Edwin Jackson

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

This isn't even worth debating if that is your approach to this subject.

 

Worth debating? I'm pretty sure I've made my point with stats, while you're just relying on smug ignorance, guesses, and personal opinion to make your point. Maybe you're right. It's not worth debating when I've been called crazy, insane, etc. when it comes to overpaying a player who probably would hurt us financially for 3 years. Jackson would be wasting cap space for the bright 2014 and 2015 teams.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So now we're down to using ERA as the sole metric of worth with no distinguishing between leagues.

 

I'm just gonna walk away from this thread now. Its baseball IQ dropped below my minimum threshold.

[edavis0308]

So now we're down to using ERA as the sole metric of worth with no distinguishing between leagues.

 

I'm just gonna walk away from this thread now. Its baseball IQ dropped below my minimum threshold.

 

Yep.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

So now we're down to using ERA as the sole metric of worth with no distinguishing between leagues.

 

I'm just gonna walk away from this thread now. Its baseball IQ dropped below my minimum threshold.

 

You use WAR as the sole metric, Brock. You must be so much better and advanced to use a stat that's nearly as flawed as the NBA's PER!! Why should I pay a pitcher 3X the salary when he can't even post a higher ERA than another guy. Jackson's NL ERA: 4.51 Jackson's AL ERA: 4:33

That's such a HUGE difference, huh!

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

The problem I have with all of you is you're just disregarding what I'm saying and acting stuck up. You haven't said it, but you're just hinting at me with you're smartass comments when you have provided next to nothing in facts. All I've received is snooty opinions. Pretty pathetic, that this is what I get for a conversation. Especially from one of the moderators.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It has nothing to do with his AL vs NL ERA. It has everything to do with using a career ERA of a guy who is 28 and has pitched much better in the past three seasons and your assumption that an average pitcher is paid the average MLB wage. One is intentionally ignoring recent performance to cherry-pick stats and the other is a logical fallacy based on bad math.

 

And I never used WAR to prove anything. I used it to point out the absurdity of claiming and "average" pitcher is worth $6m a year when WORSE and OLDER pitchers are earning DOUBLE that amount.

[edavis0308]

You're seriously killing the guy for the years when he was 23 pitching for the DEVIL rays? I've watched the guys on your "list" pitch. Jackson is the second best pitcher on that "list". You can have your bargain bin Wolf, Lowe, Garcia, Saunders, Guthrie, Blanton, et al. He hasturned a major corner since his AZ days, but if we can't "debate" stats, advanced stats, personal knowledge, researched knowledge, etc..then...well..

 

Hey Brock, wait up!! I'm coming!

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

It has nothing to do with his AL vs NL ERA. It has everything to do with using a career ERA of a guy who is 28 and has pitched much better in the past three seasons and your assumption that an average pitcher is paid the average MLB wage. One is intentionally ignoring recent performance to cherry-pick stats and the other is a logical fallacy based on bad math.

 

And I never used WAR to prove anything. I used it to point out the absurdity of claiming and "average" pitcher is worth $6m a year when WORSE and OLDER pitchers are earning DOUBLE that amount.

 

 

You just pointed to the league difference when he has an opposite split of what's expected. I never said the average pitcher wage was the same as the average position player wage. You use WAR in nearly every thread when evaluating a player and even said he was worth 3-4 wins. ERA is not the end all stat and neither is WAR. Jackson has been around the league a while now and he's not getting any better. His last 3 years he's posted a 4.10 ERA which is better than 4.40, but for me the changes aren't huge. Jackson has generally had a very high WHIP in addition to ERA and his SO/BB ratio has been good the past three years, but career wise unimpressive. The 23 year old Devil Ray season is a complete outlier, but other than that his career numbers have bounced around in the same inconsistent trend.

[edavis0308]

It's fun to have different views.and have a legit debate over a real possibility as an.acquisition the twins COULD make.

 

That being said...he has pitched better as his career has progressed, he's a solid yet not reliant strikeout pitcher, and he's still relatively young and has been durable. May I ask what you don't like about him? Is the disagreement here price tag alone? I would take him and something like 3/36 in a heartbeat. Anything under that I don't think is realistic, while I think you have a little room to overpay before the overpay gets uncomfortable.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

It's fun to have different views.and have a legit debate over a real possibility as an.acquisition the twins COULD make.

 

That being said...he has pitched better as his career has progressed, he's a solid yet not reliant strikeout pitcher, and he's still relatively young and has been durable. May I ask what you don't like about him? Is the disagreement here price tag alone? I would take him and something like 3/36 in a heartbeat. Anything under that I don't think is realistic, while I think you have a little room to overpay before the overpay gets uncomfortable.

 

It's definitely the price tag that bothers me. I don't see him as an elite pitcher that's worthy of what he'll be paid. The length of contract bothers me too. He's a 4 ERA guy and allows a lot batters to get on base. I just think there are/were other options that were slightly worse, but dramatically cheaper.

[snepp]

No one called him an elite pitcher, and he isn't going to get paid like one. I think you're underselling what average to slightly above average starters are worth and what they make.

[edavis0308]

I'm in the camp that if he puts up a 4 ERA with decent strikeouts for a full season, he's by far our best pitcher. Then he's a legit veteran opening day starter as opposed to livan, ponson, pavano, etc.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You can't say this:

I'm pretty sure the average pitcher salary isn't much more than 7 million a year.

 

And then this:

 

Last 3 years, Edwin Jackson has been an average pitcher. 100 ERA+

I wouldn't give him anything more than 7 million a year. Looking at a 3 year deal? Highest I'd go is 3yrs /19 Million Total.

 

And then claim that you're not saying that average pitchers are worth the MLB median wage.

 

And you're still using Jackson's career ERA in those quotes. His recent 4.10 ERA may not be much above his 4.4 career mark, but it is quite a bit better than the ~4.60 mark he was posting before he turned the corner at age 26. Using career stats of a guy in his late 20s is one of the worst forms of cherry picking. You're using rookie and early age seasons of a guy still in his prime. Just stop. You're weighting Jackson's age 20 season in 2004 the same as his age 28 season in 2012. If you're trying to use stats honestly to make a point, how do you justify that obvious miscalculation?

 

I don't see anyone here arguing that Jackson isn't a league average pitcher... But I do see a lot of people arguing that he's worth a hell of a lot more than $7m. And you don't need stats to see that. You merely need to look around and see guys like Dan Haren getting $13m in 2013.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

No one called him an elite pitcher, and he isn't going to get paid like one. I think you're underselling what average to slightly above average starters are worth and what they make.

 

There are people that want to give him 16-17 million a season. That sounds like elite money to me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There are people that want to give him 16-17 million a season. That sounds like elite money to me.

 

Who want to do this? I haven't seen them. $16-17m is Anibal Sanchez money.

[edavis0308]

There are people that want to give him 16-17 million a season. That sounds like elite money to me.

 

Person. Not people. Let's not get carried away. You realize if we take his 12M salary last year.. the 16-17 is closer than your 6-7 a year you want to give him right? You should compare Correia stats compared to Jackson.

[edavis0308]

Who want to do this? I haven't seen them. $16-17m is Anibal Sanchez money.

second post of the thread. It was a comment saying "i wouldn't be pissed if they paid this a year for three years". I believe.

[snepp]

There are people that want to give him 16-17 million a season. That sounds like elite money to me.

 

One person is "people?"

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

second post of the thread. It was a comment saying "i wouldn't be pissed if they paid this a year for three years". I believe.

 

Yes, but then another went on to justify that insane amount. Maybe just saying it was better than 7. I think 7 is closer to 10-12 than 16 is though.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Should have posted separately

It seems like too many people group Jackson together with Marcum, when Marcum is miles beyond Jackson. I really only used career ERA to show names, as in "Would you give this player that contract at any point in their career?" and I'll say the thinking was flawed on that. Some players consistently average the stats between mediocre Jackson and decent Jackson, so they aren't worth as much. I'll submit that Jackson is 10-12million range and that I've changed my mind some. The shock of 16-17 a year really did make me think people were overrating him (and that still is) so I wanted to go the other way and I went too far. That's not to say I'd ever sign Jackson for 3 years and that money since he's still extremely unpredictable. The Twins don't need him past 2014, because I think there will be much better options in the farm and free agency.

[Riverbrian]

If this rebuild happens like we expect it to... We will be very young in 2014 and 2015. With a young roster almost certain to come... There will be a lot of salaries in the minimum range along with Joe Mauer.

 

In consideration of where the salary appears to be heading... And the money we already have off the books... I see no problem in offering a ridiculous contract for Marcum or Jackson. I don't care what they pay... Just land a pitcher that can contribute in 2013 and 2015.

 

We could do this in my opinion and still have money available for an additional free agent or two down the road if the team looks like a Free agent could bring a championship.

 

Just one... That's all I ask... Marcum or Jackson is what's left.

[darin617]

If this rebuild happens like we expect it to... We will be very young in 2014 and 2015. With a young roster almost certain to come... There will be a lot of salaries in the minimum range along with Joe Mauer.

 

In consideration of where the salary appears to be heading... And the money we already have off the books... I see no problem in offering a ridiculous contract for Marcum or Jackson. I don't care what they pay... Just land a pitcher that can contribute in 2013 and 2015.

 

We could do this in my opinion and still have money available for an additional free agent or two down the road if the team looks like a Free agent could bring a championship.

 

Just one... That's all I ask... Marcum or Jackson is what's left.

 

And Brett Myers.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

And then claim that you're not saying that average pitchers are worth the MLB median wage.

 

I thought I said average pitchers are worth the average MLB pitcher's salary? Possibly a typo, but I'm pretty sure I never said that.

[edavis0308]

I'm in the camp that if you can get Jackson at 3/45.. you take it. You're getting a durable pitcher with strikeouts in his prime years. 3/48 I wouldn't kill the team for. We have money and we need a top of the rotation starter. I'm not giving that money to Marcum. He's got elbow issues. You get a deal on him for cheaper, its a whole different story.

 

Edit. A pitcher with an ERA around 4.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I'm in the camp that if you can get Jackson at 3/45.. you take it. You're getting a durable pitcher with strikeouts in his prime years. 3/48 I wouldn't kill the team for. We have money and we need a top of the rotation starter. I'm not giving that money to Marcum. He's got elbow issues. You get a deal on him for cheaper, its a whole different story.

 

Sarcasm or serious?

[DaveW]

I don't understand all the Edwin Jackson love, the dude just has never been that great. He isn't terrible, but is basically a back end rotation type guy (albeit much better then what we currently have) I would give him 3/30 but not a whole lot more (maybe 3/33 if I was pressed)

 

FWIW: He posted pretty close to Carl Pavano (when healthy) numbers in his ERA/ xFIP/ IP/ WAR etc (especially when you factor in his AL vs NL numbers)

 

I wouldn't give someone like that 15 mil a year.

[edavis0308]

That depends. In reality or your Bizzaro world? You realize how much money an oft injured Dan Haren got this year....right???

 

You need to get over the fact that this guy isn't a scrub. Guys that throw decent ERAs with strikeouts and durability cost money.. you can't get them at the Kevin Correia special discount price...right?

[Riverbrian]

I don't understand all the Edwin Jackson love, the dude just has never been that great. He isn't terrible, but is basically a back end rotation type guy (albeit much better then what we currently have) I would give him 3/30 but not a whole lot more (maybe 3/33 if I was pressed)

 

FWIW: He posted pretty close to Carl Pavano (when healthy) numbers in his ERA/ xFIP/ IP/ WAR etc (especially when you factor in his AL vs NL numbers)

 

I wouldn't give someone like that 15 mil a year.

 

I agree... But I think he's getting better. I remember watching him pitch for Tampa and thinking this guy is just a thrower hoping to get lucky. I saw him again with Chicago and he was much better... Ive watched him a few times since then and hes been good each time and His recent numbers do suggest that he has figured some stuff out.

[DaveW]

That depends. In reality or your Bizzaro world? You realize how much money an oft injured Dan Haren got this year....right???

 

You need to get over the fact that this guy isn't a scrub. Guys that throw decent ERAs with strikeouts and durability cost money.. you can't get them at the Kevin Correia special discount price...right?

 

Over paying for mediocrity is never a good idea. 3/33 is the right number for a guy like Jackson, 3/45 is not. I'd much rather they keep that 15 million free in 2014/2015 and just go into this season and commit to a rebuild. Keep that 15 mil to go after a front of the rotation guy in the future. Or just sign Marcum for less money anyways (who has a good shot to put up superior numbers)

[DaveW]

I agree... But I think he's getting better. I remember watching him pitch for Tampa and thinking this guy is just a thrower hoping to get lucky. I saw him again with Chicago and he was much better... Ive watched him a few times since then and hes been good each time and His recent numbers do suggest that he has figured some stuff out.

 

Yeah, I mean I just see him as a pretty inconsistent pitcher, maybe I am wrong. I don't think he is bad, I just don't think he is worth over paying for (where as I think a guy like Sanchez or Haren would have been worth over paying for)