LaMonte Wade Jr. is Too Interesting To Ignore

[Matt Braun]

What is the most important hitting stat? It’s ok, this is just between you and me. There are no wrong answers here (besides RBI). Batting average? Homers? Maybe some wRC+ if you’re feeling spicy? Well, as someone who studied in The Church of Moneyball, I’m going to have to choose OBP. Today we’ll talk about a player who excels in this stat.You know LaMonte Wade Jr., right? The guy who knows the Rochester to Minneapolis flight like how I know flannels? You’d be excused if you forgot about Wade Jr. in the context of the Twins. He really has never been considered an elite prospect in the Twins' system. MLB.com’s prospect list doesn’t list him as a top 30 prospect for the team this year and the same is true for 2019’s list. FanGraphs was a bit more generous as he came in at 27 on their writeup for the Twins’ system in 2019. Here’s what they had to say about Wade:

 

“Wade intrigues as the larger half of a corner outfield platoon. He’s not exactly tooled up, but he walks a lot — more than he strikes out against right-handed pitchers, in fact — and he’ll make up for some of what he lacks in power with rangy, corner outfield defense. It’s not spectacular, but there’s a clear role here.”

 

That doesn’t exactly strike amazement into my heart, but they did say that there’s a clear role in his future which isn’t something that can be said about every other 27th ranked prospect. Also, Cody Stashak came in at 28 in their rankings and he’s had a solid career so far so these rankings aren’t fully foretold prophecies.

 

Let’s dive into those on base abilities for a moment. Wade Jr. has walked at a 14.6% clip over his entire minor league career (480 games) while only striking out 13.5% of the time. His minor league OBP overall sits at .389. That walk rate would have made Wade Jr. the 10th best walker in MLB in 2019 (right behind Josh Donaldson!) and that OBP would have tied him with Freddie Freeman and Ketel Marte for 11th in MLB. That seems good!

 

But using minor league stats in comparison with major league players is unfair. So what about Wade Jr.’s numbers over his short MLB career so far? His 13.3% MLB walk rate would still have him coming in at 16 in all of MLB in 2019, right behind Brandon Belt. Still pretty good! His MLB OBP of .336 isn’t too flattering but it’s over just 113 plate appearances. I have a good feeling that some more playing time would bump that number up even higher.

 

So what’s the catch? Why hasn’t this on-base machine received a significant amount of playing time? Wade Jr. simply hasn’t been the power threat that a corner outfielder is typically expected to be. His minor league slugging percent of .407 would have him tied with José Iglesias for the 14th lowest rate among all qualified batters in 2019. Is ISO any better? Not really. His minor league ISO of .131 would have made him the 16th worst qualified hitter by that stat in 2019. Keep in mind that these are his minor league numbers, not his major league powers numbers which are much worse (granted in a smaller sample).

 

A corner outfielder who doesn’t hit for power is a rare occurrence in MLB. Sorting all qualified outfielders over the last three years and ranking them by lowest slugging percent gives up a lot of names and most of them are not particularly flattering. Wade Jr.’s best MLB comps are guys like Adam Frazier, Nick Markakis, Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, and Robbie Grossman (hey, I remember that guy!). None of those players are exciting names but they all have (or had) important roles on the teams they played on.

 

For Wade. Jr, it’s going to be an uphill battle. He’ll be 27 when the 2021 season starts, he’s probably about the sixth or seventh choice in the Twins outfield, and his power numbers scream “middle infielder” instead of “corner outfield”. Short of having .030 points of slugging percentage magically appear, Wade Jr. will likely be an outsider on the Twins’ roster. That’s a real shame. Wade Jr. takes what we like to call “professional at-bats” and has an otherworldly sense of the strike zone. He’ll likely have to continue to claw his way into playing time if he wants to stick around in the future but don't let that distract you from the fact that he is a very interesting player.

 

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[Linus]

Actually he is quite easy to ignore.

[Danchat]

Yeah, Robbie Grossman is who I thought of as a comp for Wade. So far he hasn't hit well enough in the majors and has showed very little pop in the bat, so at best he's Grossman-lite. He'll walk a whole lot if given the chance, and appears to be a decent fielder at corner OF, but he's just depth at the moment. Kiriloff and Larnach will likely supplant him in 2021.

[terrydactyls]

I can see the point of the previous commenters. Why would anyone want a guy who can get on base when you have a dugout filled with guys that hit .220 and strike out 50% of the time.

[DocBauer]

Wade's biggest problem is 4 fold.

 

1] He has pop and occasional HR power, but not corner power.

 

2] He has yet to prove he can play CF at the ML on a daily or semi-daily basis.

 

3] He's been stuck behind the more productive and powerful Cave at the moment, and just barely ahead of more talented OF options ready or about ready.

 

4] Despite being on "watch" prospect lists, he tanked 2019 at Rochester and did little to nothing in a brief appearance with the Twins.

 

Sounds like a career nosedive to me.

 

Except for ONE THING. I have ZERO illusions Wade is going to be some quality MLB starting OF. In fact, when I look at the Twins OF depth, I have a hard time seeing where he fits in. But despite so-so production, the guy I saw this season was an absolute battled at the plate. He actually looked like he knew what be was doing at the plate, which I didn't see last year. I not only saw solid defense but I saw a couple great plays and he surprised me by his defense at 1B.

 

There is SOMETHING tbere to work with, be it the Twins or someone else. Can he play a good enough CF? Can he take those good AB and turn more of them in to hits, much less the occasional extra base hits?

 

If Cave is gone, and he progresses, he bas a shot as a legitimate 4th OF option. But the OF talent in the Twins system tells me he's gone in a season or two max. Cellistino should push him out at least.

[MplsFan]

I appreciated the article and think most of the comments are fair. Not much room for him on the roster it seems but I was very impressed by his at-bats this year. He just never seemed to have a throw away plate appearance and with men on base I’d find myself wishing he was up

[Darius]

I’m not as infatuated with Wade as some. I’ll take upside over a high floor any day.

 

The walks are nice, but there’s some missing context there. How valuable is walking vs. more XBHs if he’s hitting in the 7 hole front of a guy Adrianza?

[umterp23]

Plate discipline is his key to success.  Awareness of the strike zone and his ability to work his way into getting on base anyway he can.  Something to say about that.  Power, not so much but what would be interesting to see (don't have the analytics for it) would be getting on base with a walk vs a single in his AB's.  Were there runners on base at the time that a single would have moved guys around the bases or no runners and he trots to 1st base?  He knows his limitations on HR power, so taking massive swings to join the Bomba club isn't his game.  Until the Twins figure out that the Bomba mentality is a cute thing and not the only way to score, Wade will be on the outside looking in.

[bighat]

 

I can see the point of the previous commenters. Why would anyone want a guy who can get on base when you have a dugout filled with guys that hit .220 and strike out 50% of the time.

I see your sarcasm and very much agree with your point.

 

All anyone cares about right now is HR and slugging. The Twins built a very nice machine that seems to be built to win during the regular season with that philosophy. Works great against 4-5 pitchers on the good teams and the 1-2-3-4-5 pitchers on the bad teams.

 

Problem is, in the playoffs you only see the 1-2-3 pitchers on the GOOD teams. That's when you need guys who can get on base. Wade fits in as a nice option for this team in that regard. We coulda used him doing that in the Astros series this year or the Yankees series last year.

 

I'm intrigued about what Wade can bring to this team next year.

[nicksaviking]

It's a fine line with corner outfielders, and usually it does come down to power. If your strong OBP comes with a modest but not terrible .430ish SLG you can probably Nick Markakis your way into a long relevant career.

 

But I don't think a Bip Roberts type player has much of a future these days. The Twins already have that player at 2B (so I guess a Luis Castillo instead of a Bip Roberts). 

[Trov]

I think Wade is just the wrong time in baseball.  I think in a different time he would have made majors as a lead off guy.  He is not CF defender most likely it would seem, but his OBP would have got him to majors a decade ago.  MLB is moving to power power power and that is not him.  Could he get with a team that values his skill more, maybe, but for Twins he is not the fit for this current team plans.  I say let the kid get a chance else where if you are not willing to give it to him.  

 

If we were not so deep in corner OF guys I would feel like he should take over for Eddie next year, but we have too many guys that bring more to plate than he does.

[chpettit19]

 

I see your sarcasm and very much agree with your point.

 

All anyone cares about right now is HR and slugging. The Twins built a very nice machine that seems to be built to win during the regular season with that philosophy. Works great against 4-5 pitchers on the good teams and the 1-2-3-4-5 pitchers on the bad teams.

 

Problem is, in the playoffs you only see the 1-2-3 pitchers on the GOOD teams. That's when you need guys who can get on base. Wade fits in as a nice option for this team in that regard. We coulda used him doing that in the Astros series this year or the Yankees series last year.

 

I'm intrigued about what Wade can bring to this team next year.

https://www.mlb.com/news/homers-are-still-the-key-to-winning-in-playoffs

 

The idea that power doesn't play in the postseason just isn't true. The A's hit 5 bombs against the Astros yesterday. The Twins lack of playoff power is atrocious, but power still wins games in the postseason. It can't be your only weapon, but it is the most useful weapon to have. Going against the top pitchers from top teams means its harder to get ANY hit against them. So stringing together a handful of hits to score isn't exactly a world beating strategy either.

[4twinsJA]

I like Wade, seems to be a good teammate, plays hard, plays within himself. But I agree, maybe time to move on to prospects with higher potential. Look for Wade and Cave to be on roster to start season, with eventual replacement by Kirilloff, Rooker, and/or Larnach.

[chaderic20]

Wade is in baseball's version of the "friend zone". You can't say anything really bad about him, he's a great teammate, he's got some great qualities, he's the perfect fallback option, and he'll find the right person team someday, but it's just not the Twins.

[Matthew Taylor]

Really well written article, Matt.

 

Wade is a solid MLB player who unfortunately just found himself on the wrong MLB roster. The biggest knock against Wade is something that's completely out of his control, he's left handed! The Twins have just so many left handed corner OFers, with more to come in Larnach and Kirilloff, that it's just hard to see him having much of a long term impact with this club IMO.

[ashbury]

Many sports have the concept of a "tweener" - a basketball player with good skills who is too slow to play small-forward and not strong enough to play power-forward, for example.

 

Wade has the misfortune of playing in a sport where they don't have the concept of a right-center fielder. He is just not fast enough to be an asset playing every day in CF, but he doesn't have the pop you expect in RF or LF. He's a tweener and it's not clear how a manager can use him to be a real-difference maker.

 

I love OBP more than most, probably, but there's a limit.

[AWOLNATION_11]

Strike zone awareness and pitch recognition seem to be his best assets on the offensive side of the ball, with limited power to this point in his career.  These are the guys that seem like the best candidates to consider mechanical adjustments to try get more out of their contact.  Easier said than done, but at this stage of his career it might be worth a try.  

[Nick Nelson]

I'd take Wade Jr. over Cave

[Nine of twelve]

 

I'd take Wade Jr. over Cave

Given the Twins' current needs I'd take neither over a similar right-handed batter.

[Steve Lein]

I think Wade fits as corner-OF depth for the Twins. Sure, he doesn't have much power, but you don't need that from him on this roster. They just had five guys hit 30+ HR's in a season, eight who hit 20+! As some have mentioned, what the lineup is missing is on-base threats, not power. With the roster construction you have, you don't have to worry about your corner OF guy bringing a boomstick, especially if he's your 4th guy.

[stringer bell]

 

I'd take Wade Jr. over Cave

As a fourth outfielder/bench guy I think I would too. It appears that the Twins coaching staff like Cave a bit more as a center fielder and Cave has more power, but Wade gets on base and has acquitted himself nicely at first base in a few games there. 

 

The thing about Cave is that he seems to do better filling in for a week or month, but playing a random game a week, he doesn't seem to perform as well. I see Wade as better getting a start or two per week. As was mentioned above, both Cave and Wade would be better fits if they were truly center fielders or hit right handed. 

[rdehring]

Hadn't been a big fan of Wade. But the more I saw last year, he grew on me. Think I would agree with those who prefer him to Cave as the 4th outfielder.

 

 

[goulik]

I remember when Wade first joined the Twins organization and the report on him was high floor, low ceiling. Does all the little things right but does not have the all star potential. He seems to be fitting that description well and players like that are useful.

 

On this Twins team moving forward, I see Wade as insurance. Cave is coming to the end of his time in Minnesota and will be priced out of the 4th outfielder role soon though maybe he is still affordable next year for his role. After 2021, Cave is not going to be around (might not be here next year) Wade is controllable and provides that depth insurance.

 

Meanwhile Rosario has gotten expensive and Larnach, Rooker, and Kirriloff are clamoring for their turns.  There is a good chance Rosario's time is coming to an end but these young guns are going to have learning curves and will likely be up and down a few times.Wade is a better defender  than all 3 of them and could be a pinch runner/defensive substitution type as well.  If they do not pan out, we need a back up plan on the train back and forth from Rochester (or St. Paul) and a good person for that is Wade. (And there is no rush to start burning Celestino's clock while waiting for him to be truly ready)

 

What if Buxton goes down and we don't have Cave anymore? Kepler moves to Center (we have seen plenty of that already) and Kepler's corner is easily replaced by one of the 3 prospects or Wade. I expect we will see Wade as quite useful over the next 3-4 seasons and then he will likely fade into Twins History as his Arb years run out.