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Same Old Story: Another Abject Postseason Failure


Nick Nelson

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As a 40 year+ Twins fan, this loss---not that we could forget "the streak" as freaking Karl Ravich had to remind the national audience what seemed like every 10 minutes----just blends in with all the others since 2004.  Don't get me wrong, I'm thoroughly p*ssed off at a multitude of things, but will save that RANT for another day.  

 

So, turning the page to 2021------what else can we do-----I agree with a few other posts that its time for Falvey-Levine/Pohlads to take a step back and rebuild this roster.  Looking at current roster, the following players are all UFA's and imo they should ALL be allowed to leave/shown the door:

C: Avila

UT: Adrianza

UT:  M. Gonzalez

 

Those 3 combined salary in 2020 was:  $14.85mill.  Those $$ can be better reallocated in several areas 

 

In addition, the following Pitchers should be shown the door "asap"

1. Odorizzi

2. Bailey

3. Hill

4. T. May* (tough call)--I could be convinced to bring him back, but prefer the upside of Stashak and Alcala

 

Although not a UFA, there is NO WAY to justify bringing Romo back on a $5 mill club option/$250K buyout.  NO WAY this should happen for a 38-year old RP with 1 pitch.

 

Also--1 more cut-------Jake Cave. Although Cave won't cost much (paid $587.5K this season), Falvey has got a RH bat 4th OFer that can hit LH's.  I would try to sign UFA Kevin Pillar. Pillar is 31-year old veteran.  Pillar was productive this season between Red Sox and Rockies hitting .288 with 6 HRs and 26 RBI.  Pillar was even better vs. LH pitching hitting .342 (76ABs) with a .969 OPS.

 

Now, with those cuts-we can start to restructure the roster for next year with the intent of challenging for a playoff spot & building for the future:

 

Catcher:  2

Mitch Garver:  Arb 1 eligible. Made $620K this season.  Won't see much of anything in way of a raise.  After his dreadful season, he has to earn the #1 slot back

Ryan Jeffers:  Under team control.  Solid defensively and bat showed some thump

 

INFIELD: 5

1B:  Sano; Signed for 2021 at $11.0mill.  Not going anywhere.  Possible DH if mgmt doesn't resign Cruz.

2B:  Arraez:  Under TC for 2021; made league min (596K in 2020). Must improve his speed and range and find a way to stay healthy next year. Only played in 33 of 60 games this season.

SS:  Polanco; signed for a reasonable $4.33m next year.  Huge regression in his offense this season.  

3B:  Donaldson:  35 years old next year and due $21.0m per year over next 3 seasons.  Key to our offense even at his age. Only 28 games played and not as productive as hoped, but Twins were a much better team with him in lineup and defensively at 3B.

UTILITY INFIELDER:   Need to find via trade or in free agency.  Possible cheap alternative could be Travis Blankenhorn. Got a cup of coffee from alternate site this year, but hit .277 in 471 plate appearances last season with 19 HRs and 54 RBI in 108 games

DH:   Nelson Cruz-UFA for 2021.  I really can't believe Falvey will allow him to leave during FA.  His market will be limited if NL returns to NO DH rule next season, which I can see MLBPA pushing for in offseason.  If that's the case, even for a 41-year old--Twins have to at minimum make a reasonable 2-year offer---$30mill.  I know a high expenditure, but worth it with the numbers he's put up the last 2 years.

 

If you're keeping track-------Twins have $36.33 mill obligated for trio of Sano, Polanco and Donaldson.  Add another $15mill for Cruz, $600K (league minimum) for Jeffers & Arraez, maybe $1 mill for Garver in arbitration and $3m for a veteran utility infielder acquired in FA---that takes payroll to right at $56-57mill for 7 roster spots.  

 

OF

Rosario:  Made nearly $8m this season and due a raise in arbitration.  UFA in 2022.  Time to TRADE Rosario for a RH bat/ Corner OF or a closer/RP.  

Buxton:   Arb 3 eligible; Made $3.075 mill this season.  He will be back. I'd project raise in area around $4mill

Kepler:   Signed for $6.5mill next season and through 2023.  Must improve his bat next season and find a way to stay in the lineup, preferably in a lower slot.

4th OFer:   Already covered, but I think Pillar should be a major target in free agency. Veteran leader, which this team needs!!  Played for $4.25m in 2020.

Corner OFer*---If Rosario is traded:  I got to think Kiriloff's promotion to playoff roster is a signal mgmt is counting on him next season.  

 

So, if you add the OF payroll together for Kepler, Buxton, Kirilloff and Pillar(?) that add another $17mill to above players for a total payout of $74mill.

 

Moving onto our Pitching.  13 slots/ 5 starters/ 8 RPs

SP1:  Maeda; signed for $3.125 per season through 2023.  What a bargain!

SP2:  Berrios:  Arb 2 eligible. Made $4.025 this season.  In line for a large contract from Twins mgmt.  Not sure if Berrios will accept as he's due to hit the FA market in 2023.  I assume he gets a nice raise in the area of $6mill for next year

SP 3:  Pineda:  Signed for $10m for 2021

SP4:   Randy Dobnak; Cheap SP alternative that was Twins best pitcher from opening day through later part of August.  Under team control for 2021 in area of $600K

SP5:      FREE AGENT or TRADE MARKET.  

 

Add the top 4 SPs to previous monies and payroll is at/close to $94 mill.

 

BULLPEN:  8 slots

Tyler Clippard:  UFA, but a RP that I believe Falvey should try to resign. Made $2.75m this season and I think he'd resign for 1 year for $3.25m

Matt Wisler:  Arb 2 eligible and should be offered.  Made $725K as UFA signee in offseason.  Should be able resign him for $1.25m

Cody Stashak:  Under team control.  Will be back in 2021 at/around league min/$600K

Jorge Alcala:  Same as Stashak. Showed flashes this season. Only 26. Back for league minimum-$600K

Tyler Duffey:  IMO our best and most consistent RP in 2020. Arb. 2 eligible and should be offered.  Made $1.2 mill in 2020.  See a raise to around $3.0 for 2021

Taylor Rogers:  Although Rogers clearly regressed this season, his contract likely brings him back, but not necessarily in closer role for 2021.  Rogers is Arb 3 eligible after making $4.45 mill this year.  I project a salary of $5.5 for next season.

 

Add those 6 RPs to other roster slots and you see a payroll in the area of $105 mill for 23 of our 25 man roster for 2021.

 

Twins total payroll for 2019 was $125mill.  So, the way I figure--Falvey and mgmt have $20-25 mill to spend on 3 free agents/trade acquisitions-----1SP and 2 solid RPs with 1 of those RPs being a hard throwing closer with experience and a past track record of success.

 

I havent forgot about the following 3 hitters that all could play vital roles next season:

Brent Rooker

Trevor Larnach

Royce Lewis

 

With the lost 2020 season--playing regular games I see all 3 starting the season in minors; Lewis at AA and Larnach and Rooker back in AAA at Rochester.  

 

 

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  First of all, the sky isn't falling.  This is a good baseball team that had a couple tough days.  They will continue to be a very good baseball team next year.  

  Second, the coaching staff.  I was worried from day 1 when James Rowson left to be the bench coach/offensive coordinator in Miami.  Big question...why did Rocco/Falvine not just give him the same position here?  Shelten was headed to Pittsburgh.

  Third, Rocco.  I love the guy.  I do.  He is smart and even-keeled, which works great over a 162-game schedule.  I thought he was too wishy-washy when Donaldson got tossed late in the season....Rocco should have stood there and defended his player until he got ejected.  I felt the same today.  Say what you want about Eddie....Rocco should have had his back.  I was clueless as to why on Earth Jeffers was hit for earlyish in game 1 by Garver.  It's not 2019 and Garver hasn't been that guy since day one (James Rowson where are you?!). 

  Last, lifting Berrios.  I'm an admitted Twins apologist.  The players are far better than I could dream of.  FO, coaches and manager are far smarter than me.  I'm 53 years old and that was the single most frustrating/maddening decisions I've seen a Twins manager make.  You want the man to be your top pitcher.  He was throwing great.  He's thrown 75 pitches.  Unbelievable.  Analytics and their stats have made the game almost impossible to watch anymore.

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Offensively if you think you can simply bash the ball ofer the fence regularily game after game and win playoff series that way you must have missed decades of baseball. Bombas are great fun, but they get harder to hit the further you get into the playoffs. Offense built on swinging from the heels is simply unsustainable. 
 

This teams defense may have looked somewhat better this year, but with the loss of Donaldson and Sanó at first, Polanco at SS, and Arraez at 2B this isn’t exactly a gold glove group. And as is often the case, the weak links showed up big time.

 

Then the team gets two excellent starts and for some inexplicable reason Rocco sets them after 5. There just doesn’t seem to be any rationale for that move in a playoff game. His handling of pitchers, and pinch hitters bordered on bizarre. I don’t know if those ideas came from the spreadsheet, or a lack of experience but it certainly didn’t indicate any feel for the game. 

 

Lastly, enough with the whining about the strike zone. Yesterday it was said it was "the worlds smallest zone". If you can’t hit when a pitcher is forced to zone it, then it’s doubtful you ever will. And the umpire didn’t run into outs, kick ground balls, and jerk pitchers who were on a roll! 

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  One thing I do know about sports is this....teams are a direct reflection of their coach/manager.  Rocco has a perfect mentality for a regular-season....not too high, not too low, tomorrow's another day, all that.  What Rocco hasn't show is the ability to manage with a sense of urgency and the Twins over the last two days didn't play with any sense of urgency.  You canNOT play the same way in the playoffs as you do during a regular season.  

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There are a lot of issues to address.

 

Maeda definitely helped the rotation, and Pineda has earned his keep.  Berrios is streaky - but he can be "streaky good."

 

The issue is offense.  It's been offense all this season.

 

For all the "Bomba-stuff," we're not playing slow pitch softball.  I'm told 51% of our runs in the regular season came from HR's ... maybe the talking heads got that wrong, but if they didn't, we either doubled the HR production of the next best team, or we were PATHETIC with the rest of what you'd call "offense."

 

When postseason comes, "Slow-Pitch SB games" go out the window; a team has to be able to "actually hit," and this one didn't.

 

Where are the problems?

 

Buck can't stay on the field, and - at least for me - I've reached the end of my "bad luck" rope.   It's happened too many times.  He doesn't do us a lick of good if he can't play.

 

Sano is a complete mess.  Either he learns to put the bat on the ball or he becomes Dave Kingman - if that.

 

Rosario . . . . stupid, stupid, stupid.  You DO NOT get thrown out of a playoff game.  He's too old, too much of a veteran, to be that selfish.

 

The whole approach to hitting needs to be reevaluated.  Too many guys stunk up the joint this year.  TOO MANY.

 

A whole lot of people need to take a look in the mirror & hold the guy looking back accountable.

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Yes. Having a healthy Buxton and Donaldson in these two games would have been a huge help.

I'm going to have to disagree with you there. What was our record without Buxton and Donaldson this year? Certainly not bad enough to cause two consecutive lifeless losses at home, as the favored team, with a favored starting pitching matchup. Odds are, a healthy Buxton and Donaldson would have joined the malaise; at best, they may have occasionally reached base only to be stranded by their teammates.

 

And it's not like other clubs aren't missing players. Houston was missing Yordan Alvarez, Justin Verlander, and Roberto Osuna.

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Twins 2021:

Hitters

C-Jeffers/Garver

1B-someone who can hit

2B-Arraez

3B-Donaldson

SS-Lewis

LF-Larnach

CF-someone who can stay healthy

RF-Kirilloff

DH-Cruz

Bench-Polanco, Rooker, Wade, Blankenhorn

GoodBye- Avila, Astudillo, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Adrianza, Cave, Marwin.

Pitchers

SP-Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Balazovic, add 1

RP-Clippard, Wisler, Alcala, add 3 Hill possible resign for a long relief role.

I've seen enough of May, Stashak, Duffey, Rogers and Romo. Not impressed with Dobnak. Let's move forward, not sideways.  

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2020 has been a bad year all around. I did not enjoy this baseball season. I missed the minor league games and the fantastic minor league TD reports. The statistics, which help make baseball so important to me, were meaningless this year. We couldn't go to the ball parks. Covid-19 has been awful. At least we have intelligent, mature, polite   politicians who are governing us...oh wait ...did you watch the great debate last night. Good grief! . 

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No problem taking our Berrios who gave up back to back walks. Problem wasn’t starting or relief pitching. It was an anemic offense. Next Spring should see competition from Lewis, Kiriloff, Rooker, Larnach, Balosovic, Duran, Colina and more. It’s time to shake things up and light a fire under this team.

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Imagine Rocco trying to pull Jack Morris after five innings!  Imagine Kirby Puckett striking out at key moments instead of getting the hits that saved the games and series.  Think of the bloop hits and hard running, the defense and energy that gave us our last championship and then try to find anything comparable this year.  

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Sign Cruz to 2 more years. Trade every other bat. Replace them with as many top prospects as we can and coach them up. Pick up an effective hitting coach. Only bring intelligent Men into this org. who are hard-working, goal-oriented, team-players whose only mission is to get on base. Give starters more leverage to manage their own game situations. Smarter, more mature players don't scare easy when faced with adversity, or even a few men on base. 

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Old adage in baseball...not how many you get, but when. That applied to our bullpen. when it mattered most, they failed to do their job. In a close game your job is 1) throw strikes and 2) don't give up runs. their guys did that, ours didn't. We lost. Pitchers have part of the blame.

 

Our hitters...made the bullpen look real bad by not providing them with anything.

Buxton...an enigma to me. Could be the most exciting player in baseball. But he's not. And his hitting tailed way off during the final week to 10 days. he started swinging at all those pitches out of the zone like he did in past years.

Donaldson...minimal contributions this year. Love his 'd'...not his bat or his childish temper, which cost us at least one game. (I know thats subjective....but you gotta be a team player when the games count the most) And he's chronically hurt and that may not ever get better.

Sano--disappeared. Polanco...have no clue what happened to him. Ditto Garver. Both were terrible. Gonzo and Cave...expendable. Rosario...not going to change him. He may be gone. Kepler...can be hot in stretches and then he also disappears.

Rogers and Romo...both failed. Rogers, most the season. Romo when it counted most.

 

Too many k's. Way too many. Too much reliance on the HR...and everyone here at one time or another has said, you can't rely on those in the playoffs. The team that was supposed to hit a lot of them hit none, but Houston won one game with a HR late in game two.

 

Well, we are getting all of this out of our system today...a day of real disappointment. But it's not easy just forgetting 18 straight playoff losses. Nobody has ever done that before. Like the Buffalo Bills 'wide right' in the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, Twins will have to live with this ignominy until they finally win a game and series.(or Super Bowl) thats just the way it is.

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Every non-pitcher should be on the market. Even the players who did fairly well have serious issues: Cruz (age), Arraez (knees), Buxton (an assortment).

 

The rest are now established sub-par performers. Kepler with a career OPS of .760 turns 28 in February, Sano who strikes out too much and always will turns 28 in May, Polanco is not the hitter we thought he was turns 28 in July. Donaldson isn't very good after all and has chronic calf problems and he turns 35 in 2 months.

 

This engine, as constructed, is finished!

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I thinPlayers didn't play.   That's just baseball.   k you sugar coated it a little bit.    Duffey also gave up all 3 of the inherited runners from Dobnak last year which were credited to Dobnak.    Very little of this is on the pitchers.   They gave up 7  runs and at least 4 of them were preventable with good defense.   Twins scored a total of 2 runs.   Houston might have pitched well, but they didn't pitch that well.   We recently scored more of two Cy Young front runners.   Its on the players.   Wait til next year.

Maybe Duffey should go fishing with Rocco if Twins again make the post season next year. They always choke when it matters most.

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I am concerned that the three younger players we locked into long term contracts all disappointed this year. And that is putting it nicely. I also think Rocco might need to be not so dogmatic about his decisions. Every time you replace a pitcher who is doing fine there is a substantial chance that guy doesn’t have it that day. Dusty out managed Rocco by a huge margin.

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I agree with some of the above, and maybe taking a step back and retooling a bit.  

Rosario is probably gone, they need to make a decision between Garver and Jeffers (I prefer Jeffers), Gonzales will probably go to a club that is closer to winning, and knows how, same with Cruz if the Twins cannot retain him.

Pitching, would like to see them resign Hill, and maybe extend Pineda.  See what they can do with Berrios and if nothing shop him.

Twins need to find leaders in the clubhouse, seem to be lacking except for a couple of veterans.  Should be an interesting offseason.

Yep, we need more leaders. Seem's like Cruz and maybe Donaldson (even though we didn't see it this year) are the only leaders. Guys like Polanco, Kepler, Sano, and Garver are great but it seems like I never see them embracing a teammate or hyping the guys up. Obviously I'm not in the dugout but I don't think I'm going out a limb by saying this.

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I started watching this team while I was a teenager in 2002, after I'd moved to Minnesota the summer before high school and had nothing else to do. They went to the ALCS that year and had no real business being there and they captured my imagination. I am now in my mid-30s and I have been following them ever since. Grown up, in the middle of a career, I have children, a house. My life progresses and yet this Twins team does not. While everything changes around me all the time, there is one thing I can count on. The Twins will be a disappointment. They will make you wonder why you spend all your time and energy on it. But, same as every other damn year, I will watch it again the next. The seasons will pass, sun will rise and set, tides will roll in and out, and the Twins will still suck. See you all next spring.

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Every non-pitcher should be on the market. Even the players who did fairly well have serious issues: Cruz (age), Arraez (knees), Buxton (an assortment).

 

The rest are now established sub-par performers. Kepler with a career OPS of .760 turns 28 in February, Sano who strikes out too much and always will turns 28 in May, Polanco is not the hitter we thought he was turns 28 in July. Donaldson isn't very good after all and has chronic calf problems and he turns 35 in 2 months.

 

This engine, as constructed, is finished!

I think Polanco can be fixed. He seemed to have some pretty obvious mechanical issues when hitting left-handed, and I think if attended to, he could be back to his usual self in 2021. Kepler is simply an enigma and I'm tired of Sano. 

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Initially, I was going to refrain from saying anything since I didn't want to knee jerk any thoughts. A few hours later, I feel calm enough and compelled to be able to speak/write calmly.

 

Just understand, while ever the optimist, I am PO'd, disappointed, frustrated and borderline embarrassed. But calm now, lol.

 

1] Baldelli has done a great job thus far, even if I disagree with him on occasion. Calls for him to be replaced are emotional and misguided at best. That being said, I believe he pulled Maeda and Berrios too early. It's the playoffs! You play for NOW and not tomorrow. You may love and trust your pen, but when you have a pair of quality SP doing their job, you trust in them first and shorten the game. Absolutely do not agree with removing Jeffers in game 1. Made zero sense then and makes ZERO sense now.

 

2] The starting pitching did not lose these games. Maeda and Berrios were GOOD, and had mkre in the tank, IMO. And while there was some crumbling of the pen, to be sure, I don't feel the pen really lost these games. (Mkre on that to come). Despite some less than stellar moments late in the year, the Twins had one of the best pens around this season. Time and again they performed including bullpen games when injuries affected the rotation.

 

There remains room for improvement, and there will be a couple new faces via trade, FA or promotion of young arms. And yes, I want May back. You don't just walk away from arms like that with mostly good results, especially when you see another level oh so close for them to reach.

 

Just being calm, I'm excited as can be that the rotation in 2021 begins with Maeda and Berrios and Pineda. The Twins then need a healthy Odorizzi back for next season, OR, an equivalent Oddorizi/Maeda FA signing or trade acquisition. May seem easier said than done, but they've already done it. Honestly, might be best to bank on Oddo, a known quantity. They then need a decent, smart move similar to Pineda, Hill or Bailey type to compete with Dobnak and prospects.

 

The pitching was good in 2020 and mostly good in these 2 vastly disappointing games. There is room to continue to grow and get even better. But again, I don't think pitching lost this series.

 

That brings us to the #1 problem with this frustrating and embarrassing early exit:

 

3] The offense/lineup needs to be re-worked. The problem is, who and how? Offense was remarkably down all across MLB this season. The Twins were absolutely not the only team to see nosedive in overall performance as a team, or from individuals. Honestly, do Garver, Kepler and Polanco, etc, need to be given up on and jettisoned because of a crazy, weird, mixed up season? If true, then there will be a TON of guys across baseball moved or given walking papers based solely on this crazy year. Sorry folks, it isn't happening. There will be a whole lot of "re-sets" for all teams in 2021.

 

Power is king in MLB, but it always has been. We all know this. There are a lot of ways to score runs and there still are today despite the changes in the game. But even 20/30/40 years ago, power has always been productive, proven and coveted. Maybe more so in the post season when you face top pitching and stringing together a series of hits to score becomes futile at times.

 

But there is a major difference between having POWER while also having the ability to HIT a ball somewhere and even make CONTACT. I can't and won't single out any player on this roster. Nor will I point an easy finger towards the hitting coaches. There is an ancient expression that goes: "those who live by the sword die by the sword". Unfortunately...covid, short ramp up, injuries, adjustments by the opposition, or bad luck for bad seasons for multiple players...the Twins didn't HIT well this season, especially when it mattered most.

 

How many times did a batter, a batter with power even, fail to get a runner in with something as simple as a sac fly? I get a SO is better than a double play. But dang it, sometimes putting the ball in play is much better than a SO or an infield/foul pop up!

 

With no blame pointed at any individual, the offense has been the most disappointing part of 2020 and this disappointing/frustrating early exit.

 

Is Arraez the only HITTER on the team as currently constructed? I'd like to think not when I look at the talent on hand, and past production. And maybe we can dismiss a lot of poor BA and OB to this whole crazy season. Or maybe the FO and coaching staff need to re-evaluate a few spots here and there and find a change or two that can provide more balance.

 

As for me, I am ecstatic there was baseball in 2020 and I enjoyed the hell out of watching my Twins have another great season, despite an ugly finish. They have won back to back banners and have a window of opportunity that still appears wide open when I look at the roster and what is coming up! And I will be kept a little bit warmer when winter hits due to the Hot Stove and impending 2021 ST.

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I know this might sound crazy, but I think this team needs a compete rebuild. Just burn it all down.

 

I'm all for trading away guys like Sano, Rosario, even Polanco and heck maybe Buxton. If you can get something for Donaldson at the deadline next year get rid of him as well.

 

We need a new team that comes up together, gets their tails handed to them and loses 100+ games for a couple of years.

 

I know it sounds crazy but frankly we're not going to go anywhere just filling in the cracks with 1-year contracts and signing castoffs and free agents. Tear the whole building down and start over from scratch.

I've seen the 100 plus loses during the season. I'll take a pass on seeing that again for a year or two. 

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