A Day in the Life of the Only Twins Daily Writer Who Wants to Keep Eddie Rosario

[Major League Ready]

 

Somehow you missed Eddie’s much better plate discipline and an OBP 59 points higher than BA. He had a decent amount of walks for a shortened season.

 

I did not assemble the data.  It came from Fangraphs. 

[Major League Ready]

 

I would emphatically recommend keeping Rosario. He’s clocking 30+ homers a year (pro-rated as mentioned in an above post) and led the team in RBIs for each of the last two seasons. More than Nelson Cruz. Some SABR fans knock RBIs but that has been one of the most important statistics  in the history of baseball in the U.S. which goes back to the New York Knickerbockers in the 1850s.

 

The SABR statistics are only a recent phenomenon and may not last. WAR seems to be calculated multiple ways and IMO subtracts too much for defense when measurement of defense purely by a statistic is dubious. And FIP, that stat just seems to be consistently off, often by a large amount...I’d rather go with the true ERA.

 

Anyway, after the foul ball fiasco (Justin Morneau, Dick Bremer and Eddie Rosario didn’t know that ground rule), I saw a Rosario that made all the plays he needed to make and yes, threw another man out at the plate. Counting all the runners that stay at 1st or stay at 3rd due to Rosario’s arm-how is that quantified in WAR?

 

Plus Eddie plays with fire, wants to win and that can’t help but rub off on his teammates. What’s the stat for that? 

 

I’d say Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz were the two most valuable hitters on the Twins in 2020 when many stars around the league struggled, ostensibly due to shortened summer camp.

 

My opinion is that Eddie Rosario is very talented, a better player than Kepler and arguably more valuable than Buxton due to Buxton’s large body of missed playing time. That would make him the out fielder to build around for 2021. Rosario, Buxton and Kirilloff in the outfield with Rooker playing a lot too. Plus go get a MLB ready center fielder as insurance for Buxton. If they don’t do that, it could cost many games playing a Cave type player.

 

I sum, Eddie has had two very good seasons in a row, greatly corrected his chasing problem and may have a much higher ceiling and become a bonafide star. The Twins need to keep him for the very reasonable salary.

 

Apparently, the new call is that stats lie or don't matter, at least if you don't like what they reveal. Going back to 7/1/18 to give the rough equivalent of two seasons given the shortened season this year, Rosario's WAR is 2.2. Kepler's is 7. He was in the bottom 5% this year in terms of chase rate. 

 

 

Rosario ranks 35th in OPS among corner outfielders this year. One spot behind Robbie Grossman. I disagree he has greatly corrected his chasing problem. I would say his approach has gone from horrid to very bad.  The stats would suggest whatever improvement he has made has done little to improve his OPS. I would prefer to give the job to Rooker and allocate the money to starting pitching or a utility player.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Nice work. Illustrates that there are few easy choices. Do we keep a known quantity who may yet do better or roll the dice on another starter or platoon?

[IndianaTwin]

 

Yeah, and I question it in the 9 to noon range too! 

 

Clearly Renabanena’s immediate supervisor and the company HR director are on Twins Daily. 

[annismark]

 

1] There is some weird misconception about RBI with modern day analytics that I don't get. You want to score mkre runs than the other team. That's how you win. There is some misconception that I just don't understand that seems to state ANY decent hitter with power should be able to knock in runs if he has anyone on base in front of him. Really? Is it that simple? You tell me.

I remember YEARS ago now when a younger Manny Ramirez didn't want to hit cleanup for the Indians because he didn't feel ready and didn't want the pressure. He enjoyed hitting and producing lower in the lineup. As I recall back then, he often hit 6-7. Of course, he grew and adapted and became a tremdous player.

So by the "anyone with power and hit ability with opportunity" mantra, Kepler should just slide in to that spot. Or maybe Kepler as a rookie. Why not? They have hit ability and power.

Look, I'm NOT saying Rosario is any kind of future HOF hitter. But he has produced. If ANYONE could be trusted to produce RBI, then managers woukd take 3-4 names, put them in a cap, and let someone draw out the heart of the lineup. SOMEONE here at TD had an amazing article after last season where some expert posted RBI success ratio over a full season and Rosario was near the top, despite his 2nd half lull. (I really wish someone could find that).

Rosario is a proven RBI producer. Sometimes, he produces in a way that leaves you almost speechless! He has had moments that I believe only Puckett and Oliva could have ever produced.

I laugh when people talk about RBI being a disposable stat.

 

Last 2 years Batting averages with RISP

Rosario .340/.353

Sano .245/.219

Kepler .309/.273

Cruz  .368/.333

[stringer bell]

I'm conflicted about Rosario. I don't think he'll ever be better than he is now and that he might not age well, however Baldelli has almost always kept him in the middle of the lineup. Rocco did the same with Polanco, batting him at the top or in the middle, but when he slumped he moved Jorge down in the order, that has not happened with Eddie. If the manager consistently regards Rosario as one of his top offensive guys, does it make sense to let him go, particularly as a non-tender?

 

I have thought that the club needs to make room for the many corner outfield prospects who are near ready, if not totally ready to step in. Further complicating this is the nearly lost season of development with no minor league season. 25 plate appearances for Rooker and Kirilloff don't give enough information about their readiness. 

 

The one certainty is that arbitration-eligible Rosario would cost considerably more than an organizational replacement. If resources are limited, is this the place to save?

[VINMANCT]

This has nothing to do with Eddie not being a good player. It's the complete opposite. The fact that he is good player makes him a great trade piece. Actually, the biggest reason is that we have at least 2 young stars that must get in the lineup, Kiriloff and Larnach. I've really enjoyed and appreciated Eddie, unpredictability and all, but it will be nice to have a young,more consistent contact hitter in left. I have no doubt Kiriloff can be a .300/25/85 hitter next year, even in the #7 spot. I'd trade Eddie for Mudgrove and a prospect, while we still can.

[ashbury]

This has nothing to do with Eddie not being a good player. It's the complete opposite. The fact that he is good player makes him a great trade piece. Actually, the biggest reason is that we have at least 2 young stars that must get in the lineup, Kiriloff and Larnach. I've really enjoyed and appreciated Eddie, unpredictability and all, but it will be nice to have a young,more consistent contact hitter in left. I have no doubt Kiriloff can be a .300/25/85 hitter next year, even in the #7 spot. I'd trade Eddie for Mudgrove and a prospect, while we still can.

Pay a visit to https://www.baseballtradevalues.com and experiment with their trade simulator using Twins and Pirates as the teams. Musgrove is a high-value guy and Eddie Rosario just isn't. Would you consider a Kepler-for-Musgrove trade instead?

 

[PopRiveter]

Saw the opening day lineup and my feelings of loss were slightly tempered when I saw Arraez name in LF. Not the name I loved the most, but I do care about Arraez.

 

Couldn't help but wonder how many games it would take for Donaldson to pull up lame and make Arraez shift forward to 3rd so I could resume my pain over losing Rosario in LF.

 

Good 'ol reliable Josh Donaldson kept me in suspense for over 1/2 inning before breaking down. 

 

A: I should've felt bad for the guy, but instead, I flashed back to this article and thought how much more I would love the Twins if (entering 2020) they'd just committed to keeping Eddie Rosario rather than acquiring JD.

 

B: I will read everything Renabanena writes and will heartily enjoy it.