the "Hear No Evil" crowd.

 

May was a starting pitching prospect with the Phillies, but you can find scouting reports that suggest he may end up being a MLB reliever.

[johnnydakota]

You aren't "apologising". You're coming up with empty excuses why your posts border on unreadable. The nationality of your "hard drive" has nothing to do with anything. It's a rambling stream of incoherent nonsense. Feel free to ignore that, and not bother taking your time to read your posts over and make things mildly coherent, and just start with the internet threats. I assure you that will go a long way toward making you seem more credible.

 

In the spanish alphabet there are extra letters, extra accsents (punctuations), when i use this symbol ( i am pressing the number nine.

not shifting up , but simply the number nine.once again let me say i apoligise....we are all twins fans

hope we get a good season soon , have a nice day ...

[Highabove]

It's just not about win's and losses. It's also the quality and the entertainment value of their product. If the Twins can turn 9-1 games into 4-2 games they need too do it. Three years ago, the Fans purchased more tickets then 26 other Teams in baseball.The fan's were rewarded with St.Peter stating that they could not do it again. Then the payroll cuts started. The Fans pay to much money for the honor of watching a putrid product.

[johnnydakota]

So nick Blackburn will miss the start of the season? wrist surgery? How did he hurt himself?

[johnnydakota]

It's just not about win's and losses. It's also the quality and entertainment value of their product. If the Twins can turn 9-1 games into 4-2 games they need too do it. Three years ago, the Fans purchased more tickets then 26 other Teams in baseball.The fan's were rewarded with St.Peter stating that they could not do it again. Then the payroll cuts started. The Fans pay to much money for the honor of watching a putrid product.

Over 9 million fans in 3 years....A very nice fan base ,me thinks

[josecordoba]

Here's where I strongly disagree. While LONG TERM sustained success does rely on improving the player development process, there's no reason that, during a time like the Twins are in now with significant payroll space even within their self-imposed 50% of revenues business model, they couldn't go ahead and spend some of that money on veteran players that would make the product on the field closer to being at least MLB-average or, at worst, give the fans some indication that you've noticed the talent sucks and that you're willing to invest in at least trying to make it better.

 

As is, the Twins are essentially telling the fans, "we can't tell you the truth about how bad our team is going to be because you won't show up for games, so in the future, you should just understand that everything you hear coming from our mouths in the offseason is a lie. We're just hoping that the 20 year olds we have in Cedar Rapids this summer will turn out to be really good within two years or, failing that, that you fans keep believing the crap we're spewing every year until we stumble upon some success again."

 

The Twins could spend more money (I'm not disputing this). What I see the problem being if you assume the True Talent Level being between 65-70 wins. They would probably need to spend $50 Millions dollars more next year to be in the 75-80 Win Range. This assumes the cost of 1 WAR being in the 5 Million Dollar Range. They would never come close to making up this money at the Box Office. If they underachieve like the Marlins then they have a disaster. The closer to contention a team is the more valuable every win becomes.

 

The second point has to do with Marketing the Team. I realize they would have a hard time really telling the truth about the upcoming process. The reality is the team will lose the money of Casual Fans. The marketing probably has to deal with individual greatness (Mauer), potential stars (Hicks, Arcia) along with Opponents (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels)