Article: State of the Starting Corps

[Jim Crikket]

posed this question yesterday to David Schoenfield of ESPN on yesterday's chat: Are the Twins finished dealing after trading Span,Revere and signing Correia & Pelfrey? Will they finish dead last again in the AL? Schoenfield's response: Shaping up to be quite a race between the Indians and Twins. Correria , Pelfrey Worley.....doesn't inspire much confidence

 

I caught the Joe Posnanski live chat yesterday, too. He was asked by one desperate Twins fan to say at least one positive thing he liked about the Twins. His answer is that he likes the interlocking TC on their caps, beyond that there's nothing. I reluctantly have to agree. Barring an unexpected addition to the top of the Twins rotation, rather than more possible #5s, I can't see any reason to spend money to watch the 2013 Twins.

[Winston Smith]

How dare anyone be negative after 195 loses the last 2 years. I'm appalled!

 

Merry Christmas!!

[johnnydakota]

Are you kidding? Who thought our rotation was anything but junk going into the 2012 season? We had the 26th ranked rotation in the majors in 2011 and added Marquis. It was a disaster way before April

 

I remember several who questioned Jason Marquis signing , pointing out his career era was as bad as the 2011 starters were and he was not an upgrade , but a bottom feeding signing...

I also must point out , i said once Terry Ryan was done adding to the 2013 team , we may wish we had Marquis back...

[MrHockey]

Ryan is a cheapskate and a liar that is why Pohlad hire him. He can't give his money away the players know him. He is paid to fool the fans into thinking he can get something for nothing. When the fans are gone he will be gone too, but it will be to little to late for Pohlad to pony up.

It is just sad to have to watch the Twins lose for another 2 years with no chance to win. Empty promises and lies, Just plain greed!

 

Terry Ryan has been at this what 12 months since Bill Smith crashed and burned? Rebuilding is hard to do especially when your general manager failed to select pitchers with the high draft picks in successive years. Most folks in the know opine that the Twins are in rebuilding mode and the pitchers that have been signed are fillers until 2015 when it is hoped that the group which includes Sano, Buxton, Meyer and others emerge. Let's not forget how ugly the 90's were. It seems that only the Dodgers and Yankees can buy their way into contention.

[Mike Sixel]

Dan S, who does zips, just joked that whenever he tries to project the twins pitching, he gets a blue screen of death....

[LoganJones]

With all the guys who are on the recovery trail this year, why not investigate a 6-man rotation, at least for the first half? It works out to 27 starts for each slot. And, not surprisingly if each guy pitches 6 innings per start, 162 Innings from each starter. You could let guys without health concerns like Diamond and Correia go an extra inning when they're pitching well, and they'll easily get right up to near 200 innings.

[70charger]

With all the guys who are on the recovery trail this year, why not investigate a 6-man rotation, at least for the first half? It works out to 27 starts for each slot. And, not surprisingly if each guy pitches 6 innings per start, 162 Innings from each starter. You could let guys without health concerns like Diamond and Correia go an extra inning when they're pitching well, and they'll easily get right up to near 200 innings.

 

If we're planning on pitching Gibson from day 1 and limiting his innings, it might not be a bad idea. It might also have the added benefit of ensuring that someone with upside like Hendriks isn't languishing in the minors so that somebody equally crappy buy on a major league contract like Correia can get innings. Just spitballing. (Pun intended.)

[lowpup]

Bottom line is that we fans were promised contending teams. Two years ago a team not used to having money to spend gave it a try and failed miserably. So during the winter of of 11-12 after the worst season in recent history the twins decreased payroll for the 2012 season by over 18 million dollars going from 112 to 84 million. To no one's surprise, the team failed again this past year. Here we are one year later being fed the same lines as last year and it appears the twins are again going to unload enter the season with a lower payroll. Shoudl it come to a surpris to any of us that they are again terrible this next August?

 

I get that you can't spend all your money three or four guys on your team, but you still have to put a product on the field that me, you, and all the other fans out there want to spend hard earned money on. This includes spending between 10 and 20 million a year on a pitcher we can ever pretend is an ace after having the worst staff in the league for two years.

 

The realization is that this is a business, and unless somethign has an impact on the bottom line the Pohlad's will not respond.....so doesn't that really make this all our fault in the end?

[Monkeypaws]

Ryan is a cheapskate and a liar that is why Pohlad hire him. He can't give his money away the players know him. He is paid to fool the fans into thinking he can get something for nothing. When the fans are gone he will be gone too, but it will be to little to late for Pohlad to pony up.

It is just sad to have to watch the Twins lose for another 2 years with no chance to win. Empty promises and lies, Just plain greed!

 

Thing is, do you know what offers Ryan put out there that weren't accepted? Maybe he made legit offers to guys like Haren and McCarthy, but they simply chose to go elsewhere.

 

Last place team has trouble attracting top free agents - no surprise there.

 

Pretty simple to just blame Ryan.

[strumdatjag]

I think the Twins need both quantity and quality of pitching. Terry Ryan has added more bodies - So we're better in the "quantity department". Now, when lack of production or injuries happen, there will be more options to fill in the rotation (and replace those options that don't produce). The Twins still need quality. They need the proverbial STOPPER that they've had in the past with Santana, Radke, Morris, Viola . . . I's really like two quality top of the rotation guys, but the Twins should start by developing, signing or trading for one. Next year, there probably won't be one - not even at the level of Carl Pavano's first year as a Twin.

[ThePuck]

Thing is, do you know what offers Ryan put out there that weren't accepted? Maybe he made legit offers to guys like Haren and McCarthy, but they simply chose to go elsewhere.

 

Last place team has trouble attracting top free agents - no surprise there.

 

Pretty simple to just blame Ryan.

 

So, after the 2010 season of 94 wins, we didn't sign any pitchers to improve our pitching staff even though we were a first place team, had money...so we should be an ideal spot for FA pitcher. Why no signing then? What's the excuse then? I'm guessing, because the team did well they didn't feel the need to upgrade the rotation? Cause first place teams almost always rest on their laurels on pitching after fluke seasons by some pitchers?

 

What about after 2009? First place team, 26th ranked rotation. Ideal spot for FA pitching, right? First place team...Who'd we sign in the offseason after 2009?

 

What about getting even one top notch pitcher in FA after 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006? first place teams, all ideal spots for FA pitchers. I'm guessing that was because our staff was good enough? Or was it because we didn't have money then?

[70charger]

So, after the 2010 season of 94 wins, we didn't sign any pitchers to improve our pitching staff even though we were a first place team, had money...so we should be an ideal spot for FA pitcher. Why no signing then? What's the excuse then? I'm guessing, because the team did well they didn't feel the need to upgrade the rotation? Cause first place teams almost always rest on their laurels on pitching after fluke seasons by some pitchers?

 

What about after 2009? First place team, 26th ranked rotation. Ideal spot for FA pitching, right? First place team...Who'd we sign in the offseason after 2009?

 

What about getting even one top notch pitcher in FA after 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006? first place teams, all ideal spots for FA pitchers. I'm guessing that was because our staff was good enough? Or was it because we didn't have money then?

 

a) Much of that was Bill Smith

For the rest of it, we were dealing with Metrodome dollars

 

c) (most important) It's still all speculation with absolutely no proof.

[LoganJones]

So, after the 2010 season of 94 wins, we didn't sign any pitchers to improve our pitching staff even though we were a first place team, had money...so we should be an ideal spot for FA pitcher. Why no signing then? What's the excuse then?

 

And who should they have signed? Cliff Lee? (5 Years 120M, took less to return to Philly) Ted Lilly? (3 Years 33M at age 35.) The Twins signed the 4th largest contract for pitching to Pavano (2/16.5 also at age 35). They weren't exactly cheap, there just wasn't anyone gettable & worthwhile to get.

 

Here's the complete List.

2011 Major League Baseball Free Agents - Starting Pitchers On The MLB Free Agent Market

 

Chris Capuano would have made sense, in hindsight, but that's not fair.

[snepp]

Dan S, who does zips, just joked that whenever he tries to project the twins pitching, he gets a blue screen of death....

 

Projecting the Twins pitching starts with a bottle of Jack.

[Mike Sixel]

Terry Ryan defenders, who did he sign to play OF or DH in his last term, when they had some of the worst DHs in history, and had a good team? What gives you any belief that he would sign a big time player to a big time contract? What evidence do you have?

[JP3700]

As I stated in another thread, I don't mind the approach, but I do question the players. I was one of the many that said.. if I were the GM.. I'd go after a Sanchez, Marcum or Jackson. It's now clear that it's not going to happen nor was it ever going to, which is fine. I understand that we are rebuilding and short-term, low risk contracts is the safe path to take.

 

I loved the trades, but we invested $14+ million into Correia and Pelfrey. An "innings eater" and a guy coming off injury with upside. Why didn't we invest $17 million into Haren and Lannan.. a better guy coming off injury and a better "innings eater". Both were available in trades.. one for most likely a D prospect with upside and the other as a cherry on top to the Span trade.

 

Haren

Diamond

Worley

Lannan

Hendriks

 

Gibson, Deduno, DeVries

 

Suddenly the state of the starting corps looks a lot better while investing about the same amount of money. Obviously I'm using hindsight, but I don't think I'm being unreasonable.

[Nick Nelson]

Terry Ryan defenders, who did he sign to play OF or DH in his last term, when they had some of the worst DHs in history, and had a good team? What gives you any belief that he would sign a big time player to a big time contract? What evidence do you have?

 

I imagine no one would deny that Ryan has been unsuccessful on the free agent market. He doesn't spend competitive dollars there, never has. Bargain bin players tend to have a low rate of success. Here's the thing: we don't know if it's because of his mindset or a mindset that is imposed upon him by ownership. The Pohlads are shrewd business folks and big-name free agents are generally bad (though you could argue necessary) investments.

 

I have a hard time believing that Ryan would not like to add a top-tier pitcher if he had free reign to do so. Simply makes no sense. He wants to field a good team and he obviously doesn't think Kevin Correia is better than Anibal Sanchez.

 

Projecting the Twins pitching starts with a bottle of Jack.

 

Classic.

[TheLeviathan]

What difference does the distinction about Ryan make? If your point is that Ryan would be a free agent spender for another club, it's irrelevant if he is the GM here. The point, either way, is that expecting that this team was going to go splash into free agency and fix a terrible rotation in one off-season was baseless for anything but wishful thinking regardles of whether you blame Ryan or the Pohlads. Either way it was highly unlikely to have expected that, which is what mike was getting at.

 

We shouldn't be that shocked that our 2013 rotation is not significantly improved. It was the far more reasonable belief based on pretty much every available basis for making a prediction besides blind hope.

[Jim Crikket]

What difference does the distinction about Ryan make? If your point is that Ryan would be a free agent spender for another club, it's irrelevant if he is the GM here. The point, either way, is that expecting that this team was going to go splash into free agency and fix a terrible rotation in one off-season was baseless for anything but wishful thinking regardles of whether you blame Ryan or the Pohlads. Either way it was highly unlikely to have expected that, which is what mike was getting at.

 

We shouldn't be that shocked that our 2013 rotation is not significantly improved. It was the far more reasonable belief based on pretty much every available basis for making a prediction besides blind hope.

 

...or... you know... base the expectations on exactly that Ryan said he intended to do in interviews. If our expectations this time were unreasonable, it was Ryan who established them by telling everyone his intention was to explore every avenue to add better starting pitching. I'm sorry, but adding a bunch of guys who MIGHT be acceptable #5 pitchers IF they can transition from the NL and/or come back from major injuries and/or have better years than any other years in their careers simply is not what Ryan himself led fans to believe he would settle for.

[ThePuck]

a) Much of that was Bill Smith

For the rest of it, we were dealing with Metrodome dollars

 

c) (most important) It's still all speculation with absolutely no proof.

 

How do you figure it's still all speculation with absolutely no proof? The person I was responding to said we can't sign FAs because we're a last place team. So I asked why we didn't sign any top FA pitching when we were first place teams. Did we do that and I missed it?

 

Saying we can't sign anyone because we're a last place team is simplistic...because we were a first place team before and didn't sign any top notch pitching. That includes the offseason prior to going into TF and the first offseason after being in TF.

 

But I get it, it's all Bill Smith's fault. Ryan couldn't sign anyone last offseason after being only one year removed from back to back first place finishes with the most recent of the two first place finishes scoring 94 wins. His team was also in TF ....and instead of getting pitching, he cut payroll. Oh wait, he got Marquis.

 

Thing is, if one tries, there's always a reason to throw out there as to why we didn't sign any quality starting pitching through free agency. If we win the division, they won't go sign quality starting pitching because the rotation was good enough to win the division, if we don't and play horribly, well no pitcher wants to come play here. In the meantime, they cut payroll 18M last offseason and have cut more this offseason.

[TheLeviathan]

it was Ryan who established them by telling everyone his intention was to explore every avenue to add better starting pitching. .

 

Agreed, even more reason to disregard any distinction about Ryan/Pohlads that tries to deflect away from Ryan's accountability.

[Jim Crikket]

Agreed, even more reason to disregard any distinction about Ryan/Pohlads that tries to deflect away from Ryan's accountability.

 

Exactly right. As far as I'm concerned, Ryan and the Pohlads are synonymous. Both are equally culpable for failing (this far) to address the current rotation issues in any serious manner. Yes, it's ownership that establish budgetary limits. However, how many times did we hear Jim Pohlad, Dave St. Peter and Terry Ryan say publicly that budget is not an issue... that Ryan doesn't get told he "can't" spend money... that they intended to field a competitive team in 2013, not just rebuild for the future? Didn't Ryan, himself, say that it was his job to assemble a rotation... in fact an entire roster... capable of doing so?

 

Does he get off the hook because FA prices were higher than he expected? I would hope not.

 

Look, I've been a Terry Ryan fan for years. I still really like the guy and think he's a VERY smart baseball man. But he and his bosses ALL have been telling fans we should expect to see a competitive team in 2013. That being the case, I just can't understand why so many people are willing to accept less from this front office.

[old nurse]

Exactly right. As far as I'm concerned, Ryan and the Pohlads are synonymous. Both are equally culpable for failing (this far) to address the current rotation issues in any serious manner. Yes, it's ownership that establish budgetary limits. However, how many times did we hear Jim Pohlad, Dave St. Peter and Terry Ryan say publicly that budget is not an issue... that Ryan doesn't get told he "can't" spend money... that they intended to field a competitive team in 2013, not just rebuild for the future? Didn't Ryan, himself, say that it was his job to assemble a rotation... in fact an entire roster... capable of doing so?

 

 

You still do not know who turned down advances.

 

Does he get off the hook because FA prices were higher than he expected? I would hope not.

 

Look, I've been a Terry Ryan fan for years. I still really like the guy and think he's a VERY smart baseball man. But he and his bosses ALL have been telling fans we should expect to see a competitive team in 2013. That being the case, I just can't understand why so many people are willing to accept less from this front office.

 

In a job market there are scarce professions. Elite level pitchers are propbably the most scarce. They pretty much have options on where to play. Why on earth would any free agent want to play on a last place team despite overtures? That leaves you fighting to get the ones that the top does not want. That usually happens late. The big boys finish their shopping soon. The cellar dwellers will have their chance next. It at this case is not accepting less, rather having enough sense to show some patience.

[Brian Mozey]

Let's go get Freddy Garcia or one of the top starters like Lohse or Edwin Jackson. People who can win over 15 games and hasn't just come back from Tommy John Surgery or some kind of injury.

[70charger]

My point on speculation is that, without some sort of direct line to the top level of Twins' discussions, nobody here knows a darn thing, but we're all too eager to pontificate about what we do "know." For all we "know," Terry Ryan offered $140 million to Greinke and got beat out by the Dodgers. I don't know. I doubt you do, unless you were on the phone call with his agent.

 

I think there's a lot of speculation going on that ignores that which is called "silent evidence" (by a scholar that I'm particularly fond of). Silent evidence is that which we do not know because we cannot see it and therefore ignore in favor of what we can see, which may not actually be representative.

 

To illustrate silent evidence, I posit this [fake] conversation:

Me: "How do you know that you've cured cancer, doctor?"

Doctor: "Well, nobody that I've given my cure to has come back to tell me that it didn't work."

 

To extend the point, all of the blind speculators here are pointing at the people we didn't sign and assuming that this is proof positive that we didn't try, that we didn't care, that Terry Ryan is one of the three stooges, that the Pohlads are actually descendants of Hitler, that the general management of the club is full of functional retards, that the Twins are pure evil incarnate...

 

It doesn't add up. Here's my thought. The Twins are doing the best they can, and it is likely that budget constraints (despite Target Field, we're not the Yankees) as well as general frugality are keeping the general management from splurging on the top of the order free agents. What I cannot accept is the idea that they don't care/hate the fans/are idiots. Until we know for sure, all we can do is speculate. Why would we speculate that the Twins' staff want us to suffer? Isn't it more likely that they're saving as much money as possible while attempting to field a <100 loss team, intending to spend more on free agents when free agent spending will actually matter?

 

I think so.

[Top Gun]

I think not. If Ryan had offer any contracts it would have been reported, not one has even been reported so it not hard to tell that he hasn't offer any.

[Jim Crikket]

I guess if you want to believe that, despite there being pretty much no hint whatsoever of the Twins doing more than "checking in" with agents of real pitchers, Terry Ryan has actually been working his ass off to sign one or more of those guys and always comes just THIS close, but always gets outbid by another team or the pitcher always wants to sign with better teams (like those perennial champions the Chicago Cubs, for example?), that's fine. I think you're giving him too much credit and I'll actually believe he is seriously going after a real pitcher when he actually gets one to sign on the dotted line... because the next time he lands one will be the first time. Until then, I'm done giving him credit for "trying".

[Kwak]

Much teeth gnashing attacking/defending the FO. True, starting pitching was (still is!) a major problem and the FO admittedly has focused on that problem--but it sure wasn't the only deficiency on the roster. The Twins are under-powered, and quite frankly the back-half of the line didn't have anywhere near high enough OBP to justify their abysmal SLG. Span and Revere (neither with the team anymore!) did provide quality OBP, but their lack of SLG combined with the back half's poor OBP, and their combined RBI total was at best lacklustre (worse IMO). Tall and short of it, Ryan hasn't devoted any resources for improving the offense despite being "under budget" for the acquisition of the three promised starting pitchers. Then there is the question of substandard infield defense and the need to improve there (especially in DP efficiency) considering the Twins lack of Ks and plethora of ground balls. Those defending the actions of the FO by using quantity and not quality as the basis for signing free agent pitching (and its resultant lower cost!) when nothing has been done to improve the other deficiencies in the team by utilizing some (all?) of the money "saved" by signing lower cost pitchers.

[70charger]

I guess if you want to believe that, despite there being pretty much no hint whatsoever of the Twins doing more than "checking in" with agents of real pitchers, Terry Ryan has actually been working his ass off to sign one or more of those guys and always comes just THIS close, but always gets outbid by another team or the pitcher always wants to sign with better teams (like those perennial champions the Chicago Cubs, for example?), that's fine. I think you're giving him too much credit and I'll actually believe he is seriously going after a real pitcher when he actually gets one to sign on the dotted line... because the next time he lands one will be the first time. Until then, I'm done giving him credit for "trying".

 

I think perhaps you're missing the point. I don't think it's likely that he offered $140 million for Greinke, but my point wasn't whether that was likely (or anything that is known is likely), but that what is unknown is more powerful than many are giving it credit for, as they only focus on the known and, more specifically, the known negative.

 

And I'm on record saying that I find it likely that they are "saving as much money as possible while attempting to field a <100 loss team, intending to spend more on free agents when free agent spending will actually matter."

 

Which of course is the smart thing to do.

[70charger]

I'm going to try this one more time, and perhaps I'll get a better response. Let me go back to that ever-flowing cancer-analogy well.

 

If you go into the doctor and have a biopsy, and the biopsy comes back negative, you do not not have cancer. You have an absence of evidence of cancer (i.e., you didn't find any in the biopsy). On the other hand, the biopsy may have missed a small cancer cell cluster that could turn into a major problem. Until all is known, there is not evidence of absence of any cancer cells.

 

Note the difference - and it is a crucial difference. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

 

Let's again extend the point. That which is currently known is that the Twins haven't signed anyone of note. There is an absence of evidence that they have attempted to sign or will sign someone that TD can agree is good. On the other hand, without something more substantial than speculation, there is no actual knowledge that we have not tried.

 

We have absence of evidence. We do not have evidence of absence. I'm not "giving the front office credit." I'm simply not excoriating them for something that we don't know that they haven't done.