Most Valuable Non-Prospect Offensive Trade Pieces

[Matthew Lenz]

Despite having one of baseball's best offenses, the Twins are averaging less than two runs per postseason game over the last two seasons. In 2020 a few players took a turn for the worse and with prospects waiting in the wings, now might be the time to move on from some of their big league regulars.More often than not we tie top prospects to big name trades because of their potential and years of team control remaining. According to Baseball Reference, the Twins had the 8th oldest line up in 2020 at an average age of 28.7 although the likes of Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez skew that a little. Sorting the Twins by at bats in 2020 shows that of the top 10 Cruz and Gonzalez, and Ehire Adrianza are the only players that are older than the average. Replacing Cruz’s 185 at-bats with a 25-year-old Brent Rooker and the Twins are all of a sudden the 8th youngest lineup in baseball. No, that’s not an exact science, but my point is that for having one of the best offenses in baseball the Twins are young.

 

In 2021 the team may try and retain Cruz, but I think we’ve seen the last of Gonzalez and Adrianza in Twins uniforms. This will leave room for either a couple of free agent additions or for a couple prospects to get semi-regular or more playing time. With Rooker, Alex Kiriloff, Trevor Larnach, and Royce Lewis all being legitimate candidates to play for the Twins in 2021 it may be time to make room for them in the Major League lineup rather than wait for a current starter to succumb to an injury. With a logjam in the outfield, I think the Twins will let Eddie Rosario walk...at this point we know Eddie’s ceiling which can be good but we also know his floor. If I’m the Twins I want to give an opportunity to one of the aforementioned prospects in 2021. That still leaves us with two more outfielders and another who could play the outfield if needed.

 

Though they may not be prospects anymore, the Twins have some young Major League starters who have years of team control left and are on team friendly deals. These are the top three most valuable non-prospect offensive players that I would consider trading over the offseason.

 

1. Max Kepler, 27, 4 years AAV $7MM + $10MM 5th year team option = 5 years, $7.6MM maximum

 

It didn’t take long for Max Kepler to establish himself as an everyday Major Leaguer and really breakthrough in 2019 having his best year as a pro. There’s no doubt that he struggled in 2020, specifically making solid contact, but how much does one weird season outweigh the two seasons previous where he produced a combined 7.1 fWAR? By the way, that would rank him as the 15th best outfielder in baseball. On the defensive side of the ball you have one of the best corner outfielders in the game, as well as someone who has shown the ability to play centerfield at an above average level. Combine this with an extremely cheap contract maxing out at $38MM over five-years, and you may have one of the most valuable Major League starters in all of baseball.

 

2. Jorge Polanco, 27, 4 years AAV $5.3MM + 10.5MM 5th year vested option + $12MM 6th year team option = 6 years, AAV $7.3MM maximum

 

We knew at the time of Polanco and Kepler contracts that they were very team friendly, but it’s surprising to see how truly team friendly they are when you consider their contributions to the lineup. Like Kepler, Polanco was another player who didn’t take long to establish himself at the Major League level. Like Kepler, he broke out with a bang in 2019. And like Kepler, he really struggled in 2020. Unlike Kepler, it was learned the day after the Twins lost game two against Houston that Polanco hadn’t really been healthy for a majority of the season. Back-to-back offseason ankle surgeries will definitely hurt his value a little bit, but that fifth year option only vests if he has 550 at-bats in year four. Furthermore, the fifth year can be bought out for just $1MM. Assuming this ankle surgery isn’t career altering, at worst a team is looking at a guy who could fill-in at 2B, SS, and 3B for just an average salary of $5.5MM. Not bad considering Marwin made more than double that in 2019 alone.

 

3. Luis Arraez, 24, 2 years of team control + 3 years of arbitration = 5 years maximum

 

I debated Buxton here but with his checkered injury history and only two years of arbitration remaining, I think Arraez carries more value on the trade market. Arraez unexpectedly broke onto the scene in 2019 in place of a struggling Jonathon Schoop and forced Twins Manager Rocco Baldelli to make him an everyday player. Unlike our previous two players, Arraez mostly picked up from where he left off in 2019. It took him a while to get going in 2020 but he ended the season slashing 0.321/0.364/0.402 while improving his defense immensely. Do I think the Twins will trade him? No. But you can’t deny the value a Major League caliber player has at just 24 years old with five more years of team control, including two of which will be for an AAV around $600K. On base guys with no power may not be the cool thing anymore, but putting a guy like that at the top of a lineup in front of a cool guy sounds enticing to me!

 

Do you think the Twins will make a big move this offseason? If so, does that move just come from free agency? Does it involve a prospect? Or does it involve someone that contributed in 2020 that isn’t on this list? If not, are you really comfortable with them standing pat after the up and down season this offense had in 2020?

 

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[TwinsFan268]

noooooooooo don't trade arraez!!!

 

But this is the kind of article I like to see. It doesn't say "throw away everything and start rebuilding" it says "trade a couple of pieces to make room for bright prospects"

[mikelink45]

Good speculation.  I really think Kepler would be my number one trade asset too, but how do other teams see him?  It is always tough to judge players by their value to others.  Looking at the young OFs in the playoffs I have a hard time seeing Kepler as an asset that will bring in a lot.  

 

Polanco could, but only if we think that Lewis is ready.  Otherwise a bounce back by Polanco makes him really valuable to us and others.

 

Arraez is one of my favorites, someone who gets on base, but his knee has me worried and I suspect would be a worry to others as well.

 

I would consider Sano, but 50% K rate might be hard to sell - if they got a good offer let him go.  I might even consider Donaldson if we can get a haul for him.

 

No one seems immune - it just depends upon the offer.  But to stand still would not be good. 

[rdehring]

The reasons you listed for trading this trio is the biggest reason why the Twins should keep them and build around them and Buxton.

 

There are others on this team who could also be traded should the FO be serious about opening a spot for one of the young studs or part of a package for a top pitcher.

 

 

[jmlease1]

Here's the problem with dealing any of these pieces: what are you getting in return? If the goal is to improve the offense, then you have a problem, because a) these are important contributors to the offense you have, and the team you're dealing them to is unlikely to be trading you back an upgrade at those positions...so what are you really doing?

 

We might be able to move Polanco/Arraez for an upgrade in the OF...but now we've got a hole in the INF that needs to get filled, and you've possibly blocked one of your top prospects, several of whom look ready to contribute.

 

If you move Kepler, then you really need to be confident that Kirilloff/Rooker/Larnach are ready to hold down an OF slot, might need to pay Rosario for another year (is that the best use of $10M?) or you might drive your offense down below where we were at this year.

 

We've got better odds of being able to deal any of these guys for pitching (maybe not the priority for once, but maybe worth it depending on who/what you get) or prospects (less attractive with a team that has playoff aspirations and guaranteed to anger the fan base).

 

Just not sure the trade market is the right fit for where the Twins are right now. We're probably long on MLB-quality OFs right now...but it seems likely a spot if coming open there anyway. We don't have a ready-made replacement in the middle INF: Lewis is almost certainly still a year away, especially after missing a developmental year, and Gordon hasn't been able to stay healthy the last two years (this year probably not his fault, but COVID wiped out his season to the point we took a flyer on Vargas; if he was anywhere ready to play, Gordon would have gotten the call).

 

With the money that's coming open (Odorizzi, Rosario, & Gonzalez coming off the books frees up $36M from where the payroll was projected for a full season; even accounting for some raises, the Twins have room to maneuver) I think you can add a veteran starter and cover yourself on a utility guy.

 

Some of the trade talk feels like change for change's sake. Not sure that gets us anywhere.

[4twinsJA]

Why trade away someone you are under paying? Keep them, then you can over pay for a key piece you are missing. Resign Cruz and/or add pitching. Seems pitching is the biggest question mark in Twins system.

[Trov]

 

Why trade away someone you are under paying? Keep them, then you can over pay for a key piece you are missing. Resign Cruz and/or add pitching. Seems pitching is the biggest question mark in Twins system.

You trade away someone you are underpaying if you feel you have a replacement ready to go.  The fact they are underpaid for a few years makes them more valuable to other teams and a wider range of teams.  I am not advocating for doing so, but the point is if you feel you have someone ready to step in, and their value is there then go for it.  Like, I wish we would have traded Garver in the offseason when he was peak value, knowing we had Jefferson.  Kepler and Polonco are both coming off of down years so their value may not be super high but at same time they have history of being MLB level player too. 

[PDX Twin]

I worry about trading Kepler/Rosario/Polanco for the latest incarnation of Matt Capps.

[Danchat]

 

I worry about trading Kepler/Rosario/Polanco for the latest incarnation of Matt Capps.

With Kepler and Polanco's contracts, the Twins would be getting back several players for them, and likely not a single veteran reliever. 

[MNT1996]

I'm actually in favor of trading Arraez. I want the Twins to go after LeMahieu and the Twins would need to free up the 2B spot for that to happen. 

[D.C Twins]

Planco the only possibility.... by why now for any of them? Why would you ever choose to trade at their lowest value?