Should the Twins Front Office Have Added a Bat?

[Matthew Trueblood]

We can’t know what the asking price for any player who wasn’t traded by August 31 was. We can’t know whether teams outside playoff contention were willing to deal anyone under team control beyond 2020. We can, however, say that the Twins front office failed to make needed upgrades at this year’s deadline.The rationalizations they offered after the quiet passing of that deadline sounded reasonable enough. The team anticipated getting Byron Buxton and Josh Donaldson back, and that figured to improve their offense immediately. In fairness, those guys did return, and they did have a positive impact on the lineup, and (despite further injury issues) the team did manage to eke out a division title. The front office believed they could weather the injuries and underperformance they’d dealt with to that point, and be fully healthy and productive by the time the playoffs rolled around,

 

Here’s the problem: to whatever extent they were being honest when they made those statements on Sept. 1, the front office was viewing the trade deadline as one path to solving the problems that had already arisen. That’s not how a contending team needs to view the trade deadline. For a truly great team, or one with that potential, the trade deadline needs to be viewed as a chance to solve problems that have not yet arisen. It’s the art of heading off trouble at the pass.

 

Obviously, that’s not easy. Look around, though, and you’ll notice that the smartest, most aggressive teams always do it. The 2017 Dodgers were 74-31 at the end of July, leading the NL West by 14 games, but they made a last-second trade for Yu Darvish, because that raised both their floor and their ceiling come October. That ended badly, when the Astros lit Darvish up in the World Series, but first, he gave the team nine very good regular-season starts and dominant outings in both the NLDS and the NLCS.

 

The 2017 Astros had a commanding lead in their division and a deep enough pitching staff to make an October run, but traded for Justin Verlander just before the deadline for postseason eligibility. The 2014 Athletics dealt for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel on July 4, but on July 31, they dealt for Jon Lester, too. Lester eventually lost the AL Wild Card Game, but without his stabilizing presence, the Oakland rotation would have collapsed altogether. They went 15-29 in games started by anyone but Lester over the final two months, but 7-4 when Lester pitched.

 

In late August, it was clear that the Twins needed offensive help. There were many candidates, though relatively few hitters ended up being dealt. It was a difficult trade deadline to navigate, and even if the Twins knew better than to assume the best about their in-house candidates, they faced several obstacles in trying to develop and complete negotiations on a deal. Still, it feels as though they were too confident, both in the health of their players and in their likely performance levels over the balance of the season.

 

Because 2019 marked such a substantial departure from the track records of Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Ehire Adrianza, one inevitable challenge of 2020 was assessing how much of those improvements were sustainable, and to what extent regression would erase them. The Twins were slow to acknowledge the latter, keeping Polanco in premium lineup spots too long and remaining too satisfied with Adrianza as a utility infielder and near-everyday player.

 

The other challenge, which is a perennial one for every team but was especially cogent in the case of these Twins, was judging the probability that Buxton, Donaldson, and Arraez would each be able to get and remain healthy, and including in that analysis the risks that Miguel Sanó (past injury issues), Nelson Cruz (age), Alex Avila (both of those things), Kepler (known nagging issues and a history of others), or Polanco (never, it seems, fully healthy, dating to last June) would also either break down or have their performance compromised by some ailment. They surveyed those issues, considered their (very good) depth of young players at the alternate site, and elected to stand pat. That was a miscalculation, and I would argue that it was a pretty poor one.

 

Donaldson’s injury issues have all been related; there was no reason to assume he would suddenly have no further trouble with them. Buxton has proved, across several seasons and in myriad ways, that he’s injury-prone. That’s not a comment on his toughness, intelligence, or self-control, but nor is it really debatable. Avoiding serious injury, whether when being hit (or not) by a pitch, running into (or stopping shy of) the wall, or running the bases, is a skill, and Buxton doesn’t possess it. Arraez’s knees have been balky since he was in the low minors. The other, ostensibly healthy players listed still bore clear signs of posing injury risks. The front office needed to accept the fact that they were, as a group, unlikely to be available and productive enough to get them far in the postseason, and go make an addition or two. They failed in that endeavor, and now have a long winter to weigh some very similar decisions.

 

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[USAFChief]

I dont blame them for not adding to the lineup.

 

But not shoring up a bullpen short of good arms was short sighted at best. Serious teams aren't putting 37 year old junkballers on the mound in the 9th inning of a tied playoff game.

[Seansy]

It is really frustrating as a fan to hear about injury issues after their season ends rather than during the lead up to the postseason. It ends up just sounding like excuses when we know that's not the case.

 

Is Rocco's habit of saying NOTHING about injuries some kind of competitive advantage thing or is he just a big Belichek wannabe?

 

We knew about Buxton's concussion and shoulder but now he has some unexplained issue that they won't elaborate on?

 

We knew about Kepler being injured previously but it was still bothering him? He also was banged up at the end of the year last year too. Same thing for Garver. Polanco's ankle was a problem that was never mentioned until the end of the year TWICE! Last year and this year again.

 

At this point we have to wonder if ANY of our core players will ever enter the playoffs healthy enough to produce. How F'ed up is that???

 

I never even knew Arraez had a history of knee issues for so long so I appreciate the info.

[ashbury]

It is really frustrating as a fan to hear about injury issues after their season ends rather than during the lead up to the postseason. It ends up just sounding like excuses when we know that's not the case.

 

Is Rocco's habit of saying NOTHING about injuries some kind of competitive advantage thing or is he just a big Belichek wannabe?

 

We knew about Buxton's concussion and shoulder but now he has some unexplained issue that they won't elaborate on?

 

We knew about Kepler being injured previously but it was still bothering him? He also was banged up at the end of the year last year too. Same thing for Garver. Polanco's ankle was a problem that was never mentioned until the end of the year TWICE! Last year and this year again.

 

At this point we have to wonder if ANY of our core players will ever enter the playoffs healthy enough to produce. How F'ed up is that???

 

I never even knew Arraez had a history of knee issues for so long so I appreciate the info.

If such information became publicly known, our post-season opponent might be able to use it against us, to sweep us.

 

[rdehring]

I maintain not trading at the deadline nor the injuries is the major problem this team faced. What drives me nuts is the shift for nearly every hitter and bringing the infield in early in the game when a double play would end the inning. Although my recollection isn't what it used to be, I recall two key runs scoring in the playoffs on slow grounders that would have been outs in days past.

 

The biggest question facing this team is have they taken analytics too bloody far?

[jun]

 

If such information became publicly known, our post-season opponent might be able to use it against us, to sweep us.
 

We have been swept by our opponents in post season for a long long time.

[mikelink45]

 

If such information became publicly known, our post-season opponent might be able to use it against us, to sweep us.
 

I take this as a facetious remark.  And as such quite funny.  If not, I am sorry if I insult you.

 

[mikelink45]

Trades, FAs, how about bringing up your young players.  Desperation meant Jeffers coming up and now many of us expect him to keep the starting Catcher spot.  We waited how long to bring up Rooker?  And he hit and he is right handed.  He could have been there all season or at least half.  The injury was not predictable, but the need for a right handed bat was.  

We wait until the playoffs to call up Kiriloff????  At least the last week of the season could have prepared him better.  But he did get a hit which many on the team did not.  He could have come up earlier and replaced Wade or Cave.  

 

And Lewis swung away in St Paul, but we could have had him take Adrianza or Gonzales place and maybe his bat could have worked here.  

 

Edwar Colina brought up - thrown in and dropped.  Maybe he could have started earlier and developed by the playoffs - we obviously did not trust Clippard or Wisler in the playoffs (where was Alcala?).  

[nicksaviking]

 

I dont blame them for not adding to the lineup.

But not shoring up a bullpen short of good arms was short sighted at best. Serious teams aren't putting 37 year old junkballers on the mound in the 9th inning of a tied playoff game.

 

We saw the season differently I guess, because it sure seemed to me the offense's inability to get on base was this year's biggest issue. Meanwhile this had to have been the best bullpen this organization has ever seen. I agree that Romo shouldn't have been used as much or in high leverage situations, but they literally had a half dozen arms they could have put in there instead, but stubbornly didn't.

 

With the team acknowledging that Polanco is going to need surgery I wonder why Lewis was never given a shot. It has been clear all year that a half healthy Polanco isn't a very good ball player.

[Trov]

I believe they were correct for not adding offense.  As noted, we do not know what was out there and the price.  The front office basically said this is last year with the current group because so many younger guys ready to get shot next year.  It is also not clear if the bats available would have been upgrade.  

 

Overall this year was just crazy and hard to say any time acted right or wrong throughout it.  To say the Twins should have traded for offense for expectation of injuries or that some players were regressing is, in my mind, going too far.  

 

Going by position, OF was unlikely to get a clear upgrade and then when your normal guys come back what do you do?  If you traded for team control 2021 that adds to logjam of players there as well.  3b, we have JD long term, yes injury was quite possible, but to trade for a better offensive backup that means should be starting would require when JD returned that backup to move postions, but to where?  DH or 1b would be most logical, which DH out of question with Cruz, so just 1b.  Okay, Sano slumped bad rest of year, but he has always been super streaky.  I could be wrong on time but he had a nice streak going on near deadline I thought.  Last month terrible. SS, very little likelihood any offensive upgrades available there short term or long term. 2nd Arrize returned just fine overall and he looks to be long term solution for now.  Catcher, Jeffers came in and did just fine as well, fact Rocco kept riding the Garve train is not on front office.  Yes, you could have found someone better as a backup offense, but how much better and what would it have cost?   

[Vanimal46]

We could say in hindsight they needed another bat in the lineup. However, at the trade deadline it wasn't a big priority. The only one on the trade block this year that appeared to be an upgrade was Starling Marte. Even then, he would have been a part time fill in. A RH bat is much needed this off-season to break up the monotony of 75,000 LH hitting corner OF in the organization. 

[Steve Lein]

 

 

 

The biggest question facing this team is have they taken analytics too bloody far?

 

I definitely think there is an element of this. To me, the analytics give you an overall strategy to implement over an entire season, things like shifting, but it's not necessarily meant for a lot of individual game flow/game situations.

 

You still have to manage individual games with what you see happening. My biggest complaint about the sweep (secondary to bats being non-existent) is the pulling of Maeda and Berrios, especially Berrios.

 

He was at 75 pitches, just made a huge pitch and was PUMPED coming off the mound... And you took him out of the game. Instant emotional deflation, of the entire team because they're all right with you in the dugout as it happens.

 

He was rightfully mad about it, and if you can't ride your horse in a postseason game when it's clear he's giving you everything he's got, because you have this analytic philosophy that says you have to take him out now, in my opinion, you're doing it wrong.

[ashbury]

I take this as a facetious remark.  And as such quite funny.  If not, I am sorry if I insult you.

Satire is a dangerous art in this medium and I indulge in it much too frequently for my own good.

 

[Twodogs]

You know, every team's guys are dinged up and have injuries going into the post season, always. The teams that win play through those dings and win. The Twins guys appear soft from the outside looking in.

 

Pulling Maeda and Berrios after 5 innings to me was assinine. I mean you have to send those guys back out. I mean you should send those guys back out until things get shaky. I mean someone hits a line shot at Kepler and then it's probably time to go and get him. You can usually tell when a guy has lost it. You have to have confidence in your stud pitchers to get you 6 hopefully 7 innings out there. The team needs that, to feed off of it. Let the pitchers get in a rhythm. Within reason of course. You don't want them pitching 120 - 130 pitches or anything like that, but let them go 100 or 110 if they are shutting the door on the other team. Dusty Baker I think used a total of 5 pitchers for the series? I mean his starters didn't go too far, he could see them start to get shaky. But when his relief pitchers were on he left them in until someone ran them out and nobody did.

 

The Twins need a couple of hitters to cut down their swings with 2 strikes. I get it, home runs play, but swing away on strike one and two. After that choke up and get a single, maybe the next guy will hit a bomba on strike one or strike two and now you have a two run bomba instead of a solo shot. It seems to me that the good teams get some hits besides home runs all of the time. It's like for the Twins it's a home run or a K-out. Those K's cost a lot of runs. Sometimes a ground ball can advance a runner and a fly ball can sacrifice someone home. But none of that stuff can happen when you strike out all of the time.

 

Shifts. Shifts and bunting and base stealing and all of that stuff works when the other team can't predict it. Shift too often and you become predictable. Bunt too often and you become predictable. Never bunt and you also become predictable. Never steal bases and you become predictable. When you become predictable you set yourself up to be beaten by that dribbler through the area where the shift vacated. If a hitter knows you are shifting him all of the time, just once does he have to go up there looking for that changeup away and walla he hits a sqibbler through the shift. These things need to be used on occasion and in a more unpredictable fashion. I think that is where Rocco is wrong, is everything he does is now predictable, whether that's his fault or upper management's fault I don't know. But that is what I see.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I hit sixth in the lineup back in a T-Ball tournament once. Anyway, I came up in the first inning of the first game with the bases loaded and two out, and struck out. Then same thing happened in the second game. No runs either time. Felt like the worst person in the world. So anyway, my opinion has always been to have a contact hitter who knows the strike zone in the six spot. Definitely not a Miggy if possible—he’s either a 3-4 hitter or a 7-8 hitter. Then maybe Lamont Wade instead of Alex Kirilloff would have had a better result there. We’ll never know.

[USAFChief]

I definitely think there is an element of this. To me, the analytics give you an overall strategy to implement over an entire season, things like shifting, but it's not necessarily meant for a lot of individual game flow/game situations.

 

You still have to manage individual games with what you see happening. My biggest complaint about the sweep (secondary to bats being non-existent) is the pulling of Maeda and Berrios, especially Berrios.

 

He was at 75 pitches, just made a huge pitch and was PUMPED coming off the mound... And you took him out of the game. Instant emotional deflation, of the entire team because they're all right with you in the dugout as it happens.

 

He was rightfully mad about it, and if you can't ride your horse in a postseason game when it's clear he's giving you everything he's got, because you have this analytic philosophy that says you have to take him out now, in my opinion, you're doing it wrong.

Great post.

 

Plan for the long run.

 

Manage for the moment. PARTICULARLY in the post season.

 

I dont think Rocco has a an appreciation for that second part.

[Twodogs]

Great post.

 

Plan for the long run.

 

Manage for the moment. PARTICULARLY in the post season.

 

I dont think Rocco has a an appreciation for that second part.

I'm mad at Rocco when the decisions are made also, but could it be possible that Rocco is doing what he is told by the geeks behind the computers?? Just a thought, before I and everyone else jumps all over Rocco. He was a ballplayer, I assume he has these hunches once in awhile, but maybe he is afraid to go against what the computer guys say?

[Steve Lein]

 

I'm mad at Rocco when the decisions are made also, but could it be possible that Rocco is doing what he is told by the geeks behind the computers?? Just a thought, before I and everyone else jumps all over Rocco. He was a ballplayer, I assume he has these hunches once in awhile, but maybe he is afraid to go against what the computer guys say?

 

Exactly what I was originally saying was wrong with his managing...