Rebuild on the Fly? Analyzing Max Kepler's Future in Minnesota

[Nash Walker]

It’s understandable that some Twins fans are asking for radical changes to be made following yet another postseason failure. Is trading Max Kepler one that carries weight?The case against

 

Kepler signed a 5-year, $35 million extension following his solid but not spectacular 2018 season. The spectacular was fulfilled in 2019. Kepler blasted 36 home runs and 32 doubles while primarily leading off for the Twins, gearing his swing to pull the ball in the air with authority. Kepler received league MVP votes and Twins Daily voted him as the best Twin of 2019.

 

Kepler, like his teammate and friend Byron Buxton, is an incredible athlete. He ranks third among right fielders since 2018 in defensive fWAR (8.4), trailing only Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge. Kepler has a sweet left-handed swing. It’s aesthetically pleasing to watch him belt baseballs to right field.

 

Over the last three seasons, Kepler’s 8.0 bWAR is again only behind Betts and Judge among right fielders. Kepler is, by all accounts, a top three-to-five player at his position. He’s hit .246/.332/.499 over the last two seasons for an OPS+ of 119, firmly above league average.

 

Kepler is set to make only $21.75 million over the next three years with a $10 million club option for 2024. He’ll turn 32 following that season.

 

The case for

 

For all of the reasons above, Kepler would undoubtedly bring back significant pieces in a trade. He’s a really good outfielder in his prime with a team-friendly contract and four years of team control. The Twins could get back a heap of prospects or perhaps package Kepler to swing a deal for starting pitching (not that they need it as much as they did in 2019). This front office has repeatedly stressed “sustained success.” Is trading Kepler to improve the farm system contributing to sustained success? Or is losing a really good player counterproductive?

 

Of course, the most important factor is the dropoff for 2021. It’s true the Twins are flush with outfielders. Alex Kirilloff looks like he could man right field, Trevor Larnach is knocking at the door for another corner outfield spot, and Brent Rooker looked Major-League adept in his debut season. Jake Cave has an .807 OPS against right-handed pitching in his career, two points higher than Kepler. How much does moving Kepler hinder their ability to compete for another division title in 2021?

 

About that platoon...

 

Perhaps the most impressive part of Kepler’s 2019 was his adjustment against lefties. He had struggled for most of his career in those spots but rebounded to hit .293/.356/.524 against southpaws in 2019. Kepler went just 6-for-47 in those matchups in 2020.

 

As a result, Kepler’s overall batting line regressed to .228/.321/.439. His OPS+ remained above league average at 108. A platoon player is still much less valuable than one who can start every day.

 

Kepler’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate declined during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. As we can ask with most things this year, what does that really mean?

 

What do you think? Should the Twins shop Max Kepler?

 

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[mikelink45]

I am more Rosario, less Kepler which means I am out of line with most TD readers and writers, but Max is too hot and cold for me and if he can really bring back assets then Kiriloff and Larnach are fine.  I thought he was really disappointing this year.  

[jkcarew]

In one respect, you signed him so you CAN shop him. If you believe in your corner outfield prospects, you should be shopping him. Doesn’t mean you trade him. I’m not too worried about one bad short-sample year, but I’m not sure he’s a huge needle-mover, either.

[Nash Walker]

In one respect, you signed him so you CAN shop him. If you believe in your corner outfield prospects, you should be shopping him. Doesn’t mean you trade him. I’m not too worried about one bad short-sample year, but I’m not sure he’s a huge needle-mover, either.

“Over the last three seasons, Kepler’s 8.0 bWAR is again only behind Betts and Judge among right fielders. Kepler is, by all accounts, a top three-to-five player at his position. He’s hit .246/.332/.499 over the last two seasons for an OPS+ of 119, firmly above league average.”

 

The presumption that Kepler wouldn’t bring back significant pieces baffles me.

[MNT1996]

I'm learning towards the "case for" camp. He has a career OPS of .763 and a career BA of .237. I would bet good money that Larnach and Kirilloff will have better numbers than those. I say give Kepler one more year so that Larnach and/or Kirilloff can find their stride and then trade him. Hopefully Max has a decent season in 2021 so the Twins can sell high. 

[DocBauer]

I will not yet again talk about Kepler being only 27 and rushed a bit, nor his starting out a good year behind HS prospects in the US when signed. I am also willing to dismiss the ball used in 2019 as well as dismissing 2020 for Kepler and just about anyone on the Twins and anyone in MLB. Just a weird and crazy season! Numbers prove it.

 

He is a great athlete, though he doesn't exactly have the speed of a Buxton. (Who does)? He has a sweet stroke. He has a good eye. He has legit 20-30HR power. He should be a legit 30+ doubles hitter with a few triples tossed in.

 

He's also a tremendous RF defensively who can cover CF just fine on occasion.

 

But what is missing? One thing. His ability to "control" his bat and "spray" his hits. At various times, he has shown the ability to hit LH pitching. His power is real. But he needs someone to work with him and just learn how to make contact and hit the ball where you can. Inside out, knock it in to LF. He is a perfect example where "old school" thinking and approach actually works. Someone teaches him how to spray the ball and go the other way once in a while instead of looking to pull everything, you suddenly have him at the next level.

 

He might "slump" to 25HR instead of 35, but doubles may increase along with BA. And his whole OPS may end up being as good or better than 2019.

 

Really hoping this is what happens and he slides down to a #5-6 slot in the order for 2021. POTENTIALLY, I still don't believe we've seen the best of what Max càn be. Up to him as well as the coaching staff.

[GNess]

Teams focused on winning consistently and winning championships in almost every sport deal from positions of strength. They are typically bold, make sound evaluations of talent, and don't hold on to players past their trade-worthy shelf-life unless they are completely vital to the core of the team. Based on that logic such that it is, of course the Twins should consider moving Kepler. 

 

There are many, many examples - one that might hit a chord is the Dodgers trading Kenta Maeda to the Twins!

[yeahyabetcha]

If the Twins can get off the focus of the only hitting homeruns offensive strategy and Max hits 270 with 15-20 homer's, plays a very good right field and a passable center field (Buxton is gonna miss time), then they should keep him

[TwinsFan268]

Okay, why does everyone think the Twins need to rebuild? They still have most of the pieces for a very good team and Cruz WANTS to re-sign with them. I know, I know, these players can't play in the playoffs but we can teach them. We can teach them how to become the best players they can in the playoffs. Maybe they need us there. Let's not forget that they had the best winning percentage at home EVER in 2020 and they weren't bad on the road. Let's go at this like we did last year, just trying to re-sign pitching, and maybe add a couple bats, hopefully with postseason experience. Sorry if this was a rant, but I like the Twins team they have here and I want them to stick with it.

[Darius]

“Over the last three seasons, Kepler’s 8.0 bWAR is again only behind Betts and Judge among right fielders. Kepler is, by all accounts, a top three-to-five player at his position. He’s hit .246/.332/.499 over the last two seasons for an OPS+ of 119, firmly above league average.”

 

The presumption that Kepler wouldn’t bring back significant pieces baffles me.

Well, you can cherry pick a stat like that, quote it as gospel, and be baffled all you want. Doesn’t make it reality.

 

Why 3 years? He’s played significant time since 2016. In which, he’s OPS’d over .750 twice, one of those being .760 in 2020. Career OPS of .763. For reference, Jacque Jones has a career OPS of .775. I don’t think anyone has ever compared Jacque Jones (a good defensive outfielder) to Mookie Betts or thought he’d bring back a haul of prospects.

 

The 2019 season could be seen as similar to Mauer’s power binge in his MVP year that was never replicated - not even close - which created a slugging percentage for Kepler that is nearly 100 points higher than he’s produced in any of his other 4 seasons seasons with significant playing time. Kepler has never hit more than 20 HRs in any other season, and was on pace to end up in the 20-25 range again this year over a full schedule.

 

If you want to think the 2019 Max Kepler is the real Max Kepler, that’s just a hope or wish (which there is nothing wrong with, but certainly shouldn’t be lecturing others with one cherry picked stat in that case). In reality, that could/should be seen as a statistical outlier and removed from the population to arrive at the true probable outcome going forward. There is zero hard evidence to suggest it’ll be repeated, or the norm, going forward.

 

I just don’t see anyone giving a haul for one above average offensive season (and by haul, I mean high-end pitching prospects a year or two out - I’m not sure how returning a couple of more position player prospects, or 17 years olds, would help anything).

 

The defense can’t be argued, but who in their right mind is paying a premium for right field defense? That’s the major driver behind his bWAR.

 

Also, throwing him in the conversation with Judge and Betts over the last three years is a little liberal. Without the time to research, I would guess Betts doubled up Kepler in bWAR. Judge is probably significantly higher, even with a bunch of time missed for injury.

 

Could they get a decent return? Sure. But I don’t think they’d get anywhere in the neighborhood of what it seems like you’re assuming.

 

Kepler is a good player. The shared German connections make him one of my favorite players of all time. He is by no means a superstar. He’s not even our best outfielder (Buxton, and one could argue Rosario has been much more consistent offensively with a career OPS more than 20 points higher).

 

The condescending attitude of thinking anyone who disagrees with you must just be “presuming” while you’re bringing the science should be reconsidered.

[rdehring]

What happens to Max's power totals for this crazy, short year if the Reds had started Trevor Bauer in one of their three games this season? 

 

As crazy as my above comment is, this season was equally crazy. Other than the pain from going two and out again, let's put the entire year behind us and forget it.

 

I believe Max was becoming the player he can be in 2019 and the best is yet to come. I honestly believe he has the potential to be very good for the next ten plus years, so good he could someday be considered for the HOF. So for me, he is as close to untouchable as any Twin should be.

 

I also believe that of the three young studs coming up, Rooker, Kirilloff and Larnach, Kirilloff is going to be special. But you don't need to trade away Kepler, or Rosario, to get him onto the diamond at Target Field.

 

If anyone gets moved, put Kirilloff at first base and trade your K man in every other at bat. Watched most of the Rays game against that team from New York last night. Wow, that is an exciting team to watch. Sure made me question my thoughts all year that our bullpen was as good as any...not.

 

Do have a question for the guys at TD. Could someone do a position by position comparison between the Rays starting 9 and the Twins? How many of the Rays starters would start if they were on the Twins. Yet, they are headed to the League championship series and sure looks like a favorite to me.

[Darius]

Okay, why does everyone think the Twins need to rebuild? They still have most of the pieces for a very good team and Cruz WANTS to re-sign with them. I know, I know, these players can't play in the playoffs but we can teach them. We can teach them how to become the best players they can in the playoffs. Maybe they need us there. Let's not forget that they had the best winning percentage at home EVER in 2020 and they weren't bad on the road. Let's go at this like we did last year, just trying to re-sign pitching, and maybe add a couple bats, hopefully with postseason experience. Sorry if this was a rant, but I like the Twins team they have here and I want them to stick with it.

Because they just threw everything they had at this season. Spent money like they never have before. Traded a top pitching prospect for a starting pitcher. Things they’ve historically never done.

 

They still got their rear ends kicked out of the playoffs. It wasn’t even close.

 

I’ll be shocked if they make any significant moves to supplement this roster, especially if Cruz returns. I’d be surprised if Nelson Cruz keeps hitting at this pace. Father Time is undefeated. No reasonably competent position player on the roster can stay healthy.

 

I don’t agree that you can “teach” these players to show up in the playoffs. That’s just determination and fortitude. It’s inside you, and you have it or you don’t. It has nothing to with baseball skills, they’re clearly good baseball players, but they fold when it matters. It doesn’t make them bad people, they’re just not going to win a championship as a group....and that’s the whole point of this thing.

 

Why keep wasting time. Life is short. I’m guessing most of us already suffered through the ‘01-‘10. I don’t want to watch a middling team get crushed in the playoffs for 8 more years, then suffer through another 5 year rebuild before finally arriving at another opportunity to repeat the process. Get to work now.

[Doctor Gast]

I heard that Garver`s problem was that his  head was not in the right place & this year many player`s head weren`t in the right place. Before the season started there was a scandal about him innocently wearing the wrong mask. Something like that could easily mess w/ some one like Kepler. Hope next year his life would be less chaotic & more productive. Kepler has a lot of talent which can excel on both offensively & defensively trading him would be a big mistake. I`m not glad that this year finished early but glad it`s over. Canceling the AFL this is another stab in the heart

[stringer bell]

I am puzzled by Kepler's inability to hit for a higher average. As noted, he has a great natural swing, decent eye at the plate, strikes out relatively little and has good power. I see Kepler go through slumps where he continually hits popups and grounders into the shift. 

 

Could he be looking too much to drive the ball and not enough to hit line drives to the alleys? I don't know. The other thing is hitting against left handed pitchers. He was better against them than right handers in his fine 2019 season, but this year was dreadful in a small sample. 

 

There's a lot to like about Kepler's game and even in an off season for him he posted a 108 OPS+ and (full season adjusted) 2.2 WAR. At a still-young age, I think the Twins should hang on to the reasonably priced right fielder. 

 

I also think that Kepler should work on bunting against the shift, both down the third base line and past the pitcher (especially lefties who fall off toward third base). If he can "shorten up" the second baseman and perhaps move the the third baseman and shortstop closer to "normal" position, I think he could lift his OBP and batting average quite a bit.

[h2oface]

Everyone under contract for the coming season is a great $ value (other than perhaps Donaldson). Nothing needs to be done in regards to moving any of them. Not Kepler. Not Sano. Not Palanco. Not Maeda. Not Berrios. Not Arraez. Not Buxton. Not Garver. The prospects will either push them out, or they won't. To assume they will is crazy. Make them. This could happen next spring. Injuries will force them into a roll and they might not give it back, or they will.

 

Add professional MLB players by trading prospects, and ok to add regulars if it improves the team, and not just stocks more prospects in the minors (which didn't even play this year), or sign free agents to improve the team. But to assume that this was anything other that the weirdest season ever with a stop/starting beginning and a short sprint to the finish that mostly 20 somethings had to deal with, and how it affected them each uniquely, is crazy. Sure, improve the team. Spend. Sign an ace. Or two. But this is not a desperate time. Kepler and others are not done. This is a very strange time. Maybe a good time to see if you can get Yelich. He really sucked too. Do you think he is toast? I don't.

[rv78]

Yelich is a career .296 hitter. So, yes his .205 season this year is an anomaly and he will probably spring back next season due to a full 162 game schedule. Kepler is a career .237 hitter so his .228 season this year is right on par with his usual. To suggest it is a down season is false. Instead it is what can be expected. I would love to see him traded for an upgrade at any position. Package him with K-Sano and take what you can get. Rooker and Kirilloff can perform as well or BETTER than a .237 hitter and the strikeout King.

 

[ashbury]

Yelich is a career .296 hitter. So, yes his .205 season this year is an anomaly and he will probably spring back next season due to a full 162 game schedule. Kepler is a career .237 hitter so his .228 season this year is right on par with his usual. To suggest it is a down season is false.

I want with all my heart to disagree with you, and it is pretty clearly the case that his was a "down season" relative to 2019. But it could indeed be that Max had his career year at age 26. He wouldn't be the first or only to do that. I wish I was a better fundamental talent evaluator to feel confidence that he can return to 2019 levels on a reliable basis.

 

(I feel old: Joe Charboneau turned 65 this year.)

 

[jmlease1]

well, there definitely seems to be an increasing preference on this board for players who hit for a higher BA. People here seem to be tired of K's and want more singles. Sano has been coming under fire for this all season (and last season), so now I guess it's Kepler's turn in the barrel.

 

I'm not in favor of moving Kepler, especially because I think it's unlikely that Rosario is back next year. So I'm not excited about the idea of turning over the corner OF spots to two relatively untested players, no matter who they are. I'll feel better if one of those spots is commandeered by a rookie with two veterans next to them. Or do people think that dealing Kepler gets them back a starting RF or LF? (A player like this doesn't go into a challenge deal, IMHO. They'd be mostly likely dealing for pitching, and or prospects. Maybe an upgrade in the INF, but again: not a lot of room to add there without bumping or trading someone else out, so it's complicated.)

 

Kepler's an elite defender in RF who is respectable in CF as needed. His contract is team-friendly. He's got some pop in his bat and an ability to get on base; despite the low BA he's had a better OBP than Rosario the last two seasons and has a higher one overall for their respective careers. (Rosario did have 2 seasons where he did better than Kepler in terms of getting on base in '17 & '18 but hasn't been able to match those since)

 

I don't know which is more likely to be the fluky season, '19 or '20; '19 had the juiced baseball, '20 has the messed up pandemic deal (and more games missed for injury as a % of the season).  But regardless, Kepler is a quality starter in MLB at a good price, and you don't toss that away casually. He looks like a player who is all-star quality in a good year and solid starter in a bad year and that makes for a good cornerstone for a franchise that's been winning big the last two seasons.

 

The playoffs haven't gone out way the last two years but a) that's small sample size stuff, and moving on from Kepler isn't likely to improve the odds of playoff success significantly.

 

I'm also amused at the people throwing Rooker's name into this when complaining about K's; have you not followed his career? Don't be fooled by 21 ABs in MLB; he's almost certainly not going to be a .300 hitter. going into the season the ceiling on him was Adam Dunn. I like Rooker and think he can be valuable, but let's not pretend he's not going to strike out a ton if he gets a full season of ABs against MLB pitching.

[Major League Ready]

 

I am puzzled by Kepler's inability to hit for a higher average. As noted, he has a great natural swing, decent eye at the plate, strikes out relatively little and has good power. I see Kepler go through slumps where he continually hits popups and grounders into the shift. 

 

Could he be looking too much to drive the ball and not enough to hit line drives to the alleys? I don't know. The other thing is hitting against left handed pitchers. He was better against them than right handers in his fine 2019 season, but this year was dreadful in a small sample. 

 

There's a lot to like about Kepler's game and even in an off season for him he posted a 108 OPS+ and (full season adjusted) 2.2 WAR. At a still-young age, I think the Twins should hang on to the reasonably priced right fielder. 

 

I also think that Kepler should work on bunting against the shift, both down the third base line and past the pitcher (especially lefties who fall off toward third base). If he can "shorten up" the second baseman and perhaps move the the third baseman and shortstop closer to "normal" position, I think he could lift his OBP and batting average quite a bit.

 

I am not puzzled by Max's low BA. It's a lot harder to get hits when you constantly hit into 4 infielders on one side of the diamond. Of course, you addressed the cure. A few hard bunts down the 3rd base line would take teams out of the shift or at least take one less guy away from the right side.

 

A lot of players had really bad years with the chaos of Covid. I want to see Max in 2021. It makes sense to keep him here while we audition Rooker / Kirilloff and Larnach. He would still have 3 years of a team friendly deal. If he rebounds to somewhere near 2019 numbers he is a great team asset or trade asset going forward.

[jkcarew]

 

“Over the last three seasons, Kepler’s 8.0 bWAR is again only behind Betts and Judge among right fielders. Kepler is, by all accounts, a top three-to-five player at his position. He’s hit .246/.332/.499 over the last two seasons for an OPS+ of 119, firmly above league average.”

The presumption that Kepler wouldn’t bring back significant pieces baffles me.

Huh!? Did I say anything even close to that in my post? No.

 

What I said is, shop him. If someone is in love with his bWAR and/or 119 OPS+ and offers 'significant pieces'...great. I wouldn't be surprised. But, I might be inclined to take the significant pieces...assuming one thinks one or more of the corner outfield prospects is also going to be at least "firmly above league average". My feeling is Kepler's bWAR going back to 2018 is inflated by the turns he took catching other's fly balls in center field for Buxton. Meanwhile, the OPS+ of 119 has value, but isn't anything near elite for a corner outfielder.