#3 prospect runoff!

[DaveW]

Vote!

[drjim]

I think a great case can be made for all three but I am going with Hicks. I'll take the plate discipline, speed and potential elite up the middle defense with a still developing stick. I also think Arcia is going to be a really good hitter and Meyer has the potential to be an ace. This is a very solid 3-5.

[Badsmerf]

I really have a hard time believing Hick's strengths will outweigh Arcia's. Arcia is a pure hitter that put up video game numbers in AA while turning 21 during the season. He can take some walks too, evidence by his 400 OBP. Why is Hicks's bat still developing but Arcia's isn't? I can see the argument of Hicks having a higher floor, but I can't buy the argument he has a higher ceiling. Hicks finally put together a decent offensive season and people want to put him in front of a guy that has flat out hit for the last 3 years while going up levels and adjusting to the competition.

 

From a stats perspective, they both have about a 20% K rate. Hicks is going to walk at about 12% (largely based on last few years), while Arcia showed the most plate discipline of his career last year and walked at 8.7%. However, Arcia made up for that difference in being on base by hitting his way on, which is more valuable anyway, and bettered Hicks in SLUG by 100 points.... BTW, this was a breakout year for Hicks with power (.368 in 2011, .428 in 2010, .382 in 2009, and .491 in 2008 Rk ball). As hitters, Arcia is on a different level than Hicks. I didn't even have to mention his dreadful splits as a LH hitter (he didn't improve this season). I didn't mention that Hicks is over a year and a half older than Arcia.

 

So, you can argue Hicks will have value in the MLB without developing power or a good bat, but I can't buy the argument Hicks is a better prospect, not by a long shot. Arcia would have my vote as a #1 prospect.

[drjim]

I agree that Arica will hit. I see Hicks having baseline skills - speed, defense, plate discipline - that are superior to Arcia while also playing an up the middle position. Arcia would have to really outhit him to be the superior player. And he very easily could.

[drjim]

I'm very high on Arcia. I think he is underrated a little bit nationally. I predict he becomes a better Kubel and gets there pretty quickly. I just prefer the entire Hicks package but I certainly would not argue with anyone who prefers the other two here.