A Day in the Life of the Only Twins Daily Writer Who Wants to Keep Eddie Rosario

[renabanena]

One topic on everyone’s minds this offseason whether the Twins should offload Eddie Rosario before his 2021 free agency. Although Rosario has shown patience at the plate, many fans’ patience is wearing thin. As the last standing Twins Daily writer who doesn’t want to phase out Rosario, I wanted to show the readers a rare glimpse into a day in my life.7:00 am - Wake up

 

7:01 am - Roll over and immediately grab my phone

 

7:02 am - Invigorate my morning with the video of Eddie Rosario’s throw to tag out Rafael Devers at home plate in 2019

 

 

7:03 am - Realize that Eddie Rosario’s strikeout to walk ratio (SO/W) has significantly decreased from 2019, from 3.91 to 1.79. Despite the small sample size, he would’ve needed to increase his ratio by three times for the remaining 102 games to finish out the season at a higher SO/W ratio than in 2019.

 

7:05 am - As I start to wake up, my stomach grumbles in pain, and I start to think about skipping my daily workout with this excuse. This makes me wonder how to quantify health and playing time as a legitimate player's statistic. Eddie Rosario only missed three games all season in 2020. After 2016, he’s never played less than 137 games in a season. With injuries playing such a large role in many team’s struggles, including the Twins’, playing time cannot be overlooked.

 

7:15 am - 8:45 am - Workout

 

9:00 am - 12:00 pm - Do my job and not think about Eddie Rosario

 

12:01 pm - 12:30 pm - Eat my salad and ruminate on how Eddie Rosario compares to other hitters. Although his exit velocity of 82.2 mph and hard hit rate of 30.3% leave much to be desired, Rosario’s SLG percentage of .476 and wOBA of .347 are still far above league average.

 

Other notable hitters around the league with similarly concerning exit velocities are Whit Merrifield (86.1 mph), Kris Bryant (86.1 mph), and Edwin Encarnacion (85.4 mph). Similarly, notable players around the league with low hard hit rates include White Merrifield (27.3%), Jeff McNeil (26.5%), and Charlie Blackmon (29.7%).

 

12:31 pm - 5:00 pm - Continue to do my job and not think about Eddie Rosario

 

5:10 pm - 6:00 pm - Walk my daily loop around my neighborhood while listening to the Twins Daily podcast

 

6:30 pm - Eat dinner and ponder about Rosario’s six seasons so far with the Twins. In the past years, fans have seen up and downs with their team and their left fielder. Overall, fans have seen improvement from Rosario, although there are still missing gaps from bad defensive plays to questionable base running. Rosario hit a home run in his very first at-bat as a Twin, and one of his most endearing qualities is hitting the most questionable balls out of the zone, out of the park. How do you quantify the importance of a player outside of his statistics and analytics?

 

At the end of the day, he’s been a core, everyday player who has ridden the wave of the worst Twins’ seasons to some of their most memorable recent moments. Season and players have come and gone, but Rosario has stayed put.

 

 

6:45 pm - 10:45 pm - Melt into my couch

 

11:00 pm - Turn off the lights and think about the next day and hope that Twins fans will also see a next day with Eddie Rosario on the team

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[Otwins]

I am with you. If we get rid of Rosario we are not a better team.  The chances that any of Larnach, Kiriloff or Rooker are as good as Rosario next year is low. This team should be in win now mode. Nelson Cruz is not getting any younger

[theBOMisthebomb]

Advanced stats are great and all, apparently they are not Eddie's friend (which I don't understand completely). Anyway, Eddie hit 32 bombas in 2019 and 13 in a 60 game 2020 season (which projects out to 35 in a complete season). It is going to be 2-3 seasons before a replacement from the farm puts up 30+ home runs. Eddie's defense is better than the detractors point out after looking at the UZR and DRS stats on Fangrapghs. I would keep Eddie on my squad.

[Nick Nelson]

This is legit one of the most creative and hilarious pieces I've ever read on this site. Amazing work.

I'm skeptical of Eddie never entering your mind during the 12:31-5:00 block. 

[Squirrel]

I <3 Rosie ... and that’s all I have to say on that

[nclahammer]

Eddie has been in the line-up more consistently than any other outfielder the Twins have had over the past 5-6 years.  He's my favorite Twin (has been since his Beloit days) and while he does have moments that drive you crazy with lapses of brain flatulence, I love his bat, throwing arm, and enthusiasm in Minnesota's line-up.

[Major League Ready]

 

One topic on everyone’s minds this offseason whether the Twins should offload Eddie Rosario before his 2021 free agency. Although Rosario has shown patience at the plate, many fans’ patience is wearing thin. 

 

Rosario ranked 257 of 267 players with 120 ABs this year. He went from absurdly undisciplined to the bottom 5% of the league. It's maddening because he could be one of the best offense players. It's not just swinging outside the zone. He developed a little bit of discipline early in the count but then he swings at terrible pitches when he does get ahead. There is just no reason for pitchers to throw him anything decent.

[Danchat]

Rosario ranked 257 of 267 players with 120 ABs this year. He went from absurdly undisciplined to the bottom 5% of the league. It's maddening because he could be one of the best offense players. It's not just swinging outside the zone. He developed a little bit of discipline early in the count but then he swings at terrible pitches when he does get ahead. There is just no reason for pitchers to throw him anything decent.

He had 210 ABs this year...

[Trov]

I have always liked Eddie and felt he was undervalued when he first came up.  He has always loved the spotlight.  He also has made head scratching plays in field and on bases, trying to do the spectacular too much.  

 

I am impressed with his walk rate increasing this year.  However, it did not increase in his overall output.  His average was lower, making his OBP. and Slugging, both lower than previous years, despite being on a similar HR pace over full season.  What made people not like him over the years, his chase rate, was what led to some of those extra base hits and lower walks.  I would want to go back to see how often he walked with no one on versus when runners were on.  

 

The old saying, "a walk is as good as a hit," is not accurate.  It is same as a bases empty single, else a hit is always better than a walk.  So to increase walks by decreasing hits is not a good exchange.  The question really is, did he stop being aggressive on pitches he normally would have got hits on in efforts to walk more?  If he did that is bad trade off.  

 

That being said, I would support keeping him, but will fully understand releasing him based on his expected salary.  If he can show that is new found patience at plate would increase his other numbers I would want him to return even more, but fact is that did not change his overall output for the team, it only fixed one aspect, but hurt or did not help others.  The assumption many made, I was not one of them, was if he started walking more and chasing less, he would have overall better output.  However, that was not the case.

 

Why you may ask, and why I was not one clamoring for him to take more walks and chase less?  He would get hits on balls out the zone many times, and he would foul off the balls out the zone, because despite chasing balls out of zone at high clip, he made high contact on them.  So he was hard to pitch too really, because you would think pitch out of zone he will chase, but he would not miss that often, and at times get hits or at least extend at-bat for a different pitch.

 

Now he takes the pitch and the walk, taking away his chance at a hit.  To make things worse, if he was not crushing pitches he did swing at, which appears his numbers were similar, reducing the swings really just reduced chance of driving in runs when runners were on base.  He took away his aggression, which did not have the results intended.  Can he still take walks and get hits when pitches are thrown in zones to drive?  Yes, but he needs to work on that next.  The eye was first, now harnessing how to make pitchers pay when thrown in the zone is next, but I fear he will not do that.

[twinfan]

I would rather keep Eddie as well and have said so. I'd rather get rid of Sano. But the Twins have to get Kiriloff in the lineup next year so one of the outfielders may have to go, become a DH or get benched. Of course, we would be lefty heavy out there so somebody will have to sit vs a southpaw. I guess we'll see how it plays out.

[rdehring]

Love Eddie and would be happy should the Twins extend him and he remains a Twin. With that said, understand the need/desire to open a spot(s) for Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach.

 

With a desire to find at least one of those at the beginning of next year, will be curious to see what the Twins do. Truth is they can probably create a spot by keeping one of their most exciting players (most exciting when Buxton is not in the lineup)...IMO.

[gunnarthor]

Love Eddie but the FO doesn't have the payroll. We have to hope that this FO can change a nucleus of players and stay competitive like the Twins managed to do in the 2000s. 

[Major League Ready]

 

He had 210 ABs this year...

 

I used players with 120 ABs to gather a larger sample size. If you prefer using 180 Abs he was 152nd out out of 157.

[Greglw3]

I would emphatically recommend keeping Rosario. He’s clocking 30+ homers a year (pro-rated as mentioned in an above post) and led the team in RBIs for each of the last two seasons. More than Nelson Cruz. Some SABR fans knock RBIs but that has been one of the most important statistics  in the history of baseball in the U.S. which goes back to the New York Knickerbockers in the 1850s.

 

The SABR statistics are only a recent phenomenon and may not last. WAR seems to be calculated multiple ways and IMO subtracts too much for defense when measurement of defense purely by a statistic is dubious. And FIP, that stat just seems to be consistently off, often by a large amount...I’d rather go with the true ERA.

 

Anyway, after the foul ball fiasco (Justin Morneau, Dick Bremer and Eddie Rosario didn’t know that ground rule), I saw a Rosario that made all the plays he needed to make and yes, threw another man out at the plate. Counting all the runners that stay at 1st or stay at 3rd due to Rosario’s arm-how is that quantified in WAR?

 

Plus Eddie plays with fire, wants to win and that can’t help but rub off on his teammates. What’s the stat for that? 

 

I’d say Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz were the two most valuable hitters on the Twins in 2020 when many stars around the league struggled, ostensibly due to shortened summer camp.

 

My opinion is that Eddie Rosario is very talented, a better player than Kepler and arguably more valuable than Buxton due to Buxton’s large body of missed playing time. That would make him the out fielder to build around for 2021. Rosario, Buxton and Kirilloff in the outfield with Rooker playing a lot too. Plus go get a MLB ready center fielder as insurance for Buxton. If they don’t do that, it could cost many games playing a Cave type player.

 

I sum, Eddie has had two very good seasons in a row, greatly corrected his chasing problem and may have a much higher ceiling and become a bonafide star. The Twins need to keep him for the very reasonable salary.

[Ginsamax]

While I understand that Rosario can be very frustrating, he has probably been our best player over the last 5 years. With his free agency looming and the glut of OF prospects, I do understand the motivation for moving on. I think that we will miss his consistent performance, team leadership and exciting play. For every bone headed play that he makes, he does something that is literally jaw dropping (hitting a walk off home run from one knee or throwing somebody out from 300+ feet among other examples). 

 

I think that if you need to trade someone, Kepler would be just as good of an option. He, unlike Rosario, has basically only had 1 and a half good seasons. Buxton, as much as I love him, has never really put it together for a full season. If it were me, I would keep them all and see how next year shakes out.

[chpettit19]

 

I would emphatically recommend keeping Rosario. He’s clocking 30+ homers a year (pro-rated as mentioned in an above post) and led the team in RBIs for each of the last two seasons. More than Nelson Cruz. Some SABR fans knock RBIs but that has been one of the most important statistics  in the history of baseball in the U.S. which goes back to the New York Knickerbockers in the 1850s.

RBIs are almost completely useless. If I shoot 100 3 pointers and make 25 and Steph Curry shoots 10 3 pointers and makes 10 am I a better shooter than Steph Curry? I have more makes than him so must be better, right? That's what RBIs are. I don't have their numbers in front of me as far as BA with runners on or runners in scoring position or the number of chances they had, but that is going to tell you drastically more than RBIs about who the better run producer is.

 

Eddie is a perfectly fine player and I wouldn't mind seeing him back, and also won't be broken up over it if he's non-tendered. Also don't have a problem with your concerns on WAR and defensive metrics. But using RBIs as a metric to claim who's good and who isn't is not a good argument.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I'm skeptical of Eddie never entering your mind during the 12:31-5:00 block. 

 

Yeah, and I question it in the 9 to noon range too! 

[rdehring]

 

RBIs are almost completely useless. If I shoot 100 3 pointers and make 25 and Steph Curry shoots 10 3 pointers and makes 10 am I a better shooter than Steph Curry? I have more makes than him so must be better, right? That's what RBIs are. I don't have their numbers in front of me as far as BA with runners on or runners in scoring position or the number of chances they had, but that is going to tell you drastically more than RBIs about who the better run producer is.

 

Eddie is a perfectly fine player and I wouldn't mind seeing him back, and also won't be broken up over it if he's non-tendered. Also don't have a problem with your concerns on WAR and defensive metrics. But using RBIs as a metric to claim who's good and who isn't is not a good argument.

Yes, we found out how useless RBI were in the recent Houston series. I'll take a guy that drives em in...and yes, I understand that no one on the team other than Cruz had any RBI in that series.

[chpettit19]

 

Yes, we found out how useless RBI were in the recent Houston series. I'll take a guy that drives em in...and yes, I understand that no one on the team other than Cruz had any RBI in that series.

RBI is a useless stat. There's no argument against it. The point of the game is to score runs so obviously driving runs in is good. But as a measure of a player's talent or skill they are useless as there is no context to them.

 

Let's say Eddie and Cruz each had 200 PAs. If Eddie comes to the plate with a runner in scoring position 100 times and comes away with 25 RBIs and Cruz comes to the plate 10 times with runners in scoring position and comes away with 20 RBIs is Eddie better than Cruz? He has more RBIs so he must be! The stat doesn't tell you anything useful about their performance. Maybe Eddie went 0-fer in those 100 PAs, but hit solo and 2 run shots with a guy on 1st to get his 25 RBIs. It's still good that he got RBIs, but he was the complete opposite of clutch and you wouldn't consider him someone who "drives em in."

 

Counting numbers provide very little context and that is why "advanced stats" have been developed. Even something as basic as ABs per HR tells you more than straight HR totals. Garver hit 31 HRs last year. Eddie hit 32. Was Eddie a better HR threat? He hit more HR so must be! Garver did his in 311 ABs, Eddie did his in 562. If you're the pitcher are you wanting to go after the guy who hit a HR every 10 ABs or the guy who hit one every 17.5?

 

HRs, RBIs, Ks, Rs, etc. etc. etc. are all good to compile. It's better to have more than less (Ks as a pitcher, not hitter), yes. But in the context of a conversation about whether or not a player is worth keeping for a certain dollar amount or should be playing over another guy or whatever other similar conversation is being had they tell you almost nothing.

 

So, yes, we want guys that "drive em in," but using RBIs as the stat to prove that carries no weight as it doesn't tell any real story about how they performed.

[Danchat]

 

I used players with 120 ABs to gather a larger sample size. If you prefer using 180 Abs he was 152nd out out of 157.

I'm not sure what you were measuring there (discipline/swinging at pitches out of the zone), but I thought you flipped 120 for 210 ABs. 

[Doctor Gast]

Kiriloff & Larnach are great prospects & should be in the majors. But we shouldn`t knock Rosario to make a case for them to replace him. He has been the most reliable Twin over the last several years & he`s still young. His salary has been reasonable

[glunn]

Great article -- very funny and informative.

[Joey Self]

 

This is legit one of the most creative and hilarious pieces I've ever read on this site. Amazing work.

I'm skeptical of Eddie never entering your mind during the 12:31-5:00 block. 

Yeah, I'm not so sure I believed that.  There had to be a bathroom break sometime in that 4 1/2 hours where thoughts of Eddie would have been allowed. 

 

JcS

[annismark]

 

Kiriloff & Larnach are great prospects & should be in the majors. But we shouldn`t knock Rosario to make a case for them to replace him. He has been the most reliable Twin over the last several years & he`s still young. His salary has been reasonable

 

With the number of times we've been burned by "ready for the majors" top prospects' early struggles (Hicks, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Stewart, Sofield), or never really making it (Gonsalves, Romero, Meyer, Jay, Jorge) you'd think we'd be cautious about jettisoning one of our more consistent and productive players for a shiny new one.

[mikelink45]

I am about to commit heresy - I prefer Eddie over Max.  In 2019 Eddie had the most RBIs.  I know all the crap about RBIs don't mean anything any more.  Next I expect to hear that the most runs scored does not determine the game winner.

 

In 2020 Eddie had the most RBIs.  Does that mean anything.  Yes.

 

In 2019 Rosario had the second most games played - in 2020 he had the most.  

 

[USAFChief]

Nice piece of writing.

 

But circumstances point toward Eddie having played his last game as a Twin.

 

And it's likely the correct move.

[DocBauer]

Wonderful and fun article! Absolutely brought a smile to my face and tickled my funny bone! And really, every comment made here is smart and logical, whether you agree or disagree.

 

And this the 5th-6th-7th OP to address Rosario over the last year plus. And there will probably be at least a couple more before 2021 begins.

 

But let me lay out a few personal truths that I believe to be reality. I mean, why else am I here? LOL

 

1] There is some weird misconception about RBI with modern day analytics that I don't get. You want to score mkre runs than the other team. That's how you win. There is some misconception that I just don't understand that seems to state ANY decent hitter with power should be able to knock in runs if he has anyone on base in front of him. Really? Is it that simple? You tell me.

 

I remember YEARS ago now when a younger Manny Ramirez didn't want to hit cleanup for the Indians because he didn't feel ready and didn't want the pressure. He enjoyed hitting and producing lower in the lineup. As I recall back then, he often hit 6-7. Of course, he grew and adapted and became a tremdous player.

 

So by the "anyone with power and hit ability with opportunity" mantra, Kepler should just slide in to that spot. Or maybe Kepler as a rookie. Why not? They have hit ability and power.

 

Look, I'm NOT saying Rosario is any kind of future HOF hitter. But he has produced. If ANYONE could be trusted to produce RBI, then managers woukd take 3-4 names, put them in a cap, and let someone draw out the heart of the lineup. SOMEONE here at TD had an amazing article after last season where some expert posted RBI success ratio over a full season and Rosario was near the top, despite his 2nd half lull. (I really wish someone could find that).

 

Rosario is a proven RBI producer. Sometimes, he produces in a way that leaves you almost speechless! He has had moments that I believe only Puckett and Oliva could have ever produced.

 

I laugh when people talk about RBI being a disposable stat.

 

2] Defensively, healthy, Rosario is quality with good range and one of the best arms I have ever seen. For every silly overthrow he makes, he has twice as many throws that nail a guy on the paths or at home. For that matter, for every silly mistake he makes on the basepaths, he makes a great read or jukes out a pitcher of fielder to make something happen.

 

I've stated many times that I can take the mistakes Eddie makes for the 3 times he makes something great happen.

 

3] He produces, and brings a vibrance to the team that is hard to quantify. He may not be the leader that someone like Cruz is, but he brings a certain kind of energy that is important

 

On the other hand:

 

1] Despite all his production and exuberance, and his innate ability to come through with magical moments, he is still prone to wild SO numbers and prone to chasing. It's one thing to be a bad ball hitter...Puckett and Oliva...but very different when you just swing at stuff to consistently that you just can't do anything with. While a SO might be better than a double play, not putting the ball in play or being able to just stroke a SF with runners in position is a real detriment.

 

He's one of my favorite players. I'd love to have him back. I'd love to see him take his game to another level. I've followed him throughout his milb career. I have no illusions that someone like Kirilloff would replace his production immediately. But at some point, you HAVE to examine your roster and address finances and the future. Cruz brought back may be a factor here as well. But you have to either make a $ commitment to a nice player, though flawed, or trust in your young talent that could be as good or better.

 

While a lover of Eddie, despite his production and everything I love about him, he remains the most easily replaceable regular on the roster going forward.

[Greglw3]

 

Rosario ranked 257 of 267 players with 120 ABs this year. He went from absurdly undisciplined to the bottom 5% of the league. It's maddening because he could be one of the best offense players. It's not just swinging outside the zone. He developed a little bit of discipline early in the count but then he swings at terrible pitches when he does get ahead. There is just no reason for pitchers to throw him anything decent.

Somehow you missed Eddie’s much better plate discipline and an OBP 59 points higher than BA. He had a decent amount of walks for a shortened season.

[Greglw3]

 

I would rather keep Eddie as well and have said so. I'd rather get rid of Sano. But the Twins have to get Kiriloff in the lineup next year so one of the outfielders may have to go, become a DH or get benched. Of course, we would be lefty heavy out there so somebody will have to sit vs a southpaw. I guess we'll see how it plays out.

Kepler is not as good as Rosario IMO and Kirilloff could take his place. Kepler would be 4th OF.

 

[Greglw3]

 

I would rather keep Eddie as well and have said so. I'd rather get rid of Sano. But the Twins have to get Kiriloff in the lineup next year so one of the outfielders may have to go, become a DH or get benched. Of course, we would be lefty heavy out there so somebody will have to sit vs a southpaw. I guess we'll see how it plays out.

I’d give Kirilloff the RF position and use Kepler as a 4th OF. Rooker could get AB in OF and 1B, maybe a lot at 1B!