Same Old Story: Another Abject Postseason Failure

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I'm curious with an organizational answer. The Post Season failings are verging on 3 generations of line up, 3 managers, 2 1/2 front offices, Multiple high draft picks, and a dedication to analytics and 'new school thought'. Fine and good, but nothing has changed when it comes down to winning 2 of 3 games. Yes, everything is a crapshoot in post season, but we seem to roll the dice to crap the bed no matter who's managing, scouting, front-officing, or playing.

 

Analytics don't mean **** in the postseason. The big names always shine. Why is that? Why do no names rarely make a difference?

 

Flat out you need a few studs. You really don't have any. You have some good players, but you don't have a Kirby Puckett, you don't have a Frank Viola or a Jack Morris, you don't even have a Chuck Knoblauch.  

 

Look back in history and lets find how many low-paid, mid level players made much of a difference when it came to the postseason. These guys get paid for a reason. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Romo wasn't terrible in game one. Two bloopers then Polanco makes a Little League error. No earned runs and he should have been out of the inning with no damage.

The distinction between earned vs unearned runs is rarely as binary as their names suggest.

 

Part of good pitching is leaving a literal "margin for error" and in modern MLB that generally means missing bats and limiting walks. Romo failed to miss bats, giving up contact in all five at-bats (league batting average on balls in play is around .300, so giving up contact to 5 consecutive batters could easily produce 2 hits like we saw -- even on "bloopers" which are actually pretty hard to defend, as opposed to getting batters to hit it into the ground or pop it up). And of course Romo failed to limit walks by walking the 6th guy -- a guy who finished the series 0-for-7, had a 71 OPS+ for the season, and the bases were loaded so he had no place to put him anyway. No margin for error, as it was, due to his failure to miss bats earlier in the inning.

 

There have definitely been worse relief performances, but this was not an effective one, and was disappointing to see from the guy we trusted with the 9th inning in a tie playoff game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It's impossible to know. It's also undeniable the Twins have been better with Buxton in the lineup over the past year plus.

And I dont think there's any argument to be made Donaldson isn't better than Marwin Gonzalez.

I agree with both of those points. Like I said, I would rather have Buxton and Donaldson in the lineup than the alternatives.

 

But I don't agree with the other poster that having them would have been a "huge help." Buxton and Donaldson had a 124 and 131 OPS+ this year, respectively. Here are the MLB qualifiers who did that:

 

32 Xander Bogaerts
33 Ian Happ
34 Jeff McNeil
35 Robbie Grossman
36 Jake Cronenworth
37 Donovan Solano
38 Chris Taylor
39 Kole Calhoun
40 Tommy La Stella
41 Michael Brantley
42 Mark Canha
43 Kyle Lewis
44 Alex Verdugo
45 Wilmer Flores
46 Willy Adames

 

Some good players, some good seasons in that group, but nothing that suggests to me the difference between beating the Astros and what actually happened. Especially given Buxton's streakiness and Donaldson's age -- I suspect an experienced team in the playoffs would not use the same approach that our AL Central opponents used in pitching to Buxton earlier this season, and while still solid, Donaldson's days of putting a team on his back with exemplary performance seem like they are in the rear view mirror.

 

Of course, it's all subjective, so I don't doubt others will disagree. But it seems too simple and rational, in the face of the irrational postseason performances we've seen from the Twins time and time again.

[h2oface]

 

Romo wasn't terrible in game one. Two bloopers then Polanco makes a Little League error. No earned runs and he should have been out of the inning with no damage.

 

Soft contact bloopers count. A win is a win. A hit is a hit. If you have loaded the bases with two outs, even with the error, you are responsible. If you walk in the run, you suck. Add that to the 3 runs on Sunday.... he really sucks,

[MABB1959]

Horrible and disappointing and that is putting it mildly.  This was our time and now it is very close to rebuilding time and we have not won a single game since the must have to win Target field was built.  Blame can go everywhere.   My biggest complaint about this year was pulling Mehta and Berrios in the 5th inning or around 75 pitches I think they wanted to stay in they are both COMPETITORS who want to win anything else is a failure.   What the flip was Baldelli saving them for?

 

Buxton must have been cleared to play so why was one of our best on the bench?    Is he a big baby that can't play with a hang nail or is it management trying to save for something?  If he is that big of a baby get rid of him now.

 

The whole bunch of them either played like a deer in headlights!  Not professional at all!

 

 

[madtowntwin]

Hello everyone - Thanks for "Licking Twin Wounds" with me after a painful couple of days.....A few comments and observations to share about an all to brief Minnesota postseason (Again!!)

 

In terms of managing the starting pitching I see a difference between the removal of Maeda vs. Berrios. Maeda is playoff experienced and crafty enough that he should have been left on the mound with the bullpen up and warming.Game One in a 3 Game Series is HUGE. Berrios seemed psyched out after the Brantley at bat and carried it to the next hitters. I sensed it and so did Baldelli. God Brantley kills us....Hopefully he ends up in the NL next year....OR our our DH?? Bullpen use - I was fine with all in all. Yes Romo faltered in the Red series as well as the Wild Card. He won't be back. But in general a reasonably good performance. It was a bandaid stretched too thin to cover an offense that underperformed. 

 

The turning point of yesterday's game for me was the Arraez play at the plate. I do not put this on Luis. It was a bad decision by Diaz and not the first. He's gone. Every hitter looked more lost this year except Cruz. I don't thinks it's coincidental that Rowson departs and the hitting declined. Varela and Hernandez are relieved. Baldelli has a lot on his plate in terms of game management and did underperform somewhat...But putting fire in the belly of players comes from Team Player Leaders and the bench coach. Donaldson not being on the field hurt in a number of ways. We can do better than Mike Bell - We need analytics and emotion to counter Rocco's calm demeanor.

 

In terms of player movement and management in the off season I lean toward trusting the Twin's Brass. Covid-19 changed everything...As a Critical Care RN I have a certain dread for the upcoming Winter and baseball could well find itself in another strange twilight come Spring. I'm hoping that Levine / Antony have fingers on the pulse of this team and make the necessary moves based on appropriate insight. Generally I've been impressed with their drafts and team structuring thus far. The Hot Stove is just around the corner. I look forward to all your comments. Health to you all. 

[MABB1959]

 

Analytics don't mean **** in the postseason. The big names always shine. Why is that? Why do no names rarely make a difference?

 

Flat out you need a few studs. You really don't have any. You have some good players, but you don't have a Kirby Puckett, you don't have a Frank Viola or a Jack Morris, you don't even have a Chuck Knoblauch.  

 

Look back in history and lets find how many low-paid, mid level players made much of a difference when it came to the postseason. These guys get paid for a reason. 

Our studs or so called studs are here but they have not been managed well by anyone.  Sano all sorts of trouble and this year he really couldn't hit.  Buxton biggest baby ever!  The rest seem to play inconsistent baseball, you see a glimmer of a star one year and then gone the next.  Berrios should have went all 9 yesterday.  No one scored anyway.  Cruz is a good DH maybe we could do better.  If i could keep 3 players I would go with Berrios Cruz and Mehta.  I am pretty sure they all would prefer to play on a different team anyway.  Imagine Berrios in Pin Stripes!   Buxton would not be babied like he is here.  

[ashbury]

It's impossible to know. It's also undeniable the Twins have been better with Buxton in the lineup over the past year plus.

 

And I dont think there's any argument to be made Donaldson isn't better than Marwin Gonzalez.

 

Doesn't matter, ultimately.

I am lukewarm about Donaldson's ability to contribute, but I've always been a big Buxton fan. Still I am starting to want our front office to explore trading away our stellar center fielder.

 

We would have been better had Josh and Byron been available. That is a bit like the old joke, "if I had some eggs, I could eat ham and eggs, if I had some ham." We keep not having the ingredients we thought we got at the store just the other day.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not entirely hindsight: I wonder if winning that game Sunday, and drawing the White Sox in the first round, would have been a way to break the streak.

 

Not that the White Sox are necessarily worse than Houston (although they are less experienced), or that facing them would have been easy, but they would have been a familiar divisional foe. It would have felt less like a playoff game, and more like a few extra regular season games.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Our studs or so called studs are here but they have not been managed well by anyone.  Sano all sorts of trouble and this year he really couldn't hit.  Buxton biggest baby ever!  The rest seem to play inconsistent baseball, you see a glimmer of a star one year and then gone the next.  Berrios should have went all 9 yesterday.  No one scored anyway.  Cruz is a good DH maybe we could do better.  If i could keep 3 players I would go with Berrios Cruz and Mehta.  I am pretty sure they all would prefer to play on a different team anyway.  Imagine Berrios in Pin Stripes!   Buxton would not be babied like he is here.  

 

I don't call a strikeout king, and a guy that is always hurt and only productive for part of the season studs. These are supposed to be our cornerstones. I will say I put 25% of this postseason on Rocco for managing terribly, 50% of this loss on Buxton and Sano, 25% on the front office for feeling like these guys are Puckett and Hrbek. They are not. Far from it. 

 

Let's be real honest here. Until Buxton and Sano step up and carry this team, this core will NOT survive and advance. It's the same thing we've been saying for the last 3 seasons. Waiting for these 2 to finally get it and turn the corner...

 

 

[Darius]

My thoughts: Baldelli doesn’t get enough of the blame. The guy is lauded at every turn. When things go poorly, excuses are made for him.

 

IMO, the guy hasn’t been a very good manager here. He’s been handed an elite MLB team, with which anyone could succeed and he’s done nothing. Until he proves something, I’m out of the camp that approves of his style. His teams show no urgency and clearly can’t handle big situations. It’s embarrassing the way this team fold like a card table in these playoffs game. They’re scared little boys.

 

Also, how can Romo blowing the series surprise anyone? Aside from a short stretch with Rays, he’s been mediocre since he left the giants. It’s clear watching him that he’s been walking a tightrope for some time now. He’s been downright bad since running his mouth at the Indians. That’s said, I don’t blame Romo. I have to put it in Baldelli for either 1) Not seeing the obvious, or 2) Being afraid to tell Romo he’s not getting the 8th-9th innings of a tight playoff game anymore.

 

Same goes for Rogers. He’s been bad for a significant period of time now. But, he got 2 huge innings in the series (while Wilser got none).

 

I feel like I just watched the most poorly managed playoff series in the history of the MLB playoffs.

[Platoon]

Rocco’s persistent attempts to rest everyone all the time creates lineup instability all the time. The baseball players I have known liked knowing where they stood, and liked a general idea of what was their "job" on the team. Am I a lead off guy, a middle of the order guy, a bench guy, or maybe a regular only against lefties. 
 

Pitchers are no different. Am I a starter every 5th day? A long reliever/backup starter. Do I come in only to eat innings, or do I come in to get a big K under pressure? The 8th inning man, or the closer. Players are not robots, they don’t enjoy watching someone put into their slot for no particular reason. Yes they are pros and have to roll with it, but if you have no idea what your responsibilities are on a given day, it’s hard to excel. Certain players can handle the stress of a big moment be they hitters or pitchers. Others can’t.  Either Rocco can’t discern this, or just thinks that anyone on his spreadsheet can be plugged into any situation. 
 

Rocco may run a good clubhouse. Or he may not? I certainly would not know. But his mind boggling batting orders and his pitching substitutions leave an awful lot to be desired. I am sure he will be back, but I would hope in his third year he stabilizes his roster management. 

[jun]

 

Rosario gone: Definitely. If they started Kirilloff in that game, there's no way they don't trust him to play opening day, and he's much cheaper and quite possibly better.

 

Garver and Jeffers: I don't think much needs to be figured out. They'll probably split time and if Garver rebounds even a little bit they probably combine for one of the better tandems of catchers in baseball

 

Marwin: I think you have it backwards on Marwin. He barely eclipsed replacement level and was one of the worst regular hitters in all of baseball. He was the slowest runner on the team and that includes Cruz. Marwin looks absolutely cooked at 31 and quite possibly may not even get a major league deal with a bad team.

 

Cruz: Probably gone if he wants two years

 

Pitching: Would love to re sign Hill. Probably won't extend Pineda. The only reason they re signed him in the first place was how cheap he was from his extension. Berrios is going to hit the open market, that's a fact. I think I remember them offering him Aaron Nola money and he wanted more which is an absolute joke. They definitely won't trade him though.

Who is going to be on the roster if they let everyone go? Cruz needs to be brought back even if it's a two year deal. They need to extend Pineda, Pineda is at least consistent and he could eat up innings if needed. Pineda is a good #3 pitcher. Hill should be a good #4 pitcher. Odorizzi should be gone.

[one_eyed_jack]

One thing I've found mildly amusing in the aftermath of this latest playoff debacle is the local media folks and their "you can't win with Bomba-ball in the postseason, you need to be able to scratch out runs" hot takes.

 

Same people who 10-15 years ago were writing "you can't win with Piranha-ball in the postseason, you need power hitters who can hit the long ball".

 

[JustinCB]

 

Twins 2021:

Hitters

C-Jeffers/Garver

1B-someone who can hit

2B-Arraez

3B-Donaldson

SS-Lewis

LF-Larnach

CF-someone who can stay healthy

RF-Kirilloff

DH-Cruz

Bench-Polanco, Rooker, Wade, Blankenhorn

GoodBye- Avila, Astudillo, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Adrianza, Cave, Marwin.

Pitchers

SP-Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Balazovic, add 1

RP-Clippard, Wisler, Alcala, add 3 Hill possible resign for a long relief role.

I've seen enough of May, Stashak, Duffey, Rogers and Romo. Not impressed with Dobnak. Let's move forward, not sideways.  

 

Duffey is one of the best relievers in baseball!

 

[shimrod]

Molitor won manager of the year too. Front office couldn't wait to get rid of him. 

 

Rocco is young and inexperienced. If I'm the front office, I'm asking him what's going to change going forward. What have you learned? And if he doesn't have a good answer, he needs to be gone as well. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

The distinction between earned vs unearned runs is rarely as binary as their names suggest.

 

Part of good pitching is leaving a literal "margin for error" and in modern MLB that generally means missing bats and limiting walks. Romo failed to miss bats, giving up contact in all five at-bats (league batting average on balls in play is around .300, so giving up contact to 5 consecutive batters could easily produce 2 hits like we saw -- even on "bloopers" which are actually pretty hard to defend, as opposed to getting batters to hit it into the ground or pop it up). And of course Romo failed to limit walks by walking the 6th guy -- a guy who finished the series 0-for-7, had a 71 OPS+ for the season, and the bases were loaded so he had no place to put him anyway. No margin for error, as it was, due to his failure to miss bats earlier in the inning.

 

There have definitely been worse relief performances, but this was not an effective one, and was disappointing to see from the guy we trusted with the 9th inning in a tie playoff game.

That's a warped version of what happened. Romo wasn't lights out, although that inning was good enough to post no runs. That was an awful error by Polanco and never should have happened. Romo pitched good enough to get out of there with no damage by any reasonable expectation. Of the six batters he faced, 5 didn't hit the ball hard and then the walk. There was no excuse for the walk. Romo owned it after the game and took responsibility. If you don't like that Romo isn't a power pitcher that is fine. It doesn't change the fact that 5 of the 6 batters he faced in game one did not make solid contact. He was only replacement level this season and is probably not coming back to the Twins, although I do hope they re-sign him.

[flpmagikat]

 

One thing I've found mildly amusing in the aftermath of this latest playoff debacle is the local media folks and their "you can't win with Bomba-ball in the postseason, you need to be able to scratch out runs" hot takes.

 

Same people who 10-15 years ago were writing "you can't win with Piranha-ball in the postseason, you need power hitters who can hit the long ball".

 

I've found this take really interesting as well. I feel like the argument was, that in the playoffs, pitchers are better and therefore it's harder to string together multi hit innings, so relying on the long ball was more effective. Now we hear the opposite. The only constant seems to be the Twins failing at either approach.

[insagt1]

What is particularly annoying is that the Yankees are pretty good at both long ball and small ball, while also getting decent pitching. They don't win the WS every year, but they do win a few series along the way. They scored 22 runs in 2 games against maybe the best pitching staff in the playoffs. Yanks are fun to watch when you don't care who wins (of course I always hope they lose!)

[USAFChief]

That's a warped version of what happened. Romo wasn't lights out, although that inning was good enough to post no runs. That was an awful error by Polanco and never should have happened. Romo pitched good enough to get out of there with no damage by any reasonable expectation. Of the six batters he faced, 5 didn't hit the ball hard and then the walk. There was no excuse for the walk. Romo owned it after the game and took responsibility. If you don't like that Romo isn't a power pitcher that is fine. It doesn't change the fact that 5 of the 6 batters he faced in game one did not make solid contact. He was only replacement level this season and is probably not coming back to the Twins, although I do hope they re-sign him.

ONE strikeout changes that inning, too. But hitters know whats coming, and don't fear getting beat.

 

Romo is well passed his expiration date, and the Twins got what they earned entrusting a tied playoff game to a guy who can't hit 85. He didnt "pitch well enough." He got lucky that the soft one hop liner was hit right at a fielder, and should have been out of the inning, but he didnt pitch well.

 

I hope Romo is gone. Nothing against him, except he's not good.

 

I hope the Twins aim higher in the future.

[one_eyed_jack]

 

I've found this take really interesting as well. I feel like the argument was, that in the playoffs, pitchers are better and therefore it's harder to string together multi hit innings, so relying on the long ball was more effective. Now we hear the opposite. The only constant seems to be the Twins failing at either approach.

 

I think it also came from the fact that the Twins would get hits but end up stranding a lot of guys on base. Their opponents who had power hitters didn't have that problem. Take for example the 2009 ALDS.  The Twins outhit the Yankees 29-23 in that series but were outscored by the Yankees 15-6 thanks largely to the fact that the Yankees outhomered the Twins 6-0.  So it was all "you can't beat the Yankees with small ball, you need to have guys who can hit the ball over the fence to match their power."

 

Which wasn't wrong, but it's odd to see the "you can't rely on home run hitters to score runs in postseason" takes being advanced by the same people now.

 

But in any case, like you said, it's been the same basic story of the Twins unable to score runs both now and then.  Although I find these last 2 years, particularly this year, infinitely more frustrating due to the degree that the lineup underperformed.  Just a lot of really, really bad at-bats from guys who can and should do better.  I think Twins hitters not named Nelson Cruz were 5-for-53 this series?  That's just wretched.  

 

 

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Who is going to be on the roster if they let everyone go? Cruz needs to be brought back even if it's a two year deal. They need to extend Pineda, Pineda is at least consistent and he could eat up innings if needed. Pineda is a good #3 pitcher. Hill should be a good #4 pitcher. Odorizzi should be gone.

They're not letting everyone go. Rosario has literally 3 MLB ready replacements. In terms of Cruz, it'd be nice to have him back but two years is super risky for a 40 year old who fizzled to end the season and suffered from injuries. Filling the DH spot shouldn't be very difficult with all of the Twins options, albeit it won't likely be to the level Cruz has provided the last two years. Will Cruz definitely be able to provide that though?

 

Pineda is already signed through next season at which point he'll be 33 years old in 2022. He's barely eclipsed 30 starts in the last three years. The only reason they brought him back was because his price was so low from his suspension. With all of their young pitching in the minors and guys like Berrios and Buxton to focus on, they're not going to spend much if any time pursuing an extension with him.

[jun]

 

They're not letting everyone go. Rosario has literally 3 MLB ready replacements. In terms of Cruz, it'd be nice to have him back but two years is super risky for a 40 year old who fizzled to end the season and suffered from injuries. Filling the DH spot shouldn't be very difficult with all of the Twins options, albeit it won't likely be to the level Cruz has provided the last two years. Will Cruz definitely be able to provide that though?

 

Pineda is already signed through next season at which point he'll be 33 years old in 2022. He's barely eclipsed 30 starts in the last three years. The only reason they brought him back was because his price was so low from his suspension. With all of their young pitching in the minors and guys like Berrios and Buxton to focus on, they're not going to spend much if any time pursuing an extension with him.

How can you be sure that those prospects are ready? Kirilloff had only 4 ab in the ML. Rooker is not a good outfielder and he should be the first baseman of the future. Sano could either be traded or be the DH. Btw, I can understand not to sign Cruz because some of the prospects might be ready. However it's going to be impossible to replace his bat with any prospects they have. Pineda has been productive when he's healthy. If he didn't have the suspension, he could have made more starts. I don't think it makes sense not to extend him if he's healthy and productive again next season. Well since age is the concern here, I can see Twins only give him one year extension. Signing Berrios is not a sure thing. Buxton can never stay healthy. I don't think Twins have enough starting pitching in the minors. Well you can never have enough pitching. Prospects are prospects. They need to prove they belong in the ML. You should not put a minor league team on the major league roster.

[howeda7]

 

Gotta save those innings on the starting pitchers, so they'll be ready to go for next season!

Geez Baldelli, it's the playoffs - keep those good starting pitchers with low pitch counts in the game!

It wasn't out of caution for the pitchers. It was because his analytics said not to let either one face the line-up a 3rd time. But sometimes you have to use your eyes and see that they are locked in and ignore the analytics.

[howeda7]

 

One thing I've found mildly amusing in the aftermath of this latest playoff debacle is the local media folks and their "you can't win with Bomba-ball in the postseason, you need to be able to scratch out runs" hot takes.

 

Same people who 10-15 years ago were writing "you can't win with Piranha-ball in the postseason, you need power hitters who can hit the long ball".

To be fair, Bomba ball in October would have worked better in the Dome.

[Fritzderkat]

Over time

time and again

they've earned the reputation

That's why they call them the Twinks

[Cody Pirkl]

 

How can you be sure that those prospects are ready? Kirilloff had only 4 ab in the ML. Rooker is not a good outfielder and he should be the first baseman of the future. Sano could either be traded or be the DH. Btw, I can understand not to sign Cruz because some of the prospects might be ready. However it's going to be impossible to replace his bat with any prospects they have. Pineda has been productive when he's healthy. If he didn't have the suspension, he could have made more starts. I don't think it makes sense not to extend him if he's healthy and productive again next season. Well since age is the concern here, I can see Twins only give him one year extension. Signing Berrios is not a sure thing. Buxton can never stay healthy. I don't think Twins have enough starting pitching in the minors. Well you can never have enough pitching. Prospects are prospects. They need to prove they belong in the ML. You should not put a minor league team on the major league roster.

I have no way of knowing whether the prospects are ready but I have all of the confidence in the world in them if the Twins believe it. I agree that you can't replace Cruz's bat with any of these prospects, but he's getting to the age where you have to ask if Cruz himself can live up to what he's done for these last two years. With regards to Rooker, yes he's a bad outfielder but he also played 0 1B in his last season in the minors. Maybe we'll see that change, who knows.

 

With regards to pitching in the minors, I think you'd be surprised. Everyone knows Duran and Balazovic and they're probably the closest, but guys like Enlow and Canterino also look like solid future pieces. The Twins will still sign some pitching this offseason. I don't suggest the Twins field a full team of minor leaguers. The thing is though, someone like Kirilloff is considered to be one of the best hitters in the minor leagues and he's getting close. If they don't bring Eddie back, would you rather they just hand the job over to Cave? They're not going to sign George Springer or Marcell Ozuna. They'll throw in a backup for a month or two until they decide to bring Kirilloff up. Why not just do it right away? You can't just keep your top 100 prospects down for as long as the Twins are competing in case they come up and don't add to the team right away.