Article: State of the Starting Corps

[Riverbrian]

At least the Cubs filled their rotation with some guys that can have some upside and get some strikeouts.

 

Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some groundballs - it's more democratic.

 

Liriano K/9 9.59 ERA 5.34

Doubront 9.34 4.86

Lincecum 9.19 5.18

Happ 8.76 4.79

Norris 8.82 4.65

Arrieta 8.56 6.20

 

Richard 4.40 3.99

Diamond 4.68 3.54

Hudson 5.13 3.62

Quintana 5.35 3.76

Colon 5.38 3.43

Harrison 5.61 3.29

 

Feldman Baker Viilenueva Jackson Upside? Maybe... We will see. You could be right... You maybe right on three or two or one... Maybe none..

 

I think the Cubs have a plan and everything looks sensible to me so far. I'm not knocking the Cubs... Time will tell.

[edavis0308]

If the Cubs aren't good, they have some guys with trade value. Also, our defense better improve significantly or our soft tossin' groundball staff is In for a world of hurt (though the crash Davis ref is appreciated). They may have paid more for their pickups than we did.. but they ended up with better assets.

[Riverbrian]

If the Cubs aren't good, they have some guys with trade value. Also, our defense better improve significantly or our soft tossin' groundball staff is In for a world of hurt (though the crash Davis ref is appreciated). They may have paid more for their pickups than we did.. but they ended up with better assets.

 

I'm with ya on the Defense. When I think about Twins Baseball... It's the defensive side of the game for the past few years that seems Un-Twins like. It's probably why I liked Revere as much as I did and couldn't stand Delmon Young and Danny Valencia. I still think the ball that was got to... That shouldn't have been gotten to... Is the most exciting thing in baseball and I think it gives your team a boost. I want that back.

[old nurse]

Haha on the Lannan incentives. He might make 2 of the incentives. To reach arb value would mean he has pitched more games than he ever has as well as 60 more innings. For what Storey does the Twins have a better version in the bullpen called Duensing.

[snepp]

For what Storey does the Twins have a better version in the bullpen called Duensing.

 

Did Storey become a low-k left-hander that excels primarily at getting left-handed hitters out?

 

 

You do realize the two have almost nothing in common as pitchers, right?

[Shane Wahl]

The Cubs have done well. They have been aggressive and--outside of the Feldman signing--didn't settle for junk. Feldman, Correia, and Lannan are all the same--bad.

 

Jackson settling in at some place should be good for him and he should improve. A healthy Baker fits right in at the 3 spot. Villanueva is great low risk/high reward guy for the 4 spot. And then there's Feldman. They still are the Cubs.

 

The Twins have part of that equation filled. They have the two pitchers who are legitimate (ala Baker and Villanueva), and they certainly have 4-7 pitchers contending to be Feldman. The key early on is simply going to be Hendriks and some one of Deduno/DeVries/Walters. Pelfrey isn't going to be ready, Correia sucks, and Gibson should not be used early at all outside of 3-5 inning starts in Rochester until June.

[jokin]

The Cubs have done well. They have been aggressive and--outside of the Feldman signing--didn't settle for junk. Feldman, Correia, and Lannan are all the same--bad.

 

Jackson settling in at some place should be good for him and he should improve. A healthy Baker fits right in at the 3 spot. Villanueva is great low risk/high reward guy for the 4 spot. And then there's Feldman. They still are the Cubs.

 

The Twins have part of that equation filled. They have the two pitchers who are legitimate (ala Baker and Villanueva), and they certainly have 4-7 pitchers contending to be Feldman. The key early on is simply going to be Hendriks and some one of Deduno/DeVries/Walters. Pelfrey isn't going to be ready, Correia sucks, and Gibson should not be used early at all outside of 3-5 inning starts in Rochester until June.

 

I know it's personal preference, but I like Baker over 2 comps and Villanueva by a nose over his comps. The trouble with your analogy for Feldman is I already used up your "sucks" comp on Correia, Feldman is better by a nose.

 

Where's our comp for Jackson again? And we paid a high price to get Worley, one the Cubs didn't have to expend.

[old nurse]

When did Story become more than a 40th person on a roster?

[SweetOne69]

The current roster is projected to be around $80M. That means the Twins have plenty of money available to sign Marcum, Saunders, Brett Myers, or Erik Bedard and still get infield help.

[old nurse]

The current roster is projected to be around $80M. That means the Twins have plenty of money available to sign Marcum, Saunders, Brett Myers, or Erik Bedard and still get infield help.

What infield help is out there to get as a free agent?

[beckmt]

Twins have plenty of outfielders coming. Cubs have added some pitching and have not fixed their offensive or defense. I expect a couple of more low risk, high reward signings of starters and then see what sticks. (Harden hopefully)

[nicksaviking]

Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some groundballs - it's more democratic.

 

Liriano K/9 9.59 ERA 5.34

Doubront 9.34 4.86

Lincecum 9.19 5.18

Happ 8.76 4.79

Norris 8.82 4.65

Arrieta 8.56 6.20

 

Richard 4.40 3.99

Diamond 4.68 3.54

Hudson 5.13 3.62

Quintana 5.35 3.76

Colon 5.38 3.43

Harrison 5.61 3.29

 

Feldman Baker Viilenueva Jackson Upside? Maybe... We will see. You could be right... You maybe right on three or two or one... Maybe none..

 

I think the Cubs have a plan and everything looks sensible to me so far. I'm not knocking the Cubs... Time will tell.

 

Crash was wrong; that was '80's baseball, this is a new century. The consistant contenders find 4 starters who can manage a K/9 +7.0, just ask the Tigers, Giants, Rays, Rangers, Yankees, Phillies, Braves, White Sox and Nationals.

 

It's simple, if the batter doesn't make contact, you take errors, Texas Leaguers, seeing eye singles, sacrafice hits, Steve Bartman, Milton Bradley throwing the ball into the stands with 2 outs, Jose Canseco trying to catch a popup with his head and seagulls taking a crap on the ball out of the equation and prevent a lot of unneccessary runs.

 

This thread's depressing, can we rename it "State of the Starting Corpse"?

[Riverbrian]

Crash was wrong; that was '80's baseball, this is a new century. The consistant contenders find 4 starters who can manage a K/9 +7.0, just ask the Tigers, Giants, Rays, Rangers, Yankees, Phillies, Braves, White Sox and Nationals.

 

It's simple, if the batter doesn't make contact, you take errors, Texas Leaguers, seeing eye singles, sacrafice hits, Steve Bartman, Milton Bradley throwing the ball into the stands with 2 outs, Jose Canseco trying to catch a popup with his head and seagulls taking a crap on the ball out of the equation and prevent a lot of unneccessary runs.

 

This thread's depressing, can we rename it "State of the Starting Corpse"?

 

In the end... an out is an out... But I love this post... The use of Bartman... Conseco and Seagulls was well done.

[Guest USAFChief]

In the end... an out is an out...

 

Actually, an out is NOT an out. That's kind of the point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

In the end... an out is an out... But I love this post... The use of Bartman... Conseco and Seagulls was well done.

 

1. You can still score a run or advance runners on an out.

 

2. Any time the ball goes into play, there is a significant chance that the defense will bungle the play, allow an additional baserunner, and/or allow additional runs to score.

 

If you strike a guy out, there's about a .01% chance that something good for happen for the batting team while the negative is nearly guaranteed (barring the freak occasion where a guy makes it to first after a strikeout).

[Riverbrian]

1. You can still score a run or advance runners on an out.

 

2. Any time the ball goes into play, there is a significant chance that the defense will bungle the play, allow an additional baserunner, and/or allow additional runs to score.

 

If you strike a guy out, there's about a .01% chance that something good for happen for the batting team while the negative is nearly guaranteed (barring the freak occasion where a guy makes it to first after a strikeout).

 

LOL... It's stuff like this that makes Twins Daily such a special place. Good Solid Information...

 

If I understand this correctly... So what you are saying is... There is a benefit to putting the ball in play. Unless it's Ben Revere... With Ben... his ability to put the ball in play doesn't count... I think I understand now. (that was a joke!!!)

 

Another question... When the Batter Steps into that chalk outline thing... Does he have to wait until the pitch is thrown or can he just run toward the base?

[Shane Wahl]

So RB, is an out an out, or not?

[TheLeviathan]

Another question... When the Batter Steps into that chalk outline thing... Does he have to wait until the pitch is thrown or can he just run toward the base?

 

You seem to have missed the part where that obvious information was necessary because you said something incredibly ignorant.

[Riverbrian]

So RB, is an out an out, or not?

 

 

OMG... I don't know anymore.

[Riverbrian]

You seem to have missed the part where that obvious information was necessary because you said something incredibly ignorant.

 

**** OFF... Scratch that... Merry X-mas...

[70charger]

So RB, is an out an out, or not?

 

It is, except when it's not. Then it isn't. But it might have been.

[Boom Boom]

An out is an out.

 

To a pitcher, some outs are better than others.

[Buck Nasty]

1. You can still score a run or advance runners on an out.

 

2. Any time the ball goes into play, there is a significant chance that the defense will bungle the play, allow an additional baserunner, and/or allow additional runs to score.

 

If you strike a guy out, there's about a .01% chance that something good for happen for the batting team while the negative is nearly guaranteed (barring the freak occasion where a guy makes it to first after a strikeout).

 

True. But you can record an out with one pitch and a strike out takes a minimum of 3 (usually many more). Also you can record 2 outs when a ball is put in play (i.e. grounder to short) far more often than a strike out/throw out. In a nutshell, it's ok to have a pitcher go 8 innings with 3 or 4 stikeouts vs. say a Liriano racking up K's but throwing 100 pitches in 4 innings.

[diehardtwinsfan]

True. But you can record an out with one pitch and a strike out takes a minimum of 3 (usually many more). Also you can record 2 outs when a ball is put in play (i.e. grounder to short) far more often than a strike out/throw out. In a nutshell, it's ok to have a pitcher go 8 innings with 3 or 4 stikeouts vs. say a Liriano racking up K's but throwing 100 pitches in 4 innings.

 

The problem with this is that usually you won't make it 8 innings with only 3 or 4 Ks. That many balls in play extends innings which means more pitches thrown. There's a healthy balance here, but don't underestimate the value of strike outs... especially when the defense behind the pitcher isn't very good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

True. But you can record an out with one pitch and a strike out takes a minimum of 3 (usually many more). Also you can record 2 outs when a ball is put in play (i.e. grounder to short) far more often than a strike out/throw out. In a nutshell, it's ok to have a pitcher go 8 innings with 3 or 4 stikeouts vs. say a Liriano racking up K's but throwing 100 pitches in 4 innings.

 

True, except that guys who K 3-4 batters rarely go 8+ innings. Strikeouts don't have to consume a ton of pitches and Liriano's control problems aren't indicative of a typical strikeout pitcher.

 

Every time the ball is put in play, there is approximately a 30% chance that the batter will reach base safely. Allowing a full 1/3rd of hitters to reach base safely when contact is made outweighs any additional pitches a strikeout pitcher may have to throw (and the chances of runners scoring are drastically higher with men on base regularly). There's a reason why pitchers who strike out guys tend to have better ERAs than pitchers who do not strike out guys (Liriano being a quite notable exception). Not only do they miss bats with their pitches but when contact is made, it's generally weaker (because if you often miss bats, chances are that when a batter finally puts the bat on the ball, it won't be solidly).

[nicksaviking]

True, except that guys who K 3-4 batters rarely go 8+ innings. Strikeouts don't have to consume a ton of pitches and Liriano's control problems aren't indicative of a typical strikeout pitcher.

 

Every time the ball is put in play, there is approximately a 30% chance that the batter will reach base safely. Allowing a full 1/3rd of hitters to reach base safely when contact is made outweighs any additional pitches a strikeout pitcher may have to throw (and the chances of runners scoring are drastically higher with men on base regularly). There's a reason why pitchers who strike out guys tend to have better ERAs than pitchers who do not strike out guys (Liriano being a quite notable exception). Not only do they miss bats with their pitches but when contact is made, it's generally weaker (because if you often miss bats, chances are that when a batter finally puts the bat on the ball, it won't be solidly).

 

The ERA is often lower for strikeout pitchers, but that's just the bonus. The true benefit is the fewer UNEARNED runs they give up due to the fewer chances they give the defense to screw up. If anything we should find a higher ERA for a strikeout pitcher acceptable seeing as they are preventing unearned runs. Giving up runs loses games earned or not.

[old nurse]

1. You can still score a run or advance runners on an out.

 

2. Any time the ball goes into play, there is a significant chance that the defense will bungle the play, allow an additional baserunner, and/or allow additional runs to score.

 

If you strike a guy out, there's about a .01% chance that something good for happen for the batting team while the negative is nearly guaranteed (barring the freak occasion where a guy makes it to first after a strikeout).

 

from Dr. Mike Marshal retired pitcher

 

 

" I determined that the Correlation Coefficient between Earned Run Average (ERA) and Strikeouts per Game (Ks/9) is -0.22. The negative number only means that we listed earned run average (ERA) from low to high and strikeouts (Ks/9) from high to low. That the correlation between earned run average (ERA) and strikeouts per game (Ks/) is -0.22 means that strikeouts do not significantly measure the quality of baseball pitchers."

 

He did find that low walk ratios do not correlate to low ERA but a high walk ratio does correlate to higher ERA.

 

The conclusion he came up with was

" In conclusion, I believe that these statistics indicate that, if it means that baseball pitchers challenge themselves to throw tougher pitches in tough situations, such that they give up fewer hits and extra base hits, it is better for baseball pitchers to walk a few more batters."

[nicksaviking]

from Dr. Mike Marshal retired pitcher

 

 

" I determined that the Correlation Coefficient between Earned Run Average (ERA) and Strikeouts per Game (Ks/9) is -0.22. The negative number only means that we listed earned run average (ERA) from low to high and strikeouts (Ks/9) from high to low. That the correlation between earned run average (ERA) and strikeouts per game (Ks/) is -0.22 means that strikeouts do not significantly measure the quality of baseball pitchers."

 

He did find that low walk ratios do not correlate to low ERA but a high walk ratio does correlate to higher ERA.

 

The conclusion he came up with was

" In conclusion, I believe that these statistics indicate that, if it means that baseball pitchers challenge themselves to throw tougher pitches in tough situations, such that they give up fewer hits and extra base hits, it is better for baseball pitchers to walk a few more batters."

 

 

 

Of course from that quote, it sounds like he measures the quality of a pitcher solely on ERA. I'd be more interested in the correlation between K/9 and a teams winning percentage.

[nicksaviking]

Just by going off last years numbers on fangraphs, I found only one team in the top ten in team K/9 had a losing record and only three in the bottom ten had winning records. Meanwhile five of the top ten teams in groundball percentage had losing records and five of the bottom ten had winning percentages. At the very least, lasts years numbers indicate the Twins approach of seeking groundball pitchers is pointless.

[Riverbrian]

I'm not knocking strikeouts. K's do not have to be defended from the likes of me.

 

I love K's especially when there is a runner on third and one out.

 

I know that there is a correlation between Increased K's and lower ERA's... I wouldn't have to look it up to know it... It would stand to reason... because you can just lop the whiffs off the percentages of what happens when contact is made. That isnt hard to grasp. Its an advantage that the low K guys have to overcome.

 

However... Its a statistical correlation with multiple outliers. I guess I should have just said that to make my point... But it was more fun to quote Crash Davis.

 

There are different types of outs. Some better than others... But yeah... An out is an out... Get 3 of them and you get to sit down.