Article: Is Joe Mauer a lock for the HOF?

[Cody Christie]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1265-Is-Joe-Mauer-a-lock-for-the-HOF

[SockNet]

Interesting to think of. I think Mauer will be one of the first players to loose votes because he didn't live up to the expectations of his contract in the era of the mega deals, even if his numbers alone still suggest he should be in.

[gunnarthor]

I think he's pretty close. He needs 10 years, of course, but that comes after this season. He's still in his prime but his peak has been pretty darn good. I don't think he needs another 2009 season (although I hope he has several), just a few more solid Mauer years.

 

It'll be interesting to see how the voters look at him, long term. It's stereotyping but traditional voters won't like his low power numbers but will probably like his avg/batting titles. New voters will look at WAR which, b/c of it's defensive problems, probably underrates Mauer. He compares pretty well at this point of his career with other HOF catchers. Durability will be key but I think he rather easily makes it in.

[ThePuck]

Based on the history he's already made, the stuff he's already done that no one else at his position has, I'd be shocked beyond belief if he didn't make it

[DaveW]

As long as injuries don't derail his career and he can stick at catcher at least half time over the next couple years he should be a first ballot guy. He is already one of the best 3 or 4 catchers of all time.

[SmokedEyelids]

I think he needs to remain at catcher as long as possible to have a chance at making it in. As a catcher, his numbers and his value are astronomical. As a first baseman, or even third basemen, they'd merely be very good. If he's able to catch half of the season for the next 4-6 seasons, while still maintaining a high average, OBP, etc., I think he gets in.

[gunnarthor]

As long as injuries don't derail his career and he can stick at catcher at least half time over the next couple years he should be a first ballot guy. He is already one of the best 3 or 4 catchers of all time.

 

I think he's still out of the top 5 - Bench, Berra, Cochrane, Rodriguez, Piazza and Carter are all still above him. And don't underrate a guy like Campanella. Because of segregation, he didn't get to the majors until he was 26 and a fulltimer at 27. He played 10 years and won 3 MVPs. Fisk, Torre, Simmons and Mauer would all be in the discussion to round out the top 10.

[Seth Stohs]

As has been mentioned, he does need one more season, although even DL seasons count. so, he's a lock already. Yes, it'd be great for him to catch around half of the time for the next few years, but everything at this point is just bonus for HOF voters.

[lee_the_twins_fan]

Interesting to think of. I think Mauer will be one of the first players to loose votes because he didn't live up to the expectations of his contract in the era of the mega deals, even if his numbers alone still suggest he should be in.

 

Didn't live up to the expectations of his contract? You're joking, right?

 

In this day of moving players around to different positions, and the expectation to protect Mauer foKevin h of the rest of his contract will weigh on HOF voters, but he remains one of the best hitters in the game – average-wise, if not power-wise. His on-base percentage has been great, and I consider him to be a strong leader off the field as well. I fully expect Mauer – several years from now – to become a major league manager, perhaps even with the Twins.

 

Some people expect too much when a player signs a big contract. But I'd rather have Mauer than four Kevin Correias. He works hard and he's a great player.

 

It's premature to think about if Mauer could make the HOF. He's (hopefully) got another 10 years or so of baseball left in him. Let's ask this question again in five more years.

[East Coast Twin]

. . .Fisk, Torre, Simmons and Mauer would all be in the discussion to round out the top 10.

 

. . as would Bill Dickey.

[nick5253]

Interesting to think of. I think Mauer will be one of the first players to loose votes because he didn't live up to the expectations of his contract in the era of the mega deals, even if his numbers alone still suggest he should be in.

 

I highly disagree. I don't think voters ever consider the salary of a player when voting for HOF. And since salaries continue to rise, 5 years after Mauer has retired, 23 mil per year will seem like a small sum for a potential HOFer.

 

I have never understood why fans care about salaries and whether or not the player is 'earning' the salary. If you look at WAR and a simplified 5 mil per win, Mauer has greatly exceeded his salary and 'earned' quite a bit of that contract:

Career to Date Earnings: $85 Mil

Career to Date WAR: 40.1

 

Career to Date Value: $200.5 Mil

[Willihammer]

Well he has a MVP which should be good for at least 50% of the BBWAA votes automatically.

[Sssuperdave]

I can think of three scenarios, and in 2 of the 3 he makes the hall of fame.

 

Scenario #1 (most likely in my opinion): Mauer has another productive 5-10 years, no more MVPs or 1000+ OPS's like 2009, but quite a few years over .300, and maybe another batting title, evenutally changes positions. I think he's a hall-of-fame lock under this scenario.

 

Scenario #2: The wheels fall off.. for some reason or other, perhaps injury, his number revert to 2011 levels permanently. He makes it another 5 - 8 years, but isn't very good. I don't think he has quite enough to make the hall under this scenario, and fans are incensed at his contract.

 

Scenario #3: He has a tragic career ending injury ala Puckett. Like Puckett, I think he makes the hall of fame under this scenario. Yes, he doesn't quite have Puckett's slugging/power numbers, but he has a stretch of 9 years that is arguably the best 9-year offensive stretch for any catcher in history. I think voters would give him the benefit of the doubt that scenario #1 would have happened, and he gets in.

[ThePuck]

Well he has a MVP which should be good for at least 50% of the BBWAA votes automatically.

 

Tell that to Dale Murphy :-)

[jwestbrock]

I would say he has a very strong chance. It comes down to how much he catches the rest of the way. If he catches 80-110 games a year for at least 3-4 more years, which I think he would do if they were contending and needing to put the best lineup on the field most days, that would keep him considered a catcher to most people, which will help his chances.

 

He is sitting at 40.1 Fangraphs WAR (38.0 Baseball-Reference). That averages out to about 4.5 WAR/year. If he declines relatively steadily (by say 0.5 WAR/year) he would end up around 56 WAR, good for the back end of the top ten all-time for catchers and top 150 overall. Whether you believe in WAR or not, that is pretty good company. If he maintains a 4-5 WAR/year for a couple more years and then declines steadily, then we are talking about borderline top 5 for catchers and borderline top-100. Pretty good case then.

[Shane Wahl]

Barring career-ending injury in the next three years, yes, Joe Mauer is a lock for the HoF.

[Brian Mozey]

Joe Mauer well be in the hall of fame because numbers are the only thing they look at. He's a great guy off the field and on the field. Also he plays the game right without using drugs.

[Gardy32]

I highly disagree. I don't think voters ever consider the salary of a player when voting for HOF. And since salaries continue to rise, 5 years after Mauer has retired, 23 mil per year will seem like a small sum for a potential HOFer.

 

I have never understood why fans care about salaries and whether or not the player is 'earning' the salary. If you look at WAR and a simplified 5 mil per win, Mauer has greatly exceeded his salary and 'earned' quite a bit of that contract:

Career to Date Earnings: $85 Mil

Career to Date WAR: 40.1

 

Career to Date Value: $200.5 Mil

 

 

I can't speak for other people, but the main reason I care about players' salaries is that the team only has so much money to spend. We can argue about self-imposed caps by the Twins all day long, but when it comes down to it, they only spend so much on the players.

 

It's all about value. A team built around players earning less than they're "worth" should have money to go out and get that slugger on the free agent market. They can go get that SP that puts them over the edge. I want to have a team that's being paid $100M but WAR says should be paid $200M or $300M based on production. This year has basically been punted on, but rebuilding should mean shedding contracts that overpay (think Vernon Wells and Soriano) based on past production. Which is good for the long-term health of the organization. Then you build your nucleus by locking down consistent players for under market value, leading to an excess of money to fill out the roster with whatever you couldn't develop on the farm.

 

Basically I care about players' salaries because i think that getting better value out of current contracts leads to more wins and the potential to fill holes.

 

Sorry this was so basic and maybe even patronizing. I just think it's something that should be cared about and understood for everyone hoping for their team to get W's.

[mbgopher]

First, the player's contract shouldn't set the context of whether or not he was an elite player in his time. Salary has no impact on whether or not a candidate deserves entry.

 

Second, you say the "era of mega deals" as if this is a temporary phase that the game is seeing. I guess in theory it could be, but in all likelihood, contracts will become more and more ridiculous as teams lock up young talent early on (ex: Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen, etc.), straining the free agent market and driving up the market price of elite (ex: Zach Greinke) and mediocre players.

[Dave T]

Mauer will walk into the HOF on the first ballot, even if he finishes his career as a DH. What is this "nearly a lock" B.S.

Now, I think you can argue he is overpaid, considering the decline in his innings as a catcher. But with the ridiculous contracts being handed out to free agents these days, that argument is over as well. There's more money than talent in baseball these days.

[Shane Wahl]

He was underpaid every year he was healthy before 2011. In 2012 he was back right on the value of his contract.

[70charger]

I can't speak for other people, but the main reason I care about players' salaries is that the team only has so much money to spend. We can argue about self-imposed caps by the Twins all day long, but when it comes down to it, they only spend so much on the players.

 

It's all about value. A team built around players earning less than they're "worth" should have money to go out and get that slugger on the free agent market. They can go get that SP that puts them over the edge. I want to have a team that's being paid $100M but WAR says should be paid $200M or $300M based on production. This year has basically been punted on, but rebuilding should mean shedding contracts that overpay (think Vernon Wells and Soriano) based on past production. Which is good for the long-term health of the organization. Then you build your nucleus by locking down consistent players for under market value, leading to an excess of money to fill out the roster with whatever you couldn't develop on the farm.

 

Basically I care about players' salaries because i think that getting better value out of current contracts leads to more wins and the potential to fill holes.

 

Sorry this was so basic and maybe even patronizing. I just think it's something that should be cared about and understood for everyone hoping for their team to get W's.

 

What players are paid is important on a year-to-year level, and I agree that it's important to how the team accumulates wins. On the other hand, how often have you heard about the contract terms of a player who has been retired long enough to be eligible for hall consideration, much less whether those contract terms were reasonable under the circumstances? Never? Heck, given salary inflation, the "exorbitant" amounts paid to some of the top free agents of even 15 to 20 years ago look pretty quaint. I doubt it becomes a consideration for hall voters.

 

But perhaps more importantly, let's consider what would happen if it were a consideration. Not only would the Yankees' free publicity put many more Yankees in the hall of fame than is warranted, but that fact that enormous contracts burden the Yankees less than the Twins would mean that any Twin with an enormous contract would be hobbled while any Yankee with the same contract would receive fair consideration. And God forbid you spent your career with the Rays (I'm looking at you, Mr. Longoria). It wouldn't be the Hall of Fame, it would be the Hall of Yankees (and now maybe Sox and Dodgers).

 

Contract terms should not be a consideration. Thankfully, I don't think they really are.

[Mike Sixel]

I would say he is close right now, but needs 2-3 more good years, and not to have 5 bad years that leave a bad memory in voters' minds. The recency effect has played havoc on a few candidates.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Mauer is almost a lock at this point. Two more very good seasons and he's in unless he's caught in a dog-fighting ring or something along those lines. Writers will be falling over themselves to vote in a guy who exudes professionalism, is quiet and humble, and played for his hometown team his entire career. New age SABR guys will love his WAR and OBP while traditionalists will vote him in for his batting championships and Silver Slugger awards.

[snepp]

The hair, don't forget the hair. Silky smooth....

[Rosterman]

His value is as a catcher. He HAS to catcher a greater percentage of games. He can be another Yogi if he keeps his average up, wins another title or two...but he has to be recognized as one of the greater catchers. Right now, any play at DH at this stage (and the next 4-5 years) diminishes his chances. He can go in as a Twins icon if he plays beyond his current contract and gets those 20-years of same team service under his belt. Sorta the Ripken factor. But he could also fall into the Mattingly category. But it is always hard to ignore a lifetime .325 hitter with 15+ years of play.

[Brock Beauchamp]

His value is as a catcher. He HAS to catcher a greater percentage of games. He can be another Yogi if he keeps his average up, wins another title or two...but he has to be recognized as one of the greater catchers. Right now, any play at DH at this stage (and the next 4-5 years) diminishes his chances. He can go in as a Twins icon if he plays beyond his current contract and gets those 20-years of same team service under his belt. Sorta the Ripken factor. But he could also fall into the Mattingly category. But it is always hard to ignore a lifetime .325 hitter with 15+ years of play.

 

The Mattingly comp makes sense on the surface but it's not a good comp when you drill down on the players. Mattingly had a career WAR of 45. Mauer isn't even 30 yet and his WAR is 40. Mattingly had one batting title and one MVP as a first baseman (the most power-laden position on the diamond). Mauer has three batting titles and one MVP as a catcher (the least power-laden position on the diamond).

 

If Mauer has two more seasons with a .320 average, .400 OBP, and plays 80 games behind the plate, he's in. He'll be close to a 50 WAR player at that point. If he catches more than 80 games (and I think he will, even JR has said as much), that WAR is even higher.

[ashbury]

For a lock? Mauer needs a few more All-Star seasons, and needs significant MVP votes in a few more seasons, and needs to rack up healthy career totals. Five more healthy years with three of them at an All-Star level, and we're talking lock. Something below that, but still decent longevity, and his chances remain good.

[Brandon]

Looks like he'll end up catching 10k to 12k innings which if he can return too his gold glove defense that won't loose him votes. I do think a 4th batting title will really help his cause and because he is a catcher he won't be held to the same offensive standards as OF and 1B but he will be held to higher offensive standards. I think Posey would keep Mauer from getting some votes as when Mauer is eligible they will compare to Posey as well. I also think Higher WAR totals and batting average totals will be what gets him in. (hense the comment about an extra batting title).

[ashbury]

I think Posey would keep Mauer from getting some votes as when Mauer is eligible they will compare to Posey as well.

 

By the time Mauer is eligible for votes, Posey's career will already be in much clearer focus - who's to say Posey isn't a first-baseman by that time? A lot can happen.