MIN 4, CHC 0: Twins Down Darvish, Shutout Cubs

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Almost impossible. The Twins tie the first tiebreaker with the Sox and lose the second, so the Twins have to win the division outright.

 

Laying an egg in that final Sox game really hurt, as they'd be in a good position to win the division (one game back and the tie would go to the Twins).

B-Ref gives us a 23.5% chance at the division; Fangraphs, 10.7%. (Does make me wonder if B-Ref is correctly handling the tiebreaker?)

 

If we win out (5-0), we'd need the White Sox to finish 3-4 or worse.

 

If we lose just one game (4-1), we'd need the White Sox to finish 2-5 or worse.

 

It's not easy, but it's definitely easier the more games we win! (As are most things, except high draft picks. )

[stringer bell]

For the week I will become a Cleveland and Chicago Cubs fan. I'd also like to see the Reds knocked out of playoff contention in the four days before the Twins play them. If Cleveland can take three or four from the Sox, I think there's a chance. Incidentally, a three-way tie with Cleveland and the Sox goes to the Twins.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

B-Ref gives us a 23.5% chance at the division; Fangraphs, 10.7%. (Does make me wonder if B-Ref is correctly handling the tiebreaker?)

 

If we win out (5-0), we'd need the White Sox to finish 3-4 or worse.

 

If we lose just one game (4-1), we'd need the White Sox to finish 2-5 or worse.

 

It's not easy, but it's definitely easier the more games we win! (As are most things, except high draft picks. )

Yeah, that B-Ref percentage seems way too high. FG is pretty close to where I'd expect it to be, though I expected more in the 6-8% range eyeballing it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What's the play on Arraez and Jeffers? Need to get Arraez back this week to get in some ABs if he's going to be in a position to play in the post season. Gonzalez has filled in ok -some big hits, but not so great overall - and is more valuable helping out than playing every day. 

 

Catching is going to be interesting. In this year of small sample sizes, Jeffers has looked the best of the three by far at the plate, and he seems like as good behind th plate as the other two to my untrained eye. it may be too late for Garver to get going and if he gets the ABs, then Jeffers goes stale. Tandem of Jeffers and Avila for the post season? Maybe give Garver some 1B/DH time the last week so see if he can get the bat going? Jeffers catches 3 of the last 5? 

Jeffers is viewed as the best defensive catcher in the entire organization so your untrained eye is mostly correct.

 

As for who catches the bulk of the remaining games, I believe Garver needs the reps the most. He has the most immediate upside at the plate and needs to be as comfortable as possible heading into the postseason.

 

I'd use Jeffers as the backup and probably bench Avila for the rest of the season and use only in a "break glass in case of emergency" situation.

 

As nice as it'd be to win out every game in the regular season, having a healthy, good, and in-the-groove roster in the postseason means a lot more.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For the week I will become a Cleveland and Chicago Cubs fan. I'd also like to see the Reds knocked out of playoff contention in the four days before the Twins play them. If Cleveland can take three or four from the Sox, I think there's a chance. Incidentally, a three-way tie with Cleveland and the Sox goes to the Twins.

Sounds like you'll also be Brewers fan -- they play the Reds for a 3 game series starting tonight. The Reds and Brewers are in a virtual tie (with San Francisco) for the 8th and final playoff spot in the NL, but the Reds have an advantage in that they've already played 2 more games than their competitors -- Milwaukee and San Fran don't get any off days this week AND they each have to play a doubleheader on Friday (against some decent teams in St. Louis and San Diego, respectively).

 

Looks like the Twins might miss Bauer -- he's scheduled to start Wednesday vs Milwaukee. We could possibly get Mahle, Castillo, and Gray all on regular rest, though, and they've all been solid this year.

[rdehring]

 

Yesterday, even when the Twins were winning the game, they were talking more about how good Darvish was and about the Yankees than about the game itself

I recall a couple times last night when I had to look real hard to see which Twin was at bat. Seemed they would go on and on about the Cubs and whatever for extended periods. Hopefully, the Twins are aware and that helps put a nice big chip on their shoulders come next week.

[rdehring]

 

Sounds like you'll also be Brewers fan -- they play the Reds for a 3 game series starting tonight. The Reds and Brewers are in a virtual tie (with San Francisco) for the 8th and final playoff spot in the NL, but the Reds have an advantage in that they've already played 2 more games than their competitors -- Milwaukee and San Fran don't get any off days this week AND they each have to play a doubleheader on Friday (against some decent teams in St. Louis and San Diego, respectively).

 

Looks like the Twins might miss Bauer -- he's scheduled to start Wednesday vs Milwaukee. We could possibly get Mahle, Castillo, and Gray all on regular rest, though, and they've all been solid this year.

Booooo, missing Bauer will be terrible. Really wanted to see Kepler hit a few home runs off the guy. I am assuming that the streak of home runs in consecutive at bats isn't ongoing, is it?

[puckstopper1]

 

Looks like the Twins might miss Bauer -- he's scheduled to start Wednesday vs Milwaukee. We could possibly get Mahle, Castillo, and Gray all on regular rest, though, and they've all been solid this year.

That is unfortunate that the Twins will miss Bauer. 

 

They are on a roll against Cy Young contenders, beating Bieber, Giolito, Plesac and Darvish in the past few weeks. 

 

Those 4 starters have 9 loses total this season, and the Twins are responsible for 5 of them!

 

Makes me wondering if facing Cole in the playoffs will be such a bad thing after all....