4 Questions to Answer in the Final 4 Games

[Cooper Carlson]

The Twins have four games remaining this season and there are still a few questions we need answered. Who will start game one of the playoffs? Who can be trusted in the bullpen? Who will be the main catcher? Let’s try to find an answer.1. Who is the game one playoff starter?

 

The Twins will (likely) be facing off against the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. Who do you want facing off against their lineup and against Gerrit Cole in game one? It will undoubtedly be either Kenta Maeda or Jose Berrios, but who gets the nod?

 

It appears right now like Jose Berrios is lined up with how the rotation currently shakes out so perhaps that is the way it will go. I like Berrios in game one because I would rather have him go against Cole and then have Maeda in game two with a clear advantage. I think the Twins will go with Berrios in game one and then Kenta Maeda.

 

2. Who do you trust in the late innings of a playoff game?

 

What if I told you the two pitchers with the worst ERA in the Twins bullpen are Taylor Rogers (4.34) and Trevor May (4.22)? That is not ideal. The two with the best ERA are somehow Matt Wisler (1.62) and Caleb Thielbar (169). Baseball is weird and it’s even weirder with 60 games.

 

When the playoffs roll around and you have a one run lead in the 8th inning do you give the ball to Taylor Rogers or Caleb Thielbar? The answer is obvious, you give it to your best guys and ignore the regular season statistics. Basically when the playoffs arrive you give the ball to your best players and ignore regular season stats.

 

3. Who will be the starting catcher throughout the playoffs?

 

“But Cooper, how can you say throughout the playoffs if they will only play two games?”

 

Hey, shut it Mr. Negative!

 

The Twins have to decide between Ryan Jeffers, Mitch Garver, and Alex Avila to be the main catcher throughout the playoffs. They all have strengths and could all get playing time, but who is going to be “the guy” behind the plate?

 

Mitch Garver is going to end up being the guy. His offense has slowly picked up and his defense is certainly there. You can’t ignore what happened in 2019 and by the end of the season I think Garver will have gained the trust back. I like Jeffers a ton for the future but this is still Garver’s catching position.

 

4. Can the Twins steal the division?

 

With four games remaining, the Twins have a 30% chance to win the division but just a few days ago it was less than 15% so things are going well. If Cleveland and the Cubs can shut down the White Sox then the Twins will sneak in to win the division and avoid playing the Yankees. Can you imagine that? Playoffs without playing the Yankees!

 

It would be so great to hang a division banner for 2020 and play a team like Cleveland or Toronto in the playoffs. I get the whole idea of proving the Twins can beat the Yankees but I mean why not just go beat Toronto or something. That would be much more fun. The Twins need this division.

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[theBOMisthebomb]

With a playoff game on the line in the 9th inning, I want Romo out there. It doesn't seem Rogers gives the Twins much of an advantage.

[jrod23]

"The answer is obvious, you give it to your best guys and ignore the regular season statistics. Basically when the playoffs arrive you give the ball to your best players and ignore regular season stats."

 

Hmmmm.  So you don't go with who's hot, you go with who's not?  Don't get me wrong.  I get your logic.  You want your tried and true guys out there, and not your overachievers.  I'd love for Rogers to turn it around, but do you cross your fingers and hope he does it in the playoffs, and disregard how Wisler and Thielbar have been lights out whenever called upon?

 

I just don't think it's an "obvious" answer.

[twinbythebay]

I'm pretty sure the rotation is setup for Maeda to start game 1, followed by Berrios and then Pineda (if necessary).

 

In the late innings, I think the Twins will play the matchups to determine who comes out of the bullpen. If a bunch of lefties are coming up, I think they'll still go with Rogers. If it's a bunch of righties, I'd expect them to go with Duffey or Romo. If they desperately need a strikeout or two, they might go to May.

 

Garver's dong last night was majestic, but I'd like to see him put the ball in play (or over the fence) a couple more times before declaring that his offense is definitely picking back up. Jeffers has been a godsend, and I would have no problem with them rolling with him in the playoffs. I suspect they'll go with a mix of the two, as Rocco rarely starts the same catcher more than two games in a row.

[Danchat]

They've announced Maeda as the #1, Berrios going second, and Pineda going third.

 

2: I'd trust Romo, Duffey, and Wisler first in close games late. Rogers and May haven't pitched like they did last year. Clippard has been decent, and Alcala and Stashak have looked good but haven't pitched in many close games.

 

3: I'd rotate between Garver and Jeffers. Jeffers is already a great defensive catcher and has hit way better too. Garver has still had troubles dropping pitches and letting more passed balls go by than he should, so I am a bit worried about him.

 

4. I still think the White Sox will win it, but I like our chances to stay ahead of the Yankees. Here's hoping the White Sox can keep stumbling against > .500 teams.

[ClosetFan]

OPS against during Sept 2020 (all Twins relievers with min 20 PA)

.442 Wisler (34 PA)

.490 Stashak (23 PA)

.519 Thielbar (29 PA)

.533 Clippard (33 PA)

.533 Duffey (33 PA)

.565 Romo (33 PA)

.669 May (31 PA)

.693 Alcala (28 PA)

.806 Rogers (29 PA)

[mikelink45]

Let's win and not be caught up in the old - he has been our guy - mantra.  

[davethekid]

CLE another walk-off, NYY getting blown out and Twins up 6-0. Back in first and sole possession in 3 innings!!!

[D.C Twins]

Maeda,

 

Duffy/Wiesler/Romo/Clippard;

 

By committee

 

Yes, yes they can

 

 

[Otwins]

I think Odorizzi, Hill and Homer Bailey factor in to the first round bullpen

[John Kelsey]

You would think after six years on the team, folks here could spell Duffey correctly. 

 

And Romo is probably around sixth on the list of guys I trust in the bullpen. 

[Channing1964]

i get it we dont wanna see the yankees. The way its playing out if we wanna go all the way we will have to beat em sooner or later. I dont see Oakland or Tampa taking them out at this point.

[TwinsFan268]

I have one more question: Will the robes be a thing through the playoffs?

[TopGunn#22]

It's just been kind of an "off" year for Rogers.  His stuff still looks nasty, but he just isn't finishing guys off like he did last year.  I've been wondering for 3 weeks when Tyler Duffey would get a chance to close.  He's got great stuff.  I know they use him for high-leverage situations, but i'd like to see him close a couple of games out.  

[rdehring]

 

i get it we dont wanna see the yankees. The way its playing out if we wanna go all the way we will have to beat em sooner or later. I dont see Oakland or Tampa taking them out at this point.

No we don't have to play the Yankees. Should we stay ahead of the Sox, we would probably open with Cleveland...which may be more difficult.

 

I give the Sox a chance of taking out those Yankees, especially if not playing in NYC. 

[Trov]

I think Rocco said the top three for first round already.  In terms of pitcher late inning, you need to go with the best matchups at that time.  If lefties up, Rodgers should get over Theibar, unless coaches feel Theibar is throwing better than Rodgers.  

 

For catcher, I go Jeffers overall.  Yes, Garver hit a HR but he still does not seem right and Jeffers has seemed to be better on both sides, could be wrong but that is what I feel.

 

Can we steal first, sure we can, but will not be easy.  Reds are in the thick of things for playoff spot, and Cubs have their spot pretty much locked up.  Not saying Cubs will not try to win, but you can bet they will rest people if needed and make sure they are ready for post-season.  Still, you see those games still go in favor of the other team.  

 

At least with our two wins and Yankees losses, hope they lose again today, It is more likely we get home field, as long as we can win a couple against Reds.  

[JoshDungan1]

 

Should we stay ahead of the Sox, we would probably open with Cleveland...which may be more difficult.

 

What could also now happen that we're (for the moment) in first in the division is that the A's take second seed, we could get the third seed, and then we'd be playing the Astros.

[ashbury]

 

OPS against during Sept 2020 (all Twins relievers with min 20 PA)

.442 Wisler (34 PA)

.490 Stashak (23 PA)

.519 Thielbar (29 PA)

.533 Clippard (33 PA)

.533 Duffy (33 PA)

.565 Romo (33 PA)

.669 May (31 PA)

.693 Alcala (28 PA)

.806 Rogers (29 PA)

I like those numbers, but take a look at their batting average on balls-in-play before deciding whether this is sustainable.
 

[stringer bell]

 

I like those numbers, but take a look at their batting average on balls-in-play before deciding whether this is sustainable.
 

Last night is a good example. Maeda absolutely shut down Detroit for five innings and in the last four innings Detroit got 10 hits, most of them from soft contact. Obviously Miggy's two bombs were not softly hit, but at least half of their ten hits were loopers that found the grass. 

[Shaitan]

 

OPS against during Sept 2020 (all Twins relievers with min 20 PA)

.442 Wisler (34 PA)

.490 Stashak (23 PA)

.519 Thielbar (29 PA)

.533 Clippard (33 PA)

.533 Duffey (33 PA)

.565 Romo (33 PA)

.669 May (31 PA)

.693 Alcala (28 PA)

.806 Rogers (29 PA)

 

I'm surprised how even everyone's usage has been.

[HuskerTwinsFan]

I haven’t seen the AL tiebreaker stats recently.  If I counted right, here is where every contending team stands now.

 

Tiebreaker 1:  Head to Head

• MN-CWS  (5-5)
• MN-CLE  (MN 7-3)
• TOR-NYY (6-3 TOR, 1 @ TOR)
• LAA-SEA (5-5)
• HOU-SEA  (7-3 HOU)
• LAA-HOU  (6-4 LAA)

Tiebreaker 2:  Intradivision Records

• CWS  25-14 (1 @ CLE)
• MN  23-17 (None left)
• CLE  22-17 (1 vs CWS)
• NYY  23-16 ( @ TOR)
• TOR  19-17 (1 vs NYY, 3 vs. BAL)
• LAA  19-21 (None left)
• SEA  18-18 (1 v A's, 3 @ A’s)
• HOU  18-18 (4 @ TX)

Tiebreaker 3:  Intradivision Last 20 games

• SEA  12-4 (1 vs A’s, 3 @ A’s)
• LAA  12-8 (None left)
• CWS  12-7 (1 @ CLE)
• CLE  11-8 (1 vs CWS)
• NYY  11-8 (1 @ TOR)
• MN  11-9 (None left)
• TOR  8-8 (1 vs NYY, 3 vs BAL)
• HOU 5-11 (4 @ TX)

Tiebreaker 4:  Add Intradivision games beyond 20

• CWS  8 wins
• TOR  3 wins
• NYY  1 win
• MN   0 wins
• LAA  0 wins
• SEA  0 wins
• CLE  0 wins

[stringer bell]

 

 

I haven’t seen the AL tiebreaker stats recently.  If I counted right, here is where every contending team stands now.

 

Tiebreaker 1:  Head to Head

• MN-CWS  (5-5)
• MN-CLE  (MN 7-3)
• TOR-NYY (6-3 TOR, 1 @ TOR)
• LAA-SEA (5-5)
• HOU-SEA  (7-3 HOU)
• LAA-HOU  (6-4 LAA)

Tiebreaker 2:  Intradivision Records

• CWS  25-14 (1 @ CLE)
• MN  23-17 (None left)
• CLE  22-17 (1 vs CWS)
• NYY  23-16 ( @ TOR)
• TOR  19-17 (1 vs NYY, 3 vs. BAL)
• LAA  19-21 (None left)
• SEA  18-18 (1 v A's, 3 @ A’s)
• HOU  18-18 (4 @ TX)

Tiebreaker 3:  Intradivision Last 20 games

• SEA  12-4 (1 vs A’s, 3 @ A’s)
• LAA  12-8 (None left)
• CWS  12-7 (1 @ CLE)
• CLE  11-8 (1 vs CWS)
• NYY  11-8 (1 @ TOR)
• MN  11-9 (None left)
• TOR  8-8 (1 vs NYY, 3 vs BAL)
• HOU 5-11 (4 @ TX)

Tiebreaker 4:  Add Intradivision games beyond 20

• CWS  8 wins
• TOR  3 wins
• NYY  1 win
• MN   0 wins
• LAA  0 wins
• SEA  0 wins
• CLE  0 wins

 

I count the Twins as 12-8 in their last 20 division games, which would mean that they will have the tiebreaker versus New York if the Yankees lose today.

[Rosterman]

 

I think Odorizzi, Hill and Homer Bailey factor in to the first round bullpen

I wish I knew if any of these guys would work better with an opener, so to speak. I would like to tagteam these starters. Two innings from one, maybe three from another.,..than the bullpen. But can they pitch if they don't start the actual game?