Article: State of the Starting Corps

[Badsmerf]

Going into last season the rotation looked ok, but when your two best starters don't pitch the whole year its going to be a tough year. Add in the ineffectiveness of Blackburn and Liriano and its not surprising the team struggled. The rotation to start the year is clearly better, even with Correia. Correia, despite his inadequacies, is a known commodity. He will be below average. The other options the Twins have (which pitched way too many of the innings last season) are terrible. This team will be better than last year and wont lose 90 games again. I see them being a little under 500. The pessimism on this site right now is alarming.

[old nurse]

You're correct, Chief. I stand corrected... it was a year earlier that the Twins re-signed Pavano. I guess there were NO rotation FAs signed at this point last year.

 

They perused Buerhle for 2012. What other free agent that was obtainable (ie no Cliff Lee) would have you gone for and what was their 2012 result?

[ThePuck]

Nobody thought the Twins rotation in Dec 2011 was very good.

 

That is not the same thing as saying the potential Twins rotation in Dec 2011 looked better than the potential Twins rotation in Dec 2012.

 

His words were 'far superior', not 'looked better'.

[RedBull34]

@ Top Gun. Even if Joe Benson is a total flop offensively, the guy has a great glove. Hicks will take over CF at some point (hopefully succeed) and Arcia will be in RF by the time we trade either Morneau or Willingham (remember the Beltran trade? I think the Twins could get that for either come deadline if they are hot). Defensively the outfield will look better by the trade deadline. Honestly I want to see Benson starting in CF as a do or die type test. He's become irrelevant quickly but should be given a chance in the six weeks it will take to bring up Hicks (for the extra year of TC).

[nicksaviking]

Are you kidding? Who thought our rotation was anything but junk going into the 2012 season? We had the 26th ranked rotation in the majors in 2011 and added Marquis. It was a disaster way before April

 

No one liked the rotation heading into last year, never did I say the 2012 rotation at this point was a quality one. I simply said it was superior to the one we see now.

[Shane Wahl]

Why is the "on paper" discussion even happening? Last year occurred and we can predict how this rotation compares to what actually happened last year. Even if Diamond regresses some (hard to imagine a "dramatic" regression), a full season of him is going to be better than last year. Some people are really under-valuing Worley, who is similar to Scott Baker. Hendriks is bound to be significantly improved as well. After that, it is pretty cloudy yes, but I think they actually have 5th starters now. That was not true for two months last year.

[nicksaviking]

His words were 'far superior', not 'looked better'.

 

Right, which part of that is incorrect? Chris Herrmann is far superior of Drew Buetera, it still doesn't mean he's any good.

[JB_Iowa]

What I see are a number of posters trying to convince us (and possibly themselves) that this rotation won't be "that bad". Well, guess what? Before the Baker need for TJ surgery last year, many people thought that rotation wouldn't be "that bad" -- there were even some who predicted that the improvements to the Twins hitting might be good enough to put them in the playoffs (MLB Predictions 2012: Why the Minnesota Twins Can Make the Playoffs | Bleacher Report)

 

Well, I'm not going to drink the Kool-Aid again. Sure, there's a possibility that this rotation will be better than last year (and heaven knows, given how many minor leaguers the Twins had to bring up to start last season, it SHOULD be better) but even if it is better, how MUCH better?

 

Enough to account for the losses of Span and Revere? I have no problem with those trades -- I'm in favor of a complete rebuild -- but HOW does ANYTHING that Ryan did this off-season with a fair amount of money available to him significantly improve this team for 2013 OR for the future.

 

His purchases in the free agent market aren't likely to be anything that can be turned into something better in the future nor do they do much for this year. AND he has seemingly left a pool of money on the table (at least thus far) that might have allowed him to purchase something better (even if it was a position player or two rather than a pitcher).

 

Terry Ryan did okay with the trades but his penurious ways in the free agent market continue to be frustrating. This team may talk about the 50+% rule when they are using it as a "cap" -- but c'mon Mr. St. Peter, let's hear you talking about it now that Mr. Ryan seems to be ignoring it when putting in a floor. He still has several weeks to redeem himself but as of right now, Mr. Ryan gets a great big D or F when it comes to free agent acquisitions.

[Big City]

The pessimism on this site right now is alarming.

 

Agreed, and it's articles like this that unnecessarily spurn negativity. The writer failed to mention that TR was quoted to still be looking to add starting pitching and the writer also tried to compare the current rotation to last year’s opening day rotation as if currently we're worse off. Oh wait, he listed Scott Baker but Bake was destined for Tommy John surgery before opening day. This article could have more easily been written looking at things glass half-full and would have been closer to the truth. TR will sign another starting pitcher, he's already added 3 new starting pitchers to the current rotation, and he's added 2 top of the rotation prospects without trading away the middle of our lineup. I'd say the state of the pitching rotation looks pretty darn good considering it's only December 19th.

[Rosterman]

You hope your rotation (top four pitchers) can get you 50 wins at least. Ideal would be 65-70 from all five! That means they pitch into at least the 6th holding a lead.

[jmlease1]

Baker & Liriano are more talented than any of the new 4 pitchers, save Gibson perhaps. But injuries and inconsistency made them bad options last season. As correctly noted, Baker didn't throw a single regular season pitch last year. Marquis was abysmal. Pavano was declining, injured, and terrible. Liriano was inconsistent and overall bad.

 

If Worley, Correia, and Pelfrey are all healthy throughout the season the performance of the pitching staff will probably improve. Correia's my least favorite signing of the off-season, and even he should put up better numbers than the combination of Nick Blackburn/Carl Pavano did last season in 30 starts. Worley should give the team better numbers than the combo platter of Liriano/Walters over 33 starts. Pelfrey could do better than the 27 starts we got from Hedriks/Duensing and shouldn't do worse.

 

The problem is, we're talking about marginal improvements. I actually have pretty high hopes for Gibson, but I also expect his innings to be limited and lessen his impact this season. But getting the starting pitching from abysmal to competent could have a pretty big impact. If the new starters can get through the early innings without putting the team in a big hole, maybe that's a big enough step up to show improvement. The bullpen should still be very solid, especially with Duensing there and not messing around with him as a starter.

 

The other advantage I see is we're not counting on Walters, Hendriks, Blackburn, Deduno, and De Vries to fill 2-3 spots in the rotation. We'll be looking at that group to fill maybe 1 slot and/or be ready to go if someone else falters/gets injured. (I want Gibson in the 5th slot even at the start of the season, that way he can get skipped a few times over the course of the season to monitor his innings yet still be stretched out over a full season)

[Shane Wahl]

Freddy Garcia is next.

[ThePuck]

Right, which part of that is incorrect? Chris Herrmann is far superior of Drew Buetera, it still doesn't mean he's any good.

 

I don't see how looking at the rotation we had in Dec 2011 is FAR SUPERIOR to the rotation we're looking at now is what I'm saying. Obviously others disagree.

[ThePuck]

You hope your rotation (top four pitchers) can get you 50 wins at least. Ideal would be 65-70 from all five! That means they pitch into at least the 6th holding a lead.

 

Only need to go 5 inngs to be pitcher of record...no need to go into the 6th inning to get a win

[Shane Wahl]

Freddy Garcia apparently choosing between Reds (as long-reliever), Rockies, and Twins. Let's see: if Garcia wants to make any money beyond 2013, he certainly won't take his flyball-inducing "skill" to Colorado. Competing might draw him to Cincinnati. Otherwise, methinks he's a twin. Insert Shaun Marcum instead of Kevin Corriea, and I wouldn't have minded adding Pelfrey and Garcia.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The other advantage I see is we're not counting on Walters, Hendriks, Blackburn, Deduno, and De Vries to fill 2-3 spots in the rotation. We'll be looking at that group to fill maybe 1 slot and/or be ready to go if someone else falters/gets injured. (I want Gibson in the 5th slot even at the start of the season, that way he can get skipped a few times over the course of the season to monitor his innings yet still be stretched out over a full season)

 

The problem I see is that we weren't counting on them to fill spots last year either (Sans Blackburn), but at one point, they were what we had. Personally I'm fairly excited about Deduno and I'm wondering if this could be our RA Dickey type pickup, but there's a pretty sizable likelihood there that it won't be anything of that nature. We have two TJ question marks in the system, though I fully expect Gibson to either start in AAA or get delayed this spring. Pelfrey, on the other hand, is a one year rental, so I doubt there will be much for innings limits and what not. Worley isn't exactly injury free, though his was pretty minor. That's a lot of question marks to go with Correia, who won't be very effective, and Diamond, who is a prime candidate to regress... Perhaps Diamond can comp out more like another leftie that people around here covet (Buehrle), but that's a tight line to walk and highly unlikely.

[beehles]

It is pretty sad they've gathered so much more salary cap capability and put it toward guys like Corriea. I understand not wanting to overpay for a player but come on. Let's give the fans a glimmer of hope. I've been anxiously checking every day this free agency in hopes of making a great aquisition that can help the team now and have been utterly disappointed. I love the trades and the look of the future, but what about now!? Come on man!

[nicksaviking]

Freddy Garcia is next.

 

If this goes down, the Twins will have signed two pitchers who were banished to the bullpen last year. I guess it's like Ryan said though, it's about quantity this year, I just wish it was a tiny bit about quality.

 

With no sarcasm intended, hopefully the Twins are able to do something special with three consecutive top five draft picks. The future is bright, it just seems unneccessary to make the present so abysmal in the process.

[cmathewson]

Durability needs to be part of the equation. Baker gave the Twins 0 innings last year. Pavano gutted out 63 ugly innings while injured. Liriano was healthy but wild. I would take Worely in a heartbeat over Liriano. I would take Pelfrey over Baker. And I would take Corriea over Pavano. And that does not count the guys who are waiting for opportunities, such as Gibson, who were not even an option last year.

 

I'm not saying it's a good staff by any stretch. But it's much better than the staff we started the year with last year, which could not get much worse.

[jokin]

Going into last season the rotation looked ok, but when your two best starters don't pitch the whole year its going to be a tough year. Add in the ineffectiveness of Blackburn and Liriano and its not surprising the team struggled. The rotation to start the year is clearly better, even with Correia. Correia, despite his inadequacies, is a known commodity. He will be below average. The other options the Twins have (which pitched way too many of the innings last season) are terrible. This team will be better than last year and wont lose 90 games again. I see them being a little under 500. The pessimism on this site right now is alarming.

 

Uh, the Twins had numerous options who pitched "below average" last year who were playing for the minimum, as a group, they are only marginally worse than Correia, and guys like Hendriks, and even Deduno, have significantly more upside than Correia to be significantly improved in 2013 over their 2012 numbers. I would also remonstrate through past stats and projections that Deunsing, and even possibly Cole DeVries, brought more value to their pitching staff than Correia did in 2012 and have a chance to contribute at a level at least at what Correia offers in 2013 for only 10% on the dollar.

[Nick Nelson]

At no point in the article did I compare the current group to last year's Opening Day rotation. What I said was that if I'm Terry Ryan, I have a hard time feeling confident that this unit will perform significantly better overall than last year's. I'm not saying that the present outlook is worse, I just don't know that it's much better.

 

Of the five pitchers I listed as the top candidates, two are coming back from TJ surgery and four have never thrown a pitch in the American League. Outside of Pelfrey, there is a total of ONE MLB season with 175+ IP in the entire collection (Correia in 2009).

 

That's a lot of uncertainty and if they moved forward counting on the five guys I mentioned, it's hard to imagine they wouldn't have to once again dip into Triple-A repeatedly.

 

Also, I'm not assuming that Ryan is done by any means. This is a snapshot of the current situation, nothing more. As I said, I believe it would help a lot to add an established quality pitcher that can push others down the depth chart, and there are still some guys like that out there. The fact of the matter is that we haven't seen the Twins tied to such players, and instead we see them popping up next to names like Freddy Garcia.

[jokin]

Baker & Liriano are more talented than any of the new 4 pitchers, save Gibson perhaps. But injuries and inconsistency made them bad options last season. As correctly noted, Baker didn't throw a single regular season pitch last year. Marquis was abysmal. Pavano was declining, injured, and terrible. Liriano was inconsistent and overall bad.

 

If Worley, Correia, and Pelfrey are all healthy throughout the season the performance of the pitching staff will probably improve. Correia's my least favorite signing of the off-season, and even he should put up better numbers than the combination of Nick Blackburn/Carl Pavano did last season in 30 starts. Worley should give the team better numbers than the combo platter of Liriano/Walters over 33 starts. Pelfrey could do better than the 27 starts we got from Hedriks/Duensing and shouldn't do worse.

 

The problem is, we're talking about marginal improvements. I actually have pretty high hopes for Gibson, but I also expect his innings to be limited and lessen his impact this season. But getting the starting pitching from abysmal to competent could have a pretty big impact. If the new starters can get through the early innings without putting the team in a big hole, maybe that's a big enough step up to show improvement. The bullpen should still be very solid, especially with Duensing there and not messing around with him as a starter.

 

The other advantage I see is we're not counting on Walters, Hendriks, Blackburn, Deduno, and De Vries to fill 2-3 spots in the rotation. We'll be looking at that group to fill maybe 1 slot and/or be ready to go if someone else falters/gets injured. (I want Gibson in the 5th slot even at the start of the season, that way he can get skipped a few times over the course of the season to monitor his innings yet still be stretched out over a full season)

 

How much marginal improvement are you really getting for your $10M commitment?

 

Correia (NL Numbers) IP-171...K/9-4.68...BB/9-2.42...FIP-4.43...WAR-0.9

 

DeVries (AL Numbers) IP-87...K/9-5.95...BB/9-1.85...FIP-4.90...WAR-0.4

 

Deunsing (AL Numbers) IP-109...K/9-5.70...BB/9-2.23...FIP-3.82...WAR-1.3

 

Hendriks (AL Numbers) IP-85 (+106AAA)...K/9-5.27...BB/9-2.74...FIP-5.57...WAR--0.2 (AAA): IP-106...K/9-6.94...BB/9-2.37...ERA-2.20

[jokin]

At no point in the article did I compare the current group to last year's Opening Day rotation. What I said was that if I'm Terry Ryan, I have a hard time feeling confident that this unit will perform significantly better overall than last year's. I'm not saying that the present outlook is worse, I just don't know that it's much better.

 

Of the five pitchers I listed as the top candidates, two are coming back from TJ surgery and four have never thrown a pitch in the American League. Outside of Pelfrey, there is a total of ONE MLB season with 175+ IP in the entire collection (Correia in 2009).

 

That's a lot of uncertainty and if they moved forward counting on the five guys I mentioned, it's hard to imagine they wouldn't have to once again dip into Triple-A repeatedly.

 

Also, I'm not assuming that Ryan is done by any means. This is a snapshot of the current situation, nothing more. As I said, I believe it would help a lot to add an established quality pitcher that can push others down the depth chart, and there are still some guys like that out there. The fact of the matter is that we haven't seen the Twins tied to such players, and instead we see them popping up next to names like Freddy Garcia.

 

If anything, the level of uncertainty has been significantly raised over last season- and signing Freddy Garcia would only raise the certainty of one more guy on the staff at or near the top of the gopher ball leader board. (Freddy's #s were around the top 5 for both HR/9 and HR/FB).

[Shane Wahl]

$5.5 million to Blackburn, $4.5 million to Correia, $4 million to Pelfrey, and let's say $3 million to Garcia. That's $17 million towards, um, bad. Last year it was $25 million or so to very bad. And people will still contend that Mauer's contract is the problem.

[jokin]

If this goes down, the Twins will have signed two pitchers who were banished to the bullpen last year. I guess it's like Ryan said though, it's about quantity this year, I just wish it was a tiny bit about quality.

 

With no sarcasm intended, hopefully the Twins are able to do something special with three consecutive top five draft picks. The future is bright, it just seems unneccessary to make the present so abysmal in the process.

 

Hopefully, with the warming up to Boras, Appel is their prime target in the draft in 2013. I ask again, who has the names of the top 3 projected picks in 2014?, 'cause that's where the Twins are likely to slot. 2 major league-ready draftable SPs on the 40-man roster going into 2015 is about the best thing to be hopefully optimistic about.

[old nurse]

Uh, the Twins had numerous options who pitched "below average" last year who were playing for the minimum, as a group, they are only marginally worse than Correia, and guys like Hendriks, and even Deduno, have significantly more upside than Correia to be significantly improved in 2013 over their 2012 numbers. I would also remonstrate through past stats and projections that Deunsing, and even possibly Cole DeVries, brought more value to their pitching staff than Correia did in 2012 and have a chance to contribute at a level at least at what Correia offers in 2013 for only 10% on the dollar.

 

What possible upside does Duensing, Deduno or DeVries have? Last year was an extended enough period of time each showed what they could do as a starter. Duensing was put back in the bullpen, Deduno regressed as the season wore on. DeVries does a workman like effort but appears to be a 5 inning 6th starter.

[jokin]

$5.5 million to Blackburn, $4.5 million to Correia, $4 million to Pelfrey, and let's say $3 million to Garcia. That's $17 million towards, um, bad. Last year it was $25 million or so to very bad. And people will still contend that Mauer's contract is the problem.

 

Cmon, there's at least some evidence in the Twins reluctance to spend that there is at least a minor causal link in the Twins not wanting to spend what it takes based on the commitment and resulting circumstances to Mauer. I still think the Twins are still in psychological recovery of the Gobsmacking they got from Mauer's disastrous season and all the other injuries they incurred in 2011, which carried over to the high-dollar SPs in 2012.

[jokin]

What possible upside does Duensing, Deduno or DeVries have? Last year was an extended enough period of time each showed what they could do as a starter. Duensing was put back in the bullpen, Deduno regressed as the season wore on. DeVries does a workman like effort but appears to be a 5 inning 6th starter.

 

Correia 171 IP in 32 Games Played. That works out to 5.34 innings per appearance. At an average salary of $5M, that's $156,250/gm played. DeVries averaged 5.12 innings per appearance and he obviously makes less than 1/10 of Correia for similar numbers (3 Correia games pitched=DeVries entire season salary).

 

For the record, if you carefully read my post, I made no mention of "upside" for Duensing or DeVries.

 

On the other hand, I don't think anyone argues that Hendriks can't be a lot better than Correia, and Deduno has the electric stuff that Correia could only dream about, not saying he will ever get there, but at least his Dominican performance and occasional strong start last year suggests he could catch lightining in a bottle for a couple of years- all for the League Minimum.

 

I am mostly arguing the economics of this signing and I don't see how this was money well spent.

[rickyriolo]

posed this question yesterday to David Schoenfield of ESPN on yesterday's chat: Are the Twins finished dealing after trading Span,Revere and signing Correia & Pelfrey? Will they finish dead last again in the AL? Schoenfield's response: Shaping up to be quite a race between the Indians and Twins. Correria , Pelfrey Worley.....doesn't inspire much confidence

[Jim Crikket]

Freddy Friggin Garcia? Seriously?

 

Is it possible to astonished and yet not surprised much at all?

 

It has become obvious that Ryan decided to spend his money on 3-4 crappy options at $3-5 million a piece, rather than 2 legitimate Major League pitchers at $10+ million each. Could be a complete overreaction to the injuries last year but nobody should be at all surprised if the results are 100+ losses. And the most frustrating thing is that it didn't have to happen. The money is... or should be... available to have significantly improved the top of the rotation, not just add a few guys who might arguably be better #5 starters than the 2012 crew.