Article: State of the Starting Corps

[70charger]

Have we really reached a point where Terry Ryan is being blasted for failing to acquire John freaking Lannan? Really?

 

Actually, we've reached the point where debates about epistemological skepticism are being applied to the free agent market. I can't tell if that's better or worse.

 

I hate the offseason. I'm going back to the thread about sexy GMs.

[Top Gun]

Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago reports that the Cubs have signed free agent right-hander Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52 million contract.

 

 

 

Source: Patrick Mooney on Twitter

[LaBombo]

Marcum... Jackson... Villanueva and McCarthy... Are clearly in the average group. I don't think any of them are zero hangers.

 

Unless you're placing Correia and Pelfrey in that latter group of 'about to be unemployed', then you're saying they're really no different from Marcum and Jackson, right? So if you can't get Felix Hernandez you might as well not sweat the difference between Marcum and Correia? If you mean that neither will make the Twins contenders in 2013, that's fine.

 

But if you mean there's no difference ever between Marcum and a guy who gives up an extra run every nine innings, then I disagree. In fact I think it's safe to say that you're leaving out an entire group of pitchers, those who are not aces but are consistently above average. Having two of those guys in addition to an ace and two Correias instead of an ace and four Correias sounds to me like the difference between a potential contender and an also-ran.

[Top Gun]

What kid of gun does the Cubs have? We should get one of them!

[Willihammer]

What waiver wire prospects are going to make a huge difference?

 

Does Mickey Storey tickle your fancy? The 73-win Blue Jays plucked him off the waiver wire just yesterday. Alex Anthopoulos has been stockpiling these AAAA guys all offseason for almost nothing.

[cmathewson]

At no point in the article did I compare the current group to last year's Opening Day rotation. What I said was that if I'm Terry Ryan, I have a hard time feeling confident that this unit will perform significantly better overall than last year's. I'm not saying that the present outlook is worse, I just don't know that it's much better.

 

Of the five pitchers I listed as the top candidates, two are coming back from TJ surgery and four have never thrown a pitch in the American League. Outside of Pelfrey, there is a total of ONE MLB season with 175+ IP in the entire collection (Correia in 2009).

 

That's a lot of uncertainty and if they moved forward counting on the five guys I mentioned, it's hard to imagine they wouldn't have to once again dip into Triple-A repeatedly.

 

Also, I'm not assuming that Ryan is done by any means. This is a snapshot of the current situation, nothing more. As I said, I believe it would help a lot to add an established quality pitcher that can push others down the depth chart, and there are still some guys like that out there. The fact of the matter is that we haven't seen the Twins tied to such players, and instead we see them popping up next to names like Freddy Garcia.

 

The only name left that would be an upgrade over Deduno/Gibson/Hendrix is Lohse. Ryan doesn't like to bring guys back who leave on their own accord. I would have loved another starter, but I doubt they will get one before Spring Training. The best hope is that one of the three I just mentioned steps up in camp and asserts himself as a top-of-the-rotation starter. My money is on Deduno, who seemed to turn a corner last year and has been lights out in the Dominican league. Perhaps they can start with Gibson in the pen and he can be the first guy to fill in when one of the other four falters.

[Riverbrian]

Unless you're placing Correia and Pelfrey in that latter group of 'about to be unemployed', then you're saying they're really no different from Marcum and Jackson, right? So if you can't get Felix Hernandez you might as well not sweat the difference between Marcum and Correia? If you mean that neither will make the Twins contenders in 2013, that's fine.

 

But if you mean there's no difference ever between Marcum and a guy who gives up an extra run every nine innings, then I disagree. In fact I think it's safe to say that you're leaving out an entire group of pitchers, those who are not aces but are consistently above average. Having two of those guys in addition to an ace and two Correias instead of an ace and four Correias sounds to me like the difference between a potential contender and an also-ran.

 

I think you and I are going to end up disagreeing a little but not by a large margin. It's your own personal call if you want to make more piles of pitchers.

 

Myself... I believe it's all about each individual game and if you look at it from each individual game. Only the zero hanger... (and there is only a few of these guys) are going to let your team take the day off on occasion. The average pitcher has to go out and pitch in the context of that game. In the end the numbers end up being what the numbers are and they change from year to year.

 

Comparing Marcum to Correia... First off... The only thing I didn't like about the Correia signing was the 2nd year. 5 Million for an option(pitcher) seems to be the going rate for Free Agents. If the Option (Correia) fails which is possible. He still gets another year... The whole idea of quantity is being able to move away from guys that don't get the job done. That makes the 2nd year confusing to me.

 

Maybe it was a case of it taking a 2nd year to land him. Maybe TR has a lot of lines in the water with no bites so he said OK to the 2nd year to actually pull in a fish instead of coming home empty. I don't know.

 

But Back to comparing Marcum to Correia... Yes... Statistically Marcum has been the better pitcher of the two. That's why I like Marcum for at least 3 years... He's been very consistent... But Game by Game... It's still a match up against the guy on the mound for the other team and then doing it again in the next start.

 

Neither Pitcher has the ability to shut down the other team consistently with elite stuff and neither pitcher is showing any evidence of being someone who isn't competing somewhat decently.

 

Another problem when it comes to chasing down those stats is this... It's a moving Target... You offer a contract to a guy with a 3.39 ERA and he shows up and throws a 4.20. Then you cut that guy loose and sign a guy with a 3.70 because he is looking better than the guy with a 4.20... And the 4.20 guy signs elsewhere and puts up a 3.50 the next year and the 3.70 guys is at 4.00. It's a lotta tail chasing.

 

Jackson gets 13 Million and Correia Gets 5. I don't know what Marcum is going to get but you are still spending money on shades of mediocrity... averageness.

 

We need options because we don't know what we are going to get from anyone in 2013... Including Diamond. Diamond might be a 4.88 and Deduno might be a 3.00. S

 

In a nutshell... Game by Game... All we should be asking for is pitchers who will compete against the other guy on the mound in the context of each game.

[jokin]

Does Mickey Storey tickle your fancy? The 73-win Blue Jays plucked him off the waiver wire just yesterday. Alex Anthopoulos has been stockpiling these AAAA guys all offseason for almost nothing.

 

And right under TR's advantageously-positioned nose. Nothing to see here...move along...asleep at the wheel...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[jokin]

The lack of Lannan being thrown into the Span trade was evidence that Ryan did not think he was worth the arbitration price. That proved to be accurate with his low figure he signed for.

 

Waiver wire pickups are different than free agents. What waiver wire prospects are going to make a huge difference? Essentially they have been fringe AAAA players. There are plenty of people complaining of the last bunch he signed.

 

Storey is one recent prospect that should have been a no-brainer. More guys than just prospects pop up on the waiver wire. Vargas, for example.

 

FWIW, Lannan has an incentive-based deal that puts him in the same price range as his projected arb number.

[cmathewson]

Not one poster on this very long comment thread has said anything about the availability of pitching this offseason. Fact is, prices are very high and quality is very low. There are a handful of decent guys who would cost way more then they're worth. All others are back-of-the-rotation types. They could choose different guys in that class (not a fan of Corriea myself), but I don't have a problem with passing on the likes of Anibel Sanchez at 4/80.

[ThePuck]

Do you see the prices getting any lower in the future?

[jokin]

 

Like you I'm hoping they concentrate on the future, but they could've been better this year while getting a head start on the future instead of wasting time and money with guys like Correia.

 

This.

 

Why does TR remind me of the Argentine Admiral doing that cheap paint job on the ARA General Belgrano in 1982, just before the start of the Falkland Island war? (Note to TR, the drab paint job you're putting on the 2013 roster isn't doing anything to stop the torpedo attack from the Tigers and White Sox that sinks yet another Twins season )

[jokin]

So you should ignore the tomorrows? OK Gibson or Pelfrey could be as good as Baker. They individually might pitch as much this year as Baker does. Worley as good as Feldman. DeVries, Deduno or Duensing as good as Vilanueva

 

I certainly didn't ignore the tomorrows. The original topic was the state of the starting staff for 2013. Baker, Gibson, Pelfrey, three sets of damaged goods, one with a demonstrably superior track record, Baker. Worley was acquired via a trade, so there was a significant roster cost involved. Villanueva vs.? Again, a MLB track record vs 3 crapshoot guys.

 

I repeat, now with the additional signing of Jackson (who I pointed out one year ago could have been signed for less than what the Cubs just gave him) the Cubs have assembled a FA starting rotation for today and tomorrow. The Twins? Hoping that May and Meyer don't blow out their arms before their 2015 debuts, hopefully alongside an improved and healthy Gibson, Worley and ???

[Nick Nelson]

Not one poster on this very long comment thread has said anything about the availability of pitching this offseason. Fact is, prices are very high and quality is very low. There are a handful of decent guys who would cost way more then they're worth. All others are back-of-the-rotation types. They could choose different guys in that class (not a fan of Corriea myself), but I don't have a problem with passing on the likes of Anibel Sanchez at 4/80.

 

That's the price of pitching in today's market, and it's not likely to get any better. If the Twins want to improve their staff before some of these prospects hopefully come up and make an impact, then overpaying is really their only choice. They have the money so I don't really see the downside. You failed to mention that these back-of-the-rotation types are also getting way more than they're worth.

[ThePuck]

The Twins? Hoping that May and Meyer don't blow out their arms before their 2015 debuts, hopefully alongside an improved and healthy Gibson, Worley and ???

 

Diamond? Berrios?

[70charger]

This.

 

Why does TR remind me of the Argentine Admiral doing that cheap paint job on the ARA General Belgrano in 1982, just before the start of the Falkland Island war? (Note to TR, the drab paint job you're putting on the 2013 roster isn't doing anything to stop the torpedo attack from the Tigers and White Sox that sinks yet another Twins season )

 

I just got caught in a wikipedia tornado.

[jokin]

Have we really reached a point where Terry Ryan is being blasted for failing to acquire John freaking Lannan? Really?

 

Lannan is 4 years younger than Correia and is flat out better than Correia (Correia had one relatively decent season- 4 YEARS AGO) and would have cost less besides. This isn't that hard.

[jokin]

I just got caught in a wikipedia tornado.

 

Cmon 70s. I know you're old enough to remember that paint job.

[jokin]

Diamond? Berrios?

 

Berrios probably not til 2016. Based on Diamond's 2nd half drop-off in performance, I still have doubts about his sustainability to remain as effective for 3 more years. (Hope I'm wrong)

[70charger]

Cmon 70s. I know you're old enough to remember that paint job.

 

My car is older than I am.

[ThePuck]

Berrios probably not til 2016. Based on Diamond's 2nd half drop-off in performance, I still have doubts about his sustainability to remain as effective for 3 more years. (Hope I'm wrong)

 

 

Doesn't mean Diamond won't be that 5th guy...he's not even arbitration eligible till 2015. He's gonna be around awhile

[Riverbrian]

I certainly didn't ignore the tomorrows. The original topic was the state of the starting staff for 2013. Baker, Gibson, Pelfrey, three sets of damaged goods, one with a demonstrably superior track record, Baker. Worley was acquired via a trade, so there was a significant roster cost involved. Villanueva vs.? Again, a MLB track record vs 3 crapshoot guys.

 

I repeat, now with the additional signing of Jackson (who I pointed out one year ago could have been signed for less than what the Cubs just gave him) the Cubs have assembled a FA starting rotation for today and tomorrow. The Twins? Hoping that May and Meyer don't blow out their arms before their 2015 debuts, hopefully alongside an improved and healthy Gibson, Worley and ???

 

Jokin... Not to be a pain... But... Baker and Feldman were signed to one year deals... Villanueva for two... Jackson is only pitcher signed for 2015. TR went out got Worley... May and Meyer... I think it's no contest that the Twins have done more for the future.

 

And the point you make about hoping that Meyer and May don't blow their arms out. That isn't an exclusive hope for the Twins only... The Cubs are also hoping that Jackson and Vizcaino don't blow their arms out as well.

 

Dont get me wrong... I wanted Jackson as well... I'm now left to hope for Marcum... But don't you think you are over playing the Cubs a little.

[jokin]

Doesn't mean Diamond won't be that 5th guy...he's not even arbitration eligible till 2015. He's gonna be around awhile

 

That's why I left that 5th spot open. I hope that Diamond is that 5th starter and pitching as effectively as he did in his first dozen starts in 2012, and that his numbers this year are 5th best of all the SPs in 2015. But, there's still a strong chance for statistical regression and an outside chance that this season was only a mirage (again, hope I'm way wrong).

[jokin]

Jokin... Not to be a pain... But... Baker and Feldman were signed to one year deals... Villanueva for two... Jackson is only pitcher signed for 2015. TR went out got Worley... May and Meyer... I think it's no contest that the Twins have done more for the future.

 

And the point you make about hoping that Meyer and May don't blow their arms out. That isn't an exclusive hope for the Twins only... The Cubs are also hoping that Jackson and Vizcaino don't blow their arms out as well.

 

Dont get me wrong... I wanted Jackson as well... I'm now left to hope for Marcum... But don't you think you are over playing the Cubs a little.

 

Perhaps I am. But if any club had dug themselves a bigger hole than the Twins going into 2013, it was definitely the Cubs.

 

I agree, and applauded the fact, that TR finally addressed the situation, showed the willingness to take the short-term slings and arrows involved with blowing up some of the core and put the team on the logical and correct path to set sights on 2015.

 

But, I was addressing this topic based on the current state of the starting staff vis a vis a club in a similar predicament and I fail to see the benefit of the time spent and money wasted on things that do little to nothing (save Worley) to address the "fact" that we've now accepted and set our sights on 2015.

 

For the record, given the position that the Cubs and Twins are in, I endorse one-year deals on both quality and quantity. Signing a Haren-like SP to a one-year deal (very flip-worthy indeed) and Jackson to a multi-year as your 2 big signings would have been perfect, along with Pelfrey on another one year- and then the trade for Worley. That's the supposed $30M number- less 5 million- that was available for FA signings- minus Span's salary (13 + 13 +4 - 5.5 + .5 = 25M), so Ryan could actually still have come in well under $100M on the payroll and the rotation would have had a huge current upgrade with the future made more intact in the process.

[Riverbrian]

Perhaps I am. But if any club had dug themselves a bigger hole than the Twins going into 2013, it was definitely the Cubs.

 

I agree, and applauded the fact, that TR finally addressed the situation, showed the willingness to take the short-term slings and arrows involved with blowing up some of the core and put the team on the logical and correct path to set sights on 2015.

 

But, I was addressing this topic based on the current state of the starting staff vis a vis a club in a similar predicament and I fail to see the benefit of the time spent and money wasted on things that do little to nothing (save Worley) to address the "fact" that we've now accepted and set our sights on 2015.

 

For the record, given the position that the Cubs and Twins are in, I endorse one-year deals on both quality and quantity. Signing a Haren-like SP to a one-year deal (very flip-worthy indeed) and Jackson to a multi-year as your 2 big signings would have been perfect, along with Pelfrey on another one year- and then the trade for Worley. That's the supposed $30M number- less 5 million- that was available for FA signings- minus Span's salary (13 + 13 +4 - 5.5 + .5 = 25M), so Ryan could actually still have come in well under $100M on the payroll and the rotation would have had a huge current upgrade with the future made more intact in the process.

 

I won't argue your last paragraph... I'll only say that I never expected the Twins to spend over ten million each on two pitchers. Not because they didn't have the money or were too cheap to do so... But because I can't think of too many teams that have in one off season.

 

I was hoping for just one ten million plus guy... One traded for cheap guy with talent... Maybe get lucky with a rule 5... And a bunch of Pelfrey types for competition.

 

I didn't get the rule 5 guy but I got the trade guy... We will sign at least one more FA... I'm hoping its Marcum. Roll the dice on a Harden or Webb to replace the rule 5 I didn't get and I'm good.

[johnnydakota]

Jokin... Not to be a pain... But... Baker and Feldman were signed to one year deals... Villanueva for two... Jackson is only pitcher signed for 2015. TR went out got Worley... May and Meyer... I think it's no contest that the Twins have done more for the future.

 

And the point you make about hoping that Meyer and May don't blow their arms out. That isn't an exclusive hope for the Twins only... The Cubs are also hoping that Jackson and Vizcaino don't blow their arms out as well.

 

Dont get me wrong... I wanted Jackson as well... I'm now left to hope for Marcum... But don't you think you are over playing the Cubs a little.

Dont get me wrong , i hope the 3 pitchers Terry traded for all work out ,but Whorely Was #5 in Philly and has or had arm problems,and Mays had a great year in A ball but last year in AA his ERA was not good , hope this isnt a trend, move up a level and add 1.50 to his era... as for Meyers he is in A ball, lots can happen before he arrives, if EVER....

 

As for his off season signings, he wasted money , obtained nothing of value, not 1 of these players signed would another team trade for....so they are not an asset , He could have just as well flushed the money down the toilet...

 

That being said i hope Corriea and Pelfrey finish 1 and 2 in the cy young awards next year ...but the chances are?

[Riverbrian]

Dont get me wrong , i hope the 3 pitchers Terry traded for all work out ,but Whorely Was #5 in Philly and has or had arm problems,and Mays had a great year in A ball but last year in AA his ERA was not good , hope this isnt a trend, move up a level and add 1.50 to his era... as for Meyers he is in A ball, lots can happen before he arrives, if EVER....

 

As for his off season signings, he wasted money , obtained nothing of value, not 1 of these players signed would another team trade for....so they are not an asset , He could have just as well flushed the money down the toilet...

 

That being said i hope Corriea and Pelfrey finish 1 and 2 in the cy young awards next year ...but the chances are?

 

Arm problems with pitchers are like cavities on humans. A few manage to avoid them but not many.

 

No guarantees on Mays or Meyer... But the Twins had very little between Gibson and Berrios... Now they do... It was needed.

 

As for the wasted money... It happens all the time... Every team has wasted a **** load of money along the way... It's the cost of doing business but its best to wait until they pitch before you say it is wasted.

[jokin]

I won't argue your last paragraph... I'll only say that I never expected the Twins to spend over ten million each on two pitchers. Not because they didn't have the money or were too cheap to do so... But because I can't think of too many teams that have in one off season.

 

 

The cost of playing has gone up, so it is ever more likely to happen. And, the risk is mitigated significantly if one of the two $10M+ guys is on a one-year deal. Wouldn't a move like that, as unlikely as it is for the Twins, be a big fan- and team-building statement move that this team is heading in a new direction?

 

The Cubs have now spent $29.5M on 4 starters (2 multi-year contracts) and $34.1M on pitchers when you count RP Fujikama (multi-year deal)

.

 

The Twins have spent $9M on 2 starters and shed themselves of two low-cost top defensive OFers to make way for 2015.

 

Of all the FA SPs, given the injury complications, I think I would take any of the Cubs 4 pitchers over the Twins 2 signees.

[Riverbrian]

The cost of playing has gone up, so it is ever more likely to happen. And, the risk is mitigated significantly if one of the two $10M+ guys is on a one-year deal. Wouldn't a move like that, as unlikely as it is for the Twins, be a big fan- and team-building statement move that this team is heading in a new direction?

 

The Cubs have now spent $29.5M on 4 starters (2 multi-year contracts) and $34.1M on pitchers when you count RP Fujikama (multi-year deal)

.

 

The Twins have spent $9M on 2 starters and shed themselves of two low-cost top defensive OFers to make way for 2015.

 

Of all the FA SPs, given the injury complications, I think I would take any of the Cubs 4 pitchers over the Twins 2 signees.

 

With the Jackson signing... I'd have to put the Cubs off season over ours so far but... I've never been a this player over that player type. .

[edavis0308]

At least the Cubs filled their rotation with some guys that can have some upside and get some strikeouts.