Twins' Payroll Points to Six Big Decisions

[John Bonnes]

The Twins’ projected payroll is almost always the closest thing we have to a crystal ball. For the last fifteen years, it has been the lens through which we can understand offseason possibilities, and how aggressive or passive the team is likely to be. The same thing is true this year, but uff-da – that lens is sure covered with a bunch of gunk.Still, through the crud, we can see the Twins wrestling with six big decisions. The first is the biggest, and everything else is dependent on it:

 

Decision 1: How much will the Twins budget in player payroll next year?

This is always a small mystery, but we usually have an idea within $10 million or (at most) $20 million. This year? It could be as much as a $60 million swing between the lowest and highest number.

 

Last year’s payroll was about $138 million. If it increases by 10% or so (which would be expected in a normal year), it could be as high as $150 million. If they anticipate zero fan revenue and being stuck with a full season of paying players, it’s possible it could be as low as … yikes. Your guess is as good as mine. Anything under $90M would be disastrous, so let’s set the floor there.

 

The difference is even bigger than it looks, because $87 million is pretty much committed, so they could have anywhere from $3M to $63M to spend. Here’s a breakdown. For more on these numbers, make sure to watch

.

 

 

My best guess? It is reduced to $115-125M, leaving them $28M to $38M to spend. But they need to fill five pretty large holes that weren’t included in that $87M.

 

Decision 2: How much to spend on a designated hitter?

Nelson Cruz is a free agent. They can try and bring him back, but he’s going to cost $13-$15M. Or they can search for someone cheaper on the free agent market. Or they can plug in one of the Twins’ prospect bats, like Brent Rooker, Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach, and save the money for another spot.

 

Decision 3: Bring back Eddie Rosario?

If the Twins offer Eddie Rosario arbitration, he will make around $10M. (That $10M is not included in the $87M figure.) Or they can sever ties and play some combination of prospects plus Jake Cave or Lamonte Wade Jr in left field for less than $1M, and save that money for another spot.

 

Decision 4: How much to spend on a starting pitcher?

Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill (and Homer Bailey) are all free agents. The starting rotation next year still has Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Randy Dobnak, but that leaves a spot open. If you believe the Twins need an ace, Trevor Bauer will be a free agent, but he could cost $30M. Is this where they should spend their money, or budget less for a back-end-of-the-rotation starter?

 

Decision 5: Who must be paid in the bullpen?

Trevor May is a free agent, and likely to earn $4-6M. Taylor Rogers will be eligible for arbitration and be due a raise up to $6-7M if the Twins offer it. Sergio Romo has a $5M team option. None of those are included in the committed $87M, so bringing them all back boosts the payroll almost $17M, or a little more than paying Nelson Cruz to return. Or should the Twins feel comfortable relying on their existing bullpen depth?

 

Decision 6: How much to invest in a utility player?

Both Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza are free agents this offseason, and together they played 97 games (in a 60-game season). Should the Twins roll the dice with cheaper internal options, right after they went through a season depending on utility players due to injuries to Josh Donaldson and Luis Arraez, and as Jorge Polanco undergoes offseason surgery? How important is that compared to the other decisions?

 

I’d encourage you to answer these questions yourself. Keep track of the totals. See where your payroll ends up. See if you can hit a number you’re comfortable with.

 

I think you’ll find that tough choices are going to need to be made. Difficult priorities will need to be set. How brutal those choices are depends on a lot on the budget, and oddly enough, it doesn’t appear the Twins (or several other MLB teams) really know the answer to that question yet. Like a lot during the pandemic, the answer is to keep one’s head up and adjust.

 

But those adjustments will still depend on payroll and its crystal ball. Even if it is cloudy.

 

Click here to view the article

[D.C Twins]

1. Hope for the 125 mil (38 to spend)

2. Do NOT sign Cruz (that hurts but necessary), Rosie, May, Romo, Gonzo, Adrianza, Odo, or Homer. 

3. Rodgers gets 5 mil in arb

4. Rooker, Krill, or Larnach will fill the DH and outfield slot with Cave and Wade as adequate 4/5 outfielders

5. Gordon or internal for utility

6. Use the majority of the remaining 33 mil on a QUALITY starter with the remaining going to the bullpen (I'll leave this part up to the FO experts who have done a great job with talent management overall)

7. Open to an incentive laden one year option for Hill (but I don't feel good about it

 

Time to let the next generation fill the gaps (and hopefully they will be every bit as good as we hope). Would have liked to keep Cruz and May but will not work for our budget.

[D.C Twins]

Addendum:  I think we can get better value for our bullpen dollars than paying for May

[Danchat]

In a normal offseason I think Rosario gets tendered, but now it's really hard to see happening. Especially not with 3 1st round OFs nearing MLB readiness.

[Richard Swerdlick]

Time to have the prospects show us what they got. 

[Twinfan603]

 

Addendum:  I think we can get better value for our bullpen dollars than paying for May

If Rogers is going to get +$5 million in arbitration, you could theoretically reframe the debate into who you'd rather have, Rogers or May. I think I lean May in that case, and you can shop Rogers for something.

[beckmt]

Relief pitching is a year to year proposition. Rogers had an off year.  Don't read a lot into it. I would try and resign May, but it may get too expensive.  Remember those playoff rosters had several ex Twin relievers on them, most in prominent roles.  Clipard and Romo should be gone, and the Twins need to find other options or give tryouts to some of their depth.  

Cruz is a great mentor and I think you try and resign him, do not know if I want to give 2 years and if the NL has the DH, he will get that.  It is probably going to run 14 with a least a second year option.

Rosario, I would guess they are gauging his value in a trade.  If all he can bring you is a B+ prospect or a couple of lottery tickets, you may have to non tender him.  There will be a lot of outfielders in his class that may well be non tendered.  Problem is he earns too much money for small market teams. so trading him with a Smeltzer or another pitcher for a better pitcher or prospect is difficult. Plus you have Kirloff who looks ready and Laurach who was big time clutch in college. You can send Cave with him, and use Wade as the 5th outfielder, with Rooker being 4.

Middle infield backup, maybe it is time to see what Gordon has, Lewis will be here by 2022 so Polonco may be the backup by that time. (or Traded). 5th MI can probably be found cheap on the open market.

Pitching I am comfortable with one of Dobnak or Thorpe filling one hole and seeing what the farm system brings for the second.  Do not mind Oderizzi, but will probably be out of our price range.  

Relief, you should be able to find some options between the minors and FA's.  Am not too worried here.

[by jiminy]

That's depressing.

 

The 2020 team may be the most talented one we ever see. Looks like the last time we will ever have a lineup, rotation add bullpen with no significant holes (except for injuries).

[Doctor Gast]

Thank you for outlining this dilemma for us. All players which are in play to return have served the Twins admirably & I salute them all. I see Romo, Gonzalaz, Adrianza & possibly Baily as gone & I think May would like to test waters of FA. I`d like Hill to come back for 1 more year but not as part of the rotation, more as relief & spot starting as well as Clippard & Dobnak. Some that are arbitrations will depend on how much they want. I hope they sign Cruz for 1yr. & resign Odo, I hope they can get Bauer. As utility, Lewis to me makes the most sense. He has a lot of upside & savvy & we need desperately his talent. I believe he`s ready but the Twins are holding him back because of service time or they think he`s not ready. Give him a legitimate shot, if he stumble we can always get another crap shoot (I forgot right now the name of the infielder we got earlier this year). I believe one day Gordon will become a MLB SS but I hope it`s not w/ the Twins because I see him as having trouble making that transition & at most being average & that`s not what we need.

[rdehring]

Count me among those, John, who see the payroll down to the $100M to $110M range.

 

With that restriction, I don't see them signing a big name starter. Also isn't room for Rosario or Cruz, unless Cruz is willing to come back for a max of $10M.

 

I see Adrianza returning, provided he is willing to do so for a salary similar to last year or a $2M max. The other utility player after a month of seasoning at Rochester will be Lewis, playing 4-5 games a week at second, short, third and center.

 

I bring back one of May or Clippard and resign Rogers as I think some of his problems this year were related to COVID and his role as player rep.

 

Yes, that already puts me over $110M and I don't have a #4 starter. I see them getting that player via trade. Considering the numbers you presented above, the player I trade is Sano. Also would consider signing Rosario and then trading him along with a mid-prospect for a better prospect who is close. 

 

Expect the payroll will be around $110M on opening day and we will see two of Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach or Lewis on the opening day roster with Lewis joining them after playing a lot of second, short, third and center at Rochester for a month or so, becoming the new Marwin Gonzalez until he settles into his own spot in future years.

 

On the COVID front, John, I don't see a lot of people in the stands on opening day unless both a vaccine and treatment is readily available to the masses. [And that likelihood is getting smaller every day.] Maybe a couple thousand, but nothing approaching full attendance. And with that uncertainty, the Twins and most clubs are going to be cutting their payrolls substantially, So maybe there is hope that most of the numbers you and others are presenting will be much higher than needed to sign someone like say, Odorizzi. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

I think $130 million will be the ceiling payroll level. More than likely settling into the $120 range. Which, in pre-covid times would be really depressing for year 3 of a contention window. Alas, nothing was normal in 2020, so I anticipate a decrease from a vast majority of teams.

 

While we hope the 2021 season starts on time, is 162 games, with fans in the stands, no one knows if that will be the case. I imagine most teams are going to budget like there won’t be fans in the stands. Or optimistically, 20% of capacity.

[mikelink45]

I think the answers will be delayed until all of baseball looks at what will be spent.  This is a time when collusion among owners could work - except that Steinbrenner and the Yankees sound like they could up the anti.  However if they are the only ones all the salaries will be depressed and owners would love that.

 

The Twins dilemma is only a problem if the team decides it needs to make a big cut.  I cannot look at baseball salaries as part of my world - I just lop off the last three zeros or my mind freezes.  With that being said - Cruz is a very expensive luxury if he digresses for one year, and an absolute blackhole if signed for two.  

 

Rosario loses only because we have Kiriloff, Larnach, and Rooker. 

 

Rogers could and should bounce back.  May does not bounce back because he has been the same pitcher with great promise every year.  He goes.

 

If we are moving in the youth than Gordon and Lewis are the utility players - Lewis can play CF.  Adrianza, Cave, Gonzalez are gone.

 

Not confident in Thorpe/Dobnak for a rotation spot.  Give me Duran - look at the young Ian Anderson of the Braves.  And then look to see which other young arms you can trust - Balazovic?  

[iowaguychris]

I really believe this is the year we are going to see all those prospects be brought up to the majors - ready or not.  Fortunately we have the horses to fill many of our spots.  Our minor league depth will be depleted, but they are cheaper options in a likely tough financial year who happen to be pretty talented.  Goodbye Cruz, Rosario, Adrianza, Odorizzi - Hello rookies.

[chpettit19]

Will be interesting to see how free agency goes this year. This could be one of those times that the big market teams have a crazy advantage over the smaller markets. The Dodgers just signed Mookie to a gigantic contract in the middle of this season and the Mets sold for 2.3ish billion. The MLBPA will not go quietly if all the teams try to depress salaries, but the "cheaper" teams, with owners who care about nothing but the bottom line, may not be taking big swings in free agency after a down year in profit. Teams willing to spend close to normal may have an advantage in snagging FA this winter.

 

Another question is going to be the location of teams and what their local governments are doing for limiting fans. I believe Florida is already open and allowing teams to pack stadiums to full capacity right now and the teams there could go into the offseason much more comfortable with their chances of having normal attendance next year. Although that doesn't mean much for the Marlins or Rays, but the difference between being in FL and MN could be important for FO making guesses on attendance numbers for 2021.

 

As for the Twins and their budget, I'd guess they aren't going to be increasing it at all, but I think they see that their window is open and its more likely they'll be in the 125-130 area than the 95-100 area.

 

Hitters:

I think they try to bring Cruz back on another 1+option year deal and I think the chances are pretty good he takes that. 12ish mil for him next year and 10 mil option. I think they let one of Marwan or Ehire walk and bring back whichever of them is cheapest.

I think they non-tender Rosario.

I think they want to leave the door cracked for a handful of prospects, but don't want to rely on them from game 1, or start service clocks (hopefully new CBA fixes that nonsense)

They're running into a 40 man crunch and need to start making some tough decisions on players like Nick Gordon. That will play a role in Rosario (along with his $) and at least 1 utility guy leaving. Need to start clearing 40 man spots for young guys, but will likely bring in Vargas types to start the year. Easily DFAed for the young guys once the extra year is locked in and they're ready.

 

Pitchers:

I don't see them changing their "strength in numbers" approach to the bullpen in that they'll bring in a number of cheap fliers they think have a chance to be good. Bullpen arms are so hit or miss I think their plan will always be to have a number of cheap options and ride the ones who are good that year wile avoiding Kimbrel type deals.

I think they reach out to Bauer, but just don't see them being able to convince him they won't pull him after the second time through the order so he won't come here. They'll explore trade options similar to the Odo and Maeda deals and kick the tires on short term starter deals like the last few years.

 

Overall they're at the point where they need to balance their ability to stay competitive with more known quantity, cheap veterans with their need to start getting the young guns up and see what they have. Don't see them having the chance to keep any of Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, or Lewis in the minors all year. I'd guess they also have some sort of guess on what the league will be shooting for with the new CBA and know if playing the service time game this year is vitally important since the MLBPA will be fighting hard to get rid of it. If they can grandfather in a number of prospects to 6 years of team control by calling them up this year I think they do it. In order to do that I think you see them let expensive vets (Rosario) go and retain or sign cheap vets (Ehire, Marwan, TD poster's favorite Kevin Pillar) to leave the door open for the young guys to join their core of Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Arraez, Sano, and Donaldson.

[Doctor Gast]

Fans should be back w/ NPs in 2021 but we need to figure in politics. Politics could throw a wrench in everything & that could drastically effect the payroll. If that`s the case I see FA take a big hit. Like I said , the fans should be back but if the scare continues which effects FA we could get Bauer at bargain basement. A person can dream

[Matthew Taylor]

My biggest takeaway from this is that it's going to be really challenging to hang onto Nelson Cruz. I agree that the payroll will most likely take a dip. With that in mind, it's hard to justify spending half of the cap space on a 41 year old designated hitter, even if that DH is Nelson Cruz. Although this team will be coming off of back-to-back division titles and is in a great spot, there are just so many holes. With all of the injury issues last year, I don't think it's the worst thing in the world to keep the DH spot open for giving guys days off.

[Twins33]

I agree with the person above me. Unless the payroll is going to remain the same as it was which is 100 percent unlikely, it seems impossible to keep Cruz if you plan to make significant upgrades in the pitching department (SP and BP). I would prioritize pitching over everything even though the offense continues to disappoint in the playoffs. 
 

Rosario needs to be traded or let go. The only other external add that may be needed is the utility. They may need a vet for that and someone who can play SS. I think only Gordon is ready in the minors unless I’m forgetting someone. I wouldn’t hate giving it to Gordon but he lost a lot of time due to Covid so I’m unsure about him. 

[Det95Twins]

 

1. Hope for the 125 mil (38 to spend)

2. Do NOT sign Cruz (that hurts but necessary), Rosie, May, Romo, Gonzo, Adrianza, Odo, or Homer. 

3. Rodgers gets 5 mil in arb

4. Rooker, Krill, or Larnach will fill the DH and outfield slot with Cave and Wade as adequate 4/5 outfielders

5. Gordon or internal for utility

6. Use the majority of the remaining 33 mil on a QUALITY starter with the remaining going to the bullpen (I'll leave this part up to the FO experts who have done a great job with talent management overall)

7. Open to an incentive laden one year option for Hill (but I don't feel good about it

 

Time to let the next generation fill the gaps (and hopefully they will be every bit as good as we hope). Would have liked to keep Cruz and May but will not work for our budget.

 

I think the Twins will sign Cruz for 1 year with a team option for a second year.  I agree the Twins will let the other FAs you listed go but I think they should sign Clippard.  Gordon will be a utility IF and they should sign a veteran utility IF as well.  The SP FA class is thin and beyond Bauer, I don't really like it that much.  I think the Twins either sign Hill by hook or by crook and roll with Dobnak or another internal choice or trade Rosario and prospects for a SP.  I know he's not popular around here but Lance Lynn would be a good choice and the Rangers are looking for prospects.  The Twins need to start developing SPs or they will be going down the tubes in a couple of years.  I'd also consider trading Polanco if they signed Andrelton Simmons--I'd love to have a plus defensive SS for a change, although Polanco seemed solid there this year.

 

[Det95Twins]

 

I think the answers will be delayed until all of baseball looks at what will be spent.  This is a time when collusion among owners could work - except that Steinbrenner and the Yankees sound like they could up the anti.  However if they are the only ones all the salaries will be depressed and owners would love that.

 

The Twins dilemma is only a problem if the team decides it needs to make a big cut.  I cannot look at baseball salaries as part of my world - I just lop off the last three zeros or my mind freezes.  With that being said - Cruz is a very expensive luxury if he digresses for one year, and an absolute blackhole if signed for two.  

 

Rosario loses only because we have Kiriloff, Larnach, and Rooker. 

 

Rogers could and should bounce back.  May does not bounce back because he has been the same pitcher with great promise every year.  He goes.

 

If we are moving in the youth than Gordon and Lewis are the utility players - Lewis can play CF.  Adrianza, Cave, Gonzalez are gone.

 

Not confident in Thorpe/Dobnak for a rotation spot.  Give me Duran - look at the young Ian Anderson of the Braves.  And then look to see which other young arms you can trust - Balazovic?  

 

I don't think Cruz is a liability and he's provided tremendous value for the Twins.  I'd also trade Polanco and Rosario for a decent SP and then make a run at Andrelton Simmons.  The team defense would improve noticeably with only Sano and Arraez being defensive liabilities (assuming Jeffers behind the plate).

 

[heresthething]

 

My biggest takeaway from this is that it's going to be really challenging to hang onto Nelson Cruz. I agree that the payroll will most likely take a dip. With that in mind, it's hard to justify spending half of the cap space on a 41 year old designated hitter, even if that DH is Nelson Cruz. Although this team will be coming off of back-to-back division titles and is in a great spot, there are just so many holes. With all of the injury issues last year, I don't think it's the worst thing in the world to keep the DH spot open for giving guys days off.

Agree with your assessment.  With Cruz we also need to be mindful of that slump the last part of the season.  Yes, he did produce in the playoffs but would think the FO will be shy about having too much money into potentially two guys (Cruz and Donaldson) that are injury risks or in the case of Cruz time is catching up to him.

[Dodecahedron]

 

1. Hope for the 125 mil (38 to spend)

2. Do NOT sign Cruz (that hurts but necessary), Rosie, May, Romo, Gonzo, Adrianza, Odo, or Homer. 

3. Rodgers gets 5 mil in arb

4. Rooker, Krill, or Larnach will fill the DH and outfield slot with Cave and Wade as adequate 4/5 outfielders

5. Gordon or internal for utility

6. Use the majority of the remaining 33 mil on a QUALITY starter with the remaining going to the bullpen (I'll leave this part up to the FO experts who have done a great job with talent management overall)

7. Open to an incentive laden one year option for Hill (but I don't feel good about it

 

Time to let the next generation fill the gaps (and hopefully they will be every bit as good as we hope). Would have liked to keep Cruz and May but will not work for our budget.

 

I thought for sure you were Terry Ryan until you got to item 6.

[Dodecahedron]

The Twins, like all of baseball, no doubt see themselves as having taken a significant loss on 2020. The Twins will not want to take on risk at this time.

 

These are likely their priorities:

 

1) Don't take on more risk

2) Don't throw risky money at at unknown 2021 season

 

What is the least risky thing to do? Keep the status quo as much as they can. The budget is always important, but it's less important than reducing risk this year; though of course the team could go all Terry Ryan and strip down to nothing, I'm certain the team learned their lessons there when people stopped showing up at the stadium.

 

More teams than usual in the MLB are also going to be taking this strategy. This will probably not be a great year for free agents and there may even be some unexpected retirements.

 

I see the Twins largely trying to keep who they've got. Some disappointing players will be let go, but a full reboot in a division championship year is not in the cards. Don't expect a big free agent signing, and don't expect anyone who performs well to be let go. 75%-80% of the team next year should be faces they already have, minimum, even if the Twins have to spend to keep things as they are!

 

There will be no earth-shattering moves to improve the team, nor will there be a stripping the core talent.  

[jun]

 

Addendum:  I think we can get better value for our bullpen dollars than paying for May

I disagree, I have a lot more confidence in May than Rogers. I think May can be special when it matters the most. He's the only reliever who did well in those two playoff games this year.

[Major League Ready]

 

The Twins’ projected payroll is almost always the closest thing we have to a crystal ball. For the last fifteen years, it has been the lens through which we can understand offseason possibilities, and how aggressive or passive the team is likely to be. The same thing is true this year, but uff-da – that lens is sure covered with a bunch of gunk.Still, through the crud, we can see the Twins wrestling with six big decisions. The first is the biggest, and everything else is dependent on it:

Decision 1: How much will the Twins budget in player payroll next year?
This is always a small mystery, but we usually have an idea within $10 million or (at most) $20 million. This year? It could be as much as a $60 million swing between the lowest and highest number.

Last year’s payroll was about $138 million. If it increases by 10% or so (which would be expected in a normal year), it could be as high as $150 million. If they anticipate zero fan revenue and being stuck with a full season of paying players, it’s possible it could be as low as … yikes. Your guess is as good as mine. Anything under $90M would be disastrous, so let’s set the floor there.

The difference is even bigger than it looks, because $87 million is pretty much committed, so they could have anywhere from $3M to $63M to spend. Here’s a breakdown. For more on these numbers, make sure to watch

.



My best guess? It is reduced to $115-125M, leaving them $28M to $38M to spend. But they need to fill five pretty large holes that weren’t included in that $87M.

Decision 2: How much to spend on a designated hitter?
Nelson Cruz is a free agent. They can try and bring him back, but he’s going to cost $13-$15M. Or they can search for someone cheaper on the free agent market. Or they can plug in one of the Twins’ prospect bats, like Brent Rooker, Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach, and save the money for another spot.

Decision 3: Bring back Eddie Rosario?
If the Twins offer Eddie Rosario arbitration, he will make around $10M. (That $10M is not included in the $87M figure.) Or they can sever ties and play some combination of prospects plus Jake Cave or Lamonte Wade Jr in left field for less than $1M, and save that money for another spot.

Decision 4: How much to spend on a starting pitcher?
Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill (and Homer Bailey) are all free agents. The starting rotation next year still has Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Randy Dobnak, but that leaves a spot open. If you believe the Twins need an ace, Trevor Bauer will be a free agent, but he could cost $30M. Is this where they should spend their money, or budget less for a back-end-of-the-rotation starter?

Decision 5: Who must be paid in the bullpen?
Trevor May is a free agent, and likely to earn $4-6M. Taylor Rogers will be eligible for arbitration and be due a raise up to $6-7M if the Twins offer it. Sergio Romo has a $5M team option. None of those are included in the committed $87M, so bringing them all back boosts the payroll almost $17M, or a little more than paying Nelson Cruz to return. Or should the Twins feel comfortable relying on their existing bullpen depth?

Decision 6: How much to invest in a utility player?
Both Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza are free agents this offseason, and together they played 97 games (in a 60-game season). Should the Twins roll the dice with cheaper internal options, right after they went through a season depending on utility players due to injuries to Josh Donaldson and Luis Arraez, and as Jorge Polanco undergoes offseason surgery? How important is that compared to the other decisions?

I’d encourage you to answer these questions yourself. Keep track of the totals. See where your payroll ends up. See if you can hit a number you’re comfortable with.

I think you’ll find that tough choices are going to need to be made. Difficult priorities will need to be set. How brutal those choices are depends on a lot on the budget, and oddly enough, it doesn’t appear the Twins (or several other MLB teams) really know the answer to that question yet. Like a lot during the pandemic, the answer is to keep one’s head up and adjust.

But those adjustments will still depend on payroll and its crystal ball. Even if it is cloudy.

Click here to view the article

 

I am not sure on most of the answers but well done in terms of outlining the questions. I will say that I agree with DC Twin in the primary investment being made in starting pitching. There could be some very good deals out there next year for utility players. There are going to be some non-tenders that can be signed relatively cheap.

 

I think the players and league should be back at the bargaining table as soon as the WS ends. They need to come up with something other than 100% compensation if fans are not present. I could be wrong but it would seem logical that teams are going to be very conservative this off-season if an agreement for salary relief does not take place. Maybe teams will be confident we will be back to normal next year but I doubt it.

[LewFordLives]

If it comes down to May vs Rogers, I think you go with Rogers.

1. I think he has more upside potential,

2. He's left handed, and most importantly

3. He offers more financial flexibility.

 

If I'm May I'd want a multi-year deal. The Twins don't have to make that kind of commitment to Rogers.

[jun]

 

Relief pitching is a year to year proposition. Rogers had an off year.  Don't read a lot into it. I would try and resign May, but it may get too expensive.  Remember those playoff rosters had several ex Twin relievers on them, most in prominent roles.  Clipard and Romo should be gone, and the Twins need to find other options or give tryouts to some of their depth.  

Cruz is a great mentor and I think you try and resign him, do not know if I want to give 2 years and if the NL has the DH, he will get that.  It is probably going to run 14 with a least a second year option.

Rosario, I would guess they are gauging his value in a trade.  If all he can bring you is a B+ prospect or a couple of lottery tickets, you may have to non tender him.  There will be a lot of outfielders in his class that may well be non tendered.  Problem is he earns too much money for small market teams. so trading him with a Smeltzer or another pitcher for a better pitcher or prospect is difficult. Plus you have Kirloff who looks ready and Laurach who was big time clutch in college. You can send Cave with him, and use Wade as the 5th outfielder, with Rooker being 4.

Middle infield backup, maybe it is time to see what Gordon has, Lewis will be here by 2022 so Polonco may be the backup by that time. (or Traded). 5th MI can probably be found cheap on the open market.

Pitching I am comfortable with one of Dobnak or Thorpe filling one hole and seeing what the farm system brings for the second.  Do not mind Oderizzi, but will probably be out of our price range.  

Relief, you should be able to find some options between the minors and FA's.  Am not too worried here.

I would like to see May and Clippard come back. Clippard is consistent and he does not cost much. I am certainly not comfortable with Dobnak / Smeltzer/ Thorpe on the major league roster.

[TopGunn#22]

Great topic, great opinions.  I am mostly in chpettit19's corner, with a couple of changes.  I start with Cruz.  We haven't won a post season game in our last 18 tries.  Our offense seems to desert us come the post season.  Cruz was the ONLY hitter who showed up.  I HAVE TO HAVE HIM.  $10-$13 million-1year with a $10 million dollar 2nd year option.  He wants to be here...we need him.  Bring him back.  

 

Rosario is traded or DFA'd.  Sano is TRADED.  $10 million saved.  Someone will be intrigued by his power.  I have Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Rooker, Wade and maybe Cave in the Outfield.  Garver & Jeffers are my catchers.  Donaldson, Polanco and Arraez are 3B, SS, 2B.  I get Royce Lewis up here as my super utility guy.  Maybe he can play Winter Ball and play all over.  But the youth movement MUST begin.  Maeda, Berrios, Pineda and Dobnak are 4 starters.  I offer Rich Hill one more year at 2-3 million.  And then I pay $30-$35 million for Trevor Bauer.  The Twins CAN afford both Cruz and Bauer.  Kiriloff, Rooker, Lewis (and Larnach not too long after) need to be around Cruz and Donaldson.  it's more important to get them up to the show than risk another lost of limited minor league season.  I keep Rogers at $5-$6 million---He's much better than what he showed this year.  He'll be back.    All this could have a payroll of roughly $115-$120 million.  Start the youth movement.  Retain valuable vets.  In 2-years we will know if Buxton should be our CF or if Lewis supplants him.  If Kepler sticks and Kiriloff, Larnach and Rooker replace him.  If Polanco is our SS or if Lewis or Wander Javier or somebody else is.  And sometime in 2021 or 2022 Balazovic and Duran are knocking on the door.  The Braves and Dodgers, the Rays and White Sox ALL have young players ready to emerge if they haven't already.  We have to trust our young guys.

[DocBauer]

To re-state the obvious, and John did so wonderfully, we just don't know the finances are going to look like in 2021. We also don't know, and will probably never know, how much MLB lost as a whole in 2020, much less the Twins directly. Unfortunately, what we also don't know is anything on a team by team basis. Did large market teams lose less % wise due to TV and radio and merchandising deals? OR, can we safely assume a similar loss % across the board?

 

No matter what kind of dip we will undoubtedly see in FA offers, there will be a few key BIG signings, just as tbere every year. It's rather easy to speculate FA dollars/offers will be depressed, however, that depression fits right along with "anticipated" payroll cuts for most teams. Therefore, depressed offers only echo the shrunken payroll figures expected. What COULD influence less expensive offers, ergo VALUE to teams, is a flux of non-tendered players to saturate the market. Think the debate on a Rosario, for example. Good players teams may feel compelled to walk away from.

 

Since this FO has come on board, ownership has proven to be much more flexible and aggressive with spending. They haven't exactly been printing money, they are still frugal as a mkd-market must be so, but they haven't exactly been miserly either. While moves have been good bargains, they haven't been opposed to trades, 1yr contracts, extensions that make sense, laying out some coin to bring in or keep players or even eat a few dollars here and there. This team still has a wide open window of contention with players on hand, and some very nice talent rising up.

 

While it is my hope, all of ours I dare say, to at least remain status quo around $138-140M...if not bump to $150M which would put them about the ML mean for the past 2-3yrs...I think some sort of cutting will inevitably take place. I see, with my head and heart in complete agreement, they WILL NOT SLASH said budget. To do so would be self defeating for an organization coming off 2 of the best seasons in recent memory, if not history, of the Twins. I think a target of $125M is very safe and doable. I'd like to think they wouldn't balk at $130M...less than a 10% cut...if it made sense for the competitive team the FO wants to put in place.

 

One of the biggest problems...faced by almost every team, not just the Twins...is no milb season in 2020. But, of course, just focusing on the Twins, how much better does anyone feel about plugging in one of our top OF prosoects, or Gordon and Blankenhorn as utility options, or Duran/Balazovic/Chalmers as rotation pieces when all you bad was the taxi squad scenario thus far? I'm not opposed to promotion...and I don't think the staff is either...or trading a couple prosoects. But it sort of feels like you are betting against the odds or potentially selling low at this point.

 

Pushing the payroll envelope to $130M, a 6% cut, my back of the napkin scribbles have something like the following:

 

Cruz: 13M

Rogers: 6M

May: 4M

Clippard: 3M

Utility: 2M

Odorizzi: 12M

 

IF $130M is viable, I have $3M for a second utility player, or invest a little more in my primary option, maybe a cheap flier for the pen or rotation. Not much to work with, but you still have a really good team with some depth.

 

To me, it would really be hard to let May go. We're he a FA from another team, there would be a clamoring to bring his velocity and SO numbers on board. Odorizzi slots in beautifully with Pineda in the 3/4 spots to give us one of the best rotations we have had in ANY recent memory. And remember, he was set back by a stiff back, a shot to the chest and a bloody blister, NOT any serious injury. Cruz has been awesome at the plate and in the clubhouse. He is professional and keeps himself in great shape. A slump over the last couple of weeks due to a minor injury tweak should in no way indicate he is done. In fact, the 60 game season may have actually SAVED his body all the more for at least one more .900+ OPS season.

 

But to build the best and deepest team you can, it seems to me at least 1 of these guys has to go. Do we really let Nellie walk and try to find a cheaper option, or just rotate the DH spot? Then you have to potentially bring Rosario back for another year, right? Can you afford to let May walk and trust in Alcala and bank on Colina or Chalmers? (Hate to move both out of the rotation so early). And if not Odorizzi, then you have to trade some milb talent to bring in another SP. You have to find another Odorizzi or Maeda trade out there.

 

I've argued that just keeping Oddo made more sense to me than making a trade for a SP, whether it be 1yr or 3yrs. I still like that idea, but finances may not allow. I don't want to "sell" too early on prospects with no milb season to determine readiness, but Musgrove from Pittsburg, or similar, could make a ton of sense.

 

Maybe letting May walk makes sense and you keep everyone else and free up a few more $M. You have pen options and some good looking arms really close. Again, really hate to just "give up" on a couple of those arms as potential SP, but it may be prudent.

 

In addition to the enigmatic but popular and productive Rosario probably going, at LEAST ONE of the quality guys I've listed above, someone who meant a lot to the past 2 seasons, is going to have to go. Were you to twist my arm, or force me to watch a Yankee/Packer game, I'd change my thoughts on brining back Oddo and move a couple nice prospects for a controlled SP. Larnach and Enlow maybe? (Hurts)!

 

Next, I'd have to let May walk. I think it's a mistake that could haunt and bring regret. But at least there is some depth, talented young arms available, and the FO and Johnson seem to have an eye for talent.

 

Sorry, not sorry, for the long post. Just a lot to say. Sure hope it was relevant.

[DocBauer]

Just tossing this out there, I'm really surprised by how many people are wanting/projecting Lewis as part of the 2021 team. I think that is a lot of false hope at this point.

 

Don't get me wrong. I think he's super talented and has a nice future ahead of him. I don't hold a poor 2019 season with nagging injuries against him. Neither do the Twins as they promoted him once in '19 despite poor numbers. His great AFL MVP shows his potential. And I'm very pleased he was part of the St Paul taxi squad to continue to work on his game and develop. The FO was aggressive with Jeffers, and at least semi-aggressive with Rooker, Blankenhorn, Colina and Kirilloff late, even to just get their feet wet. Shows to me they believed enough in them to do so, plus opportunity/need was there.

 

I think there is a real and practical chance that Lewis appears in 2021 as a potential super utility fill in. And I am not dismissing his ability or future impact, even if his initial ML time is spent as said utility option. Remember Arraez's initial multi-position introduction in 2019? But NO WAY they rush him to a bench spot to begin 2021.

 

I really liked Ted's recent blog about utility options. He mentioned guys like Jrickson Profar and Asdrubal Cabrera as options to replace Marwin. (Still need a legit SS option on the cheap). We need someone like those guys for 2021 and let Lewis develop a little more.

[Linus]

I think payroll will be reduced substantially. No income from this year and next year highly questionable. Rosario will need to be non-tendered as he has no excess trade value. No way they waste money on Adrianza or Gonzales when Gordon can at least fill in partially. As for the other choices I have no idea other than you do need to start incorporating some of the prospects that are ready. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sano is dealt.

 

Anybody have buyers remorse on Josh Donaldson? I do.