Twins Early Offseason Outline: The Future is Now

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Everyone wants to move on from Rosario. Kind of reminds me of Aaron Hicks right before we traded him for a serial killer. Rosario's situation of having a one year deal may be viewed as a positive by some organization who needs a quality left handed hitting OF and cannot make a long term commitment this off season. He has some trade value and we will regret it. JMHO

The Twins shopped Eddie at the Winter Meetings last year and the only team interested was the Marlins who were hurting for a left handed power OF bat. Even then they wouldn't give up anything worthwhile for him unfortunately. Now he's a year older and making more money. 

 

It's sometimes hard to believe by watching him but according to the metrics that teams use, he has proven himself to be a bad defender with his most athletic years behind him. He also possesses one of the worst plate discipline profiles you can possibly project for a player as they enter their 30s. I think he has a few years left in the tank, but I can't see him having a resurgence or breakout like Hicks had that leaves us wondering what the hell happened. Also I wouldn't be surprised if Eddie is worth $4-5m in the free agent market this winter. If the Twins call a team up offering Eddie, they'll know we're just trying to get Kirilloff into the opening day roster and we'll probably non tender him if we can't find a suitor. Why would they give anything up and pay double what they could pay him if they just wait it out?

[Cody Pirkl]

 

After reading all this......... it is amazing that our team won two ALC crowns in a row. I'm not saying the there aren't changes to be made, but nothing is certain that prospects can become stars. This was a weird year. A shortened COVID year. I am not ready be an advocate for trashing the whole team, though. 

I agree that it's not worth trashing the whole team but I don't think the Twins want to do that either. I'm a believer that guys like Kepler and Garver were hugely impacted by the logistics of this season. That being said, the Twins have too much talent waiting for a shot in the minors to continue running it back every year after this core of players has crashed and burned so spectacularly two years in a row now.

 

I don't think the goal is to clean house and replace all of the incumbents with young guys and roll the dice. I think it's more about making the most of the talent they have at their disposal and maximizing value. If they think Kirilloff can be as good or better defensively than Eddie and better on offense, why not shop him or non tender him and use that $10m to improve elsewhere? If some combination of Larnach, Rooker and Kirilloff can play 1B and provide a more well rounded profile than Sano, why not trade him for a pitcher or another piece that fills a hole on the team?

 

In the end I think it'll only be a guy or two from this "core" we've seen the last two years that gets mixed up a bit. 

[jrod23]

 

Remember David Ortiz, that is the scenario I am very afraid of if we trade him

 

I hear you, but Sano isn't Ortiz.  Ortiz, with the Twins struck out just less than 23% of his at bats (career 20%).  Sano's sitting at a career 42%.  Ortiz even debuted a little earlier than Sano.  It's a common thought, but one we shouldn't be fearful of.  Yes, power.  He has it.  When it comes down to stats, what Sano doesn't have far outweighs what he does have. If shipped Sano and transitioned Kirilloff exclusively to first base, we'd be far better off.  We'd make room for Rooker or Larnach to take over for Eddie when he's out as well.  

 

[TopGunn#22]

Great takes everyone.  I see the need to move on from Eddie.  A non-tender is a distinct possibility.  I'd trade Sano for a bag of baseballs right now, but honestly, there are teams that WILL be intrigued with his power.  Look at the Indians making a deal for a similar player in Franmil Reyes.  With young bats like Kiriloff and Rooker we're a net better offense.  They take BETTER AB's than Eddie and Sano.  Larnach is close and Royce Lewis will either be the future SS or CF'er depending on how soon he's ready.   

[wildtwinsfan045]

I highly doubt that we would run a lineup with three rookies when we are trying to contend.  The signing of Donaldson shows that the front office sees our window of contention is now and in the immediate future, and they will not throw in the towel after bouncing out of the playoffs (again) after a winning season.

 

Here's my armchair GM take on this:

- I agree that Rosario will be gone.  We should release him or trade him for hopefully a mid-level prospect or at least a lotto ticket.

- Sign Cruz to a one year deal, let him DH until he proves he can't hack it anymore.  We would have been sunk without his contributions this year, I'd hate to see what our lineup would look like without him.

-  Don't trade any of our core players just yet.  60 games was not really enough time to judge any player completely, and pretty much every player that struggled has shown to be better.  Give them one more shot to prove this past season was an aberration.  Besides, we shouldn't trade anyone when their value is so low.

- Start Rooker in LF, and let Kiriloff come up when injury or ineffectiveness makes it necessary.  As the season goes on, you can rotate Rooker, Kiriloff, Sano, and Cruz through three lineup spots so they can all play 3 out of every 4 games. 

- Pray for healthy years from Buxton and Donaldson!  Bring up the prospects if they will miss extended time. 

- For the rotation, sign a midlevel or better SP (Bauer would be great, but keep dreaming).  Resign Odorizzi and Hill to 1 year deals if they will accept.

- For the bullpen, sign a couple good relievers.  Resign May if you can.  Goodbye Romo!

 

If things are going well at the deadline, they can address any needs as aggressively as they want, as we have the prospects to make deals.  

[DocBauer]

I'm agreeing with Cody here that the idea of blowing up a team that has provided so much success over 2 yrs and won back to back division championships is silly and not really the point. This is really about internal self-evaluation and opportunity to tweak the roster. The biggest problems is NOBODY bas any idea roster size for 2021, how the losses of 2020 will affect payroll OR FA and arbitration issues. Right now, the best anyone can do is just project "safe" financial numbers and speculate a full season and standard roster.

 

Some things are going to stay the same, such as the universal DH. I suspect there will be a slightly expanded number of playoff teams, but probably not to the same degree as this year. Really hard to put the genie back in the bottle, especially when you see financial rewards and increased fan interest. I also suspect, especially with all the milb changes that are coming, that managers, staffs, FO and even ownership liked the 28 man roster. I'm actually expecting and hoping we will see a 27-28 man roster going forward.

 

But I am waxing and drifting here.

 

I believe the Twins have a wide open window here, despite frustration. The FO is guarded, but also stated that they believe a review is in order. Shouldn't that always be the case?!

 

1] At some point, finances and young talent force changes. I wouldn't be upset or disappointed if the FO stepped up to the plate and kept Rosario on a smaller deal vs arbitration. But as much of a fan as I am of Eddie, he is the most easily replaceable man in the lineup. Whether traded solely or packed or let go, it's time to open up an OF spot for Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach. There could, potentially, be room for 2 of them.

 

Additionally, one of Cave or Wade has to be gone. There's no room for both going forward. They are different players, and yet redundant to keep both. Some veteran bat with quality defense is needed for depth and security to cover Buxton. Pillar is often mentioned. Fine. Maybe him. But I'm sure other options may present themselves. But someone similar would be wonderful.

 

2] I seriously doubt the FO is going to shop Buxton or Sano. There is so much talent, so much potential there for 2 guys who are just ready to hit their prime years, that you just don't gamble the potential loss after a season as crazy as 2020 was. But you at least listen if someone calls.

 

3] Garver had one of the greatest seasons in MLB history for a catcher in 2019. Did anyone really think he would maintain that? But he is NOT the lethargic bat he was in 2020 either. If I were in charge of a ML team hurting at catcher, I'd be calling the Twins trying to peel him away based on his defensive improvement and his history of at least solid to good production. If I'm the Twins, I'd say no way unless you offer up something I can't refuse. We could easily have one of the best 1-2 punch battery for the next couple of years. Now, I wouldn't mind the Twins stepping up for a nice AAAA or split contract option on a guy for depth.

 

4] A healthy infield for 2020 is fine the way it is. But I think Marwin is toast. His defense was excellent, but the bat seriously regressed and he just looked slow when running. Adrianza has a great glove, but is he the "nice" contributor we saw the previous two seasons coming off a bad year? I don't want to spend $8-9M like we did for Marwin, but we need a guy who can play acceptable defense at multiple spots with a decent offensive game. Just ready to assume Blankenhorn is ready, but the FO knows way more than I do. And health and tough luck doesnt want me to bank on Gordon yet either. So I'm either going to re-sign Adrianza, or I'm looking for an option I like better.

 

When your biggest worry about your infield is just depth and getting everyone healthy, you aren't in a bad spot.

 

5] The rotation is good to great as long as a healthy Odorizzi is brought back. Want someone else? Have we forgotten just how solid he is? Then find another Oddo or Maeda trade. Then make a solid back of the rotation FA signing or cheap trade. We need one more arm to compete with Dobnak and provide depth for now.

 

Unless someone surprises, you re-sign May. Romo should be gone at this point. It's just time. You don't let a high velocity and productive arm like May's walk. He may never develop in to the potential closer you hoped for, but he's usually very good and I think there is another level he can still reach with just a bit more consistency. I'd love to have Clippard back on a 1yr. I don't think he's done yet.

 

Whether through FA or trade, I'd like to see the Twins bring in one outside arm similar to Nathan. What I mean by that is a guy who is under 30 who may be ready for the next level based on opportunity, and working with an outstanding pitching coach who may unlock something more.

 

The FO HAS believed in Thorpe. And I think with good reason. But something has been very OFF all year for this kid. I have been so disappointed. If he's still kept, maybe its time to make him a BP option where he could potentially excel. Does the FO still see Colina as a viable SP option if he can get that 3rd pitch? If not, like Graterol, convert him and don't look back.

 

6] Not player related, but examine the staff. The failed offense for 2020 is blamed so much on losing Rowson. Is that fair or accurate? Offense was down across the league. Injuries and short ramp up and SSS and a crazy season can't be denied. But is the approach right? Players say nothing really changed. Is that true? Was it just a weird year? Or has the whole order fallen in love with the long ball fundamentals were lost?

 

You don't just BLOW UP a talented team with a nice mix of veterans and young players after 2 division flags and post season appearances even if the end result was futile. You look at depth in the system and places where you can tweak, re-tool and augment and develop.

 

This team needs about 5 additions from what they already have to complete the bench and add a couple arms to round out the rotation and pen to keep that window open. With more talent on the way.

[amjgt]

 

 

 

For utility it will probably be either Gordon or an outside FA. I'm done with Marwin and Ehire. Maybe Blankenhorn could reprise Marwin's super utility role? More bat first than defense obviously.

 

 

I'm embarrassed to say, I completely forgot Gordon existed. 

 

I did a pretty detailed breakdown in another thread of different strategies relating to payroll options and playoff options. Most of those scenarios I had us signing an inexpensive utility IF. Mainly because, like I said, I forgot Gordon even existed.

[amjgt]

 

Sano whiffed over 40% of the time

 

"over" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here

[amjgt]

 

Some things are going to stay the same, such as the universal DH. I suspect there will be a slightly expanded number of playoff teams, but probably not to the same degree as this year. Really hard to put the genie back in the bottle, especially when you see financial rewards and increased fan interest. I also suspect, especially with all the milb changes that are coming, that managers, staffs, FO and even ownership liked the 28 man roster. I'm actually expecting and hoping we will see a 27-28 man roster going forward.

 

I heard something interesting today... The ratings for the first round of playoffs really weren't that good. 

 

While I've been working under the assumption that playoff expansion beyond 5 and likely to 8 was inevitable, that little nugget gave me some pause.

[amjgt]

I posted this in a different thread, but this looks to be a better spot for it....

Sorry for double posting.

I feel like there are 9 distinct scenarios – 3 levels of potential payroll (90M, 110M, 130M) & 3 potential playoff formats (Like LAST year, like THIS year, like this year but more advantage to the best teams). Not to even mention 2021 season length.

 

There are several things I’d do regardless of the scenario:
Say goodbye to Rosario
Say goodbye Marwin
Listen to Offers for Sano (not expecting much, so he stays around)
Listen to Offers for Garver (I’m not looking to get rid of him, but if some team(s) value him near 2019 level, I’m willing to deal from a position of strength)

 

With all of our likely existing 2021 payroll commitments we are around $75M, so regardless of the playoff scenarios if we’re looking at a $90M payroll, I’d say it’s likely Cruz is gone, and the biggest move might be bringing Odo back on a 1-year make good deal. Besides that I’d spend $5-6M total on two players 1) veteran back infielder (maybe Adrianza), 2) Veteran right handed 4th OF that you have no problem playing center. Then I’m filling the rest of the roster with near-minimum pre arb guys (Rooker, Kirilloff, Dobnak, Smeltzer, RP, RP) – That puts us around 90M

 

If we’re in that $110M range, then I start to alter my strategy depending on the playoffs (and to a lesser extent, the length of the season)
With 2019 Style Playoffs: Bring Cruz back (1yr/15), Pay Rogers $5M in arb, Say goodbye to Romo, Odo (1yr/8), Bailey (1yr/4), Splurge a little on the 4th OF (1yr/6), Get a backup IF.
With 2020 Style Playoffs: Sign Bauer (1yr/30). Everything else (besides that 4th OF spot) gets filled in house with pre-arb guys.

 

The reason these are so different is because having 8 playoff teams gives the Twins the flexibility to take some lumps by giving innings/AB to the youth movement (Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach, Duran, Balazovich, Lewis). Find out over the course of the season who’s ready for the big time then roll into the playoffs knowing that answer and having at least Bauer, Maeda, Berrios, and Paneda as your rotation. As much as I think the 2020 style of playoffs is a crapshoot, that would likely be an exceedingly fun regular season.

 

130M range (not likely IMO): Add Cruz to the “2020 style playoffs” above (Bauer), spend a little more on the 4th OF, and get a legit backup IF. The main difference between the playoff styles is that if the league goes 2020 style (likely IMO), I’m still ushering in the youth movement, but it’s just a little dialed back with Cruz as my DH anchor, and I’m giving Lewis some more time in the minors to work on 3B.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

"over" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here

I mean its 42.6%

[amjgt]

I thought he was like 48% this year

[USAFChief]

Watch the postseason. The Twins do not have a bullpen that can play at that level.

 

I know the Twins only scored 2 runs, but their offense, when healthy, is good enough to win post season series.

 

But their bullpen isn't. Even had they beaten Houston, their bullpen simply isn't good enough to keep up, and win multiple series. They'd get exposed, as they did against Houston, too many times.

 

Watching NY TB makes this glaringly obvious. Blindingly obvious.

 

Offseason priority one HAS to be putting multiple power arms in that pen.