Twins Notebook 9/22: Homer Bailey Returns

[Andrew Thares]

Coming off a series victory at the Friendly Confines, the Minnesota Twins will begin a quick two-game series versus the Detroit Tigers Tuesday night, back home at Target Field. The Twins are currently slated into the 4th spot in the American League standings and are just 1.5 games back of the White Sox for first place in the division.Sunday’s Game Recap

MIN 4, CHC 0: Twins Down Darvish, Shutout Cubs

Today

Twins vs Tigers 6:40 pm CDT

Betting Line: MIN -200, DET +180, O/U: 10.5

 

Twins Starter: Homer Bailey, RHP 3.60 ERA

 

Homer Bailey made just one start for the Minnesota Twins, back on July 28, before ending up on the 45-day IL. After being activated this morning, Bailey will make his return to the mound in tonight’s matchup against the Tigers. Bailey had a respectable outing against the Cardinals in that start nearly two months ago, as he allowed just two runs over five innings pitched. It remains to be seen what kind of pitch count Bailey will be on tonight, but if he could repeat that outing, the Twins would surely take it. This is an important start for Bailey, who could still be in the Twins considerations for a spot as a long relief arm in the bullpen for the Postseason.

 

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Tigers Starter: Tarik Skubal, LHP 6.17 ERA

 

The Twins will be getting their third look of the season against one of the Tigers young and promising arms in lefty Tarik Skubal. Despite an overall disappointing rookie campaign, Skubal has pitched well in his two outings versus the Twins, only allowing three runs in eleven innings pitched. While Skubal has gotten beaten around pretty good in a few of his other starts this year, there is a lot of promise with the former 29th round pick in the 2017 MLB Draft. In his two seasons in the minors, Skubal posted a 2.11 ERA across 25 starts and eight relief outings.

 

Skubal features a mid-90s fastball, that he throws 60% of the time. His two secondary offerings are his slider and changeup. While the slider is a pitch that he will throw to both righties and lefties, Skubal has exclusively thrown his changeup only to righties this season. Skubal will also mix in the occasional curveball a few times per game.

 

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Twins Lineup

 

 

News & Notes

 

- The Twins activated pitcher Homer Bailey off the 45-day IL Tuesday morning, and optioned reliever Sean Poppen.

 

- The Oakland Athletics clinched the AL West on Monday night. It was their first division title since 2013.

 

- Toronto Blue Jays reliever Ken Giles will miss the rest of this season, and likely all of 2021, after having Tommy John surgery.

 

Around the AL Central

Indians 7, White Sox 4

Royals 4, Cardinals 1

 

1. CWS 34-20 0.0 GB (+72)

2. MIN 33-22 1.5 GB (+55)

3. CLE 30-24 4.0 GB (+40)

4. DET 22-30 11.0 GB (-64)

5. KC 22-32 12.0 GB (-31)

 

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[JoshDungan1]

We have a stupidly low BABIP against Skubal this season, hopefully that reverts a little tonight.

[Joey Self]

I will say right up front that Baldelli knows more about baseball in general and the Twins in particular than I ever will.  I'm sure Wes Johnson has watched Bailey throw, and must have liked what he saw.  

But since when does that keep me from second guessing, even in advance?

The Twins need to win, win, win, win, and then maybe take a day off.  I'd opined at Twinkietown that they might consider losing their way away from the Yankees, but it's more likely they can win their way above either the A's or the White Sox--and maybe both.

I hope Bailey is on a short leash tonight.  

JcS

 

[mikelink45]

I was not excited by Homer when we signed him, I am not excited by Homer now.  If the Detroit Tigers are going to be the judge on his value as a starter we are living in a crazy world.  (Oh yes - we are).

[Joey Self]

 

I was not excited by Homer when we signed him, I am not excited by Homer now.  If the Detroit Tigers are going to be the judge on his value as a starter we are living in a crazy world.  (Oh yes - we are).

Well, yes.   And no.

Pitching well against the Tigers doesn't tell us a lot about how he would do against the Yankees or any other playoff team. 

But...pitching poorly against them would tell us not to expect a great performance in the playoffs. 

JcS

[twins1095]

 

I was not excited by Homer when we signed him, I am not excited by Homer now.  If the Detroit Tigers are going to be the judge on his value as a starter we are living in a crazy world.  (Oh yes - we are).

 

Pitching Homer Bailey has less to do with expectations for him by the Twins and everything to do with allowing the Twins to stack their rotation in a way that lines up Maeda/Berrios/Pineda or Hill for the first playoff series.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was not excited by Homer when we signed him, I am not excited by Homer now.  If the Detroit Tigers are going to be the judge on his value as a starter we are living in a crazy world.  (Oh yes - we are).

Pretty sure the Twins can take competition into consideration when judging Bailey's performance tonight.

 

Although worth noting the Tigers overall offensive performance this year has been indistinguishable from that of the Cubs. (And better than that of Cleveland and KC.)

 

The choice is evaluating him in a real MLB game vs Detroit (and/or Cincinnati), or in a simulated game in St. Paul.

 

(And I'm guessing the ship has sailed on Bailey starting in the postseason, barring an unexpected emergency -- but he still needs to pitch to be evaluated for potential long relief duty.)

[joemama]

 

I was not excited by Homer when we signed him, I am not excited by Homer now.  If the Detroit Tigers are going to be the judge on his value as a starter we are living in a crazy world.  (Oh yes - we are).

How excited were you when we signed Matt Wisler? I think our guys know what they're doing. We have four clear starters for the post-season in Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, and Hill. If Odo is ready, we're at 5. That's a big if. Likely need to someone else ready in case Odo isn't. That's probably Dobnak, unless his struggles haven't been worked out. If they haven't, maybe it's Bailey. If he's no good tonight, it's Plan C.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Pitching Homer Bailey has less to do with expectations for him by the Twins and everything to do with allowing the Twins to stack their rotation in a way that lines up Maeda/Berrios/Pineda or Hill for the first playoff series.

The innings eating component is notable, with Odorizzi out and Dobnak optioned, although we could pitch Maeda/Hill/Pineda/Berrios the next 4 games, just like we did for the last turn through the rotation, and Maeda/Pineda/Berrios would still be in line start games 1-3 of the playoffs.

 

Inserting Bailey tonight doesn't hurt, but all it does it give Maeda an extra day of rest now and 5 days rest before playoffs game 1, as opposed to "normal" rest now (4 days) and 6 days rest before playoffs game 1.

 

The more important start to ensure the playoff rotation will be Sunday vs the Reds, and I suspect we could see Bailey again then too, and/or Odorizzi and Dobnak.

[TouchEmAllGuy]

I'm pretty sure even if the Twins have a better record than Oakland, they (Oakland) would still be the #3 seed due to them winning the division.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

but it's more likely they can win their way above either the A's or the White Sox--and maybe both.

 

 

I'm pretty sure even if the Twins have a better record than Oakland, they (Oakland) would still be the #3 seed due to them winning the division.

 

TouchEmAllGuy is correct -- passing the A's doesn't really mean anything by itself.

 

If we also pass the White Sox and win our division, passing Oakland too will have us face the #7 seed instead of #6. I think it may also gain us "home field" -- meaning, bat last in game 1 -- if we met Oakland in a later round, in the bubble? At least, that's how I presume they will determine "home team" in the bubble.

[Joey Self]

 

I'm pretty sure even if the Twins have a better record than Oakland, they (Oakland) would still be the #3 seed due to them winning the division.

 

You're right.  

So, the Twins need to catch the White Sox. 

JcS

[Joey Self]

 

How excited were you when we signed Matt Wisler? I think our guys know what they're doing. 

The question wasn't addressed to me, but my answer is:   Not a bit.  Never heard of him.  

Homer Bailey, on the other hand, was a known quantity to me (and I suspect many others here).

But I agree, I think the braintrust knows what it is doing.  If they saw something in the mechanics of a pitcher that Wes Johnson thought he could fix, then yeah, you give it a shot. 

JcS

[mikelink45]

 

How excited were you when we signed Matt Wisler? I think our guys know what they're doing. We have four clear starters for the post-season in Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, and Hill. If Odo is ready, we're at 5. That's a big if. Likely need to someone else ready in case Odo isn't. That's probably Dobnak, unless his struggles haven't been worked out. If they haven't, maybe it's Bailey. If he's no good tonight, it's Plan C.

Not excited at all but we churn through lots of BP arms so it did not really matter to me.  As it turned out, he has been great.   I was also not excited by Jhoulys Chacin, Ryan O'Rourke, Cory Gearrin, Danny Coulombe, or Juan Minaya.  RP come and go.  I want more from starters and I really hope that we look to our minor leaguers and build the rotation from within next year as we start with Berrios, Maeda, and Pineda.  

[ashbury]

A lot of pitching is the same regardless of the opponent. Movement, disguise, and hitting your spots. You'll get away with more, in terms of results, against a bad team than a good one. But if the evaluators are watching the fundamentals, and not just where the ball ends up, they should be able to draw useful conclusions even if it's the Tiggers.

[h2oface]

I hope this works out. I am pretty distressed about it right now. I mean, If Bieber and Cleveland take the Sox today, and we beat the Tigers, we are 1/2 game out of passing the Sox, and only one game back in the loss column. To throw Bailey out there now? We keep coming up with old options instead of young, like I see so many other teams doing. I sure hope it works out. I hope Baldelli starts playing the starters, too. Time to consider this the playoff push, and until we are eliminated from the Division title, to actually play for it. Same goes for home field if we are going to finish second. The Reds are still playing for a playoff birth too. This is no time to split with Detroit and come out the the season a pathetic 5-5 against them, or all horrors, 4-6. I mean, Chicago is 18-2 against Detroit and KC. We are 9-9. There is a 8 game advantage over us right there, 8 game, because they played those games to win, instead of throw away games like Baldelli orchestrated. At least there will be no Astudillo behind the plate.

 

edit: I see Cleveland moved Bieber to tomorrow to go against Giolito, and are pitching Quantrill today (bullpen game?), instead. Even more reason to win today, no matter what.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

What is wrong with Cruz?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Y'all are acting like Homer Bailey is waiver wire fodder.

 

He was a league average SP for a whole season in 2019, for a team in a pennant race after the trade deadline, including 2 strong starts vs NYY.

 

With no spring training this year, he held the Cardinals to 2 runs in 5 IP.

 

Even with his most recent absence, I doubt he is that much less likely to beat the Tigers tonight than any other Twins SP.

[yeahyabetcha]

Assuming Odo wasn’t healthy to go tonight. It really came down to Bailey or Dobnak. And neither one likely makes the post season roster anyways. Seems like a logical place to start Bailey

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Assuming Odo wasn’t healthy to go tonight. It really came down to Bailey or Dobnak. And neither one likely makes the post season roster anyways. Seems like a logical place to start Bailey

Odorizzi is ineligible to return until Sunday; Dobnak is ineligible to return until Saturday (unless someone goes on the IL).

[ashbury]

Y'all are acting like Homer Bailey is waiver wire fodder.

Do you expect he gets a guaranteed major-league contract this coming off-season? It doesn't matter how he was acquired this past off-season, now. I think it's fair if the playoff roster decisions mirror approximately the same logic as what comes a few weeks after.

 

Based on the performance he has shown so far, chronic-sounding injury plus one so-so game, he's down in that waiver-fodder category. He's now been given the professional courtesy of one game to turn that around. Too much pressure? The playoffs are all about "one game" and pressure. Let's roll, Bailey. If Rocco's giving you that chance, I'm rooting for you.

[yeahyabetcha]

Seems even more logical in that case

[DocBauer]

We have 4 quality SP to roll out for the playoffs, depending on how you feel about Hill. I'm encouraged and optimistic by his performance overall, especially coming off his last start. There is still room for a possible 5th starting option, but certainly for a long man. That spot is between Oddo if the finger gets right, Dobber and Bailey. Healthy in 2019 and with some tweaks to his pitch selection, he was indeed league average and closed well. He was good in his 1 and only start this season. We're this a normal length season, he could be coming back to provide a boost. As it is, he could still provide a boost as a long man. Don't disparage just yet. There's room for 1 of these 3 to really help come playoff time.

[ashbury]

Tuned into the game just in time to see Bailey trudge off the mound with the bases loaded in the fourth. Welp.

[Joey Self]

 

Tuned into the game just in time to see Bailey trudge off the mound with the bases loaded in the fourth. Welp.

Well, you missed three good innings.

JcS

[USAFChief]

A weird start tonight for Bailey. In the first inning, he was topping out in the mid 80s on his fastball. High 80s in the 2nd, got up into the low 90s by the 3rd.

 

Not very impressive, in any case. I know he got through the first 3 innings with no baserunners, but lots of good swings, and loud contact.

 

If they get to the second round, is he the 5th starter if Odo can't go?

[stringer bell]

 

A weird start tonight for Bailey. In the first inning, he was topping out in the mid 80s on his fastball. High 80s in the 2nd, got up into the low 90s by the 3rd.

Not very impressive, in any case. I know he got through the first 3 innings with no baserunners, but lots of good swings, and loud contact.

If they get to the second round, is he the 5th starter if Odo can't go?

I think Bailey has a legitimate shot to be the fifth starter. He seemed to have pretty good fortune the first three innings, but then some bad luck the second time through the order. I could see him and Odo piggyback the last game with the evaluation of who is sharper determining who makes the second round playoff roster. I was encouraged to see the velocity pick up in the second and third innings. 

[USAFChief]

I think Bailey has a legitimate shot to be the fifth starter. He seemed to have pretty good fortune the first three innings, but then some bad luck the second time through the order. I could see him and Odo piggyback the last game with the evaluation of who is sharper determining who makes the second round playoff roster. I was encouraged to see the velocity pick up in the second and third innings.

yeah, seemed like an audition.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If they get to the second round, is he the 5th starter if Odo can't go?

Maybe, but only in an emergency in the second round, I think (like a SP getting sick or injured). They could use their top 4 on normal rest for everything except a potential game 5, which would be winner-take-all -- and I suspect they'd rather just start Maeda on short rest and empty the pen if it comes to that.

 

The third round might be more likely to require a 5th starter -- if we're not facing elimination in game 5, we could roll out a 5th starter and then have Maeda back on normal rest in game 6.

 

Not to get ahead of ourselves, of course!

[USAFChief]

Maybe, but only in an emergency in the second round, I think (like a SP getting sick or injured). They could use their top 4 on normal rest for everything except a potential game 5, which would be winner-take-all -- and I suspect they'd rather just start Maeda on short rest and empty the pen if it comes to that.

 

The third round might be more likely to require a 5th starter -- if we're not facing elimination in game 5, we could roll out a 5th starter and then have Maeda back on normal rest in game 6.

 

Not to get ahead of ourselves, of course!

has Baldelli used a starter on short rest in his tenure here?

 

Granted, the ALDS would be a different situation, but I'd have to see it before I'd believe it.