Notebook 9/27: One More Big Game Before the Playoffs

[Cooper Carlson]

The end of the regular season is finally already here and the Twins have a ton to play for. The unlikely comeback to win the division can be capped off today and the Twins would be able to hang a new banner. Or they will fall to second place and likely play the Yankees.TODAY

Reds @ Twins: 2:10 CT

 

Twins Starter: Rich Hill, RHP 3.27 ERA

 

Rich Hill will potentially make his final start in a Twins uniform today. He has been pretty much exactly what the Twins were hoping, and they will be asking for one more solid start to close out the season. In seven starts this year, Hill has pitched 33.0 innings with a 3.27 ERA and 27 strikeouts. The 40 year old has certainly seen age catch up to him but the Twins need just one more good start.

 

His last outing was the best one of his season as he went seven outstanding innings and gave up just one run. It was his first time this season going past five innings and he didn’t seem to struggle. He still took the loss, but that doesn’t matter. Hill has made three inter-league starts this season against the Cardinals, Cubs, and Brewers.

 

Reds Starter: Sonny Gray, RHP 3.73 ERA

 

If you haven’t seen Gray pitch for the Reds yet, you’re in for a treat. This isn’t the same guy from Oakland or the one who couldn't pitch for the Yankees. Since going to Cincinnati, Gray has become one of the best starters in the game. His K/9 is over 12.0 and his FIP is sitting at 2.95 this season. He will allow his fair share of walks, so expect the Twins to be patient.

 

Gray has made two inter-league starts this season, but they were two of his first three outings this year. He has not faced an American League team since, but with the universal DH there is no longer a big difference. Still, traveling into a completely new area to play a game can be challenging so hopefully the Twins can score early and often.

 

Twins Lineup

 

News & Notes:

 

-The final game of the season is also the most important one so that’s fun. If the Twins win, they win the division. If the White Sox lose, the Twins win. If both win or lose, the Twins win. The only way to lose the division is if the Twins lose and Sox win.

 

-The Twins could still play five different opponents in the postseason depending on how today’s game shakes out. It’s extremely complicated but the Yankees, Astros, Blue Jays, Indians, and White Sox are all possible.

 

Here's a handy flow chart from MLB.com's Do-Hyoung Park:

 

 

-With the win last night, Minnesota clinched home field advantage for the first round. This means all of the necessary wild card games will be played at Target Field before everyone moves into a bubble.

 

AROUND THE AL CENTRAL

 

1. MIN 36-23 (-)

2. CWS 35-24 (1.0 GB)

3. CLE 34-25 (2.0 GB

4. KCR 25-34 (11.0 GB)

5. KCR 23-34 (12.0 GB)

 

Tigers 4, Royals 3

Pirates 8, Indians 0

White Sox 9, Cubs 5

 

See Also:

 

Forecasting Sano in October

Records the Twins Can Set This Weekend

If These Three Excel, the Twins Will Go Far This October

 

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[stringer bell]

In this strange season, I think winning home field is more important than winning the division, although it would be nice to be the "home" team in subsequent series. For the record, I do want the Twins to win the division and #2 seed, but health of players is more important. Secondly, it would be great to see Sanó, Garver and Cruz get dialed in right now. Kepler looks like he's found his swing, Rosario is going well and Arraez demonstrated that he could get out of bed on Christmas morning and go 3 for 4. 

[USAFChief]

Win the division. Flags fly forever.

[Trov]

I wish Cleveland would have won yesterday, that would have allowed for a win by them and we would have won division too.  Either way, we have home field locked down, now just who will we play.  It would be nice to win the division and be the 2 seed, because then we will be home team most of the way through playoffs if keep moving on.  Yes, at neutral site, but still an advantage.  

[Nine of twelve]

 

I wish Cleveland would have won yesterday, that would have allowed for a win by them and we would have won division too.  Either way, we have home field locked down, now just who will we play.  It would be nice to win the division and be the 2 seed, because then we will be home team most of the way through playoffs if keep moving on.  Yes, at neutral site, but still an advantage.  

A 2 seed would install us as the home team for the first round and the ALDS. We would be the home team in the ALCS if Tampa Bay is eliminated before then.

[ClosetFan]

Odds of facing each opponent in the first round (if the outcome of each game were 50/50):

Indians 44%

White Sox 19%

Yankees 19%

Astros 12%

Blue Jays 6%

[strumdatjaguar]

After wild card series, the playoffs move to “the bubble”. So the only “home field” advantage is “last ups”. What else is there?