Article: Where are the Twins at with statistical analysis?

[Alex]

I am too lazy to look it up, but in the 05-07 range the Twins obliterated the record for K/BB ratio for a staff over an entire season (maybe multiple times). Even though a bigger part of the equation was limiting BBs over high K rates, I would say that shows some understanding of what is necessary for successful pitching.

 

The fact that they've gotten so far away from it shows that they don't quite get which part of the equation is the important one, or for that matter, that they even realized what they had.

[TopGunn#22]

Shane, I think you're spot on with your guess that the free agent pitcher is B. Webb. He fits the profile. Some years ago he had one of the best power sinkers in MLB. Injuries have affected his ability to pitch, much less his performance when able to pitch. Plus, like Rich Harden, he's the type of high risk/high reward pitcher the Twins should be taking a chance on.

[Shane Wahl]

Five theories regarding the Minnesota Twins - Baseball Nation

 

Haha. I like that a lot.

[drjim]

It helped having that one guy...you know...the guy who should have won three Cy Youngs in a row for us.

 

No doubt, but it wasn't like Santana had the greatest K/BB ratio ever (he didn't even have the best on the team). The point is they built a staff like that in the past, its not like they forgot that is what is a successful formula. They just haven't been able to develop talent, have made poor trades, and won't spend the type of money on free agents that is required for these type of pitchers.

[drjim]

The fact that they've gotten so far away from it shows that they don't quite get which part of the equation is the important one, or for that matter, that they even realized what they had.

 

If you honestly believe this I don't know what to tell you.

[Shane Wahl]

The manager doesn't pay attention to OBP and the GM signed Kevin Correia. That is the status of respect for statistics in this organization.

[ThePuck]

No doubt, but it wasn't like Santana had the greatest K/BB ratio ever (he didn't even have the best on the team). The point is they built a staff like that in the past, its not like they forgot that is what is a successful formula. They just haven't been able to develop talent, have made poor trades, and won't spend the type of money on free agents that is required for these type of pitchers.

 

During the '05-'07 range, Santana averaged 5Ks to 1BB. That's FANTASTIC, especially for a high strikeout guy. Only one qualifying starting pitcher this year was better than 5:1, Cliff Lee. Verlander was less than 4:1. Your comment sounded like Santana's K/BB ratio wasn't that impressive.

 

Santana's worst K/BB ratio during that 3 year range was '07 when he had 230+Ks and only 52BB in 233 innings...that got him the 4th best K/BB ratio in the majors that year after having the 2nd best K/BB ratio in the majors in 2005(Silva #1...with like 77 Ks) and 2006 (Schilling #1). I'm pretty sure that made Santana's ratio the best in the majors in that 3 year span for qualifying pitchers. Who was the best at that on our team during that three year span? It wasn't Silva.

 

Now, with Santana averaging 5:1 for that three year span, the team had a K/BB ration of 2.77:1 in 2005, 3.27:1 in 2006, and 2.60:1 in 2007. His 5:1 wasn't a huge contributer to that team K/BB ratio?

[Alex]

If you honestly believe this I don't know what to tell you.

 

They focused on pitchers who don't give up walks. That's important, obviously, but the important part of the ratio is the K part.

 

This offseason was the first time they've tried to add prospects that have the potential to strike out batters. At the major league level, though, they continue to add pitchers that have some of the worst K/9 in the game. Worley may be the exception.

[drjim]

During the '05-'07 range, Santana averaged 5Ks to 1BB. That's FANTASTIC, especially for a high strikeout guy. Only one qualifying starting pitcher this year was better than 5:1, Cliff Lee. Verlander was less than 4:1. Your comment sounded like Santana's K/BB ratio wasn't that impressive.

 

Santana's worst K/BB ratio during that 3 year range was '07 when he had 230+Ks and only 52BB in 233 innings...that got him the 4th best K/BB ratio in the majors that year after having the 2nd best K/BB ratio in the majors in 2005(Silva #1...with like 77 Ks) and 2006 (Schilling #1). I'm pretty sure that made Santana's ratio the best in the majors in that 3 year span for qualifying pitchers. Who was the best at that on our team during that three year span? It wasn't Silva.

 

Now, with Santana averaging 5:1 for that three year span, the team had a K/BB ration of 2.77:1 in 2005, 3.27:1 in 2006, and 2.60:1 in 2007. His 5:1 wasn't a huge contributer to that team K/BB ratio?

 

Thanks for the stats, I was going more from a hazy memory. I didn't mean to imply that Santana was anything short of great, but I was also remembering Silva's contribution. My point was that an entire staff was built, and that as great as Santana was it took the rest of the staff to obliterate the K/BB record. I don't think the Twins have forgotten how to do this, or that they don't want strikeout pitchers, it is just that they haven't developed those type of pitchers and won't pay free agent prices for them, which is why it has all falling apart the past couple of years.

[drjim]

They focused on pitchers who don't give up walks. That's important, obviously, but the important part of the ratio is the K part.

 

This offseason was the first time they've tried to add prospects that have the potential to strike out batters. At the major league level, though, they continue to add pitchers that have some of the worst K/9 in the game. Worley may be the exception.

 

I would say a couple of things to this:

1. They have made a concerted effort to add high velocity (and hopefully high K guys) in the past couple of drafts.

2. This offseason is the first time in several years (maybe since '04) that they Twins have traded established players with significant value for prospects, so it was their first opportunity to add high ceiling guys through trades.

3. I still think the major league signings have to do with cheapness and an unwillingness to pay market value for Ks, while also trying to get bulk innings, not a misunderstanding of what makes a successful pitcher.

[Alex]

With regard to #3, I'd think you could argue that not being willing to pay for something, especially when you have the money and it's their biggest need, is precisely the definition of not seeing value in it, ergo not understanding how important it is to a successful pitcher. If you think it is important, you pay for it. Their obsession with supposed inning eaters and their willingness to pay them is even more evidence to me that what they value in pitchers is misplaced.

[drjim]

With regard to #3, I'd think you could argue that not being willing to pay for something, especially when you have the money and it's their biggest need, is precisely the definition of not seeing value in it, ergo not understanding how important it is to a successful pitcher. If you think it is important, you pay for it. Their obsession with supposed inning eaters and their willingness to pay them is even more evidence to me that what they value in pitchers is misplaced.

 

That's a good point. The only thing I would respond with is I question how wise it would be aggressive in signing free agents when the team is a year or two (at least) away from being competitive. I don't like the Correia signing at all, would rather have seen McCarthy or perhaps Marcum, but don't have a huge problem with the Twins avoiding the 4 and 5 year deals even though they have the money. The rest of the pitchers being signed are all a huge meh to me.

 

I wish the Twins were better in free agency, but I think to truly understand what type of pitchers they value it is best to look at who they acquire in trades and who they are trying to draft.

[Kobs]

They focused on pitchers who don't give up walks. That's important, obviously, but the important part of the ratio is the K part.

 

That's nonsense. If one of the components were the important part, you wouldn't have the other component.

[Kobs]

There's nothing quite as exhilarating as a fan than reading that your team aspires to be a middle of the pack team on a major branch of player evaluation.

[snepp]

There's nothing quite as exhilarating as a fan than reading that your team aspires to be a middle of the pack team on a major branch of player evaluation.

 

I read they aren't willing to overpay for above-average analysis.

[East Coast Twin]

Phil Mackey wrote about this last night. Below are couple of quotes from and a link to the article.

 

". . . Ryan now runs every personnel move by the team's manager of baseball research, Jack Goin, who manages the team's Pitch F/X database among other tools."

 

"Back when I was over at the Metrodome in '07, we did a lot of stat work, but it wasn't with the depth that he certainly provides for us. It's different. And he's got some statistical things that I don't believe in, and he's got a lot of things that I do believe in."

 

Notebook: Twins likely done making significant moves this offseason

[Mike Sixel]

He also stated in that interview that scouts he trusts said Correia was better than his numbers. From that I inferred that Ryan trusts scouts more than numbers.

[CDog]

There's nothing quite as exhilarating as a fan than reading that your team aspires to be a middle of the pack team on a major branch of player evaluation.

 

That's absolutely a twisting of what was actually said...which many fans obviously do find to be an exhilirating thing to do.

[nicksaviking]

Phil Mackey wrote about this last night. Below are couple of quotes from and a link to the article.

 

". . . Ryan now runs every personnel move by the team's manager of baseball research, Jack Goin, who manages the team's Pitch F/X database among other tools."

 

"Back when I was over at the Metrodome in '07, we did a lot of stat work, but it wasn't with the depth that he certainly provides for us. It's different. And he's got some statistical things that I don't believe in, and he's got a lot of things that I do believe in."

 

Notebook: Twins likely done making significant moves this offseason

 

He runs acquistions through Goin's department (he and the intern I guess) but I don't think this team truely is embracing any advanced metrics if they don't initiate a large amount of their acquisitons based on this data.

[ThePuck]

He runs acquistions through Goin's department (he and the intern I guess) but I don't think this team truely is embracing any advanced metrics if they don't initiate a large amount of their acquisitons based on this data.

 

Basically he said, 'I go in there with my mind already made up, I listen to Goin, and if he agrees with me I trust his stats. If he doesn't agree with me, I don't trust his stats.'

[70charger]

Basically he said, 'I go in there with my mind already made up, I listen to Goin, and if he agrees with me I trust his stats. If he doesn't agree with me, I don't trust his stats.'

 

So kind of like you when you come to TwinsDaily?

[ThePuck]

So kind of like you when you come to TwinsDaily?

 

Not at all. I admitted I was wrong just yesterday...and it wasn't the first time. I've also said to more than one poster that I appreciated his view and it gave me stuff to think about....when the poster gives a very convincing argument that at least makes me doubt my view. I care more about getting to the truth than whether or not I'm right. Not to say I don't believe strongly in my opinions, but when debating, I'm always open to the fact that I could be wrong.

[Riverbrian]

I don't believe it's Black and White. Very little in life is simply black and white. Grey area has to be considered.

 

The Scouting department is not made of robots... They are not all eyes and gut. I don't believe that they steadfastly refuse to consider any metric analysis and simply toss aside the potential tools. I'm sure they do some of their own stats work to compliment what they do. It doesn't have to come from Goin and the intern.

 

They will want to use every tool they can to make the right calls and recommendations. Eventually they will be replaced if the guys they recommend keep failing.

 

I guess... I don't believe any organization should be all eyes and gut... nor should any organization be all Metric analysis.

 

With that said... The department seems too small based on my impression from the article. Tons of Baseball being played... Tons of players and Tons of data to collect and sift through.

[COtwin]

I agree with many that think we should be pursuing more pitchers with higher strikeout numbers. But... It seems to me that Ks can be overrated. Walks, in my opinion are a very bad thing for a pitcher. I think we all agree that OBP and OPS are better metrics by which to judge a hitter. Well how about judging pitchers by their opp OBP or OPS? I think that this is happening much more than we think. For pitcher with more than 120IP Correia is number 106 in K/BB ratio, 70 in OBP and 75 in OPS. Which is a better metric by which to judge a pitcher? How often he lets men on base (to potentially score) and how hard is he hit? Or, a ratio that is affected by HOW an out occurred not THAT it occurred. I don't like the Correia signing or letting Baker walk. I don't like the Pelfrey and Harden signings with nothing else but hope. I don't like that we didn't pursue more quality. But, maybe Correia is actually not as disastrous as we think.

[70charger]

Not at all. I admitted I was wrong just yesterday...and it wasn't the first time. I've also said to more than one poster that I appreciated his view and it gave me stuff to think about....when the poster gives a very convincing argument that at least makes me doubt my view. I care more about getting to the truth than whether or not I'm right. Not to say I don't believe strongly in my opinions, but when debating, I'm always open to the fact that I could be wrong.

 

 

This was supposed to be good-natured ribbing, but the internet filters tone (a big problem for me, apparently).

 

But it was supposed to be ribbing nonetheless. After all, it's ironic that you assume that Terry Ryan has his mind made up on things before he consults the evidence. Since you have no evidence for this assumption, it seems as though you have your mind made up on it before consulting the evidence.

 

If it makes you feel better, I think a willingness to admit when one is wrong is a hugely important trait.

[ThePuck]

This was supposed to be good-natured ribbing, but the internet filters tone (a big problem for me, apparently).

 

But it was supposed to be ribbing nonetheless. After all, it's ironic that you assume that Terry Ryan has his mind made up on things before he consults the evidence. Since you have no evidence for this assumption, it seems as though you have your mind made up on it before consulting the evidence.

 

If it makes you feel better, I think a willingness to admit when one is wrong is a hugely important trait.

 

Sorry for misinterpreting the ribbing :-) My assumption on him is based on what I read...and I read it quite a few time. That's how it read to me...but I can see your point.

[drjim]

Does anyone listen to the ESPN Baseball Today Podcast and hear the interview with Keith Law and Nate Silver this week? I thought they made some really interesting points about some of the potential new uses of statistical analysis.

 

Basically Silver suggested using regression analysis to cross check scouts using similar analysis that he used to evaluate polling. Keep a database to find out how scouts consistently rate players (ie are they tough graders or more optimistic) and then use that to better hone in on a true analysis of a player.

 

This is an example of a way that I would like to see the Twins be more progressive with statistical analysis. I still think a lot of the criticism of Twins being behind in using statistical analysis to analyze players is vastly overrated but there are more cutting edge ways to incorporate analysis that is not being used by the Twins (and probably 25 other teams). If I ever find the time I may expand these thoughts on a blog post.

[Willihammer]

That would seem to describe the fatal flaw with scout-heavy analysis. You never get a true analysis. Just cut straight to the data and analyze that. I don't know how the figures line up, but at some point it would seem more cost effective to just carpet bomb baseball fields around the world with pitchf/x and fieldf/x cameras, and then sit back, collect and analyze the data remotely, rather than paying all these staff people for travel and whatnot to run around and make biased and subjective judgments.

[drjim]

That would seem to describe the fatal flaw with scout-heavy analysis. You never get a true analysis. Just cut straight to the data and analyze that. I don't know how the figures line up, but at some point it would seem more cost effective to just carpet bomb baseball fields around the world with pitchf/x and fieldf/x cameras, and then sit back, collect and analyze the data remotely, rather than paying all these staff people for travel and whatnot to run around and make biased and subjective judgments.

 

I disagree completely with this and every baseball team does as well. Even the progressive, stat-heavy organizations invest heavily in scouting. There are things that can be observed that are not captured by this cameras or through statistics. The best use is as a supplement to scouting and to cross-check what has been observed.

 

I think there is room for intuition with scouting and that could very well be the separator. There is great value in experience and seeing things over multiple decades. I would suggest that this is one of the hidden strengths that Terry Ryan brings to the Twins - that he is extremely talented at gathering large amounts of data from scouts and more objective statistical measures and making evaluations on talent, especially on the minor league level.

[Willihammer]

To me, any system that relies on grades for the guys who grade the players, in order to account for their biases, strikes me as inefficient and probably not very accurate. But maybe I'm just not understanding Silver's idea.

 

I would think that after the initial install, you can then get by with a fraction of the scouting staff on hand to go out and look at guys who have triggered themselves onto your radar. Let the players pay for their own travel into and out of ballparks with the cameras setup, let the blogosphere do the analysis. Heck you wouldn't even need to keep statisticians on staff, only need to pay the electricity bill.