Article: Is The Window Open For Another Twins Trade?

[aboveaveragejoe]

If the Twins can get a top 50 prospect or even two top 100 prospects for Morneau now or at the trade deadline they should pull the trigger. However, if there isn't this level of interest in him I suggest they hold on to him for two reasons. 1 - keep a competitive team (as much as possible in the current situation) to keep fan interest in the team. 2 - Give him a 1 year qualifying offer after the season (roughly 13 million) and if he signs a multi year deal else where the Twins still get a high draft pick for him. If he takes the offer, the Twins have one more year with little risk while they start bringing up the young talent from the minors and see where the team stands before deciding on Morneau's future in MN.

[Mike Sixel]

Let's just be honest, they are not even trying to be competitive. Just trade him and pocket the money and be honest about who you really are....

[weinshie]

I would think the Rangers would have much more interest in Mauer: they need a pure hitter who can catch and play 1b. And Mauer might net Profar and a SP prospect. I love Joe Baseball, but let's be honest, he's injury prone and, at Target Field, he's got little power; his defensive skills have already eroded (you can run on him now) and his contract is an albatross to a rebuilding team.

 

Curious to hear what other fans think of letting Joe go....

[CDog]

Curious to hear what other fans think of letting Joe go....

 

There are about a million threads (number approximated) either completely devoted to the topic or at least touching on it via tangents. So you can find out fairly easily.

[kryptik]

My feeling is Morneau and Willingham are both going to be moved before next trade deadline.

 

Willingham probably moves first because his contract is great and his numbers aren't in all likelihood going to get better, his value is as high as it is going to be.

 

TR will wait on pulling the trigger on a Morneau deal until the deadline I bet, doesn't want to alienate fans the first half of the season. If we are losing Target Field won't have a lot of fans for the 2nd half anyway so the negative PR of trading away Morneau will be muted.

 

I think we'll be lucky to stay below 90 losses next year but hopefully we can continue to draft well and keep building the system.

[Rosterman]

Willingham is an attractive chip/ If he can come out of the gate pulling his average stats, he'll be a wonderful trading chip because of the 2014 contract remains.

 

You have to ask these questions on Morneau:

 

Can Parmelee play first as well and put up respectble numbers. If Parmlee moves to first, who plays in right.

 

If you do trade Willingham, you are stacking the outfield with three prospects now who will learn on the job. Good or bad.

 

Morneau being traded this winter does free up salary. What do you do with this salary.

 

Trading Morneau (and possibly Willingham later) screws up he line-up. Would Mauer be the first guy to walk 500 times in a season. Does he become the first to swing at an intentional walk pitch and homer?

 

Morneau is more valuable to a team now, because if he has a halfway decent season (not a super season) they can offer him a contract and keep him or get a prospect in return. That could be a possibility. If they trade for him mid-season, the lost that control.

 

Is there anyway the Twin front office would consider signing Morneau for a 2-3 extension and at what price, right now, today. $7 million a year? $10 million a year. A 2-year plus a third option? Again, would that money be better spent elsewhere and we forget about Parmelee in the longterm and leave him to smoulder-out in right. Would that money be spent elsewhere on something more rewarding to the team.

 

The Twins are in a mess. They can throw money at players and still come in last place in the division. Maybe not lose 90 games, but still look up from the downside.

 

As fans, we look at three things:

 

Prospects can be fun and exciting to watch play, but they can flame out or shine. You don't know until you see them play. Do you bring guys up "before they might be ready" or let them get extensive seasoning.

 

If you have $100 million, are you expected to spend it. Because sure don't see it being held over and overspent in a future season. And what is it spent on...more prospects, aging veterans, overpaying nothingness. Man, let's make the Twins open a savings account...at some bank other than Marquette.

 

At some point, no one is untouchable. Mauer is the hometown kid, but he IS a liability. He's a light slugging/high average catcher who may not be catching half the games as his time wears on. As a catcher, he is extremely valuable. As a 1B he is Doug Mientkiewicz. As a third baseman

he is...no one knows. As a DH he is Paul Molitor light. Morneau COULD have health issues, or he just becomes another team favorite going elsewhere. We cried about no Cuddyer and Nathan last year. Hell, we keep Morneau and then he declares free agency and signs for someone at a bargain rate in 2014 and we cry foul. A new favorite will come along. If you lose with the oldtimers, you'll lose with the new kids.

 

If the Twins go into rebuilding mode, is it still to late to deep-six Gardy and Anderson and just start over?

[Brock Beauchamp]

At some point, no one is untouchable. Mauer is the hometown kid, but he IS a liability. He's a light slugging/high average catcher who may not be catching half the games as his time wears on. As a catcher, he is extremely valuable. As a 1B he is Doug Mientkiewicz. As a third baseman he is...no one knows. As a DH he is Paul Molitor light.

 

Dude, you are seriously underselling Mauer's ability. "Doug Mientkiewicz"? "Paul Molitor light"?

 

Mientkiewicz had two seasons that were almost as good as Mauer's 2012, which was a slight disappointment compared to previous seasons and you could see Joe struggling to get his legs under him early in the season and then peaking as the season progressed.

 

Molitor had an OBP of over .400 three times in his career. Mauer has already done it five times and he's not even 30 yet. I'd say that Molitor is a pretty good comp for Mauer with Joe being the better OBP guy and Molitor slugging higher. Overall, right now their careers are pretty similar, though Paul seemed to keep getting better with age. We'll see how Joe does in his early 30s. Either way, you could make the argument that Joe is the better hitter than Paul... and he's certainly not "Paul Molitor light".

 

It baffles me how Twins fans continually underestimate just how ****ing good Joe Mauer is at the game of baseball. He's in "top five hitting catchers of all time" territory. What do some of you expect from the poor guy? Water into wine? Walking on water?

[CDog]

Dude, you are seriously underselling Mauer's ability. "Doug Mientkiewicz"? "Paul Molitor light"?

 

Mientkiewicz had two seasons that were almost as good as Mauer's 2012, which was a slight disappointment compared to previous seasons and you could see Joe struggling to get his legs under him early in the season and then peaking as the season progressed.

 

Molitor had an OBP of over .400 three times in his career. Mauer has already done it five times and he's not even 30 yet. I'd say that Molitor is a pretty good comp for Mauer with Joe being the better OBP guy and Molitor slugging higher. Overall, right now their careers are pretty similar, though Paul seemed to keep getting better with age. We'll see how Joe does in his early 30s. Either way, you could make the argument that Joe is the better hitter than Paul... and he's certainly not "Paul Molitor light".

 

It baffles me how Twins fans continually underestimate just how ****ing good Joe Mauer is at the game of baseball. He's in "top five hitting catchers of all time" territory. What do some of you expect from the poor guy? Water into wine? Walking on water?

 

I thought maybe I was mis-remembering how well Mientkiewicz hit, so I went and looked. I spent most of the time just shaking my head in wonder, while thinking essentially the words that Brock wrote here.

[Shane Wahl]

Absolutely trade him now or at the deadline. The Rangers are a good fit, but they might be cautious about handing Profar the SS job by trading Elvis away. They might make more sense at the deadline. Of course, if they would willing to part with Olt, then take it.

[Shane Wahl]

Isn't the most apt Mauer-as-1B comparison John Olerud? By far?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Isn't the most apt Mauer-as-1B comparison John Olerud? By far?

 

That'd be my choice though Mauer is a slightly better average guy and slightly down in slugging.

[BigVin]

Willingham will never have more value then he has now. TRADE HIM! I understand that we could possibly contend this year, but that would require everyone to stay healthy, and our Starting Pitching to do a 180. Not sure I see that happening this year.

 

Trade Willingham and Morneau, and build for the future!

 

I'd rather be good for years then maybe 1 year.

[Mauerpower]

Hey, Bill Smith did that. Traded Garza for a Young and Ramos in a win-now trade.

 

That was a stupid trade. I would love to have Garza right now.

[daveha]

They better hurry. Adam Laroche wants a three-year contract and it appears the Washington Nationals are standing firm at two.

[Shane Wahl]

That'd be my choice though Mauer is a slightly better average guy and slightly down in slugging.

 

Yeah, I commented without looking and then looked and realized that Olerud slugged higher and batted lower. Everything else is pretty much the same. AND WAY CLOSER than the Dougie and Kendall comparisons bandied about over the past year+.

[jmlease1]

Trade him and continue to lay the foundation for a competitive team in 2014. I'd try to find a taker for Willingham as well.

 

Yes, let's get rid of as many proven MLB hitters as we can!

 

I'm not diametrically opposed to trading Morneau if we get a good return, but this isn't basketball where tanking a season and clearing all your "cap space" sets you up for a quick return to winning. It's not easy to find hitters capable of carrying a team, drawing people to the ballpark, etc. And while the Twins have some hitters with the potential to do that coming up through the minors, right now they're unproven and several of them could easily bust.

 

How much of a return would we get on Morneau, who is in the last year of his contract and has an injury history? I'd argue he's worth more to the Twins batting 5th, keeping the offense a quality one, and bridging the gap to the next generation of hitters than a couple of marginal A-Ball prospects. If someone wants to pay up for Morneau you listen but this isn't a guy you salary dump.

 

Willingham brings in more, with 2 years at a great price coming off a career year...but how long have the Twins been searching for this kind of RH power bat? Price would have to be awfully high to consider it.

 

No one should be truly untouchable on this roster, but we're starting to talk about players that don't make as much sense to deal as Span & Revere were. Both were younger players with even better contract situations playing positions in demand...and there are Twins fans suggesting that neither minor-league pitcher are top of the rotation starters! Would the return for Morneau & Willingham be worth the truly awful team the Twins would put on the field in 2013?

 

How many people would crush the Twins for getting Target Field and pocketing the money then? How badly would attendance crater? How attractive would this be as a free agent destination? How desperately would we be relying on the minors to produce stars?

 

The twins are taking a risk by dealing Span AND Revere that Hicks will be ready sooner rather than later, but it's a reasonable one, especially since Parmelee needed a spot to play and it brought back some high end arms that aren't 3 years away from getting a shot. Unless a deal for Morneau (or Willingham) brings back a middle infield bat that's relatively close as well, it's probably not going to end up being a very good deal for the team from both an economic standpoint and from a team-building one.

[ThePuck]

Isn't the most apt Mauer-as-1B comparison John Olerud? By far?

 

How about Carew? Oh wait, Mauer gets him in OBP AND SLG%...

[ThePuck]

It baffles me how Twins fans continually underestimate just how ****ing good Joe Mauer is at the game of baseball. He's in "top five hitting catchers of all time" territory. What do some of you expect from the poor guy? Water into wine? Walking on water?

 

Exactly. 3 time batting champ (no AL catcher had even one before him...no other catcher has 3). Has an MVP. 1st AL player since 1980 to led the AL in BA/OBP/SLG% (only catcher to ever do it). . Had a year this year right along career averages and led the major leagues in OBP. Hits great with RISP.

[Pjmcnally]

Under most circumstances, the idea of asking a team to absorb $14M for a 31-year-old with injury issues may be a tall task

 

The Twins shouldn't try to get rid of Morneau's contract. We are not going to be competitive this year so the money saved wont matter. The Twins should offer to pay part of the contract and in return ask for more value back from whatever team they try to trade with.

[Texas Mike]

The Twins are in a catch 22 when it comes to Mauer. The fan base will revolt if there is a trade, but his salary limits what else the team can do. There is also a catch 22 when it comes to trading him. The only justification for trading Mauer is getting a mother load back in return. But teams will not give a motherload for an "aging" catcher and if he moves positions his value diminishes.

 

As for dreams of trading for Andrus or Profar---dream on. We do not have what it takes to obtain either one.

[Mike Sixel]

His salary limits what they can do because they have set an arbitrary limit on their payroll....irrespective of new revenue next year.

[Kwak]

The biggest obstacle is not Mauer's salary or payroll in general--it's that the Twins are a bad team that are going to lose early and often this year and from the perspective of players and their agents even longer. The evidence of Sanchez shopping his CUBS offer to the team that "insulted him" is another example of the preference for players to be on a winner rather than a loser. Ryan was quoted as saying "...can't even give my money away..." is another example of said issue. Until the Twins develop a new core that can win consistently they will continue to fight the issue of being shunned by free agents (unless they make a substatially higher offer than the others). Unless we know what is being offered for a trade of Morneau (or anyone else for that matter) it is simply "beer-talk" to say trade him/don't trade him. I firmly believe that if the Twins keep Morneau for all of 2013 and make the qualifying offer for hi services for 2014 that Morneau will reject said offer and be signed for even more money by another team yielding an extra draft pick. Unless the Twins get more value than said "draft-pick" they should keep him--but I also firmly believe that there will be at least one offer that will be better than said "draft-pick" and his BB services for 2013. I encourage others to view that 2012 season's of other 1B (AL) and compare to Morneau's and I believe that you will see that there is no need to compensate a trading partner for his 2013 services. Risk? It's a 1 year contract--and all 1B have the same risk of injury over the season. Let the other teams used it for leverage--then reject their position. I hope the Twins rebuild quickly and when they do they show that they have learned their lesson of failing to add to a strong team (in the 2000's) to win a WS. A MLB team should not be operated like an office building.

[Lonestar]

Some things to consider:

 

Morneau and Parmelee are essentially redundant.

 

The Dodgers reportedly preferred Morneau to Gonzalez. They gave up a lot of talent and took on a ton of bad contracts to get Gonzalez. There is some demand for him.

 

Morneau is healthy now. There is a non-zero risk that he won't be healthy at the trade deadline.

 

The Twins have many other needs besides pitching. Like SS, 2B, and LF (assuming Willingham DH's or is traded).

 

The Twins can eat some or all of his contract.

 

There is a possibility the Twins can resign him for 2013. If they want to.

[Jack Torse]

superb article

[lee_the_twins_fan]

The Twins are NOT going to trade Mauer. Mauer has a no trade clause, and he won't want to go anywhere. I don't think they'll trade Morneau or Willingham either. They're done trading, for now. Hopefully they will sign a really good starting pitcher, or two.*

[diehardtwinsfan]

Dude, you are seriously underselling Mauer's ability. "Doug Mientkiewicz"? "Paul Molitor light"?

 

Mientkiewicz had two seasons that were almost as good as Mauer's 2012, which was a slight disappointment compared to previous seasons and you could see Joe struggling to get his legs under him early in the season and then peaking as the season progressed.

 

Molitor had an OBP of over .400 three times in his career. Mauer has already done it five times and he's not even 30 yet. I'd say that Molitor is a pretty good comp for Mauer with Joe being the better OBP guy and Molitor slugging higher. Overall, right now their careers are pretty similar, though Paul seemed to keep getting better with age. We'll see how Joe does in his early 30s. Either way, you could make the argument that Joe is the better hitter than Paul... and he's certainly not "Paul Molitor light".

 

It baffles me how Twins fans continually underestimate just how ****ing good Joe Mauer is at the game of baseball. He's in "top five hitting catchers of all time" territory. What do some of you expect from the poor guy? Water into wine? Walking on water?

 

yeah this... the only disapointment in my mind is that Mauer didn't play as many games behind theplate as I would have liked. As a catcher, he is one of the best of all time. Those numbers don't scream HOF at first, but they are at C. Having someone that gives you that much of a leg up at a key position like that is one of the big reasons why the Twins were competive the second half of the last decade.

[diehardtwinsfan]

A few things... If 2013 is the goal, then trading Morneau will hurt us offensively. I'm fairly certain Mastro can match Revere's numbers and Parmalee should be able to out do Span from the offensive side of things. Trading Morneau removes an .800 OPS and potential .900 OPS from the lineup with nothing to replace it with. I'm fine with trading Morneau for the right price, but at this point, you are are calling up at least one of Hicks/Arcia (possibly both) and I'm not certain either are ready. Trading Morneau and Willingham means your OF consists of Hicks, Arcia, and Benson. Benson is definitely not ready.

 

I suspect that the Willingham/Morneau trades will happen at the deadline as the Twins will get a chance to gage who of Arcia/Hicks/Benson are ready to take over and who needs more seasoning. If Mauer spends more time behind the plate, I could see Morneau getting an extension to play more DH...

 

Waiting on both potentially heightens the return and gives the Twins a chance to see who can step in. I coudl see the Twins trading Morneau for an offer they couldn't refuse (like Profar or something like that), but I don't see that happening.

[ThePuck]

yeah this... the only disapointment in my mind is that Mauer didn't play as many games behind theplate as I would have liked. As a catcher, he is one of the best of all time. Those numbers don't scream HOF at first, but they are at C. Having someone that gives you that much of a leg up at a key position like that is one of the big reasons why the Twins were competive the second half of the last decade.

 

There were a few factors as to why he's didn't pay at catcher as much as he usually does. Morny needed rest recovering from the concussion. They told him that if he wore himself out, he could see the symptoms resurface. So they DH him or completely rest him, especially earlier in the season. Mauer was the best choice to fill in for him...and the decision was made even easier by actually having a real backup in Doumit. And then, you know, Butera needed his time too once Gardy got his 3rd catcher on board. I believe that from 2005-2010, only one player whose primary position is catcher played more total games and none had more plate appearances overall. Over the years, if Gardy didn't have the DH available, Mauer would have seen even more time behind the plate. It's important to remember though, that catchers just don't play 162. The position is too physically demanding. The most games started last year at catcher was 136...by an NL catcher.

[Brandon]

Morneau is not going to be traded unless a team overpays for him with prospects. Parmelee hasn't shown that he can consistantly hit up here which is what is keeping him from being redundant to Morneau at this point. With a full season next year we will see. Keeping Morneau until we see what Parmelee will do and if he can make adjustments here is risk management. Keep in mind that Morneau likes it here and would rather play here all things being =. (don't have to try to convince him to take our money). So I imagine that after next season when May and Meyer get a taste of the big leagues and he can look past 2014 as a reloading year, I bet Morneau would sign a 2 or 3 year extension as long as the money is reasonable. There's value in that for us. So i would think that to trade Morneau would require a better than market trade offer from the team thats going to get him.

 

So whats the best way to plan the future of our offense at 1B, C, DH, RF and LF looks like an interesting post for someone to write about. Players in this equation at the moment include Willingham, Morneau, Mauer, Doumitt, Parmelee, then add Arcia, Sano, and more numerous OF prospects. I get the feeling Parmelee is the one who gets traded once he shows he can hit up here. imagine what we can ask for a power hitter who doesn't cost much in a trade. (part of a package for David Price next offseason?) (see will Myers return)

[Mike Sixel]

Like the Twins would pay David Price. Ryan has stated very clearly that you cannot have 3-4 players earning half the salary of the team. Keeping Morneau and Mauer and adding Price puts you well over that limit.