5 Pivotal Questions Heading into the Twins Offseason

[bobs]

  Is it possible to find a promotion for James Rowson that would bring him back??

[MNTWINSWINAGAIN]

 

Wanted to respond to MNTWINSWINAGAIN, but didn't want to copy that entire post.

 

Found your thought process to be interesting, very interesting. No one will know until we get to spring if there will be any fans in the stands, thus budgeting 2021 revenue is a crap shoot. So I will be shocked if we don't see the Twins payroll reduced substantially, much lower than most of the above projections. 

 

Did find one thing in your post that I had to do a double take on. That was including Javier with your infielders to bring up. He didn't play anywhere in 2020 and most recent season was a total failure with the bat in 2019 at Cedar Rapids. Certainly not ready for the big leagues and is probably buried deep in their depth chart at shortstop. Now Lewis, he could be another story.

Agree that Lewis is option A.  I included all three to highlight Milb SS depth that allows for Polanco to be considered a movable asset.  I do not dislike Polanco and think his defense is improved but I want better defense from this premium position.  Gordon might not be able to stay at SS.  Javier is the best defender at the position but has had a tough time staying healthy.  Perhaps 18 months away from the daily grind will have him show up next spring physically stronger?
 

I would tell all of them to be ready to battle for a job in Spring training(if there is such a thing in 2021).  If Lewis makes it out of ST, I expect he would be able to play SS, 3rd and OF and make it unnecessary to bring in as many veterans as I previously posted. I suspect Royce Lewis will Eventually replace Buxton in CF if Byron chooses not to sign an extension.  Reminds me of what the Diamondbacks did with Ketel Marte to maximize the utility of his athleticism.

[jkcarew]

Near the top of my list would be getting a quality ever-day major league center fielder.

[TopGunn#22]

Lots of interesting discussion and speculation.  My 2-cents:

 

I'd look for more of a re-tool (after all we've won the division 2 years running).  But not a "light" re-tool.  I'd be aggressive.  They need to create a pathway for younger, affordable players like Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach.  The idea of trading Sano to an NL team to be their DH is an excellent start.  There is no denying he has tremendous power, but for me his AB's are just too "all or nothing--inconsistent."  The same with Rosario.  Moving Sano and Rosario while replacing them with Kiriloff and Rooker frees up up payroll and actually benefits the lineup with a couple of hitters who would look to have more consistently effective AB's.  The unknown here is what could you get for each of these guys ?  SP's ?  RP's ?  Other prospects ?  That's speculation that will manifest itself more once the cold winter months are upon us.  But moving on from Sano and Rosario are moves which not only must be contemplated, but eventually executed.  

 

Cruz MUST be brought back.  He's the only truly professional hitter we have.  We simply cannot be out bid for him if the feelings are mutual that he'd like to come back.  Moving on from Sano & Rosario helps you sweeten the pot for Nellie.  However, he's going to need more rest and he will probably have an injury or two, so Donaldson, Kepler, Kiriloff, Rooker etc...all need to be ready to DH as well.  

 

Buxton is vexing.  The talent and importance to the Twins is obvious.  But they need a RH 4th OF'er to guard against the inevitable.  Kevin Pillar is a good suggestion and many here have mentioned him before.  Perhaps there are a couple other, similar players.  Polanco REALLY took a step back this year.  I like the idea of a glove-first guy like Iglesias (who has become a better than average hitter).  Is Boston serious about moving on from X. Bogaerts ???  If so, package Polanco and make a deal, even if it means giving up a Larnach, Balazovic etc...in the process.  Would anyone disagree that Bogaerts would be a massive upgrade ??  

 

There is no way the Yankees let DJ LeMahieu go.  He's just been waaaay too good and after all, they're the Yankees.  Like Cruz staying in Minnesota DJ staying with the Yanks makes too much sense.  That said, Arraez needs to be our 2B-man and leadoff hitter.  He's DJ without the power.  He's just what the lineup needs...a table setter.  

 

I like the prospect of a rotation with Maeda, Berrios, Pineda and possibly Rich Hill on another one-year deal.  Hill will miss starts, but when he's on the mound, he's effective, and we have Dobnak and others to pick up the slack.  BUT...how would that rotation look with Trevor Bauer at the top ???  He's going to cost $30-$35 million.  How serious is Bauer about one-year deals from now on.  I'd talk to him.  With the injection of Kiriloff, Rooker, Jeffers, Alcala, Colina, maybe Duran, possibly Lewis and Larnach the team friendly deal of Kepler, the fact that Arraez is affordable for the next several years etc...the Twins can afford to go big for a guy like Bauer.  He will have plenty of suitors after an NL CY Young award so I hope the Twins don't get out-bid in the end like they did for Wheeler.  

 

Finally Rocco.  As good as he was when balls were flying out of the yard in 2019 he was frustratingly BAD in 2020...especially in the post season.  Look, we don't go out and get a guy like Bauer if the manager says "Nice job Trevor, 5 innings, 80 pitches, zero runs and 9 strikeouts??  Go sit down, Cody Stasheck has this going forward.  

 

[DocBauer]

Spent over an hour posting my thoughts...couple family and beer breaks...and then lost EVERYTHING I intended to say with some internet glitch!

 

So here goes a brief and angry quick recap:

 

1] Fans, who knows. Life moves on and needs to move on. Football on all levels may show us if fans can be involved. I want to say there will be.

 

2] Cruz: He's still good. Late season injury and rest dont matter. Good 1 or 2yr deal similar to what he signed is about right. Weird financial numbers and the DH in the NL shouldn't blow his numbers out of the water. He means too much to not keep him on a reasonable deal. And be wants to stay. $15M approx and a 2nd season around $12 with maybe a higher buyout. Worth it.

 

3] Roster needs abridged version:

 

RH hitting 4th OF, maybe, even though I like Cave despite his inconsistency. Really improved his defense this year! Wade might be even better and ready to supplant him despite less power. Can't keep everyone. Cellistino not ready yet. Want to keep Kepler in RF as much as possible.

 

Despite the original 26 man roster, will they move to 27 or the 28 we saw this season? No matter what, no way to keep everyone. Trades or walking papers will happen. Stinks! Because we're talking about letting good talent go. Maybe we get something good back? Hope so.

 

Still worried about that extra RH OF bat besides Rooker. Hate to say it, but starting to think Rosario may be gone for $ and opportunity for Kirilloff and Larnach.

 

Need infield depth. Marwin is gone, Adrianza might be back cheap. Gordon and Blankenship not ready YET. Give me a good, versatile and decent bat for the bench.

 

SP is solid with potential. But we need Oddo back, or a similar Oddo or Maeda trade. That completes 1-4. Then we need at least 1 flier to compete with Dobnak and rookie potential for the 5 spot.

 

Catcher should be OK, but I'd feel better with Avilla back on an invite or someone similar.

 

Pen needs May back, unless the market shifts and he gets some great offer. Closers come from within. There is no inexpensive FA option other than fantasy. We have the nucleus in place. And we have a couple really live arms close. Room's $ can be spent elsewhere, sorry to say. So so on Clippard, but wouldn't mind him back.

 

4] With offense down across all of MLB and the Twins, how much blame is there? Did Rowson make that much of a difference? If Rocco and the FO think so, then make the change. There is too much talent on this team for the results we saw. Power ru,as and will always rule. But you still have to get a hit once in a while or have to make enough contact for a sac fly.

 

5] Going forward, do what they have been doing. Build the system. Keep making smart trades. But don't be complacent. Tweak what is already a good team/roster.

[twinfan]

As good as Bauer seems to be, I somehow feel he would be a poison in the clubhouse and he plays by his own rules. Why does Marvin have to go? He is very valuable with all the positions he plays and he can hit a little. Hill should be brought back for a year. Give Cruz 2 years if that's what it takes. Keep Rosario but get rid of Sano for a starter and maybe a hitter. I'm not crazy about Lewis and would rather have Polanco or Iglesias. Retool the middle relievers with power arms and get a closer if Rogers doesn't bounce back (I think he can). And please teach these hitters how to make better contact, beat the shift and move runners. It also would be nice (as I said before) to get a little more speed. See y'all next year.

[Danchat]

 

As good as Bauer seems to be, I somehow feel he would be a poison in the clubhouse and he plays by his own rules. Why does Marvin have to go? He is very valuable with all the positions he plays and he can hit a little. Hill should be brought back for a year. Give Cruz 2 years if that's what it takes. Keep Rosario but get rid of Sano for a starter and maybe a hitter. I'm not crazy about Lewis and would rather have Polanco or Iglesias. Retool the middle relievers with power arms and get a closer if Rogers doesn't bounce back (I think he can). And please teach these hitters how to make better contact, beat the shift and move runners. It also would be nice (as I said before) to get a little more speed. See y'all next year.

Marwin was abysmal at the plate this year, and his best years in Houston were inflated by cheating. He is a quality defender at several spots, but we can't afford to have another black hole in the lineup.

 

I'd certainly entertain Igelsias as an Adrianza replacement, and then go Blankenhorn/other internal option as a replacement for Gonzalez. (They may have to pay Iglesias a decent amount after he hit like crazy for the Orioles and is a quality fielder at SS. He hit .956 OPS this year even with little power! Impressive.)

[Nine of twelve]

Regarding Varela, here are the relevant OPS data:

 

2019 AL: .761

2019 Twins: .832

2020 AL: .732

2020 Twins: .743

 

While we were better than average in 2020 the drop in our OPS was much larger than the league-wide drop. I don't have enough inside knowledge to say how much of this should be laid at the feet of Varela. The Twins should try to employ the best coaches available and if there is someone they deem better than Varela then that's who should be hired.

[Dodecahedron]

 

Regarding Varela, here are the relevant OPS data:

 

2019 AL: .761

2019 Twins: .832

2020 AL: .732

2020 Twins: .743

 

While we were better than average in 2020 the drop in our OPS was much larger than the league-wide drop. I don't have enough inside knowledge to say how much of this should be laid at the feet of Varela. The Twins should try to employ the best coaches available and if there is someone they deem better than Varela then that's who should be hired.

 

Were the Twins hitters reborn as rookies in 2020? How much influence could a pitching coach possibly have on the 2019 players?